India vs China border clashes

Yurt2

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476

India reporting 20 troops killed thus far. Serious escalation. We won't be hearing how many Chinese dead for obvious reasons of face.

Modi is brainfart prone Hindu nationalist, but the latest iteration of the CCP has a virulent nationalist streak surpassing even that.

The Whitehouse is brain-dead, so no hope of a strong moderating voice there. Ugly and potentially dangerous situation.

cnocbui

Yurt! wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476

India reporting 20 troops killed thus far. Serious escalation. We won't be hearing how many Chinese dead for obvious reasons of face.

Modi is brainfart prone Hindu nationalist, but the latest iteration of the CCP has a virulent nationalist streak surpassing even that.

The Whitehouse is brain-dead, so no hope of a strong moderating voice there. Ugly and potentially dangerous situation.

Here you go:

Indian intercepts reveal that Chinese side suffered 43 casualties including dead and seriously injured in face-off in the Galwan valley, says ANI quoting sources

Hamsterchops

Which side are we on?

Peking duck Vs Tandoori Chicken.

4068ac1elhodqr

Yurt! wrote: »

India reporting 20 troops killed thus far. Serious escalation. We won't be hearing how many Chinese dead for obvious reasons of face.

True, but one tabliod say there was no weapons (DMZ?), only sticks and stones.

Perhaps reason for no Chinese fatalities: Wing Chun, maybe even a bit of drunken monkey. Spinning hook kicks, tiger strikes, floor sweeps, simple roll punch train, up to fut sao technique upon nerve supplies.

Lucky they're weren't up against those lads in France, that teared a new hole in Dijon overnight.

titan18

I'd feel if China really pushed here, others will aid India. You'd be at least looking at the US and UK providing support. I couldn't see them not helping tbh.

If Pakistan rowed in with China too which I'd be shocked if they didn't, I think there's a chance Iran will provide support.

Irish Praetorian

Actually there is a point here I think that might be neglected a bit. For a long time it has been conventional wisdom that China is a demographic hyper-power and for most nations in the world, the demographic match-up is incredibly lopsided. Indeed, it's become something of a meme that China could fight (and potentially win) any military conflict with another nation simply by conducting human wave attacks. However, in this particular match up, things are a lot closer. China's population is according to UN figures for 2019 1.433 billion whereas India's is 1.366, a difference of 'just' 70 million (or roughly the total population of the UK). Put another way, for every 1 Indian there are 1.04 Chinese and the distinction between the two states extends to demographic growth rates also; China grows at 0.43% per year whilst India grows at more than twice that, exceeding 1%. Some estimates suggest India might overtake China in population as early at 2022. Now this of course means that the usual trope of Chinese numerical superiority goes out the window and other factors quickly enter play.

I suspect it might come down to a question of which side is more easily able to project power into the disputed region. The area in question is far from the Chinese heartland but reasonably close to the Gangetic plain, the heartland of India's population. Conversely this might also mean China could hit the Indian economy far more easily than India could respond. In either case, it's a disturbing development with unclear implications.

CrankyHaus

There's a long history of border clashes and even border wars between India and neighbours like Pakistan or China remaining limited affairs.
The Indo-Pakistani aerial clashes last year are a case in point.
Of course escalation is always a risk but I doubt either side has any enthusiasm or immediate plan for large scale offensive operations in mountainous terrain in some of the most remote parts of their respective countries.
Neither Modi nor Xi Jinping may find limited border clashes unwelcome as a distraction for domestic consumption.

Kermit.de.frog

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Which side are we on?

Peking duck Vs Tandoori Chicken.

Mumbai Coronavirus Vs Wuhan Coronavirus

2u2me

Still waters wrote: »

Who would win a war between china and India

Don't worry Binkov's got you covered.
If they didn't use nukes; many fronts would be likely.

The topography of the terrain between China and India though makes it difficult for mechanized infantry. Either side would find it difficult to push for an advantage through the himalayas.

China enjoys greater technology and more of it, especially in the air.

Outcome: Marginal Chinese victory

cnocbui

I don't think there is even a remote chance this will go on long enough for simple numerical superiority/inferiority to be a deciding factor.

