FF/FG/Green Next Government

Chiparus

The Shinners will easily win a By-election- mostly a protest vote - might be better for FF as it could split the SF vote in future GE.

blanch152

Chiparus wrote: »

The Shinners will easily win a By-election- mostly a protest vote - might be better for FF as it could split the SF vote in future GE.

Sinn Fein will likely top the poll in the bye-election.

It will be interesting to see what happens with transfers. Will it be like the election aftermath whereby they finished with the highest vote, but no other party wanted to touch them or go near them. If Fianna Fail finish third, which I think is likely, their transfers will determine the outcome.

Bannasidhe

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Oh gosh, sorry.
I was looking for something to base how a new, poll might go.
You said FG should win it, what made you think that?
I said likely FF or SF originally and more than likely SF if the FF vote has collapsed, but you chose FG as being the favourites even though they're not yours.
You're basically talking yourself into an argument with me for something I haven't actually said, just based my assessment on the GE results.
And like it or not FF got the biggest vote.

No, I said FG should/could win it if - big IF - they find the right (pardon the pun) candidate. The FG vote hasn't gone away, there should still be enough to get one candidate over the line if they choose that candidate wisely. If they go with Buttimer I think that would be unwise. Them being 'mine' has nowt to do with it - it has to so with what support the party has in the constituency and the fact is they have enough to retain the seat - it's 'theirs' to lose. Plus there is the perception that FG have handled the CV19 crises well.

My argument was with you even suggesting FF could take a 3rd seat. Listening to people (and I come from a traditionally FF CSC family) FF will be lucky if they keep the 2 they have.

I think - and this is my opinion - McGrath's seat is the one that could be poached but there are caveats - has SF's vote share peaked (I suspect it may have)? O'Laoighaire is too new to have garnered enough notice to bring a 2nd SF candidate with him. I am not convinced there is enough support to get SF a 2nd seat but I could be wrong.

What happens to the Green vote that saw Bogue get so close to McGrath? She has been a vocal critic of the Greens going into gov and was suspended from the party - that is one issue. Will she run for the Greens now? And if she did - is that vote still there for the Greens? The party going into gov has not been popular at all in Cork.
As I said - I think if Bogue joined the SDs she could just about manage to take McGrath's seat. It would take a hell of a lot of work tho.

My prediction is that FF/FG/SF will have one seat each and the fight will be for the 2nd seat FF currently hold. I would love to see the SDs take it but they face an uphill battle.

Hawthorn Tree

It's only 1 seat folks. The other 3 TDs remain.

If Simon goes to Brussels, do people really see Buttimer (FG) replacing Simon after the Golfgate Elite fiasco? After what Dara Murphy did, I hope the people of Cork SC has some cop on.

It looks like a Green seat to lose (Lorna Bogue). She got 9.4% of FPV in 2020.

James Brown

Word on the street, [speculation based on a newspaper story]..

Varadkar knows more than anybody he has it coming as Big Phil 'plots revenge'
It is never a pleasant business, this taking down of a big beast in politics. Phil Hogan knows it more than anybody. He has stabbed a fair few in the back himself, all the while smiling to their face. The most nervous man in Ireland now is Leo Varadkar. Hogan suspects he had a hand in leaking to the media the garda commissioner's mobile phone misdemeanour juicy morsel.
Link

#snitchesgetstitches

Hogan making a false claim? Maybe but it doesn't look like all is well in house Fine Gael. A politician leaking such information can't be ethical? And why, (if) was Varadkar informed at all? In the eyes of the law surely he's just another citizen, mind they are all pretty cosy.

Hawthorn Tree

Bowie wrote: »

Word on the street, [speculation based on a newspaper story]..

Hogan making a false claim? Maybe but it doesn't look like all is well in house Fine Gael. A politician leaking such information can't be ethical?

It was Hogan that backed Leo for the leadership of FG. Otherwise it would most certainly have gone to Broken Record Simon.

blanch152

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

It's only 1 seat folks. The other 3 TDs remain.

If Simon goes to Brussels, do people really see Buttimer (FG) replacing Simon after the Golfgate Elite fiasco? After what Dara Murphy did, I hope the people of Cork SC has some cop on.

It looks like a Green seat to lose (Lorna Bogue). She got 9.4% of FPV in 2020.

