Italy & Covid-19

yosemitesam1

Beasty wrote: »

Given the way this spreads if people in this country had it last year, with absolutely no social distancing taking place, the hospitals would surely have been overrun in January/February

It is impossible to say that with any certainty. There has been very little if any systematic monitoring of spread at a population level anywhere in the world.
That is the only way that we'll get accurate models of covids trajectory. The testing/tracing carried out so far does not necessarily reflect what is actually going on at a population level with a consistent accuracy

Thierry12

Beasty wrote: »

Given the way this spreads if people in this country had it last year, with absolutely no social distancing taking place, the hospitals would surely have been overrun in January/February

Do the math then Beasty?

R0 for SARS-CoV-2 infection: 2.5

CFR 0.5%

Deaths peak Mid April, 50 deaths daily

When did it start?

Thats me

Thierry12 wrote: »

CFR 0.5%
Deaths peak Mid April, 50 deaths daily

Sorry, how you calculated CFR=0.5% ?

I had a quick look at worldometer's counts at 1st of May:

• 1254 deaths
• 6186 active cases
• 20826 total cases

CFR that time was 100*1254/(20826-6186) = 8.57%

Thierry12

Thats me wrote: »

Sorry, how you calculated CFR=0.5% ?

I had a quick look at worldometer's counts at 1st of May:

• 1254 deaths
• 6186 active cases
• 20826 total cases

CFR that time was 100*1254/(20826-6186) = 8.57%

That's presuming they caught all the cases

0.5% is best guess according to experts

WHO estimate 750m or 10% of the world has been infected

Circa 1.5m deaths put's it at 0.2% CFR which I would say is too low for Italy, it's probably that in parts of Africa where everyone is under 25.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/05/who-10percent-of-worlds-people-may-have-been-infected-with-virus-.html

Thats me

Thierry12 wrote: »

That's presuming they caught all the cases

0.5% is best guess according to experts

A CFR has nothing to do with presumptions and guesses, even best of them - this is the number of dead among the number of diagnosed cases only.

Thierry12

Thats me wrote: »

A CFR has nothing to do with presumptions ang guesses, even best of them - this is the number of dead among the number of diagnosed cases only.

IFR, CFR same thing, you know what I meant, no need to be petty, no one is giving you a prize :pac:

It's all a loud of crap anyway, we have no idea how many are, have or will be infected, people like me can guess, it's as good as anyone's guess

Estimate this then

We had 26,065 case in Ireland on the 31st July and 1763 deaths

We now have 68,686 cases and 1995 deaths on 17th Nov

Difference of 42,621 cases and 232 deaths

What's our estimated CFR trending to based on only post 31st July?

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/4e809-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-31st-july/

AssetBacked2

I would exclude the over 85s in any such calculation given their age and the average life expectancy in Ireland.

Additionally, I would also argue for excluding the over 75s too in such calculation.

Just look at what it throws up.

394 deaths in Ireland in total in 9 months with covid in Ireland under the age of 75 (61348 cases in total under the age of 75). 0.64% deaths against cases.

60 deaths in Ireland in total in the 4 months since 31 July with covid in Ireland under the age of 75 (40003 cases). 0.14% deaths against cases.

The chan chan man

otnomart wrote: »

"according to a study by Barcelona University (UB) that has detected SARS-CoV-2 in samples of wastewater collected in the Catalan capital on 12 March 2019"
Source: https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/covid-19-was-in-spain-a-year-before-breakout/
and Spanish: https://euractiv.es/section/politicas/news/el-coronavirus-ya-estaba-en-espana-un-ano-antes-de-estallar-la-pandemia/

This makes me really believe that if we didn’t have the technology to test for the virus we wouldn’t even know it existed. It would be ‘a bad aul dose’ by any other name.

tobefrank321

Thierry12 wrote: »

IFR, CFR same thing, you know what I meant, no need to be petty, no one is giving you a prize :pac:

It's all a loud of crap anyway, we have no idea how many are, have or will be infected, people like me can guess, it's as good as anyone's guess

Estimate this then

We had 26,065 case in Ireland on the 31st July and 1763 deaths

We now have 68,686 cases and 1995 deaths on 17th Nov

Difference of 42,621 cases and 232 deaths

What's our estimated CFR trending to based on only post 31st July?

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/4e809-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-31st-july/

Cfr is confirmed cases, Ifr is estimated cases.

Ifr probably more accurate estimate of death rate. Its probably around 1%.

If 50 a day were dying back in April, thats about 5000 actual cases a day 1-2 weeks before. (Elderly infected generally aren't brought to ICU and die much quicker than those who are).

The R0 was estimated between 4 and 6 when zero restrictions or people limiting their movements were in place by the way, which was up to about St Patricks Day.

So it does seem likely that the initial seeding in Ireland was related to skiiing holidays and the like in February.

katiek102010

glasso wrote: »

Detected in wastewater. No wonder they got it bad. It was circulating / spreading there for months, hitting the Lombardy region particularly hard.

I wonder what that means for the original Chinese timeline story.

