Second wave

AUDI20

saabsaab wrote: »

I think it is safe to say that a 'second wave' or whatever you want to call it has started.

When did the first wave Finnish?

ShineOn7

AUDI20 wrote: »

When did the first wave finish?

Wasn't it in June when we were getting just 20-30 cases a day? When one of the Irish "experts" was all over the media saying the chances of getting it were "literally one in a million"

Someone posted a graph recently somewhere on a thread here and you can see a uniform dip in almost all EU countries around then, and then they all start to rise again

saabsaab

AUDI20 wrote: »

When did the first wave Finnish?

When the Danes left? I guess that lull about a month or so ago when new cases fell to around 10 a day?


Maybe second wave is not entirely accurate but more a resurgence

landofthetree

bb1234567 wrote: »

Nowhere in Western Europe has really had a second wave , well anything comparable to the first in number of deaths. By far the worst is Spain which has reported about 1200 additional deaths since the cases began increasing there again in early July.

In Holland they are definitely having a second wave of cases.

But the death rate hasnt gone up at all.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/

AUDI20

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Wasn't it in June when we were getting just 20-30 cases a day? When one of the Irish "experts" was all over the media saying the chances of getting it were "literally one in a million"

Someone posted a graph recently somewhere on a thread here and you can see a uniform dip in almost all EU countries around then, and then they all start to rise again

20 or 30 cases a day is still a continuation of the first wave, not the end of though

Tenzor07

ShineOn7 wrote: »

It's safe to say we're definitely in Wave 2

No, it's one big never ending "Wave" until there's a cure/vaccine....

Quantum Erasure

Depends on how you define a wave I suppose,

ShineOn7

Via Reddit Ireland

So that means we've just hit 1001 cases this week. Depending on tomorrows numbers I may have to go further back than Week 20 (11th - 17th May) to find a week that was higher.

Week 20 - 1116
Week 21 - 527 (Phase 1)
Week 22 - 379
Week 23 - 249
Week 24 - 112 (Phase 2)
Week 25 - 97
Week 26 - 67
Week 27 - 94 (Phase 3)
Week 28 - 127
Week 29 - 143
Week 30 - 122
Week 31 - 286
Week 32 - 550
Week 33 - 557
Week 34 - 732
Week 35 - 807
Week 36 - 921
Week 37 - 1001 (This Week so far)

Double O Seven

saabsaab wrote: »

I think it is safe to say that a 'second wave' or whatever you want to call it has started.

I'm still waiting for the first wave

gozunda

Double O Seven wrote: »

I'm still waiting for the first wave

Like this one?

Harry Palmr

France hit 10,000 cases in one day for Friday. Is it a second wave, well it's certainly not flat calm.

3xh

Harry Palmr wrote: »

France hit 10,000 cases in one day for Friday. Is it a second wave, well it's certainly not flat calm.

Yep. Apparently their highest daily figure since it all started. Yet without anything like the hospital admissions, ICU and eventual death numbers to match.

These pan-European increased ‘case’ figures are laughable. Deliberately conflating the positive results (however accurate or not) now with the mass deaths in March, April and May.

ShineOn7

Superb look at France, UK and Spain's second wave

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03cDtC_8V5k

Even though it's Sky News, it's very well researched and put together

ShineOn7

This week's update on Reddit Ireland


We're two cases short of last week and there's still 2 days to go

A list of previous weeks (Mon-Sun) for anyone interested:


Week 19 - 1,490
Week 20 - 1,116
Week 21 - 527 (Phase 1)
Week 22 - 379
Week 23 - 249
Week 24 - 112 (Phase 2)
Week 25 - 97
Week 26 - 67
Week 27 - 94 (Phase 3)
Week 28 - 127
Week 29 - 143
Week 30 - 122
Week 31 - 286
Week 32 - 550
Week 33 - 557
Week 34 - 732
Week 35 - 807
Week 36 - 921
Week 37 - 1,314
Week 38 - 1,312 (This Week so far)

ShineOn7

I can't find the R0 thread, even in search

This stood out from today

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-274-more-cases-but-further-spike-not-inevitable-1.4359585

Prof Philip Nolan, chair of the NPHET’s epidemiological modelling advisory group, said he did not like the term “second wave” being used to describe the recent surge in cases as it made the disease seem “overwhelming” and the rise seem “inevitable”.