At only 9.4% of FPV, how does she stay in the race when SF, FF and FG will all be ahead of her?

Hawthorn Tree

blanch152 wrote: »

At only 9.4% of FPV, how does she stay in the race when SF, FF and FG will all be ahead of her?

Name those FFG/SF candidates for me first. You know how a bye-election works?

It's 1 seat baby and she came 5th last time out by a country mile. Lorna is the fav.

Will the Clifden Elite party impact Buttimer? 100%

blanch152

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

Name those FFG/SF candidates for me first. You know how a bye-election works?

It's 1 seat baby and she came 5th last time out by a country mile. Lorna is the fav.

Will the Clifden Elite party impact Buttimer? 100%

Is there a Coveney to succeed Simon? That is the first place FG should look. The name itself should be sufficient to keep them in the hunt. Like it or not, people do vote on the name itself.

FF will have a bigger problem, but why not a solid councillor who can bring their vote with them. What about Mary Rose Desmond, assistant to Martin at one time, hardly a challenge to him, or Colm Kelleher? Mary Rose was only 100 votes behind Bogue in the locals, and she had Terry Shannon splitting the vote. Fergal Dennehy? Don't know him, but anything to the former TD?

Coming fifth leaves her fourth starting out in the race for the bye-election.

FF - 35.5
SF - 24.6
FG - 21.2
Greens - 9.4

That leaves her a long way back. She may also have a problem getting the nomination too, given her clashes with the leadership. While I would love to see another Green in the Dail, increasing the profile for the next general election would probably be the likely outcome.

Couldn't care less about who Sinn Fein put forward, but a convicted gun-runner or drug lord running for them wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to those who vote for them, so would expect them to also be ahead of the Greens. There just don't seem to be enough votes for her.

Bishop of hope

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

It's only 1 seat folks. The other 3 TDs remain.

If Simon goes to Brussels, do people really see Buttimer (FG) replacing Simon after the Golfgate Elite fiasco? After what Dara Murphy did, I hope the people of Cork SC has some cop on.

It looks like a Green seat to lose (Lorna Bogue). She got 9.4% of FPV in 2020.

I tried to explain that yesterday.
Bannasheide thinks its a complete reelection for all seats apparently.

Hawthorn Tree

blanch152 wrote: »

Is there a Coveney to succeed Simon? That is the first place FG should look. The name itself should be sufficient to keep them in the hunt. Like it or not, people do vote on the name itself.

FF will have a bigger problem, but why not a solid councillor who can bring their vote with them. What about Mary Rose Desmond, assistant to Martin at one time, hardly a challenge to him, or Colm Kelleher? Mary Rose was only 100 votes behind Bogue in the locals, and she had Terry Shannon splitting the vote. Fergal Dennehy? Don't know him, but anything to the former TD?

Coming fifth leaves her fourth starting out in the race for the bye-election.

FF - 35.5
SF - 24.6
FG - 21.2
Greens - 9.4

That leaves her a long way back. She may also have a problem getting the nomination too, given her clashes with the leadership. While I would love to see another Green in the Dail, increasing the profile for the next general election would probably be the likely outcome.

Couldn't care less about who Sinn Fein put forward, but a convicted gun-runner or drug lord running for them wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to those who vote for them, so would expect them to also be ahead of the Greens. There just don't seem to be enough votes for her.

Neither FF or FG ran a 3rd candidate in 2020. FF will be hoping a nobody from the council can take the Dail seat - very unlikely. FG will opt for Buttimer but given he was Clifden Elite and the 2 month shambles of a government, I believe he has no chance. SF might run a new candidate but I don't see a nobody winning in Cork.

Bogue is known and that FPV in 2020 gives her a superb chance.

Hawthorn Tree

Bishop of hope wrote: »

I tried to explain that yesterday.
Bannasheide thinks its a complete reelection for all seats apparently.

I think Blanch thought the same.

Highest FPV usually wins these things.

Bannasidhe

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

It's only 1 seat folks. The other 3 TDs remain.

If Simon goes to Brussels, do people really see Buttimer (FG) replacing Simon after the Golfgate Elite fiasco? After what Dara Murphy did, I hope the people of Cork SC has some cop on.

It looks like a Green seat to lose (Lorna Bogue). She got 9.4% of FPV in 2020.