Certainly puts to bed the story that the Italians were promoting at one time that their cases came initially from a factory outbreak in Germany.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53106444

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8711951/Grandfather-84-NEVER-left-UK-earliest-known-fatality-coronavirus-outside-China.html


It was in the UK too. Apologies for the daily mail link but its the only publication still carrying the story. It was widely reported for a day or 2 at the time but seems to have disappeared.

It was on BBC

Thierry12

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Cfr is confirmed cases, Ifr is estimated cases.

Ifr probably more accurate estimate of death rate. Its probably around 1%.

If 50 a day were dying back in April, thats about 5000 actual cases a day 1-2 weeks before. (Elderly infected generally aren't brought to ICU and die much quicker than those who are).

The R0 was estimated between 4 and 6 when zero restrictions or people limiting their movements were in place by the way, which was up to about St Patricks Day.

So it does seem likely that the initial seeding in Ireland was related to skiiing holidays and the like in February.

With you up until R0 of 4 and 6

Impossible it's that high

If it was that high we couldn't have primary schools with no masks open right now and have cases drop, Covid would be everywhere.

An R0 of 6 is lethal

Do the math on a 6.

You'll be shocked.

katiek102010

ttoppcat wrote: »

Speaking to a friend last night who told me the hospital had called her partner back in last week to tell him the "flu" that had him in hospital for 3 weeks in December was actually Covid. He's now being monitored for anti bodies. Maybe there is something to the "bad dose" stories after all

I was desperately ill beginning of December. Caught bug from a friend who was hospitalised with breathing difficulties.

Pre illness said friend used to run marathons etc. She has been left with permanent lung damage
I still have cough, nearly 12 months later. Its not constant but when I exert myself, I get fits of bad coughing.

Whatever the hell it was I don't ever want to be that sick again.

Away With The Fairies

Beasty wrote: »

Given the way this spreads if people in this country had it last year, with absolutely no social distancing taking place, the hospitals would surely have been overrun in January/February

Another poster here has said that healthcare workers in Cork saw an odd viral illness last October... But who knows, I find the whole thing weird and confusing.

katiek102010

NSAman wrote: »

I was home last December. I remember the guy behind me on the plane back coughing his guts up. The lady in front of me when disembarking commented how bad his coughing was and that she felt queasy upon leaving the plane which I did also.

7 days later, 7 days of being on the couch. High temps, inability to breath, coughing, changing my tee shirt three times a day.. doc called not influenza a or b.. mystified.

Roll on 11 months later and symptoms that have lasted all summer to now. Doc says he thinks it was 19, has seen people back from wuhan in December with same symptoms even now. Could only have picked this up in Ireland in December ...

Thank you. My GP thinks I'm mad. I'm still having symptoms nearly 12 months on from seasonal flu.

Thierry12

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Cfr is confirmed cases, Ifr is estimated cases.

Ifr probably more accurate estimate of death rate. Its probably around 1%.

If 50 a day were dying back in April, thats about 5000 actual cases a day 1-2 weeks before. (Elderly infected generally aren't brought to ICU and die much quicker than those who are).

The R0 was estimated between 4 and 6 when zero restrictions or people limiting their movements were in place by the way, which was up to about St Patricks Day.

So it does seem likely that the initial seeding in Ireland was related to skiiing holidays and the like in February.

An R0 of 4-6 is roughly doubling cases every 2.5 days

We will say 10 people came back from Italy in Feb with Covid? It was more than likely way more, but we will say 10

10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280, 2560, 5120, 10,240, 20,480, 40,960, 81,960, 163,840, 327,680

In 40 day's we would have had 327,680 infections

Thats me

Thierry12 wrote: »

What's our estimated CFR trending to based on only post 31st July?

Check out CovidStatisticsProfileHPSCIrelandOpenData

this is not completely correct trend because active cases not deducted, so CFR is smaller than real, but it is giving some representation of trending:

katiek102010

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

For those that caught it last year, did anyone else catch it this year?

It's so contagious that I was sure I would catch it. But nothing in March, nothing in April, nothing in May... And here we are in November and I'm still waiting to catch it. Not that I want to catch it.

I had a horrible cold last November with a lingering cough. With the way how things are going, I wouldn't rule it out. Just possibly a mild dose of covid.

Nah, very sick last December, nothing this year. Had an antibodies test and I have the antibodies, so either I had it asymptomatic this year or it was what I had in December.

To clarify why I had antibody test, I was in hospital and had to have blood taken and it was at the same time they were testing the antibody test

drunkmonkey

Beasty wrote: »

Given the way this spreads if people in this country had it last year, with absolutely no social distancing taking place, the hospitals would surely have been overrun in January/February

They were over run...

https://inmo.ie/Home/Index/217/13566

wakka12

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

I would exclude the over 85s in any such calculation given their age and the average life expectancy in Ireland.

Additionally, I would also argue for excluding the over 75s too in such calculation.

Just look at what it throws up.

394 deaths in Ireland in total in 9 months with covid in Ireland under the age of 75 (61348 cases in total under the age of 75). 0.64% deaths against cases.

60 deaths in Ireland in total in the 4 months since 31 July with covid in Ireland under the age of 75 (40003 cases). 0.14% deaths against cases.

