Can we have some fcuking control on the airports from high risk countries please?

FileNotFound

Do case numbers really matter all that much now that vaccination is progressing.

Until younger age groups get vaccinated, they will mix and spread it, but being as they have very low risk and also most elderly and at risk will have some level of immunity at what point do we stop using case numbers as a guide.

I wonder if we tested all potential cases how many people would have other sicknesses daily?

Red Silurian

FileNotFound wrote: »

Do case numbers really matter all that much now that vaccination is progressing.

Until younger age groups get vaccinated, they will mix and spread it, but being as they have very low risk and also most elderly and at risk will have some level of immunity at what point do we stop using case numbers as a guide.

I wonder if we tested all potential cases how many people would have other sicknesses daily?

Yes case numbers still matter. While case numbers continue to be high the risk of mutations/variants is high. We got the Indian, NY, SF, Brazil, UK and South African variants was because the spread was high in those parts of the world.

It's true what you say about it being an indicator though. Previously the link between case numbers, serious disease, hospital numbers and deaths was strong but that link has been very much broken. We have had daily case numbers now in the 400-600 range for nearly 2 months and our hospital numbers keep falling, we also had these case numbers in early-mid december for comparison

faceman

Red Silurian wrote: »

Yes case numbers still matter. While case numbers continue to be high the risk of mutations/variants is high. We got the Indian, NY, SF, Brazil, UK and South African variants was because the spread was high in those parts of the world.

It's true what you say about it being an indicator though. Previously the link between case numbers, serious disease, hospital numbers and deaths was strong but that link has been very much broken. We have had daily case numbers now in the 400-600 range for nearly 2 months and our hospital numbers keep falling, we also had these case numbers in early-mid december for comparison

You’re misrepresenting reality. Taking case numbers on their own is meaningless at this stage.

Case numbers matter to a degree but if you take Ireland’s case numbers on their own over the past 2 months it would paint a picture that Ireland is in a rut, unable to get cases down

That’s why case numbers have to be looked at next to hospital numbers and vaccination rates.

Looking at all 3 we know a number of things now:

* Vaccinations work
* Hospitals are not over crowded
* Case rates are no longer causing surges

FileNotFound

Red Silurian wrote: »

Yes case numbers still matter. While case numbers continue to be high the risk of mutations/variants is high. We got the Indian, NY, SF, Brazil, UK and South African variants was because the spread was high in those parts of the world.

It's true what you say about it being an indicator though. Previously the link between case numbers, serious disease, hospital numbers and deaths was strong but that link has been very much broken. We have had daily case numbers now in the 400-600 range for nearly 2 months and our hospital numbers keep falling, we also had these case numbers in early-mid december for comparison

Given that to date information i have read state the vaccinations are effective against current strains (including the ones mentioned above) from a perspective of serious illness/hospitalization, and given that the chance of Ireland being the source of any new dangerous mutations (simple population, hygiene and density relevance) I still find the concern around case numbers odd.

I mean lockdown was specifically "To stop the hospital system being overwhelmed", unless i missed something that has been achieved.

Given the lack of compliance in the country, I just feel that we are getting to the point where we need a relevant indicator and to work from it.

I just hear rubbish about Xmas lockdowns and have to wonder where the logic is for it, now if something relevant changes - a variant as deadly as the first but able to circumvent vaccines - then by all means we can discuss lockdowns etc.

Right now it is all sounding a bit faff

saabsaab

The vaccinations are the key and well under way now. Still with many un vaccinated we still need to be careful as we open up again.

Red Silurian

facehugger99 wrote: »

A pro-lockdown poster with a 26 year old friend with no underlying conditions, in hospital, on a ventilator, with Covid.






Yep, that checks out.

I think the poster is more anti-travel than pro-lockdown. It could happen - especially if you think of the cause to the effect. Guarantee most anti-smokers are such because they have family members who died of smoking for example

faceman wrote: »

You’re misrepresenting reality. Taking case numbers on their own is meaningless at this stage.

Case numbers matter to a degree but if you take Ireland’s case numbers on their own over the past 2 months it would paint a picture that Ireland is in a rut, unable to get cases down

That’s why case numbers have to be looked at next to hospital numbers and vaccination rates.

Looking at all 3 we know a number of things now:

* Vaccinations work
* Hospitals are not over crowded
* Case rates are no longer causing surges

That's the point I was making... Case numbers aren't as important as they were but they're still relatively important

FileNotFound wrote: »

Given that to date information i have read state the vaccinations are effective against current strains (including the ones mentioned above) from a perspective of serious illness/hospitalization, and given that the chance of Ireland being the source of any new dangerous mutations (simple population, hygiene and density relevance) I still find the concern around case numbers odd.

I mean lockdown was specifically "To stop the hospital system being overwhelmed", unless i missed something that has been achieved.

Given the lack of compliance in the country, I just feel that we are getting to the point where we need a relevant indicator and to work from it.

I just hear rubbish about Xmas lockdowns and have to wonder where the logic is for it, now if something relevant changes - a variant as deadly as the first but able to circumvent vaccines - then by all means we can discuss lockdowns etc.