Murphy was Cork North Central not South Central so honestly not as big a deal in a by election in CSC as you might think.

Bogue has been vocally critical of the Green Party going into gov and was, she claims, suspended for doing so. Her running as a Green is not a certainty by any means. If she did she would be running to be in govt as a TD having disagreed with her party going into gov a few short weeks ago and that would be a campaign rock to throw at her.

It was a 'Green' vote insofar as transfer left worked to their advantage. Not so sure that vote is still there for the Greens.

I really think it is FG's to lose - all depends on who they pick as a candidate.

Bannasidhe

Bishop of hope wrote: »

I tried to explain that yesterday.
Bannasheide thinks its a complete reelection for all seats apparently.

I have no idea what Bannasheide thinks but I think It's FG's to lose. It's 'their' seat.

I am disagreeing with you saying FF can win it. I explained why - you continued explaining why you thought FF could.
SF might pull it off...

Bannasidhe

Buttimer is FG not FF - apparently some people get confused about that.

StackSteevens

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

FF will opt for Buttimer but given he was Clifden Elite and the 2 month shambles of a government, I believe he has no chance.

Good call! It's very clear that you have your finger right on the pulse of Cork SC! On the basis of your analysis, I'm putting my mortgage on Bogue - to lose!

Hawthorn Tree

StackSteevens wrote: »

Good call! It's very clear that you have your finger right on the pulse of Cork SC! On the basis of your analysis, I'm putting my mortgage on Bogue - to lose!

My apologies. The Clifden Elite dinner has me confused. FG will opt for Buttimer but he is goosed. Thats FFG actually
Not even sure FF should bother with this one. FG will want their seat back.

Bishop of hope

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Murphy was Cork North Central not South Central so honestly not as big a deal in a by election in CSC as you might think.

Bogue has been vocally critical of the Green Party going into gov and was, she claims, suspended for doing so. Her running as a Green is not a certainty by any means. If she did she would be running to be in govt as a TD having disagreed with her party going into gov a few short weeks ago and that would be a campaign rock to throw at her.

It was a 'Green' vote insofar as transfer left worked to their advantage. Not so sure that vote is still there for the Greens.

I really think it is FG's to lose - all depends on who they pick as a candidate.

Sorry for the slip of the pen.
OK I respect your opinion BTW, but it's just that the GE vote doesn't support your conclusion given FG we're third.
It'd be a great win for FG if they got it but they shouldn't based on the last vote.
It is a one seat election and no party will run more than one candidate so the percentage vote for each party will go to their one candidate and one count should do it probably.

Edgware

Bannasidhe wrote: »

I have no idea what Bannasheide thinks but I think It's FG's to lose. It's 'their' seat.

I am disagreeing with you saying FF can win it. I explained why - you continued explaining why you thought FF could.
SF might pull it off...

But does O Laoghaire want another T.D. from Sinn Fein in the constituency? Cushy Butterfield wouldn't allow it in Dublin Central in case she lost the poll topper title

blanch152

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

I think Blanch thought the same.

Highest FPV usually wins these things.

Rubbish, I didn't think the same, as my post shows.

Again if you look at my last post where I set out the FPV for each party from the last general election

FF - 35.5
SF - 24.6
FG - 21.2
Greens - 9.4

it is a huge stretch to think that the Greens will be highest by FPV. Candidate selection by FF and FG will be crucial, and I put forward some ideas in that post.

blanch152

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

My apologies. The Clifden Elite dinner has me confused. FG will opt for Buttimer but he is goosed. Thats FFG actually
Not even sure FF should bother with this one. FG will want their seat back.

If it is so plainly obvious that Buttimer will lose, why would FG opt for him? Simon will want a Coveney in line to either mind the seat for him, or replace him in the long run. The question, which I don't know the answer to, is whether there are any likely Coveneys to run.

blanch152

Bannasidhe wrote: »

I have no idea what Bannasheide thinks but I think It's FG's to lose. It's 'their' seat.

I am disagreeing with you saying FF can win it. I explained why - you continued explaining why you thought FF could.
SF might pull it off...

You are most likely to be right.

The last two candidates will be Sinn Fein and whichever of the big parties stay ahead of each other. If the last two are SF and FG, it will be FF transfers to decide. There might be enough transfers from FF to keep SF ahead if they are already a good distance ahead of FG, but if FG have stayed ahead of SF, no contest, it will be FG.