Do ya know any 75's? Plenty of people in their late 70's are perfectly healthy and have very low risk of death in the next 10 years. Seems really silly to discount them.

Btw life expectancy changes as you get older.
When you are born, premature deaths like car accidents , suicide etc reduce the expected age as the average is distorted by people who die young.

When somebody in Ireland makes it to 75, their life expectancy is at least 10 years.
A 75 year old woman in Ireland as of 2016 has a life expectancy of 13 years, so 88 years old.
https://statbank.cso.ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.aspx?id=vsa30

People in their late 70's can suffer very premature deaths due to COVID.

johnnykilo

I work with a Chinese National who went back to visit his family and his wife's family in China in November 2019, he spent 3 weeks travelling around the place seeing all his relatives. He came back into the office end of November with the a dose, ended up making a lot of us on the team sick in early December.

Now unfortunately I'm susceptible to respiratory infections so while it was a particularly bad dose, I didn't think anything too much of it. There were a few others on the team, one guy in particular however, who mentioned he hadn't been sick for about 10 years and this knocked him out for 2 or 3 days. Anyway that was fine, Christmas came and went but then when COVID came in late Feb/early March I had this at the back of my mind as to whether this might have been COVID.

When the first lockdown was finally lifted, as soon as I got back to Dublin again in July, the first thing I did was get an antibody test. It came back negative, but the nurse said they had only seen people getting positive results within 2/3 months of being infected, if I did have it back in November/December that would have been approximately 7 months.

So yeah. I know my story doesn't prove anything but there'll always be that part of me that will wonder.

un5byh7sqpd2x0

drunkmonkey wrote: »

They were over run...

https://inmo.ie/Home/Index/217/13566

They’re overrun every January though.

Away With The Fairies

katiek102010 wrote: »

Nah, very sick last December, nothing this year. Had an antibodies test and I have the antibodies, so either I had it asymptomatic this year or it was what I had in December.

To clarify why I had antibody test, I was in hospital and had to have blood taken and it was at the same time they were testing the antibody test

Wow, with your story, sounds like it was here in December. Just nobody knew what it was at the time and no one was testing it.

katiek102010

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Wow, with your story, sounds like it was here in December. Just nobody knew what it was at the time and no one was testing it.

My op was early April so bloods would have been end of March time.
Now to really convince you, I gave the bug to my nurse cousin, who was sick with it all over Christmas. She was nursing covid positive patients in first lockdown. She was the only one in her team that didn't get it

drunkmonkey

Selah Grumpy Prey wrote: »

They’re overrun every January though.

This thread is suggesting Covid was here before the NPHET says it was. This time last year they were more overrun since records began.
https://inmo.ie/Home/Index/217/13549

I don't believe for one second it arrived in March and made a b-line straight for the nursing homes, it was circulating highly in the community before it got to them.
I know loads of people really sick last December and January, Two people I know very well have been sent for antibodies tests by their insurance company's recently to see if they have the antibodies as they still have a hangover from what ever it was, one is in there mid 20's and very fit the other is 70 and not so fit.

Topgear on Dave

Selah Grumpy Prey wrote: »

They’re overrun every January though.

Its actually hard to know when they are really really overrun when I hear so many claims of them being overrun so often.

Thierry12

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Wow, with your story, sounds like it was here in December. Just nobody knew what it was at the time and no one was testing it.

Mad alright

So many similar stories

Logically and mathematically it had to have been here

It can't be an R0 of 4-6 as they think it is, it would be unstoppable then, absolutely lethal, schools could never stay open.

Dont get people's logic anyway

Covid was in Wuhan a city of 11m people with transport links all around the world in November officially, outbound travel didn't stop there till late Febuary

Did Covid like Wuhan so much, it said i'll stay here for a few months.

I love the weather and atmosphere here, I wont leave on a plane

A few months later Covid got bored and went to Europe ;-)

Thierry12

katiek102010 wrote: »

My op was early April so bloods would have been end of March time.
Now to really convince you, I gave the bug to my nurse cousin, who was sick with it all over Christmas. She was nursing covid positive patients in first lockdown. She was the only one in her team that didn't get it

I'm a believer

That's undeniable evidence

drunkmonkey

drunkmonkey wrote: »

They were over run...

https://inmo.ie/Home/Index/217/13566

They are overrun every year. Except for this year.

Thierry12

Thierry12 wrote: »

Did Covid like Wuhan so much, it said i'll stay here for a few months.

I love the weather and atmosphere here, I wont leave on a plane

A few months later Covid got bored and went to Europe ;-)

Daughter got quite sick end Jan, all the symptoms. Many friends of hers did too. She was at university and took part in an indoor sport with several Chinese students. There are probably a thousand of them at her university. Would be highly likely that at least one of them went home for Christmas and came back with a COVID infection.

lemonTrees

No evidence either way in terms of Covid19 being here in December but i do know both my wife and i as well as our eldest had many of the symptoms of the virus around Xmas last year. I didn't recover fully until mid January and my wife until near the end of January. My wife who works in healthcare had unusually high numbers of sick related absenteeism around the same time period all with similar symptoms to her.