FF/FG/Green Next Government

blanch152

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Eamon O Cuiv ain't a happy camper over on Twitter about the 13% poll rating, he reckons the deal will make the situation even worse for FF.

No cabinet post for him from tricky Mickey I'd say.

There never was a chance of him getting a post, he knows that. He is yesterday’s man.

Danzy

blanch152 wrote: »

There never was a chance of him getting a post, he knows that. He is yesterday’s man.

He is but he is also correct in pointing out FF are in serious long term trouble. The figures of 13% support are worse when looked at deeper it's nearly all over 70s.

Martin may well be viewed as a FG Taoiseach by the electorate.

theguzman

Danzy wrote: »

He is but he is also correct in pointing out FF are in serious long term trouble. The figures of 13% support are worse when looked at deeper it's nearly all over 70s.

Martin may well be viewed as a FG Taoiseach by the electorate.

Fianna Fail are demographically dying off, FG still have deep reserves of support amongst middle class, farmers and people who oppose Sinn Fein.

Danzy

theguzman wrote: »

Fianna Fail are demographically dying off, FG still have deep reserves of support amongst middle class, farmers and people who oppose Sinn Fein.

Farmers are a small vote and widely spread.FF tend to have more of their vote as well.

Unfortunately SF have a generation of activists coming up that are ideological priests, largely middle class and poor at interaction with working class people and those who disagree.

That will damage them more than any old thing about the RA etc.

Truthvader

Fine Gael / Sinn Fein would destroy Fine Gael as they wpuld lose huge tracts of their vote forever if they ever let Sinn Fein near power. Most of their core see FG as the last sure defence against Sinn Fein. It almost defines them at this stage. Equally messy for Fianna Fail as if they let them in some of their core support could migrate to Sinn Fein on a "whats the point of Fianna Fail at all" basis. Its hard to see where the balance would go. Couldn't stomach Fine Gael so would probably dissipate on local independents of one hue or another. A Fine Gael Fianne Fail merger of the grown ups in each party seems the most stable solution but dont think there are enough adults in the room on either side. Left wing looks doomed for a while as no credible leadership or program anywhere beyond " tax the rich"

Richard Hillman

FF should have walked the last election but they just have absolutely zip leadership. Anybody with the remotest political nouse would have pulled the plug in Confidence and Supply to give them a head start on the upcoming election. They would have also made a point of every budget that all the good stuff was because of them.

Instead Martin just propped them up as long as he could, negotiated absolutely nothing out of them and in the end just came across as junior party of FG. Varadkar and Kenny ran rings around him for years. The 2 lads cuckholded him and had their way with the Taoiseacht position whislt he sat in the Corner watching and hoping he could have a turn.

I'm no fan of Varadkar but I just cannot have such a weakling as leader in Martin. Its looking like the EU are going to try and shaft us in the stimulus package coming up. Varadkar will allow because it furthers his ambition of an EU job, so we need somebody with a bit of backbone going into the EU to fight our corner.
We'll have Michael Martin who couldn't negotiate a nice word out of FG for 4 years, up against alpha male leaders of Hungary, Poland, Czech Rep scrambling for cash. And that's before he comes up against the leaders of the Big Countries of Germany, France, Italy and Spain. We don't have a chance.

Truthvader

blanch152 wrote: »

There never was a chance of him getting a post, he knows that. He is yesterday’s man.

Indeed. About 100 years too late. So infatuated with his Devalera legacy he has adopted the same policies that worked in 1920 for Dev. Will end up alone ranting about betrayel "as gaielge" and no-one will have any idea what he is talking about

The_Conductor

theguzman wrote: »

Fianna Fail are demographically dying off, FG still have deep reserves of support amongst middle class, farmers and people who oppose Sinn Fein.

There are plenty of middle class voters, farmers and people who oppose Sinn Féin- who also won't vote FG on a point of principle, and don't see any point in voting FF- they don't have any obvious home for their vote- other than the various one-issue independents around the place.

A further fragmentation of the vote- would seem obvious- unless you can get a resurgence for someone like Labour (which doesn't seem like it is likely to happen).

Truthvader

Truthvader wrote: »

Fine Gael / Sinn Fein would destroy Fine Gael as they wpuld lose huge tracts of their vote forever if they ever let Sinn Fein near power. Most of their core see FG as the last sure defence against Sinn Fein. It almost defines them at this stage. Equally messy for Fianna Fail as if they let them in some of their core support could migrate to Sinn Fein on a "whats the point of Fianna Fail at all" basis. Its hard to see where the balance would go. Couldn't stomach Fine Gael so would probably dissipate on local independents of one hue or another. A Fine Gael Fianne Fail merger of the grown ups in each party seems the most stable solution but dont think there are enough adults in the room on either side. Left wing looks doomed for a while as no credible leadership or program anywhere beyond " tax the rich"

Tbf if sf and dup.can/are expected to govern together,....its pure hypocrisy then to not allow them


Since its fairly obvious the greens arent gonna vote for the. PfG......deos this leave indos to prop ffg up (doomed to failure as shinners.will pick off indos).....or will mickey d use his powers to demand shinners and ffg sit down together?


