Second wave

jim salter

jim salter wrote: »

I thought the next wave will be COVID-20, no?

According to Simon Harris it should be

April wants its joke back

Danno

Sconsey wrote: »

...I'm not against the idea at all but I don't know how we could get out of it once we start it....

The thing is, we have started it. Once we went down the suppress and destroy the virus route we must keep going. Opening up airports and ferry ports puts everything we did during lockdown in vein.

You either have the virus circulating in the community (with safeguards and measures in place to protect the vulnerable) or you don't. We don't. Therefore the almost certain way for a re-emergence or a second wave in Ireland right now is importation.

See the family in Sligo last week for evidence of this: https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/sligo-covid-cases-cluster-how-22284044

Danno

Sconsey wrote: »

...The virus will be around in lots of countries long after we would have eradicated it here, do we keep our ports closed to travellers for years?

Yes. From all countries that have failed to get their virus levels to where ours are at, and only if they have the same level of border control. For example, there is no use of Ireland and Greece having an air-bridge if the Greeks are allowing Sweden and Britain in there. A chain is as strong as it's weakest link.

is_that_so

Danno wrote: »

The thing is, we have started it. Once we went down the suppress and destroy the virus route we must keep going. Opening up airports and ferry ports puts everything we did during lockdown in vein.

You either have the virus circulating in the community (with safeguards and measures in place to protect the vulnerable) or you don't. We don't. Therefore the almost certain way for a re-emergence or a second wave in Ireland right now is importation.

See the family in Sligo last week for evidence of this: https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/sligo-covid-cases-cluster-how-22284044

The virus is not circulating in the community but the chances of zero cases every day are probably fairly slim no matter what we do. As for that story the key word there is contained. That's what we will be doing - containing the outbreak to limited clusters.

spockety

I think at this stage I might be missing something. Everyone on both the political side and the medical side have been saying, pretty much since the begining of this, that a 2nd wave is inevitable. We were told that without a vaccine we would see small waves going up and down and up and down, and that the objective was to flatten the curve in that first wave so that we didn't overwhelm our healthcare system.

We didn't overwhelm our healthcare system (yes we went through great difficulties and our healthcare staff are heroes), and the reality is that personal behaviours are a lot different now than they were back in Jan/Feb. Way more people working from home, personal choices to social distance, personal choices around improved hygiene etc. Surely any 2nd wave (and 3rd, and 4th, and 5th until the vaccine comes) will be just as managable as the first if not more so?

A lot of realism from March around living with waves of the virus until we have a vaccine, have given way to some idealism around completely eradicating the virus without a vaccine?

is_that_so

spockety wrote: »

I think at this stage I might be missing something. Everyone on both the political side and the medical side have been saying, pretty much since the begining of this, that a 2nd wave is inevitable. We were told that without a vaccine we would see small waves going up and down and up and down, and that the objective was to flatten the curve in that first wave so that we didn't overwhelm our healthcare system.

We didn't overwhelm our healthcare system (yes we went through great difficulties and our healthcare staff are heroes), and the reality is that personal behaviours are a lot different now than they were back in Jan/Feb. Way more people working from home, personal choices to social distance, personal choices around improved hygiene etc. Surely any 2nd wave (and 3rd, and 4th, and 5th until the vaccine comes) will be just as managable as the first if not more so?

A lot of realism from March around living with waves of the virus until we have a vaccine, have given way to some idealism around completely eradicating the virus without a vaccine?

The term really irks the DoH team and they prefer to call it resurgence or reemergence. Our current knowledge, alert level and much better systems suggest it is not going to be as much of a challenge.

Onesea

Any more news on the hse operative forwarding files to wiki leaks? Have heard they have over estimated case amounts by 59%

jim salter

celt262 wrote: »

Are you two months behind all the time?

All the time?

Stalker much?

seefin

Onesea wrote: »

Any more news on the hse operative forwarding files to wiki leaks? Have heard they have over estimated case amounts by 59%

Is that the IT contractor in Cork ? Yeah dying to know what he discovered

peterofthebr

in march there was allot of fear. the next wave wont be as bad (i hope) here. if clusters appears and it came from abroad - will they still let flights in? shops will prob decide if they are going to close themselves...usa economy might start to slow as cases continue to increase

stephenjmcd

peterofthebr wrote: »

in march there was allot of fear. the next wave wont be as bad (i hope) here. if clusters appears and it came from abroad - will they still let flights in? shops will prob decide if they are going to close themselves...usa economy might start to slow as cases continue to increase

Still is alot of fear, 74% believe there's going to be a second wave according to the dept press conference

Onesea

Onesea wrote: »

Any more news on the hse operative forwarding files to wiki leaks? Have heard they have over estimated case amounts by 59%