Yurt2

cnocbui wrote: »

Here you go:

That's from an Indian news agency working of 'intercepts' of casualties (as distinct from dead).

The BBC have noted the Chinese have not confirmed the number of PLA dead. Nor will they if the number is higher than the Indians.

The Chinese Communist Party have a funky relationship with uncomfortable numbers.

babybuilder

https://www.trtworld.com/asia/kashmir-construction-sparks-china-india-border-standoff-36654
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Belt-and-Road/China-ignores-India-over-dam-project-in-Pakistani-Kashmir
https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/perspectives/road-building-kashmir-leads-fears-military-clash-b/


A little bit of background.

Hande hoche!

2u2me wrote: »

Don't worry Binkov's got you covered.
If they didn't use nukes; many fronts would be likely.

The topography of the terrain between China and India though makes it difficult for mechanized infantry. Either side would find it difficult to push for an advantage through the himalayas.

China enjoys greater technology and more of it, especially in the air.

Outcome: Marginal Chinese victory

The comments section of that video did not disappoint.

LiquidZeb

CrankyHaus wrote: »

There's a long history of border clashes and even border wars between India and neighbours like Pakistan or China remaining limited affairs.
The Indo-Pakistani aerial clashes last year are a case in point.
Of course escalation is always a risk but I doubt either side has any enthusiasm or immediate plan for large scale offensive operations in mountainous terrain in some of the most remote parts of their respective countries.
Neither Modi nor Xi Jinping may find limited border clashes unwelcome as a distraction for domestic consumption.

Yeah I think lads here are getting a bit excited with all the Tom Clancy scenarios.

cnocbui

Yurt! wrote: »

That's from an Indian news agency working of 'intercepts' of casualties (as distinct from dead).

The BBC have noted the Chinese have not confirmed the number of PLA dead. Nor will they if the number is higher than the Indians.

The Chinese Communist Party have a funky relationship with uncomfortable numbers.

Who cares what the Chinese say about anything? They are inherently deceitful and have been for as long as I have been reading about them, which predates the internet.

American intelligence believes 35 Chinese troops died, including one senior officer, a source familiar with that assessment tells U.S. News. The incident took place during a meeting in the mountainous region between the two sides – both of which had agreed to disarm – to determine how the two militaries would safely withdraw their presences from the region.

The meeting grew tense and resulted in a physical confrontation between the troops. According to the assessment, all of the casualties were from the use of batons and knives and from falls from the steep topography, the source says.

According to the U.S. assessment, the Chinese government considers the casualties among their troops as a humiliation for its armed forces and has not confirmed the numbers for fear of emboldening other adversaries, the source says.

The sources who spoke with the Times said 43 Chinese troops died in the fighting.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades

Hopefully someone in China will make an assessment that having the Indian Air Force hand their arses to them on a plate, will prove so damaging to their larger strategy of appearing a mighty super power, not to be messed with, that they will soon pull their heads in, as the game they are playing on the border there won't yield enough benefit to make the loss of face worthwhile.

China currently benefits from an ill-deserved mystique of unassailable strength, which will evaporate if they start losing planes, which I think they would.

I nice little twist in this is that India has been a good customer for Russian military toys, whereas China has been trying to DIY as much as possible so might not be as valued. If I was Indian defense minister, I'd be making discrete inquiries with my counterpart in Moscow about purchasing some SU-57s, Russia's stealth fighter, even if not serious. Just the whiff of a possibility of earning some hard foreign currency would have Putin on the edge of his seat and less likely to be supporting China.

I wonder if Russian hackers have managed to steal a whole load of engine tech secrets, because the reported thrust of the SU-57 engines, if true, is big leap on previous efforts and is now almost equal with the US.

CrankyHaus

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Yeah I think lads here are getting a bit excited with all the Tom Clancy scenarios.

Happens every time something pops up. Iran shot down a US drone? North Korea doing its annual sabre-rattling to extort desperately needed food? Putin holding an exercise of the Western Military District?


Suddenly everyone's discussing WWIII.


