Second wave

Harry Palmr

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Israel is having a second wave right now. Ever since Benji told his people to behave like it was over.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/Israel/?ref=vc.ru

Point of order - a resurgent first wave

Harry Palmr

Ha! Well this is the thing, when does a first wave end? I posted about this before - I think Covid will be a low frequency sine wave until there's a vaccine.

lulublue22

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Ha! Well this is the thing, when does a first wave end? I posted about this before - I think Covid will be a low frequency sine wave until there's a vaccine.

I always thought a second wave was when a virus mutated began to spread again prior to that happening is it a resurgence of a first wave. Any know what defines a second wave ?

Boggles

lulublue22 wrote: »

I always thought a second wave was when a virus mutated began to spread again prior to that happening is it a resurgence of a first wave. Any know what defines a second wave ?

When you get instances of the virus down to very low levels and then it surges again.

Basically Israel or Australia.

The surge doesn't have to be in large numbers. or huge peaks, like South Korea.

Quantum Erasure

R number estimated between 1.2 to 1.8, according to RTE News

JasonStatham

Second wave incoming. Get ready.

Spanish Eyes

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

R number estimated between 1.2 to 1.8, according to RTE News

OK that's it, we are in lockdown again soon and nothing will be open ever again.

Oh hang on a minute the only things closed are wet pubs and wedding venues far as I can see.

GazzaL

Second wave my hole. All of a sudden we're supposed to think shops/supermarkets are death traps where everyone needs to wear masks, despite being open without any issue throughout the lockdown. I can go for a half dozen pints and some immunity roast beef in one pub, but I can't go for a solitary pint in the pub next door because they don't serve food. What a country. The slow man of Europe.

saabsaab

GazzaL wrote: »

Second wave my hole. All of a sudden we're supposed to think shops/supermarkets are death traps where everyone needs to wear masks, despite being open without any issue throughout the lockdown. I can go for a half dozen pints and some immunity roast beef in one pub, but I can't go for a solitary pint in the pub next door because they don't serve food. What a country. The slow man of Europe.

The second wave is coming probably within 4 weeks. Habits are changed since the start of the lockdown. People are moving all over the country and from abroad, shopping more. The R no. is rising and masks are a way to reduce the spread.

ChikiChiki

JasonStatham wrote: »

Second wave incoming. Get ready.

Then what? Life goes on albeit with people continuing to be cautious.

screamer

No surprise with the R number rising. No problem with masks in shops either, I’ve seen idiots there blocking the aisles yacking away as if it was a neighbourhood meeting. No distancing, no masks nothing. The levels of ignorance of some people is astounding. I’ve always worn a mask into shops even though I still get looked at like I’ve 10 heads, I don’t care. I’m not going to take chances in hope the idiots are virus free.

Utopia Parkway

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

R number estimated between 1.2 to 1.8, according to RTE News

Pretty much down to 2 clusters.

Spanish Eyes

saabsaab wrote: »

The second wave is coming probably within 4 weeks. Habits are changed since the start of the lockdown. People are moving all over the country and from abroad, shopping more. The R no. is rising and masks are a way to reduce the spread.

Complacency can happen very quickly, closing things down again isn't so easy after the event.

I reckon a good number of people think this is all over now. It isn't. That's the problem.

4068ac1elhodqr

Surely these are all just blips, or minor/mini waves.

The actual 2nd wave (proper) will be the start of winter, due to various contextual factors, which then may even match/surpass the peak figures.

Strange how China is now (and for last while) largely unbothered by the Wuflu now, while the rest of the globe is striken down.

SouthWesterly

Heard tonight that 25%of cases are from people travelling into the country

Spanish Eyes

SouthWesterly wrote: »

Heard tonight that 25%of cases are from people travelling into the country

So the other 75% are our own.

Spanish Eyes

Joaquin Tiny Someplace wrote: »

Surely these are all just blips, or minor/mini waves.

The actual 2nd wave (proper) will be the start of winter, due to various contextual factors, which then may even match/surpass the peak figures.

Strange how China is now (and for last while) largely unbothered by the Wuflu now, while the rest of the globe is striken down.

Agree. Are they reporting correctly though?

The word would get out anyway. Strange alright. The instigators of this virus are happy out.

AdamD

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

OK that's it, we are in lockdown again soon and nothing will be open ever again.

Oh hang on a minute the only things closed are wet pubs and wedding venues far as I can see.

Can we not let this become a thing

SAXA

Utopia Parkway wrote:

Pretty much down to 2 clusters.