Great oul craic all.the same

Truthvader

Richard Hillman wrote: »

FF should have walked the last election but they just have absolutely zip leadership. Anybody with the remotest political nouse would have pulled the plug in Confidence and Supply to give them a head start on the upcoming election. They would have also made a point of every budget that all the good stuff was because of them.

Instead Martin just propped them up as long as he could, negotiated absolutely nothing out of them and in the end just came across as junior party of FG. Varadkar and Kenny ran rings around him for years. The 2 lads cuckholded him and had their way with the Taoiseacht position whislt he sat in the Corner watching and hoping he could have a turn.

I'm no fan of Varadkar but I just cannot have such a weakling as leader in Martin. Its looking like the EU are going to try and shaft us in the stimulus package coming up. Varadkar will allow because it furthers his ambition of an EU job, so we need somebody with a bit of backbone going into the EU to fight our corner.
We'll have Michael Martin who couldn't negotiate a nice word out of FG for 4 years, up against alpha male leaders of Hungary, Poland, Czech Rep scrambling for cash. And that's before he comes up against the leaders of the Big Countries of Germany, France, Italy and Spain. We don't have a chance.

This is very harsh. Confidence and supply got us through a ****storm and Mehole can be thanked for that. Could have played politics but put the country first. Will get no thanks here and as many point out may have hastened the end of Fianna Fail . Think history will be kinder to him. It may well be that the old Fianna Fail / Fine Gael divide was log past its sell by date anyway

Truthvader

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Tbf if sf and dup.can/are expected to govern together,....its pure hypocrisy then to not allow them


Since its fairly obvious the greens arent gonna vote for the. PfG......deos this leave indos to prop ffg up (doomed to failure as shinners.will pick off indos).....or will mickey d use his powers to demand shinners and ffg sit down together?


Great oul craic all.the same

No-one will sit down with Sinn Fein. Agree about greens flakey as ****. Even if they do vote in favour they will have a hissy fit before Christmas and walk. Election seems inevitable

Loafing Oaf

theguzman wrote: »

Fianna Fail are demographically dying off, FG still have deep reserves of support amongst middle class, farmers and people who oppose Sinn Fein.

While I believe FG will consolidate the 'middle Ireland' anti-SF vote in the coming years, I don't think it's as predetermined as you suggest, and FF could still hold on to a chunk of it if it plays its cards right. "There is no fate but what we make ourselves" after all:P

Truthvader

Truthvader wrote: »

No-one will sit down with Sinn Fein. Agree about greens flakey as ****. Even if they do vote in favour they will have a hissy fit before Christmas and walk. Election seems inevitable

To best my knowledge.....mikey d can demand they sit down together as all avenues for government havnt been exhausted

Now its unlikely to work,but above can happen,

Great to see another election.....but its only likely to see fg take seats off ff and potentially lead to.another hung dail.imo

Think.il vote indo this time,or spoil the vote

is_that_so

Truthvader wrote: »

Fine Gael / Sinn Fein would destroy Fine Gael as they wpuld lose huge tracts of their vote forever if they ever let Sinn Fein near power. Most of their core see FG as the last sure defence against Sinn Fein. It almost defines them at this stage. Equally messy for Fianna Fail as if they let them in some of their core support could migrate to Sinn Fein on a "whats the point of Fianna Fail at all" basis. Its hard to see where the balance would go. Couldn't stomach Fine Gael so would probably dissipate on local independents of one hue or another. A Fine Gael Fianne Fail merger of the grown ups in each party seems the most stable solution but dont think there are enough adults in the room on either side. Left wing looks doomed for a while as no credible leadership or program anywhere beyond " tax the rich"

FG will not join SF in government. It would never get past a party vote anyway and they are too far apart on issues. Not sure why people indulge in this wishful thinking of a merger. Why not the SDs and Labour or SF and Labour? More often than not it's really a desire to see us turn into normal left right divide with a leftist party, like SF obviously as the alternative. Both wish to continue as entities and there is no way to get such a union past the party faithful and probably not past the electorate.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

To best my knowledge.....mikey d can demand they sit down together as all avenues for government havnt been exhausted

Now its unlikely to work,but above can happen,

Great to see another election.....but its only likely to see fg take seats off ff and potentially lead to.another hung dail.imo

Think.il vote indo this time,or spoil the vote

He can encourage them but he can't force parties who fundamentally disagree to form a government. If this fails to be approved there will be an election, probably in September. FG and FF might just try to cobble some Indos together but that doesn't look too hopeful either. Vote as you please but more Indos equals more chaos!

Truthvader

is_that_so wrote: »

FG will not join SF in government. It would never get past a party vote anyway and they are too far apart on issues. Not sure why people indulge in this wishful thinking of a merger. Why not the SDs and Labour or SF and Labour? More often than not it's really a desire to see us turn into normal left right divide with a leftist party, like SF obviously as the alternative. Both wish to continue as entities and there is no way to get such a union past the party faithful and probably not past the electorate.

