Can we have some fcuking control on the airports from high risk countries please?

jam_mac_jam

I wouldn't be in favour of enforced quarantine for those who have tested negative. Seems a bit pointless.

I would be in favour for those travelling who have no test results or positive test results. Not for those not travelling.

The cost alone would be prohibitive. This is already costing billions. Could there not be another way to monitor it? Fines if people leave their house. Gps or something.

I think we need to concentrate more on those who have it rather then locking everyone down for ever. Especially when you consider how long the vaccines are taking.

httpete

ninebeanrows wrote: »

There is strong public and political support for compulsory quarantining of travelers in designated facilities/hotels who have tested negative for COVID pre-arrival in Ireland.

One would think the risk of infection among this cohort is extremely low.

Yet there is no legislation for enforced quarantine of positive cases or their close contacts.

Surely there is something missing here?

Would it not be hugely more significant to place enforced quarantine on confirmed positive cases and their close contacts in designated facilities? These people have tested positive for the virus or have been very close to a close contact but yet are free to do what they want with no legislation against them?

It just seems bizarre from where I am viewing things.

So are boardies in support of enforced quarantine in designated facilities for quarantine positive cases and their close contacts? If so, why not? Are you in support of enforced quarantine of inbound travelers in designated facilities who have confirmed negative covid tests pre-arrival?

In case you missed it we are in the middle of a 6-month lockdown in which the stated aim is to bring the numbers very low.

We brought the numbers very low last summer but put no restrictions on incoming travel, no matter how infected the country they come from was. We had 100,000s of people coming into the country every month including from places that had super high rates of the virus. Naturally we reimported the virus and set the ball rolling on community infection.

This time once we get the numbers very low after 6 MONTHS of lockdown, I think the plan is to keep them low by not allowing 100,000s of people fly into the country unchecked.

ninebeanrows wrote: »

One would think the risk of infection among this cohort is extremely low.

The risk of infection on an individual level for someone coming into the country, after being packed into an aircraft with 200+ people for several hours I might add, with a document showing they have test negative sometime in the last three days (assuming it's not forged) is reasonably low. Its not low when you have for example 362,600 people coming into the country over the course of a month.

As has been shown as recently as January there have been cases where infections in something like 200 people can all be traced back to a single infected person. So if and when we get the numbers low it is very important to quarantine incoming people if we want to keep them low. Even if we can't get the numbers as low as Taiwan/NZ/OZ/Singapore/etc, as long as we can keep them low enough to avoid being locked down 9 or 10 months of the year it will be more than worth it.

Deagol

httpete wrote: »

In case you missed it we are in the middle of a 6-month lockdown in which the stated aim is to bring the numbers very low.

We brought the numbers very low last summer but put no restrictions on incoming travel, no matter how infected the country they come from was. We had 100,000s of people coming into the country every month including from places that had super high rates of the virus. Naturally we reimported the virus and set the ball rolling on community infection.

.

Complete rubbish - you have zero evidence to support that because there isn't any - tens of thousands went on vacation summer of last year and the numbers stayed low all through summer and autumn. It wasn't until domestic restrictions were loosened in December that numbers rose. It's the same with this myth that people coming home for xmas caused this current 'wave' - the underlying numbers were rising long before majority of Xmas travel.

But like the rest of the vocally strident minority calling for draconian travel restrictions - don't let the facts get in the way of your rant.

ninebeanrows

@httpete unsure of your answer? You support enforced quarantining negative test arrivals but don't support enforced quarantining positive test people and contacts here?

httpete

ninebeanrows wrote: »

@httpete unsure of your answer? You support enforced quarantining negative test arrivals but don't support enforced quarantining positive test people and contacts here?

Obviously we can't enforce quarantine when we have 1000 new cases on a daily basis, its not remotely feasible, and its too authoritarian to every be accepted.

Last summer we got to the stage of single figure daily cases that were non-community spread and could easily be tracked. At the point mandatory hotel quarantine becomes incredibly effective: the virus is under control in the country and almost fully suppressed, and the primary risk becomes re-importation of the virus from foreign visitors who may be coming from places with high levels of the virus. I note that practically everywhere has high levels of the virus now except the zero Covid countries.