It started with one person entering the Country.. Unfortunately these clusters early on effected older people..Now its mostly younger people who travel and meet more alot people. At some stage these younger people will meet their 79 year old perfectly healthy grandparent.. Bty I do think we have to open the economy but not at the risk of closing the economy. Putting a mask on is not a big deal to save a life..

bb1234567

Joaquin Tiny Someplace wrote: »

Surely these are all just blips, or minor/mini waves.

The actual 2nd wave (proper) will be the start of winter, due to various contextual factors, which then may even match/surpass the peak figures.

Strange how China is now (and for last while) largely unbothered by the Wuflu now, while the rest of the globe is striken down.

It really is impossible to believe that China is in reality experiencing such low levels of deaths or cases. Like okay there were some countries which really did manage this such as Vietnam, but China is ****ing enormous. It's basically a continent, there is so many rural and mountainous border regions across it's vast lands that could not be efficiently manned or controlled and surely some of these people from Mongolia, Russia, India would travel to Chinese cities and spread infections. Because of China's incredibly scale it just seems impossible to believe they have limited spread this effectively, I have no doubt they are ruthlessly efficient at airport checks and with the other measures implemented in the urban areas but I really don't see how they could be enough to completely stop any outbreaks at all.

Pretzill

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

R number estimated between 1.2 to 1.8, according to RTE News

That's worrying.

weldoninhio

saabsaab wrote: »

The second wave is coming probably within 4 weeks. Habits are changed since the start of the lockdown. People are moving all over the country and from abroad, shopping more. The R no. is rising and masks are a way to reduce the spread.

Nonsense. The second wave has been coming every week since the curve was flattened. Would it not be better to put all of the chicken littles into Citywest or other hotels and lock them down and let rational people get on with life??

saabsaab

weldoninhio wrote: »

Nonsense. The second wave has been coming every week since the curve was flattened. Would it not be better to put all of the chicken littles into Citywest or other hotels and lock them down and let rational people get on with life??

It is. The isolating of those concerned only won't work as the virus will spread and cause havoc in the general population. Look at Italy or Wuhan before it was controlled.


Anyway you want the population to be reduced by the virus so we are at different purposes.

4068ac1elhodqr

bb1234567 wrote: »

It really is impossible to believe that China is in reality experiencing such low levels of deaths or cases.

Agree it would be somewhat difficult to gauge what levels they're having, then again in a country where they can facescan a wanted face in a packed football stadium and have him removed before half-time, the level of control is huge.


Meanwhile... China's economy returned to growth in the second quarter, in one of the world's earliest signs of recovery from the fallout of the coronavirus
(+3.2% Q2 of 2020) {Apr-Jun}.

peterofthebr

i feel we are only starting to experience the covid effect from an economy standpoint....I have a question whats the R0 at the moment and when was the R0 the same -back in the last months?

is there a interactive graph out there that shows countries R0 over this pandemic...

igCorcaigh

peterofthebr wrote: »

i feel we are only starting to experience the covid effect from an economy standpoint....I have a question whats the R0 at the moment and when was the R0 the same -back in the last months?

I think R0 is around 1.4 or thereabouts. Not sure of the previous values, but it's not a very accurate measure anyway, especially with low case numbers.

from day one the thinkng was, it cannot be avoided, we willl all get this. however we had to drag it out so as to lessen the stress on the health system, hence flatten the curve.

So do we know how many of the new cases have been hospitalized? that's what I'd want to know. The experts all agreed that we will have to let it run the course but just lenghten that very course. isn't that what we're doing? we cannot expect to have total control on it, there will be spikes without a doubt.

If this is causing a set back, they're in for some shock when school starts!

igCorcaigh

peterofthebr wrote: »

is there a interactive graph out there that shows countries R0 over this pandemic...

Not that I have seen,but interesting if there were. I guess you could calculate it from case numbers.

Still though, all these metrics come with huge caveats. The fraction of cases we are detecting is quite low. Big asymptomatic spread.

igCorcaigh

rusty cole wrote: »

from day one the thinkng was, it cannot be avoided, we willl all get this. however we had to drag it out so as to lessen the stress on the health system, hence flatten the curve.

So do we know how many of the new cases have been hospitalized? that's what I'd want to know. The experts all agreed that we will have to let it run the course but just lenghten that very course. isn't that what we're doing? we cannot expect to have total control on it, there will be spikes without a doubt.

If this is causing a set back, they're in for some shock when school starts!

Yeah, pretty much that was and still is the priority to help the health care system, and it has worked.

This is a really tricky period though. We still have a lot of people with no immunity from exposure, because what we did worked, overall.

peterofthebr

i see a number of people in shops witb valved masks.. its fine if your clear but if you have it your spreading... im still seeing allot in well known food shops/ stores without any form of mask...