Second wave

DaSilva

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Meanwhile in Ireland:

Gobshíte Gardai standing at checkpoints saying "careful now"

From the HSE to the Guards and much more in between; Covid is showing Ireland's serious cracks that have been ignored for at least 20 years now

And yet Spain keep posting record numbers also, doesn't look like they are having much success either. When are we going to cop on that what we are doing isn't working

ShineOn7

DaSilva wrote: »

And yet Spain keep posting record numbers also, doesn't look like they are having much success either. When are we going to cop on that what we are doing isn't working

Isn't Spain's numbers being driven by Madrid and other badly affected areas?

The Valencia area and the Canary Islands both have less than 1% positivity rate

Kermit.de.frog

The situation is doing downhill rapidly in Spain

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1319362578695385088

And let's not forget France

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1319341388845252612

Italy also surging in hospitalisation, ICU occupations and sadly deaths now too.

Germany is also in a precarious place.

What you are seeing effectively is exactly the same as South America except in Europe. It's on that scale.

bb1234567

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The situation is doing downhill rapidly in Spain

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1319362578695385088

And let's not forget France

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1319341388845252612

Italy also surging in hospitalisation, ICU occupations and sadly deaths now too.

Germany is also in a precarious place.

You can't do thatKermit! :mad: Even though lots of people post those BNO quotes everyday you're gonna get a lot of **** for it because it's you :mad:

fm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Isn't Spain's numbers being driven by Madrid and other badly affected areas?

The Valencia area and the Canary Islands both have less than 1% positivity rate

Madrid numbers have been dropping since sep 29th,most other areas are growing

Kermit.de.frog

bb1234567 wrote: »

You can't do thatKermit! :mad: Even though lots of people post those BNO quotes everyday you're gonna get a lot of **** for it because it's you :mad:

I post them for the informative bite sized info.

I also add commentary to my posts so

ShineOn7

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

What you are seeing effectively is exactly the same as South America except in Europe. It's on that scale.

Eeesh @ those figures. Crazy stats

What's there to really prevent catastrophic numbers like that here?

Level 5 and rosary beads?

Kermit.de.frog

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Eeesh @ those figures. Crazy stats

What's there to really prevent catastrophic numbers like that here?

Level 5 and rosary beads?

No harm having the holy water handy too.

JustAThought

Perhaps if the likes of major beauty brands that sell lipsticks and cosmetics were not telling their staff to come into work and use HSE signs in their cars saying they were essential workers we might have a little less of a catastrophe on our hands. All businesses are not equal in this - not are they playing fair.

ShineOn7

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The situation is doing downhill rapidly in Spain

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1319362578695385088

Canary Islands (added to UK's Green List today) and Valencia region are both below 1% positivity rate

But maybe it'll spread there too in coming weeks

ShineOn7

JustAThought wrote: »

Perhaps if the likes of major beauty brands that sell lipsticks and cosmetics were not telling their staff to come into work and use HSE signs in their cars saying they were essential workers we might have a little less of a catastrophe on our hands. All businesses are not equal in this - not are they playing fair.

Name and shame

begbysback

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Eeesh @ those figures. Crazy stats

What's there to really prevent catastrophic numbers like that here?

Level 5 and rosary beads?

An overnight exponential growth of population x10

ShineOn7

Of the 777 cases notified today

• Male: 434
• Female: 340
• Under 45 years old: 513
• Median age: 33

• Dublin: 182
• Galway: 81
• Wexford: 44
• Meath: 42
• Cork: 41
• Remaining 387 spread across 21 counties

Me today:

"Dublin seems to be finally dropping"

Me tomorrow when the backlog is unleashed like the morning after 9 pints of Guinness and a Korma:

"Ah bollix"

ShineOn7

Static Jak on Reddit Ireland

For anyone interested, I did a post on how some other countries are doing. Basically, everywhere is under some degree of pressure.
Some of this may be slightly out of date so sorry about that:


Sweden:

Sweden extends its temporary entry ban until December 22
108,900 people have tested positive for Coronavirus in Sweden, with a total of 5,930 deaths. The death rate per-capita, during last week, was 58.6 per 100,000 people.
The country's public health agency is working with regional authorities who will now be able to enforce new restrictions from Monday.
The latest move follows the country's sixth consecutive rise in weekly new cases since the week commencing August 31, after flattening out for months, according to data compiled by the World Health Organization.

