Second wave

igCorcaigh

peterofthebr wrote: »

i see a number of people in shops witb valved masks.. its fine if your clear but if you have it your spreading... im still seeing allot in well known food shops/ stores without any form of mask...

Nonsense. Lots of fake masks being sold in dodgy shops. I got mine from a pharmacy.

Not too happy with it though, the 3 layer fabric got twisted up when I washed it.

Bit cynical

The hard thing is the ending of a curve-flattening strategy. I don't think we have an end-game here in Ireland.

Ideally once you get daily rates down to what the health system can cope with on a sustainable basis you want the R figure to be about 1 so that people get exposed (and treated if necessary) while protecting vulnerable sectors of the population. In this way immunity can be built up gradually without large numbers of deaths.

However we made the curve too flat in this country and very little immunity was created. Even with the comparatively minor lifting of restrictions so far, we find the R figure well above 1. We can't open bars because this would force the number even higher and we may have to reimpose some of the earlier restrictions. We're now trying to get people to wear masks when earlier we were telling them there was no point.

We are thus kind of stuck until vaccines are developed. It could still be considered a successful strategy if a vaccine becomes available fairly soon but there is no guarantee of that.

igCorcaigh

Bit cynical wrote: »

The hard thing is the ending of a curve-flattening strategy. I don't think we have an end-game here in Ireland.

Ideally once you get daily rates down to what the health system can cope with on a sustainable basis you want the R figure to be about 1 so that people get exposed (and treated if necessary) while protecting vulnerable sectors of the population. In this way immunity can be built up gradually without large numbers of deaths.

However we made the curve too flat in this country and very little immunity was created. Even with the comparatively minor lifting of restrictions so far, we find the R figure well above 1. We can't open bars because this would force the number even higher and we may have to reimpose some of the earlier restrictions. We're now trying to get people to wear masks when earlier we were telling them there was no point.

We are thus kind of stuck until vaccines are developed. It could still be considered a successful strategy if a vaccine becomes available fairly soon but there is no guarantee of that.

You are right. This is a tricky phase.

igCorcaigh

So we still have a vulnerable population. A decision has to be made about what level of society can function.

I'm glad I'm not that person making the decision!

Blanco100

Bit cynical wrote: »

The hard thing is the ending of a curve-flattening strategy. I don't think we have an end-game here in Ireland.

Ideally once you get daily rates down to what the health system can cope with on a sustainable basis you want the R figure to be about 1 so that people get exposed (and treated if necessary) while protecting vulnerable sectors of the population. In this way immunity can be built up gradually without large numbers of deaths.

However we made the curve too flat in this country and very little immunity was created. Even with the comparatively minor lifting of restrictions so far, we find the R figure well above 1. We can't open bars because this would force the number even higher and we may have to reimpose some of the earlier restrictions. We're now trying to get people to wear masks when earlier we were telling them there was no point.

We are thus kind of stuck until vaccines are developed. It could still be considered a successful strategy if a vaccine becomes available fairly soon but there is no guarantee of that.

This is an excellent post but i'll say this, most reputable health professionals will say that you simply don't want to get this virus.

Its not resulting in young and healthy people dropping like flies, but most are terrified of long term damage to the lungs, even in very mild cases. Something that might flare up in the medium to long term.

So much still unknown. Immunity periods vary depending on who is speaking, but will be interesting if/when we hear of a patient testing positive again having had it 6-24 months previous. Will it have compromised their immune system so much that a 2nd rattle of it is more deadly?

Bit cynical

Blanco100 wrote: »

This is an excellent post but i'll say this, most reputable health professionals will say that you simply don't want to get this virus.

Well you don't want to get a bad dose of it certainly, and while some people do get a severe version, others get very mild symptoms.

I agree with you about uncertainty over immunity but it doesn't have to be permanent immunity to have a significant impact on the R number.

UrbanSprawl

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Nonsense. Lots of fake masks being sold in dodgy shops. I got mine from a pharmacy.

Not too happy with it though, the 3 layer fabric got twisted up when I washed it.

seen masks I bought 3 for a fiver now 3 for a tenner

UrbanSprawl

Bit cynical wrote: »

The hard thing is the ending of a curve-flattening strategy. I don't think we have an end-game here in Ireland.

Ideally once you get daily rates down to what the health system can cope with on a sustainable basis you want the R figure to be about 1 so that people get exposed (and treated if necessary) while protecting vulnerable sectors of the population. In this way immunity can be built up gradually without large numbers of deaths.

However we made the curve too flat in this country and very little immunity was created. Even with the comparatively minor lifting of restrictions so far, we find the R figure well above 1. We can't open bars because this would force the number even higher and we may have to reimpose some of the earlier restrictions. We're now trying to get people to wear masks when earlier we were telling them there was no point.

We are thus kind of stuck until vaccines are developed. It could still be considered a successful strategy if a vaccine becomes available fairly soon but there is no guarantee of that.

Talk of vaccine is not helpful its years away and ppl wont take it anyway masks and social distance a 19th century defense we continue to lockdown on your own govt will fail money will fail global reset happening

YFlyer

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Nonsense. Lots of fake masks being sold in dodgy shops. I got mine from a pharmacy.

Not too happy with it though, the 3 layer fabric got twisted up when I washed it.

Masks were advertised as N95 or N99, or equivalent?

scilover

Over here at my country, lockdown has lifted but we're still getting a couple cases everyday. I'm just hoping a second wave won't come....but I can't be sure anymore.

weldoninhio

rusty cole wrote: »

from day one the thinkng was, it cannot be avoided, we willl all get this. however we had to drag it out so as to lessen the stress on the health system, hence flatten the curve.