Like you, I think it less likely that FF get ahead of FG, but if they did, FG transfers would definitely favour FF rather than SF, giving FF the seat.

Greens don't have a hope unless the votes of all three of the other parties collapse dramatically. In FPV terms, the lowest total to win in the four bye-elections in 2019 was the 24.1% for Ward in Dublin Mid-West. Going from 9.4% to c 25% looks to be too much of an ask for the Greens, especially when the candidate is not guaranteed selection, and even if she is selected, is not guaranteed party support from the centre.

Hawthorn Tree

blanch152 wrote: »

If it is so plainly obvious that Buttimer will lose, why would FG opt for him? Simon will want a Coveney in line to either mind the seat for him, or replace him in the long run. The question, which I don't know the answer to, is whether there are any likely Coveneys to run.

Give us a name so. Patrick is a CEO so very unlikely.

Who else do FG have in Cork SC with any kind of profile?

I still think Dara Murphy's antics will have an impact. I know he was in a different constituency but he is FG and was never sanctioned by Leo.

I now think Simon will not be the next commissioner. It will go to one of the ladies.

Bannasidhe

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

Give us a name so. Patrick is a CEO so very unlikely.

Who else do FG have in Cork SC with any kind of profile?

I still think Dara Murphy's antics will have an impact. I know he was in a different constituency but he is FG and was never sanctioned by Leo.

I now think Simon will not be the next commissioner. It will go to one of the ladies.

The FGers I know are saying they do not want Buttimer, Cllr Des Cahill would be their preferred candidate. He's very FG if you catch my drift so I can't see him getting any votes/transfers from the left/GP - but is he FF friendly? TBH I am hearing nothing from local FFers bar anger at their own party's performance so I honestly don't know.
People really are furious at FF and the Greens - FG not so much.

blanch152

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

Give us a name so. Patrick is a CEO so very unlikely.

Who else do FG have in Cork SC with any kind of profile?

I still think Dara Murphy's antics will have an impact. I know he was in a different constituency but he is FG and was never sanctioned by Leo.

I now think Simon will not be the next commissioner. It will go to one of the ladies.

I am not a FG member so I don't have a clue whether there are any more Coveneys, but I can see the benefit of one for them.

We can park this conversation until the name is announced because if you are correct and one of the ladies is announced, we could have a different outcome. Does anyone know who Mairead McGuinness nominated as her replacements on the ballot?

dundalkfc10

https://twitter.com/thejournal_ie/status/1300540702246535168?s=19

Jesus one rule for one, People have homes/family abroad, surely they get an exemption aswell

James Brown

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/thejournal_ie/status/1300540702246535168?s=19

Jesus one rule for one, People have homes/family abroad, surely they get an exemption aswell

Isn't it about containment? They could be negative, catch it on the plane and spread it all over because of their results.
As was thrown in the publics face, there comes a time were we must have individual responsibility. Asking for permission to flout health regulations is not on.
They certainly are not essential workers. What can they not do remotely, golf?

Chiparus

Bowie wrote: »

Isn't it about containment? They could be negative, catch it on the plane and spread it all over because of their results.
As was thrown in the publics face, there comes a time were we must have individual responsibility. Asking for permission to flout health regulations is not on.
They certainly are not essential workers. What can they not do remotely, golf?

They could catch it anywhere, the testing is bogus, as it can take 2 weeks post innoculation for the test to become positive.

Just because you test negative does not mean you do not have the virus.

Floppybits

Bowie wrote: »

Isn't it about containment? They could be negative, catch it on the plane and spread it all over because of their results.
As was thrown in the publics face, there comes a time were we must have individual responsibility. Asking for permission to flout health regulations is not on.
They certainly are not essential workers. What can they not do remotely, golf?

Have we not learned anything from going fiasco and that is that anyone who is part of the establishment such as politicians, judges, lobbyists are all immune from COVID. Everyone else is just a walking infection.

blanch152

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Jesus one rule for one, People have homes/family abroad, surely they get an exemption aswell

Yeah, I kind of guessed something like this was in the air from Clare Daly’s interview, it was clear she felt some entitlement to come and go from Ireland to Brussels without quarantining.