Wales:

Wales is imposed a "firebreak" lockdown for 17 days from 6pm on Friday, the Welsh government has announced.
The new coronavirus lockdown will take Wales back to the restrictions introduced in March, with most businesses shutting, and people being told to stay at home and work from home where possible.
First Minister Mark Drakeford said the introduction of a new lockdown would deliver a "short, sharp shock".

France:

French president Emmanuel Macron said he had no choice but to extend a curfew to more than two-thirds of the population after official figures showed the country had now surpassed more than one million coronavirus cases.
42,032 positive COVID-19 cases was recorded in 24 hours on Friday, bringing the total to 1,041,075 confirmed cases since the start of the epidemic in March, according to official health ministry figures.
"It is too early today to say whether we are moving towards local or wider reconfinements", he added because we have to wait "until the middle of next week [to have] a clearer vision of the impact of the measures." He also indicated the country would have to live with the virus "at best until the summer of 2021".

Belgium:

Frank Vandenbroucke says situation in parts of country is ‘most dangerous in all of Europe’
600 hospital admissions yesterday. Deaths up to 74 on Friday, was only 6 deaths 3 weeks ago. And reported that 20% of hospital workers are sick or too exhausted to show up with all non-urgent surgery cancelled.
For four weeks since Monday, all bars and restaurants are closed. The sale of alcohol is banned after 8pm and a curfew is imposed between midnight and 5am.

The Netherlands:

Dutch PM orders 'partial lockdown', all bars and cafes to close. All bars, cafes and restaurants to close, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has said.
After months of refusing to make the wearing of masks compulsory, Mr Rutte finally ordered that non-medical face coverings must also be worn in all indoor spaces by people aged over 13.
The sale of alcohol will also be banned after 8pm in a bid to reduce the social contacts that have led to the rise in Covid-19 cases, Mr Rutte said of the steps that will take effect tomorrow (report from 13/10).

Italy:

In Italy, which was the initial epicentre of Europe’s outbreak in spring, fresh curbs including earlier closures for bars and restaurants and a push to increase working from home were also announced.
“We cannot waste time,” Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said, also flagging bans on amateur team sports and local festivals.
But Italian mayors can close public squares and other gathering places after 9pm, permitting access only to reach homes or businesses.

Poland:

Poland will convert Warsaw stadium into temporary COVID-19 hospital.
The 58,500-capacity stadium will have room for 500 patients and will be equipped with oxygen therapy, government spokesperson Piotr Muller said on Monday.
Poland is now witnessing an exponential surge of coronavirus infections, after experiencing very low rates of infection in the spring compared to western European countries.
Around half the country is now designated as a coronavirus “red zone”.
Polish president Andrzej Duda tests positive for Covid-19

Spain

Spain has declared a national state of emergency and imposed a night-time curfew in an effort to help control a new spike in Covid-19 infections.
Under the emergency measures, local authorities can also ban travel between regions. The new measures announced include a limit on public and private gatherings of different households to a maximum of six people.
The same level of emergency was introduced during the first wave of the pandemic in April.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said he would ask parliament to extend the new rules, initially in force for 15 days, to six months.

Italy

Italy is shutting cinemas, swimming pools and gyms from Monday.
Bars, restaurants and ice-cream stands will have to close by 18:00, but shops and the majority of businesses will remain operating.
"We think that we will suffer a bit this month but by gritting our teeth with these restrictions, we'll be able to breathe again in December," Mr Conte told a news conference on Sunday.

Czech Republic

New lockdowns came into force this weekend, 12,472 new Covid cases were reported for Saturday - the country's highest daily tally for a weekend day.
The number of people who have died while infected with the coronavirus in the Czech Republic has doubled to 2,047 in two weeks, Health Ministry data showed on Saturday.
The fight against the resurgence of the epidemic suffered a setback on Friday when prime minister Andrej Babis moved to sack his health minister for violating government's lockdown. The president has yet to decide on the minister's fate.

ShineOn7

Static Jak on Reddit Ireland

This bit stands out

• Week 43 - 7,194
• Week 44 - 4,940 (This Week)

But isn't this largely down to the Track and Trace system completely falling apart?

A list of previous weeks (Mon-Sun) for anyone interested:
A graph of weekly cases.