“It’s not inevitable. We’re at about 260 cases a day at moment and the reproduction number is between 1.3 and 1.7,” he said.


“If it’s 1.3 by October 14th we think there will be 400 cases a day. At 1.8 we get closer to 1,500 per day. If we get it below one it will tail away slowly but we’ll still be seeing about 150 cases by the 14th of October.”

Crazy how much difference even 0.5 of an upswing in the R0 makes

ShineOn7

5 mortalities today, crazy how they're back in those kind of numbers

Is there no way of finding out the ages of those who passed? And if they had underlying symptoms etc?

Of course every life is important, but if all 5 of those who are in today's figures were all over 70 with and/or with multiple health issues then we should know about it

bb1234567

ShineOn7 wrote: »

5 mortalities today, crazy how they're back in those kind of numbers

Is there no way of finding out the ages of those who passed? And if they had underlying symptoms etc?

Of course every life is important, but if all 5 of those who are in today's figures were all over 70 with and/or with multiple health issues then we should know about it

Somebody posted a graph with the age of the deaths yesterday in the main thread. Majority were over 70 yes,ages didn't seem to be quite as old as back in April when most deaths were in nursing homes though, Didn't say anything about health conditions but most likely had conditions

ShineOn7

Some day there'll be poems written about Week 26

• Week 11 - 340
• Week 12 - 837
• Week 13 - 1,709 (Lockdown)
• Week 14 - 2,379
• Week 15 - 3,043
• Week 16 - 4,033
• Week 17 - 4,011
• Week 18 - 2,244
• Week 19 - 1,490
• Week 20 - 1,116
• Week 21 - 527 (Phase 1)
• Week 22 - 379
• Week 23 - 249
• Week 24 - 112 (Phase 2)
• Week 25 - 97
• Week 26 - 67
• Week 27 - 94 (Phase 3)
• Week 28 - 127
• Week 29 - 143
• Week 30 - 122
• Week 31 - 286
• Week 32 - 550
• Week 33 - 557
• Week 34 - 732
• Week 35 - 807
• Week 36 - 921
• Week 37 - 1,314
• Week 38 - 1,982
• Week 39 - 2,084
• Week 40 - 3,070 (This Week)

ShineOn7

On the last graph I saw, Spain's case trajectory was dropping a good bit

They're maybe 3 week ahead of us curve wise. So we'll drop in case numbers in a few weeks too right?

Especially if we go up another Level in "restrictions"

ShineOn7

Reddit Ireland

Jesus @ those monthly trends

It's "just an outlier" though, we'll be fine

Cases doubling roughly every two days now

A list of previous weeks (Mon-Sun) for anyone interested:


A graph of weekly cases.

• Week 11 - 340
• Week 12 - 837
• Week 13 - 1,709 (Lockdown)
• Week 14 - 2,379
• Week 15 - 3,043
• Week 16 - 4,033
• Week 17 - 4,011
• Week 18 - 2,244
• Week 19 - 1,490
• Week 20 - 1,116
• Week 21 - 527 (Phase 1)
• Week 22 - 379
• Week 23 - 249
• Week 24 - 112 (Phase 2)
• Week 25 - 97
• Week 26 - 67
• Week 27 - 94 (Phase 3)
• Week 28 - 127
• Week 29 - 143
• Week 30 - 122
• Week 31 - 286
• Week 32 - 550
• Week 33 - 557
• Week 34 - 732
• Week 35 - 807
• Week 36 - 921
• Week 37 - 1,314
• Week 38 - 1,982 (Dublin Level 3: 18/09)
• Week 39 - 2,084
• Week 40 - 3,070
• Week 41 - 4,510 (National Level 3: 07/10)
• Week 42 - 7,495 (This Week)

A list of previous months for anyone interested:

• April - 14,176
• May - 4406
• June - 560
• July - 639
• August - 2,720
• September - 7,430
• October (So far) - 13,894

And a graph.

ShineOn7

Here is the weekly percentage increase over the past while.