Problem is Sinn Fein are not a bona fide party of the left- or at all IMO most other parties want nothing to do with them and no-one wants to be responsible for letting them in. Maybe extreme left such as PBP might put up with a bit of criminality to get the rich but thats about it. Hard to see how a functional left wing can form

is_that_so

is_that_so wrote: »

He can encourage them but he can't force parties who fundamentally disagree to form a government. If this fails to be approved there will be an election, probably in September. FG and FF might just try to cobble some Indos together but that doesn't look too hopeful either. Vote as you please but more Indos equals more chaos!

I do love a bit of chaos tbf

Great to see everyone tearing each other apart....think world needs more PBP and gemma odoherty types elected....keep.everyone interested and all.balls in the game

1st dalkey dalkey

That the Greens have a serious role is a result of the last election.

It is that election that will have a long lasting effect on Irish politics.

Whether they enter coalition or not, the decline in support for the traditional parties continues.

FF, FG and indeed Labour, the cornerstones of Irish politics for most of our history as a state, are all but a shadow of their former selves.

The Greens dilemma is merely a by product of this reality and no matter what decision they make, that reality will not change.

If I was a Green party member considering where to place my vote, I would have regard to the above truth.

The trend is your friend, as they say in investing.

Would I really want to be joining that trend of withering support?

Luckily for Meeehaaal, I am not a green party voting member.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

I do love a bit of chaos tbf

Great to see everyone tearing each other apart....think world needs more PBP and gemma odoherty types elected....keep.everyone interested and all.balls in the game

Yeah but it means multiple elections!

RandomViewer

I think Gove congratulating Mehole did a lot of harm,

FrancieBrady

RandomViewer wrote: »

I think Gove congratulating Mehole did a lot of harm,

They are similar politicians, both looking for a spine to send a shiver down.

Galwayguy35

Ryan seemed confident on the news that the Greens would vote for the agreement, but that could all be a front he is probably sh1tting it behind the scenes.

FrancieBrady

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Ryan seemed confident on the news that the Greens would vote for the agreement, but that could all be a front he is probably sh1tting it behind the scenes.

He was probably aware of this. Looking likely that they will go in.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1274772796556656642

Eric Cartman

ohh I'm sure it will be 'transformative' for rural Ireland alright. into council flats in the towns for yee, no jobs means no carbon.

Truthvader

Eric Cartman wrote: »

ohh I'm sure it will be 'transformative' for rural Ireland alright. into council flats in the towns for yee, no jobs means no carbon.

Rural Ireland is some kind of fantasy themepark for D4 Greens. Have it nice for them for the first two weeks in August

Topgear on Dave

Eric Cartman wrote: »

ohh I'm sure it will be 'transformative' for rural Ireland alright. into council flats in the towns for yee, no jobs means no carbon.

Happened already from what I can see in my home town in Cavan.

A lot of folks have either inherited or bought a half an acre a mile or two (or 3 or 4) outside the town.

Most of the half dozen estates of houses were council built too. This leaves a larger percentage than normal of council or rental accommodations in the town.

Its not ideal for the town.

Pa ElGrande

David Quinn: Swallowing the Green manifesto leaves a nasty taste (Sunday Times paywall) (alternate)

Why aren’t politicians, experts and commentators all over the airwaves asking these questions? Why do we get to hear only a narrow range of voices? That isn’t healthy. A radical green agenda is being imposed on us without our true consent. A properly democratic country would allow debate so that voters could then make informed choices. What we are being served up instead amounts to little more than Green Party propaganda.

source(Paywall)

IMHO - There is no thought to the effects on us beyond using the Greens as the patsys for distraction of the public. Aside from domestic concerns of the establishment like keeping Sinn Féin out of power the real motives are linked with money and influence from the EU. It is the ECB negative interest rates and bond buying that has preserved the power structure in Ireland when it should have been reformed in the wake of the 2008 crash. None of the current schemes proposed make sense in light of the protests in France, the Netherlands and elsewhere, they do make sense if there is money and power involved for the establishment, but paradoxically it sets up an unstable government that opens the door wider for Sinn Féin over the next 2 years.


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xl500

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

Jim O'Callaghan could potentially save FF if he takes the reins imo. He's probably the only FF TD I actually admire. They have a serious lack of talent and Lisa Chambers was a big loss to them in the last election. If she stops with the snide/arrogant remarks on twitter and halts her sketchy behaviour in general, she may have a chance of clawing her seat back from Alan Dillon in the next election. A week may be a long time in politics, but Mayo folk have long memories.

Do you mean the Guy that represented Gerry Adams

FrancieBrady

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Happened already from what I can see in my home town in Cavan.

A lot of folks have either inherited or bought a half an acre a mile or two (or 3 or 4) outside the town.

Most of the half dozen estates of houses were council built too. This leaves a larger percentage than normal of council or rental accommodations in the town.

Its not ideal for the town.

Admitting you are from Cavan? That's nearly as brave as admitting you are in FG!

bloodless_coup

Some Green lunatic on the Pat Kenny show saying that they want housing to be a basic human right.

Pat asked does that mean that anyone who just says they want a house will get one for free, she didn't deny or clarify. Just rambled on about how on the "doorsteps" everyone agreed with her.