• Week 11 - 340
• Week 12 - 837
• Week 13 - 1,709 (Lockdown)
• Week 14 - 2,379
• Week 15 - 3,043
• Week 16 - 4,033
• Week 17 - 4,011
• Week 18 - 2,244
• Week 19 - 1,490
• Week 20 - 1,116
• Week 21 - 527 (Phase 1)
• Week 22 - 379
• Week 23 - 249
• Week 24 - 112 (Phase 2)
• Week 25 - 97
• Week 26 - 67
• Week 27 - 94 (Phase 3)
• Week 28 - 127
• Week 29 - 143
• Week 30 - 122
• Week 31 - 286
• Week 32 - 550
• Week 33 - 557
• Week 34 - 732
• Week 35 - 807
• Week 36 - 921
• Week 37 - 1,314
• Week 38 - 1,982 (Dublin Level 3: 18/09)
• Week 39 - 2,084 (Donegal Level 3: 25/09)
• Week 40 - 3,070
• Week 41 - 4,510 (National Level 3: 07/10)
• Week 42 - 7,495 (Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan Level 4: 15/10)
• Week 43 - 7,194
• Week 44 - 4,940 (This Week)

A list of previous months for anyone interested:

• April - 14,176
• May - 4406
• June - 560
• July - 639
• August - 2,720
• September - 7,430
• October (So far) - 26,028

And a graph.

bloopy

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Some day there'll be poems written about Week 26

• Week 11 - 340
• Week 12 - 837
• Week 13 - 1,709 (Lockdown)
• Week 14 - 2,379
• Week 15 - 3,043
• Week 16 - 4,033
• Week 17 - 4,011
• Week 18 - 2,244
• Week 19 - 1,490
• Week 20 - 1,116
• Week 21 - 527 (Phase 1)
• Week 22 - 379
• Week 23 - 249
• Week 24 - 112 (Phase 2)
• Week 25 - 97
• Week 26 - 67
• Week 27 - 94 (Phase 3)
• Week 28 - 127
• Week 29 - 143
• Week 30 - 122
• Week 31 - 286
• Week 32 - 550
• Week 33 - 557
• Week 34 - 732
• Week 35 - 807
• Week 36 - 921
• Week 37 - 1,314
• Week 38 - 1,982
• Week 39 - 2,084
• Week 40 - 3,070 (This Week)

Can you do the same but with deaths?

ShineOn7

Is there any modelling or a authoritative study on past pandemics that says this second wave will be the roughest in terms of cases etc?

I mean surely to feck this wave will burn most of it out?

Not sure society is built for or will adhere to any restrictions for a rough wave 3 or 4

ShineOn7

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Static Jak on Reddit Ireland

This bit stands out



But isn't this largely down to the Track and Trace system completely falling apart?

The last two weeks have had more Call 3's - call to inform people they are close contacts and to arrange test, than any previous weeks

Thats me

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Is there any modelling or a authoritative study on past pandemics that says this second wave will be the roughest in terms of cases etc?

From what i heard, typycally there are 3 waves with the second wave is strongest one. Third wave will come late spring or beginning of summer. Past the third wave virus expected to transform to mild kind of infection which will not harm enybody :rolleyes:

funnydoggy

Thats me wrote: »

From what i heard, typycally there are 3 waves with the second wave is strongest one. Third wave will come late spring or beginning of summer. Past the third wave virus expected to transform to mild kind of infection which will not harm enybody :rolleyes:

Where did you hear this?

Thats me

funnydoggy wrote: »

Where did you hear this?

Sorry, heard this multiple times as well-known fact, but cannot remember any particular publication... In any case that was not a study, but references to the past expirence. Unlikely anybody can say for sure how exactly this pandemy will develop.

But in any case wirus will have to become less damaging or to stop spreading because no humans left to spread it.

ShineOn7

Deleted User wrote: »

The last two weeks have had more Call 3's - call to inform people they are close contacts and to arrange test, than any previous weeks

My coffee hasn't kicked yet and I haven't had much sleep, but I'm taking that to mean the case numbers we are now getting to be accurate?

ShineOn7

ShineOn7 wrote: »

My coffee hasn't kicked yet and I haven't had much sleep, but I'm taking that to mean the case numbers we are now getting to be accurate?

There is no reason to suggest its not. Cases in countries like Mayo are rising slowly. If the drop was down to tracing, all countries should be falling

ShineOn7

Static Jak on Reddit Ireland


A list of previous weeks (Mon-Sun) for anyone interested:


A graph of weekly cases.