Like last summer we had multiple flights per week from US States that had some of the worst numbers in the world, States that were taking almost no virus suppression measures. That is just a ridiculous situation when you think of it. And these tourists or people coming for non-essential reasons don't show up in the numbers because they aren't going to get tested in Ireland. Unless they are absolutely f*cked with the virus they will go back to their home countries before getting tested rather than spending 14 days in self-isolation here. I know of several people who flew in to Ireland to party with friends last summer. Bars were closed at the time so we are talking house parties. I was even invited by someone I matched on Bumble to the go on the piss with a group of women who had flew into Ireland from all over the place for their friends birthday party.

Get the numbers super low, mandatory hotel quarantine, open up the country 100% internally.

httpete

Deagol wrote: »

Complete rubbish - you have zero evidence to support that because there isn't any - tens of thousands went on vacation summer of last year and the numbers stayed low all through summer and autumn. It wasn't until domestic restrictions were loosened in December that numbers rose. It's the same with this myth that people coming home for xmas caused this current 'wave' - the underlying numbers were rising long before majority of Xmas travel.

But like the rest of the vocally strident minority calling for draconian travel restrictions - don't let the facts get in the way of your rant.

The rise in the numbers started at the end of July/early August, that's when we went from consistent single figures to double figures, then low triple figures in September, before locking down at high triple figures in October.

Figures for arrivals from overseas can be found here: https://www.cso.ie/en/
May: 28,300 arrivals
June: 57,100 arrivals
July: 227,300 arrivals
August: 362,600 arrivals
September 254,400 arrivals

We only need a few of those arrivals to bring in the virus and ultimately set off community transmission.

Overseas arrival to NZ (who had to then mandatory quarantine):
May: 2200 arrivals
June: 3500 arrivals
July: 3800 arrivals
August: 7800 arrivals
September: 8600 arrivals

Even with those miniscule arrivals numbers they were still finding multiple infected people every week in the hotel quarantine so god only know how many infected people were arriving into Ireland when our overall arrival numbers were so much higher.

httpete

httpete wrote: »

The rise in the numbers started at the end of July/early August, that's when we went from consistent single figures to double figures, then low triple figures in September, before locking down at high triple figures in October.

Figures for arrivals from overseas can be found here: https://www.cso.ie/en/
May: 28,300 arrivals
June: 57,100 arrivals
July: 227,300 arrivals
August: 362,600 arrivals
September 254,400 arrivals

You are missing October for a reason of course, because flights reduced and cases went through the roof. The correlation is hours of sunlight not flights in. For instance cases fell from may to June but flights, by your data, increased.

httpete

Deleted User wrote: »

You are missing October for a reason of course, because flights reduced and cases went through the roof. The correlation is hours of sunlight not flights in. For instance cases fell from may to June but flights, by your data, increased.

I didn't miss October for any reason in particular other than I couldn't be arsed editing the month in the following url another time to get one more months data: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/ast/airandseatravelstatisticsSeptember2020/

Here is Octobers numbers: 160,900 arrivals

We were already absolutely f*cked with community transmission at this stage, at which point the greater risk is now due to the internal spread than the incoming visitors.

httpete

Deleted User wrote: »

You are missing October for a reason of course, because flights reduced and cases went through the roof. The correlation is hours of sunlight not flights in. For instance cases fell from may to June but flights, by your data, increased.

NZ and Taiwan have been catching people with the virus every single week in their mandatory hotel quarantines and absolute miniscule number of incoming overseas visitors. How many do you think were coming into Ireland with the virus given that we had 100,000s coming in monthly, many from countries where the virus was out of control? Or is Dublin airport a magical place where only non-infected people fly into?

httpete

httpete wrote: »

I didn't miss October for any reason in particular other than I couldn't be arsed editing the month in the following url another time to get one more months data: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/ast/airandseatravelstatisticsSeptember2020/

Here is Octobers numbers: 160,900 arrivals

We were already absolutely f*cked with community transmission at this stage, at which point the greater risk is now due to the internal spread than the incoming visitors.

Ok so October’s numbers were down on flights. And cases increased by what 1000% or something?