Incidentally NK did blow up its joint liasion office with the south in recent days.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53060620

Baggly

Mod

Please note 2 separate threads on this topic from the past couple of weeks have now been merged.

cnocbui

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Yeah I think lads here are getting a bit excited with all the Tom Clancy scenarios.

You remind me of the cohort of posters in the first Covid-19 thread trying for an air of moral superiority, accusing the posters out buying masks, hand-gel, toilet paper, pasta, rice and tinned food, of being unhinged fruit-loops and disaster porn lovers.

cnocbui

CrankyHaus wrote: »

Happens every time something pops up. Iran shot down a US drone? North Korea doing its annual sabre-rattling to extort desperately needed food? Putin holding an exercise of the Western Military District?


Suddenly everyone's discussing WWIII.


Incidentally NK did blow up its joint liasion office with the south in recent days.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53060620

'What if' is a central basis for any interest in current affairs, otherwise you'd be better off in a history thread/forum.

CrankyHaus

cnocbui wrote: »

You remind me of the cohort of posters in the first Covid-19 thread trying for an air of moral superiority, accusing the posters out buying masks, hand-gel, toilet paper, pasta, rice and tinned food, of being unhinged fruit-loops and disaster porn lovers.

So far neither side has fired a shot. Both sides have entered talks to resolve the matter peacefully.


Tensions tend to spark at ill-defined borders between great powers.



Escalation is a risk in any conflict; and certainly a China experiencing its first negative growth in decades may be less predictable and more volatile.


However the fact is that both India and China have ample form for limited border clashes and conflicts that stay limited; including ones with other nuclear powers.

LiquidZeb

cnocbui wrote: »

You remind me of the cohort of posters in the first Covid-19 thread trying for an air of moral superiority, accusing the posters out buying masks, hand-gel, toilet paper, pasta, rice and tinned food, of being unhinged fruit-loops and disaster porn lovers.

Jesus calm down. It's not a ****ing personal attack. I'm just saying that there'll be a lot of dick measuring on both sides but eventually they'll stand down.

na1

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

The orange baby is on the case to be mediator. Good job he has all the attributes you want in a mediator, like no previous bias shown for or against one side.........

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1265604027678670848

United States is ready, willing and able to divide and conquer! ...Oh, sorry, I mean: "mediate or arbitrate"

CrankyHaus

na1 wrote: »

United States is ready, willing and able to divide and conquer! ...Oh, sorry, I mean: "mediate or arbitrate"

What dividing and conquering has it done here?


India and China went to war in 1962 when India was "non-aligned", close to the USSR, and very at odds with US ally Pakistan. The US had no dog in the fight and no responsibility for border disagreements between the two countries, who are well able to start a fight on their own.


The US helped broker peace at the end of the Kargil War between India and Pakistan in 1999, when it took a hard line against the aggression of its nominal ally Pakistan. Granted Trump is no Clinton but you can't blame any of this on him and his statement on this is actually fairly balanced.


By all means call the US out on its actual aggression and meddling. But edgy hot takes like this based on zero knowledge are just moronic.

Gatling

cnocbui wrote: »

If I was Indian defense minister, I'd be making discrete inquiries with my counterpart in Moscow about purchasing some SU-57s, Russia's stealth fighter, even if not serious. Just the whiff of a possibility of earning some hard foreign currency would have Putin on the edge of his seat and less likely to be supporting China.

I wonder if Russian hackers have managed to steal a whole load of engine tech secrets, because the reported thrust of the SU-57 engines, if true, is big leap on previous efforts and is now almost equal with the US.

Su57 stealth , it's not stealth at all it's actually easily detected and tracked by 4th generation aircraft add there is realistically only several capable of being armed in Russia Never mind anywhere else ,add it's expensive cost ,much like Chinese stealth aircraft they both claim to have stealth aircraft but making a flat looking aircraft is only one part of the Stealth equation , Indian air force jets have already tracked and monitored the Chinese so called stealth aircraft quite easily using standard Russian radars ,

They would be much better off buying f15s ,or similar air superiority aircraft over anything claimed to be stealth and never tested in combat

They could do with more su30s and su34s would be fantastic additions to their airforce ,

Saab gripens would be a nice addition too

cnocbui

There's a new game in town - generation and return of out-of-phase radar signals to the source. Same principle by which noise cancelling headphones work, except at radar frequencies. The French Rafaele probably has this capability in it's Thales SPECTRA system and the F-35s in it's AN/APG 81.