• Week 11 - 340
• Week 12 - 837
• Week 13 - 1,709 (Lockdown)
• Week 14 - 2,379
• Week 15 - 3,043
• Week 16 - 4,033
• Week 17 - 4,011
• Week 18 - 2,244
• Week 19 - 1,490
• Week 20 - 1,116
• Week 21 - 527 (Phase 1)
• Week 22 - 379
• Week 23 - 249
• Week 24 - 112 (Phase 2)
• Week 25 - 97
• Week 26 - 67
• Week 27 - 94 (Phase 3)
• Week 28 - 127
• Week 29 - 143
• Week 30 - 122
• Week 31 - 286
• Week 32 - 550
• Week 33 - 557
• Week 34 - 732
• Week 35 - 807
• Week 36 - 921
• Week 37 - 1,314
• Week 38 - 1,982 (Dublin Level 3: 18/09)
• Week 39 - 2,084 (Donegal Level 3: 25/09)
• Week 40 - 3,070
• Week 41 - 4,510 (National Level 3: 07/10)
• Week 42 - 7,495 (Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan Level 4: 15/10)
• Week 43 - 7,194 (National Level 5: 22/10)
• Week 44 - 4,940
• Week 45 - 3,500 (This Week)

daretodream

So if this is 2nd Wave, will there be another lockdown if/when 3rd Wave hits and when is this expected, weeks after current restrictions are lifted in early 2021? Wish there was some kind of benchmark of what and when to expect if numbers go bad again.

ShineOn7

daretodream wrote: »

So if this is 2nd Wave, will there be another lockdown if/when 3rd Wave hits and when is this expected, weeks after current restrictions are lifted in early 2021?

Yes of course. Meehole even said as much during the press briefing when they announced Level 5

ShineOn7

Covid-19: ICU admissions and deaths down to a fraction of first wave

Hospitalisations, intensive care admissions and deaths due to Covid-19 are running at a fraction of the level seen during the first wave of the pandemic, according to data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).


The hospitalisation rate has fallen from 192 per 1,000 cases in March to a provisional figure of 32 last month. The rate of admission to intensive care units, which was 27 per 1,000 in March, was five per 1,000 in September and three per 1,000 last month.


The age profile of cases in the current wave has been much lower than in the first.


The data show that more than 93 per cent of those who have died with Covid-19 in the State had an underlying condition.


The CSO said that, in all, 1,679 people with Covid-19 had died at the end of last month, with a further 229 deaths having a probable link to the virus. It said 11 healthcare workers with Covid-19 have died, higher than the eight recorded by the HSE.

Full article here https://www.irishtimes.com/covid-19-icu-admissions-and-deaths-down-to-a-fraction-of-first-wave-1.4402727

ShineOn7

This caught my eye from Tazz T, a regular contributer to the Travel thread

No one has been able to eradicate the virus. We must minimise the impact of the virus while living with it (and we have been very successful to date). It has to play out and should do, like so many other epidemics, by the end of the third wave, which in Ireland should be before next summer.

BTW I'm speaking as an immunology grad whose final year thesis was on the epidemiology of airborne disease.

Someone on Boards with actual qualifications to speak on this. I know, crazy right?

The reason I'm posting this bit of positive news here is that Tazz is the second qualified person I've heard say "worst of it over by June next year"

The other was a qualified medical guest on with Joe Rogan. He regularly has people on with strong medical qualifications so I forget which exact guest it was

This coupled with the vaccine news will surely mean we're in much, much better shape by Q3 next year

One can hope!

ShineOn7

Static Jak on Reddit Ireland making sense of the numbers as always

So in terms of weekly numbers, this time last week we had 1,297 cases. This week, we're currently at 1,630.

So if this trend continues we've not only hit a wall but gone backwards.

I brought this up a few days back but I believe that if most stores and businesses are open due to finding ways to be "essential" along with schools etc, then most people are travelling and continuing the spread of the virus.

Mix that with just the general fatigue of all this and this isn't even slightly surprising. This is Level 5 in name only.

The reproduction number for Covid-19 has increased from an estimate of 0.6 last week to a figure of between 0.7 and 0.9, Prof Philip Nolan has said. He said this is a 'significant cause for concern'

• 7-day average: 420.86
• (Previous 7 days: 381.86)

Thierry12

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Static Jak on Reddit Ireland making sense of the numbers as always

We is Jak blaming the public?

Why are Tony and HSE blaming the public?

Its the hospitals

Hundreds of staff off as close contacts from workplace contact

Limerick and Letterkenny Hospitals are like bloody Wuhan right now, virus everywhere there

Virus is airborne and those eejits having Coffees and chats together on site

No mask should ever come off on site, ever

Canteens need to be closed in hospitals

Its airborne ye clowns

Tony and that Ryan bollix in charge of HSE need to sort there house before telling public what to do

Some cheek telling businesses work from home and state of Hospital infection numbers