• wk 33-34 557 to 732 (131.42%)
• wk 34-35 732 to 807 (110.25%)
• wk 35-36 807 to 921 (114.13%)
• wk 36-37 921 to 1,314 (142.67%)
• wk 37-38 1,314 to 1,982 (150.84%)
• wk 38-39 1,982 to 2,084 (105.15%)
• wk 39-40 2,084 to 3,070 (147.31%)
• wk 40-41 3,070 to 4,510 (146.91%)
• wk 41-42 4,510 to 7,495 (166.19%)

bb1234567

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Reddit Ireland

Jesus @ those monthly trends

It's "just an outlier" though, we'll be fine

Mad to think cases in October will be higher than in April!

48 deaths notified in first 17 days of October. 12080 cases in first 17 days of October

First 17 days of April 444 deaths.Cases in first 17 days of April 10526

So we are roughly at 1 tenth of the deaths we were seeing last peak. But same cases. Obviously vulnerable people are now self isolating or taking many precautions, nursing homes are better protected, and hospital treatment is also better, so the death rate cant be directly translated to our current context. But anyone prepared to make an educated guess on how many cases that may mean we were seeing in reality back in mid april per day ?

saabsaab

Looking at the graph for cases in Ireland the second wave or whatever you want to call it started at the end of August beginning of September. Caused by ?


Schools/College/Holiday returns/coming here.

Charles Babbage

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Here is the weekly percentage increase over the past while.

• wk 33-34 557 to 732 (131.42%)
• wk 34-35 732 to 807 (110.25%)
• wk 35-36 807 to 921 (114.13%)
• wk 36-37 921 to 1,314 (142.67%)
• wk 37-38 1,314 to 1,982 (150.84%)
• wk 38-39 1,982 to 2,084 (105.15%)
• wk 39-40 2,084 to 3,070 (147.31%)
• wk 40-41 3,070 to 4,510 (146.91%)
• wk 41-42 4,510 to 7,495 (166.19%)

If the increase in those weeks had been more like Wk 35 then we would not be where we are today. All that was required was for people to take it easy.

utyh2ikcq9z76b

bb1234567 wrote: »

Mad to think cases in October will be higher than in April!

48 deaths notified in first 17 days of October. 12080 cases in first 17 days of October

First 17 days of April 444 deaths.Cases in first 17 days of April 10526

So we are roughly at 1 tenth of the deaths we were seeing last peak. But same cases. Obviously vulnerable people are now self isolating or taking many precautions, nursing homes are better protected, and hospital treatment is also better, so the death rate cant be directly translated to our current context. But anyone prepared to make an educated guess on how many cases that may mean we were seeing in reality back in mid april per day ?

Cases were far higher in April they just hadn't the testing capabilities. We have a true view of the numbers now but not in April

Jinglejangle69

bb1234567 wrote: »

Mad to think cases in October will be higher than in April!

48 deaths notified in first 17 days of October. 12080 cases in first 17 days of October

First 17 days of April 444 deaths.Cases in first 17 days of April 10526

So we are roughly at 1 tenth of the deaths we were seeing last peak. But same cases. Obviously vulnerable people are now self isolating or taking many precautions, nursing homes are better protected, and hospital treatment is also better, so the death rate cant be directly translated to our current context. But anyone prepared to make an educated guess on how many cases that may mean we were seeing in reality back in mid april per day ?

We were testing 500 a day in April.

Yesterday we tested 19,000.

xl500

ShineOn7 wrote: »

On the last graph I saw, Spain's case trajectory was dropping a good bit

They're maybe 3 week ahead of us curve wise. So we'll drop in case numbers in a few weeks too right?

Especially if we go up another Level in "restrictions"

In Spain Everyone has to wear a mask in Store etc and if you are outdoors unless sitting at a table eating and Police are very strict on enforcing it with fines issued

ShineOn7

xl500 wrote: »

In Spain Everyone has to wear a mask in Store etc and if you are outdoors unless sitting at a table eating and Police are very strict on enforcing it with fines issued

Meanwhile in Ireland:

Gobshíte Gardai standing at checkpoints saying "careful now"

From the HSE to the Guards and much more in between; Covid is showing Ireland's serious cracks that have been ignored for at least 20 years now

bb1234567

bb1234567 wrote: »

Mad to think cases in October will be higher than in April!......

Not really, much more testing is being done now then in April.
30 odd in ICU compared to 150.......... there was loads of undetected covid around in April.

ShineOn7

Hospital cases. I'm not liking this trajectory

August 22nd: 20
September 22nd: 94
October 22nd: 313