Right now it is all sounding a bit faff

Current variants, yes... What I am saying is we don't want a new variant, which you get by having very high case numbers, the USA, Britain, South Africa and India all have in common that their variants were caused by high case loads as the countries didn't really deal with the virus at the time

Lockdowns stop people congregating and therefore stops the virus from spreading... When there is no vaccine or treatment this also has the added effect of reducing the strain on health services. Vaccines do this also and we are now at a situation where vaccines, not lockdowns are the main weapon against the virus and as you say they will hold up as long as we don't get a resistant variant

FileNotFound

Red Silurian wrote: »

Current variants, yes... What I am saying is we don't want a new variant, which you get by having very high case numbers, the USA, Britain, South Africa and India all have in common that their variants were caused by high case loads as the countries didn't really deal with the virus at the time

Lockdowns stop people congregating and therefore stops the virus from spreading... When there is no vaccine or treatment this also has the added effect of reducing the strain on health services. Vaccines do this also and we are now at a situation where vaccines, not lockdowns are the main weapon against the virus and as you say they will hold up as long as we don't get a resistant variant

Indeed new variants are more likely given higher spread, but the spread in Ireland is far lower than more densely populated nations where there is a more realistic risk of variant development.

While I can accept that theoretically the risk justifies the current state, the practical situation on the ground doesn't really fit in with the theory. Even if we let it run wild we would have relatively small case numbers v Xmas or compared to other nations.

Lockdowns efficacy v people congregating is starting to wain now as we are witnessing on the news and as we go out and about. As you point out when no vaccine existed the lockdowns had their purpose, but given we have effective vaccines with half the adult population at 1 dose which means there is heavily reduced risk of hospitalization then its hard to use hospitals as an excuse anymore.

Just given the real world environment, immunity is the only way forward, immunity can only be gained through getting vaccine or virus, over half the adult populous (especially those at risk) now have low/no risk of needing hospital, Lockdown is being ignored by many and maintained by few, the financial impact is now getting worrying for the future.

All in all time to call a day on the current types of lockdowns and replace with something more applicable and intelligent.

saabsaab

FileNotFound wrote: »

Indeed new variants are more likely given higher spread, but the spread in Ireland is far lower than more densely populated nations where there is a more realistic risk of variant development.

While I can accept that theoretically the risk justifies the current state, the practical situation on the ground doesn't really fit in with the theory. Even if we let it run wild we would have relatively small case numbers v Xmas or compared to other nations.

Lockdowns efficacy v people congregating is starting to wain now as we are witnessing on the news and as we go out and about. As you point out when no vaccine existed the lockdowns had their purpose, but given we have effective vaccines with half the adult population at 1 dose which means there is heavily reduced risk of hospitalization then its hard to use hospitals as an excuse anymore.

Just given the real world environment, immunity is the only way forward, immunity can only be gained through getting vaccine or virus, over half the adult populous (especially those at risk) now have low/no risk of needing hospital, Lockdown is being ignored by many and maintained by few, the financial impact is now getting worrying for the future.

All in all time to call a day on the current types of lockdowns and replace with something more applicable and intelligent.

Local lockdowns? Flying column vaccination vans?

Red Silurian

FileNotFound wrote: »

Indeed new variants are more likely given higher spread, but the spread in Ireland is far lower than more densely populated nations where there is a more realistic risk of variant development.

While I can accept that theoretically the risk justifies the current state, the practical situation on the ground doesn't really fit in with the theory. Even if we let it run wild we would have relatively small case numbers v Xmas or compared to other nations.

Lockdowns efficacy v people congregating is starting to wain now as we are witnessing on the news and as we go out and about. As you point out when no vaccine existed the lockdowns had their purpose, but given we have effective vaccines with half the adult population at 1 dose which means there is heavily reduced risk of hospitalization then its hard to use hospitals as an excuse anymore.

Just given the real world environment, immunity is the only way forward, immunity can only be gained through getting vaccine or virus, over half the adult populous (especially those at risk) now have low/no risk of needing hospital, Lockdown is being ignored by many and maintained by few, the financial impact is now getting worrying for the future.

All in all time to call a day on the current types of lockdowns and replace with something more applicable and intelligent.

The likelihood is small but it does only take one sick person to start a variant, of course in the last 18 months we have over 20 known variants, many of them less transmissable and eventually died out, be nice if we got a more transmissable and less deadly strain, we'd have every country in Europe looking for our tourism then

The vaccines are the more applicable and more intelligent thing that replaces lockdown, for now and hopefully into the future

DaSilva

Red Silurian wrote: »

The likelihood is small but it does only take one sick person to start a variant, of course in the last 18 months we have over 20 known variants ...

I'm not trying to be pedantic for the sake of it, but more because its really interesting imo, but the number known of variants is in the thousands

Red Silurian

DaSilva wrote: »

I'm not trying to be pedantic for the sake of it, but more because its really interesting imo, but the number known of variants is in the thousands

It's assumed there are millions of variants, there probably is... And you are correct, it's really interesting

fun loving criminal

I see more countries are being added to the MHQ list from the 8 of June.