If the Chinese and Russians have stolen this tech via hacking, which I think likely, then saying an aircraft isn't stealthy because it was tracked on radar might be a serious mistake if the planes have such cloaking tech and are actually not detectable when the systems are switched on.

I was initially dismissive of the SU57, like you, but having had a closer look, I am not. I don't think an F-15 or F-35 would have superiority.

The irony of stealth is that it seems to me to have almost eliminated BVR engagements and that opposing forces might now first encounter each other visually, which would mean the dogfight might once again be relevant.

By virtue of its fully passive situational awareness capability, SPECTRA is a major contributor to the low observability concept of Rafale. Thales Group and Dassault Aviation have mentioned stealthy jamming modes for the SPECTRA system, to reduce the aircraft’s apparent radar signature. It is not known exactly how these work or even if the capability is fully operational, but it may employ active cancellation technology, such as has been tested by Thales and MBDA. Active cancellation is supposed to work by sampling and analyzing incoming radar and feeding it back to the hostile emitter out of phase thus cancelling out the returning radar echo.

Gregor Samsa

This is more than just a skirmish about a border. Even before Covid 19, many companies were looking to move production from China to India and other Asian countries, as costs rise in China.

India are actively looking to unseat China as the go-to place for mass production of goods and pharmaceuticals, and they've been gaining traction. The West's over reliance on China has also been thrown into sharp focus since the Covid 19 crisis, and companies and countries are looking to diversify in order to secure their supply chain.

https://9to5mac.com/2020/05/11/iphone-production/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52672510
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-samsung-elec-china/samsung-ends-mobile-phone-production-in-china-idUSKBN1WH0LR
https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/make-in-india-german-footwear-maker-moves-production-from-china-to-india-may-create-this-many-jobs/1961543/
https://www.counterpointresearch.com/chinas-smartphone-production-falls-70-first-time-2019/

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

I nice little twist in this is that India has been a good customer for Russian military toys, whereas China has been trying to DIY as much as possible so might not be as valued. If I was Indian defense minister, I'd be making discrete inquiries with my counterpart in Moscow about purchasing some SU-57s, Russia's stealth fighter, even if not serious. Just the whiff of a possibility of earning some hard foreign currency would have Putin on the edge of his seat and less likely to be supporting China.

I wonder if Russian hackers have managed to steal a whole load of engine tech secrets, because the reported thrust of the SU-57 engines, if true, is big leap on previous efforts and is now almost equal with the US.

As I was suggesting...

India to buy 12 Sukhoi, 21 MiG-29s amid India-China standoff

India has decided to strengthen its aerial might with the purchase of 12 new Sukhoi and 21 new MiG-29s. The Indian Air Force has already initiated the process and a proposal for speedy acquisition has been sent to the Government of India in this regard.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/indian-air-force-tables-proposal-for-purchase-of-12-sukhoi-21-mig-29s-amid-india-china-standoff-1690350-2020-06-18

cnocbui

The first two images show heavy presence of Chinese troops despite the mutual agreement of de-escalation in the military-level talks between India and China.

India to Trump: You know those 32 A10s you don't want anymore?...

Looks like China is doing the same thing they did in the South China sea in fortifying those islands and turning them into military bases - just give everyone the finger, ignore all agreements and treaties you made previously and international law, just do what you want to seize territory by fait accompli and dare anyone to stop you.

CrankyHaus

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-china-ladakh-border-clash-10-soldiers-including-4-officers-released-by-chinese-army-after-talks-2248843

Captives from clash released by China
This was reported by The Hindu yesterday, but dismissed as fake news at first.

If true it sounds mad that multiple officers as senior as Majors, and even a Lieutenant-Colonel in some accounts, were taken prisoner in a brawl like this. Unless the Chinese surprise-attacked a delegation of senior officers attending the front line to defuse tensions.

Hopefully this is the first step in a detente.
Chinese media tight-lipped while Indian media full of accounts of wildly varying credibility. Impossible to know what's really happening.