There is no correlation at all between flights and cases. Flights increased as numbers fell and reduced as numbers increased. The virus was never eliminated here anyway.

httpete

httpete wrote: »

NZ and Taiwan have been catching people with the virus every single week in their mandatory hotel quarantines and absolute miniscule number of incoming overseas visitors. How many do you think were coming into Ireland with the virus given that we had 100,000s coming in monthly, many from countries where the virus was out of control? Or is Dublin airport a magical place where only non-infected people fly into?

The Virus was already here. Also we have a border on the island. This nonsense about zero covid has to stop. We reduce numbers, we vaccinate, we live with it.

hmmm

I can't understand why we haven't offered isolation facilities to everyone who tests positive. Instead they spend their time at home, and there is a high-risk they pass the virus on to the other people in their household.

It should be - positive result, "would you like to stay in a quarantine room in a hotel for a week & a nurse will check on you once a day?", "yes please".

The One Doctor

Deagol wrote: »

Complete rubbish - you have zero evidence to support that because there isn't any - tens of thousands went on vacation summer of last year and the numbers stayed low all through summer and autumn. It wasn't until domestic restrictions were loosened in December that numbers rose. It's the same with this myth that people coming home for xmas caused this current 'wave' - the underlying numbers were rising long before majority of Xmas travel.

But like the rest of the vocally strident minority calling for draconian travel restrictions - don't let the facts get in the way of your rant.

We now have a fast spreading variant. Aircraft pressurisation systems are designed to keep the air in the plane so it recirculates the air many times to be efficient. If there are 200 people on a plane, there is a high probability that at least one person has the virus.

Masks are irrelevant in this situation as every is breathing the same air for hours in end.

At the end of that flight, every single one of those 200 people, who would have tested negative on boarding the plane, have breathed in the virus.

200 people spread all around Ireland, tracking the virus everywhere.

And if you think airlines are going to retrofit virus filters to the air conditioning packs... they won't.

No enforced quarantine for anyone. A zero based approach is rediculous in a country like Ireland with an open border to the UK.
I bet the government would just love if the people running the direct provision centres would operate the quarantine hotels too. Someone is going to have to make a profit from it. This has always been and will always be a corrupt country.

is_that_so

ninebeanrows wrote: »

There is strong public and political support for compulsory quarantining of travelers in designated facilities/hotels who have tested negative for COVID pre-arrival in Ireland.

One would think the risk of infection among this cohort is extremely low.

Yet there is no legislation for enforced quarantine of positive cases or their close contacts.

Surely there is something missing here?

Would it not be hugely more significant to place enforced quarantine on confirmed positive cases and their close contacts in designated facilities? These people have tested positive for the virus or have been very close to a close contact but yet are free to do what they want with no legislation against them?

It just seems bizarre from where I am viewing things.

So are boardies in support of enforced quarantine in designated facilities for quarantine positive cases and their close contacts? If so, why not? Are you in support of enforced quarantine of inbound travelers in designated facilities who have confirmed negative covid tests pre-arrival?

Wasn't there something like this in the 1970s? Think it was called internment! The way this virus has altered people's sense of humanity for the worse never ceases to amaze. Close contacts are at about 3 so you could build up a decent sized prison population inside a week.

The One Doctor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No enforced quarantine for anyone. A zero based approach is rediculous in a country like Ireland with an open border to the UK.
I bet the government would just love if the people running the direct provision centres would operate the quarantine hotels too. Someone is going to have to make a profit from it. This has always been and will always be a corrupt country.

Profit does not imply corruption.

hmmm

hmmm wrote: »

"would you like to stay in a quarantine room in a hotel for a week & a nurse will check on you once a day?"
"yes please".

"That'll be €80 per day"
"No thanks"

Mrs OBumble

hmmm wrote: »

I can't understand why we haven't offered isolation facilities to everyone who tests positive. Instead they spend their time at home, and there is a high-risk they pass the virus on to the other people in their household.

It should be - positive result, "would you like to stay in a quarantine room in a hotel for a week & a nurse will check on you once a day?", "yes please".

The ones who need to have their compulsorily movements restricted won't accept

It should be positive result, "You are now moving to a quarantine room in XXX, and will stay there until 48 hours after your symptoms have resolved. Adequate food will be provided. We will take you to your home now, where you have 15 minutes to pack clothing etc. A nurse will check you once a day, and you can phone for medical assistance in between times if needed. If your children or dependent relatives are also positive, they can come with your. If not, they will be cared for in a foster home."