Does anyone understand the reasoning behind adding countries but giving a few days notice like this? If a country is diseased, how do people get to land here now and not do mandatory quarantine until the 8th?

saabsaab

I guess it's the more infectious/more deadly variants people take into account. Maybe a harmless variant would be a good thing and confer a measure of immunity on those that catch it.

Tenger

saabsaab wrote: »

I guess it's the more infectious/more deadly variants people take into account. Maybe a harmless variant would be a good thing and confer a measure of immunity on those that catch it.

A "harmless variant" is probably undetectable,
Either because it infe tion rate drops drastically of because it becomes so mild to be UN-noticeable.

The "Spanish Flu" essentially disappeared in 1920/21.

There is also an older "Russian flu" from approx 1880-1890 (going on memory here) that is no longer fatal or illness causing. But we all carry it. It killed 100s of 1000s 130 years ago.

Red Silurian

fun loving criminal wrote: »

I see more countries are being added to the MHQ list from the 8 of June.

Does anyone understand the reasoning behind adding countries but giving a few days notice like this? If a country is diseased, how do people get to land here now and not do mandatory quarantine until the 8th?

It seems to be the way we do things in this country. Announce, wait, implement

Last October it was announced that the country would move to lv5 on a Thursday to take effect the following Wednesday. MHQ was announced in February and after weeks of debate was introduced in April.

Last September it was proposed that PCR testing should be introduced to anybody coming in, it was introduced in January

Now I'm not saying that it's a bad system but there are 5,000 dead

Valhallapt

Red Silurian wrote: »

Now I'm not saying that it's a bad system but there are 5,000 dead

The central statistics office put the excess mortality rate at less that half that. Every single communicable disease got here somehow.

faceman

Tenger wrote: »

There is also an older "Russian flu" from approx 1880-1890 (going on memory here) that is no longer fatal or illness causing. But we all carry it. It killed 100s of 1000s 130 years ago.

Wow you’re way older than I thought

is_that_so

fun loving criminal wrote: »

I see more countries are being added to the MHQ list from the 8 of June.

Does anyone understand the reasoning behind adding countries but giving a few days notice like this? If a country is diseased, how do people get to land here now and not do mandatory quarantine until the 8th?

Afghanistan and Sri Lanka are the countries.

cnbyz

should i expect the MHQ abolished from Jul 19th when intl travel is allowed ? I need to travel to Turkey on July 21st. Btw not sure i understand why Turkey is still on the list.

faceman

cnbyz wrote: »

should i expect the MHQ abolished from Jul 19th when intl travel is allowed ? I need to travel to Turkey on July 21st. Btw not sure i understand why Turkey is still on the list.

No, MHQ will be around and isn’t up for review until November. It could be extended further then.

maestroamado

faceman wrote: »

No, MHQ will be around and isn’t up for review until November. It could be extended further then.

You one of the bosses so you likely know everything.
Is there a big risk of being issued a big fine at Dublin Airport....

sheroman01

My partner had a flight back home to France on Tuesday. She had the text message from the HSE to confirm she was negative. They wouldn't accept it, despite it being official and with a referral number on it too.

Had to change flight to Wednesday morning. New test taken at Randox that day, €69, results received midnight.

Wednesday morning comes and....she wasn't asked once for her negative test result!! Just went straight through!

Within 24 hours, it went from refusing entry to your flight for your negative test not being official enough, to not even checking your test result at all!

Blut2

^Thats one of the reasons the system is so pointless, and so irritating. Theres no consistency applied to it at any point.

Its all down to the luck of the draw on which gate agent you get, which garda you get leaving Dublin, which immigration officer you get arriving back in Dublin...

saabsaab

Until the vaccinations are past a certain point it's best not to travel abroad. Until end of June at least.

Valhallapt

saabsaab wrote: »

Until the vaccinations are past a certain point it's best not to travel abroad. Until end of June at least.

Absolutely no harm in travelling to another EU country now.

TefalBrain

saabsaab wrote: »

Until the vaccinations are past a certain point it's best not to travel abroad. Until end of June at least.

If you are young this virus is about as harmful as a fart in an elevator, if you are older or old you are either fully vaccinated or will be very soon.

The situation couldn't be more different than a few short months ago.

sprucemoose

TefalBrain wrote: »

If you are young this virus is about as harmful as a fart in an elevator

hyperbole

Valhallapt

TefalBrain wrote: »

If you are young this virus is about as harmful as a fart in an elevator, if you are older or old you are either fully vaccinated or will be very soon.

The situation couldn't be more different than a few short months ago.

Maybe it’s just a coincidence, but since the pubs have reopened, my farts have become horrific, eye watering horrific.

OwenM

sprucemoose wrote: »

hyperbole

true though.

TefalBrain

Valhallapt wrote: »

Maybe it’s just a coincidence, but since the pubs have reopened, my farts have become horrific, eye watering horrific.

Gasvariant?