So do we know how many of the new cases have been hospitalized? that's what I'd want to know. The experts all agreed that we will have to let it run the course but just lenghten that very course. isn't that what we're doing? we cannot expect to have total control on it, there will be spikes without a doubt.

If this is causing a set back, they're in for some shock when school starts!

As of yesterday there were 13 people in hospital. 3 on ventilators.

BattleCorp

UrbanSprawl wrote: »

Talk of vaccine is not helpful its years away and ppl wont take it anyway masks and social distance a 19th century defense we continue to lockdown on your own govt will fail money will fail global reset happening

If there was a successful vaccine against COVID-19, I'd take it.

John O.Groats

scilover wrote: »

Over here at my country, lockdown has lifted but we're still getting a couple cases everyday. I'm just hoping a second wave won't come....but I can't be sure anymore.

Where is your country?

ixoy

UrbanSprawl wrote: »

Talk of vaccine is not helpful its years away and ppl wont take it anyway

Firstly, it may not be years (Oxford vaccine) but more pointedly why do you think people won't take it? The anti-vaxxers are a minority.

saabsaab

Why let people in from Texas and Brazil! Known hotspots. It makes no sense.

weldoninhio

ixoy wrote: »

Firstly, it may not be years (Oxford vaccine) but more pointedly why do you think people won't take it? The anti-vaxxers are a minority.

Oxford also looking at people being less susceptible to the disease.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1

UrbanSprawl

ixoy wrote: »

Firstly, it may not be years (Oxford vaccine) but more pointedly why do you think people won't take it? The anti-vaxxers are a minority.

Fear mostly ,its would be brand new and after effects not known for decades.

Jim Gazebo

What is the likelihood of a regional lockdown of Dublin in the near future? Cases are on the rise again. I need to go there next week, interested the hear the thoughts.

Pretzill

I think Dublin would be hard to enforce a lockdown on - after all this is where most people live and work (if they can these days) but if it's for the greater good who knows - I would rather see a lockdown or at least test/quarantine at the ports and airports and try and get Ireland back to an r number below 1 and eradicate the disease here before we start importing it again from abroad - after all that's how it reached us in the first place.

Jim Gazebo

Pretzill wrote: »

I think Dublin would be hard to enforce a lockdown on - after all this is where most people live and work (if they can these days) but if it's for the greater good who knows - I would rather see a lockdown or at least test/quarantine at the ports and airports and try and get Ireland back to an r number below 1 and eradicate the disease here before we start importing it again from abroad - after all that's how it reached us in the first place.

Ya with international flights landing and people holidaying here it is hard to see how a lockdown of any form will work in any part of the country. But Dublin is the most likely, if anywhere to be locked down.

Let's not forget how much was sacrificed in the first lockdown, just Dublin is a lot less than that.

Pinch Flat

Much easier to lock down Dublin - garda resources can be concentrated much easier
in restricting movement / road blocks etc. I'd be amazed if there's not a lockdown in the next 2-3 weeks given the recent rise in numbers.

Jim Gazebo

Pinch Flat wrote: »

Much easier to lock down Dublin - garda resources can be concentrated much easier
in restricting movement / road blocks etc. I'd be amazed if there's not a lockdown in the next 2-3 weeks given the rise recent in numbers.

I suppose I'm asking out of selfishness to gauge opinion. I'm quite worried myself that with the majority of cases coming out of Dublin that they could get locked down within the week.

Widdensushi

Pinch Flat wrote: »

Much easier to lock down Dublin - garda resources can be concentrated much easier
in restricting movement / road blocks etc. I'd be amazed if there's not a lockdown in the next 2-3 weeks given the recent rise in numbers.

I would be amazed if there is given the low numbers

ixoy

I'm hoping that, if there are lock downs, it's locked down to specific areas within Dublin. It'd be easier to contain travel within for a start and Dublin is spread enough that if the cases were, for example, in Tallaght that doesn't mean that Rush should be subject to the same conditions. All of Dublin is not in the same in the prevalence of the disease, and never was but the rest of the country is labelling it under the one.

Pinch Flat

Widdensushi wrote: »

I would be amazed if there is given the low numbers

Yeah im not advociating a reversal to previous lockdown. But the numbers over the past few weeks are trending the same that prompted the first lockdown back in March.

Widdensushi

Pinch Flat wrote: »

Yeah im not advociating a reversal to previous lockdown. But the numbers over the past few weeks are trending the same that prompted the first lockdown back in March.

Things are in no way comparable to march, we have widespread testing and everyone is aware of social distancing etc.

Pinch Flat

The magic number seems to be 100 cases which at the point a lockdown is more likely.

Looking back at the numbers March we had 2 deaths and 90 cases when the schools were closed.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-ireland-could-return-to-phase-2-of-lockdown-if-cases-rise-doctor-warns-1.4306951?mode=amp

Widdensushi

We had the first case we know of the end of February, by the start of April we had done 30,000 tests, yesterday's 26 cases were from 9,500 tests in 24 hours.

tonycascarino

Once schools and colleges open the numbers are just going to go up and up.

ldy4mxonucwsq6

Widdensushi wrote: »

We had the first case we know of the end of February, by the start of April we had done 30,000 tests, yesterday's 26 cases were from 9,500 tests in 24 hours.

This is it exactly, I had been told by a friend working in testing that testing numbers have increased x 4 over the past week or two.

This should be seen as a positive step in that we are catching more cases due to the increased testing.

This is why I dont really understand the current panic over numbers increasing.

So of the 9500 people tested only 0.27% are testing positive.

Is there any way to find out how many tests in total have been done here since the beginning to get our 25k positive cases?