Mrs OBumble

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

The ones who need to have their compulsorily movements restricted won't accept

It should be positive result, "You are now moving to a quarantine room in XXX, and will stay there until 48 hours after your symptoms have resolved. Adequate food will be provided. We will take you to your home now, where you have 15 minutes to pack clothing etc. A nurse will check you once a day, and you can phone for medical assistance in between times if needed. If your children or dependent relatives are also positive, they can come with your. If not, they will be cared for in a foster home."

And that will be €80 per day plus food and beverages.

httpete

Deleted User wrote: »

Ok so October’s numbers were down on flights. And cases increased by what 1000% or something?

There is no correlation at all between flights and cases. Flights increased as numbers fell and reduced as numbers increased. The virus was never eliminated here anyway.

Yes the numbers continued rising exponentially from July right up until the second lockdown kicked in in October. Don't be so simplistic, no-one is saying the rise in infections is all due to flights, or all due to schools opening, or all due to hospitality, etc..we all know its a combination of all these things that sends the numbers higher.

The risk from internal transmission vs incoming overseas transmission is not a constant. Its a variable that depends, among other things, on the daily numbers in Ireland, vs the daily numbers in other countries from which people are travelling. When the numbers are huge here, the risk from overseas diminishes, whereas when the numbers are super low here, the risk from overseas increases. Why do I even need to explain this basic logic?

When the country was down to consistent single figures for daily new cases in July, internal transmission was very manageable since hardly anyone in the country had the virus. At that point, 100,000s of people flying in from places like Texas, Florida, UK, Brazil, becomes a much greater risk. There is nothing to even argue here, its basic logic. We know the virus is brought in from overseas, first the 'Italian strain', then the Spanish strain, the UK strain (which now accounts for the the majority of our cases when the strain didn't even exist in this country until late last year), the Brazilian strain, South African strain..these are coming in from overseas.

Again, NZ and Taiwan have been finding multiple infected cases almost every week in their mandatory hotel quarantine since they started their border control measures and have hardly anyone flying in.

It doesn't take a genius to extrapolate the fact that we must had lots of infected people arriving into Ireland given that we had 100,000s of flying in. That is not as critical when we already have out of control internal transmission, but when internal transmission is under control and we have single digit daily figures, the risk of 100,000s overseas visitors reimporting the virus drastically increases. Its just simple logic, if you can't understand it, I can't help you.

httpete

Deleted User wrote: »

There is no correlation at all between flights and cases. Flights increased as numbers fell and reduced as numbers increased. The virus was never eliminated here anyway.

Actually if you ran a statistical test for correlation on flights vs case numbers you would find they are highly correlated. Of course correlation is not causation, and as I said, we know there are other variables involved in sending the numbers up. The key point is when numbers in the country are very low the risk from overseas reimportation becauses huge.

Sure last January we had no cases (or maybe we did, if so, just consider some month in late 2019 instead)..at that point what was the risk of internal transmission vs the risk of overseas visitors bringing the virus in?

Well we had zero risk internally because the virus didn't even exist here. The risk from overseas was infinitely larger. If we get the numbers down to single figures again we will be back in quite a similar situation.

smurgen

Deagol wrote: »

Complete rubbish - you have zero evidence to support that because there isn't any - tens of thousands went on vacation summer of last year and the numbers stayed low all through summer and autumn. It wasn't until domestic restrictions were loosened in December that numbers rose. It's the same with this myth that people coming home for xmas caused this current 'wave' - the underlying numbers were rising long before majority of Xmas travel.

But like the rest of the vocally strident minority calling for draconian travel restrictions - don't let the facts get in the way of your rant.

What facts sorry?

"One flight into Ireland sparked 59 Covid cases in six HSE regions - study."

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40213163.html

Beasty

Threads merged

ninebeanrows

<snip>

saabsaab

httpete wrote: »

Actually if you ran a statistical test for correlation on flights vs case numbers you would find they are highly correlated. Of course correlation is not causation, and as I said, we know there are other variables involved in sending the numbers up. The key point is when numbers in the country are very low the risk from overseas reimportation becauses huge.

Sure last January we had no cases (or maybe we did, if so, just consider some month in late 2019 instead)..at that point what was the risk of internal transmission vs the risk of overseas visitors bringing the virus in?

Well we had zero risk internally because the virus didn't even exist here. The risk from overseas was infinitely larger. If we get the numbers down to single figures again we will be back in quite a similar situation.

Very well put. Some don't want to know but come out with dated 1% of cases nonsense.

basill

The One Doctor wrote: »

We now have a fast spreading variant. Aircraft pressurisation systems are designed to keep the air in the plane so it recirculates the air many times to be efficient. If there are 200 people on a plane, there is a high probability that at least one person has the virus.

Masks are irrelevant in this situation as every is breathing the same air for hours in end.

At the end of that flight, every single one of those 200 people, who would have tested negative on boarding the plane, have breathed in the virus.

200 people spread all around Ireland, tracking the virus everywhere.

And if you think airlines are going to retrofit virus filters to the air conditioning packs... they won't.

Applying your logic then every person arriving in NZ by air will either have covid on arrival or have the onset of the virus. That is not the case.

saabsaab

basill wrote: »

Applying your logic then every person arriving in NZ by air will either have covid on arrival or have the onset of the virus. That is not the case.

We don't know. They could have picked it up on transit or mixing with other non-NZ folk.

faceman

The One Doctor wrote: »

We now have a fast spreading variant. Aircraft pressurisation systems are designed to keep the air in the plane so it recirculates the air many times to be efficient. If there are 200 people on a plane, there is a high probability that at least one person has the virus.

Masks are irrelevant in this situation as every is breathing the same air for hours in end.

At the end of that flight, every single one of those 200 people, who would have tested negative on boarding the plane, have breathed in the virus.

200 people spread all around Ireland, tracking the virus everywhere.

And if you think airlines are going to retrofit virus filters to the air conditioning packs... they won't.

That’s completely incorrect. Modern commercial aircraft use the same air filtration systems as hospitals. This was covered extensively in the media last year. WHO rated risk of transmission from flying less than going to a restaurant/bar and certain other social settings.

faceman

ninebeanrows wrote: »

There is strong public and political support for compulsory quarantining of travelers in designated facilities/hotels who have tested negative for COVID pre-arrival in Ireland.

One would think the risk of infection among this cohort is extremely low.

Yet there is no legislation for enforced quarantine of positive cases or their close contacts.

Surely there is something missing here?

Would it not be hugely more significant to place enforced quarantine on confirmed positive cases and their close contacts in designated facilities? These people have tested positive for the virus or have been very close to a close contact but yet are free to do what they want with no legislation against them?

It just seems bizarre from where I am viewing things.

So are boardies in support of enforced quarantine in designated facilities for quarantine positive cases and their close contacts? If so, why not? Are you in support of enforced quarantine of inbound travelers in designated facilities who have confirmed negative covid tests pre-arrival?

Bingo. I’ve asked this question a lot and get nothing but answers that deflect from answer.

It makes people uncomfortable because there are factors outside their control. We like to have someone to blame and it’s easy to blame and scapegoat travel.

We’ll never know the extent of cases of people who have symptoms or are close contacts but hide it to avoid the stigma or risk of missing out on work and pay. We know it’s happening though, and that’s without the risk of enforced quarantine. Imagine what would happen if enforced quarantine for all cases and close contacts became a thing.

If people were serious about zero covid that would be necessary along with a very long period of extended enforced lockdown.

daydorunrun

The One Doctor wrote: »

We now have a fast spreading variant. Aircraft pressurisation systems are designed to keep the air in the plane so it recirculates the air many times to be efficient. If there are 200 people on a plane, there is a high probability that at least one person has the virus.

Masks are irrelevant in this situation as every is breathing the same air for hours in end.

At the end of that flight, every single one of those 200 people, who would have tested negative on boarding the plane, have breathed in the virus.

200 people spread all around Ireland, tracking the virus everywhere.

And if you think airlines are going to retrofit virus filters to the air conditioning packs... they won't.

Seriously? I’m beginning to think you are not a real Doctor!

Such BS- All over the world planes have remained in the air over the last year and there have been very few outbreaks in cabin crew.