Source or back to WhatsApp is my view on these posts

ZX7R

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Still is alot of fear, 74% believe there's going to be a second wave according to the dept press conference

The fact is there is a set criteria to a second wave of the virus it can found on the world health organisation Web site
Currently no country in the world is experiencing one.
Some countries are experiencing spikes.
There are a very few countries / areas in the world that could have a second wave as they have zero cases for a certain length of time.
The biggest factor for a second wave would be unrestricted growth.
I can't see that been aloud to happen

stephenjmcd

ZX7R wrote: »

The fact is there is a set criteria to a second wave of the virus it can found on the world health organisation Web site
Currently no country in the world is experiencing one.
Some countries are experiencing spikes.
There are a very few countries / areas in the world that could have a second wave as they have zero cases for a certain length of time.
The biggest factor for a second wave would be unrestricted growth.
I can't see that been aloud to happen

I agree with you, some people see handful of cases and jump straight to second wave, countries with localised spikes and its a second wave.

There isn't unresolved growth, any spikes appear to be quickly brought under control

ZX7R

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I agree with you, some people see handful of cases and jump straight to second wave, countries with localised spikes and its a second wave.

There isn't unresolved growth, any spikes appear to be quickly brought under control

I don't mean this in a conspiracy way.
But It's been used as a weapon of fear, easy way to get the mas population to conply.

froog

i don't know how people figure there won't be a second wave to be honest. no vaccine, no herd immunity and now no lockdown. it's rampant globally and we're approaching autumn. people need to start mentally preparing themselves for it and not becoming complacent.

dfx-

Danno wrote: »

Yes. From all countries that have failed to get their virus levels to where ours are at, and only if they have the same level of border control. For example, there is no use of Ireland and Greece having an air-bridge if the Greeks are allowing Sweden and Britain in there. A chain is as strong as it's weakest link.

That's completely unrealistic. Even that doesn't eradicate the risk, do you close the border with Northern Ireland?

Public health officials are extremely risk averse, so it's no surprise to see them delay decisions and not commit due to a 'fear' of a second wave. They would happily not decide anything until there is a vaccine. But the virus is still here on July 20th, what are they waiting for?

We share a border with the UK.

We could close ourselves off to every, single, other country on the planet but the border with those negligent **** is going nowhere.

A second wave is inevitable whatever we do. Get some testing at the airport organised, wear a mask, and don't act the bollocks.

Stark

Stark wrote: »

Still dealing with small numbers where volatility is naturally going to be high. At least wait for a couple of more days of data before identifying a trend. We've had days over the past few weeks with > 20 cases then the next day it was as low as 4.

Quoting so I can say I called it

leanin2019

froog wrote: »

i don't know how people figure there won't be a second wave to be honest. no vaccine, no herd immunity and now no lockdown. it's rampant globally and we're approaching autumn. people need to start mentally preparing themselves for it and not becoming complacent.

True,

Although we have been gradually opening up since start May and the numbers have remained surprisingly low...

But your right seems to be rampant globally after others opened up

I agree with you and many of the experts have said the same but I guess we shall see..

Jimmy Garlic

froog wrote: »

i don't know how people figure there won't be a second wave to be honest. no vaccine, no herd immunity and now no lockdown. it's rampant globally and we're approaching autumn. people need to start mentally preparing themselves for it and not becoming complacent.

It is so scary. I am so afraid. We need to be placed under house arrest again or there will be an apocalypse. Let’s all stay at home and watch Glen Hansard sing cringey songs on RTE until no one ever dies ever again.

ednwireland

leanin2019 wrote: »

True,

Although we have been gradually opening up since start May and the numbers have remained surprisingly low...

But your right seems to be rampant globally after others opened up

i think places opened up without having any lockdown first and claimed it was under control. india for one , i suspect they are experiencing their first wave in reality. but honestly with the lies and Obfuscation that all the agencies are putting out who really knows where anyone is on the curve

Snow Garden

Some people have less than 100 toilet rolls stockpiled now. A 2nd wave is going to hit them hardest.

I agree though, a 2nd wave is inevitable. The question is when and what the restrictions impact will be.

Macy0161

leanin2019 wrote: »

True,

Although we have been gradually opening up since start May and the numbers have remained surprisingly low...

But your right seems to be rampant globally after others opened up

I agree with you and many of the experts have said the same but I guess we shall see..

Limited international travel has been the reason it's been stalled within the State. It's when those that couldn't wait to give Ryanair their money come back we'll see an impact.

Jimmy Garlic

Snow Garden wrote: »

Some people have less than 100 toilet rolls stockpiled now. A 2nd wave is going to hit them hardest.

I agree though, a 2nd wave is inevitable. The question is when and what the restrictions impact will be.

Every other ailment got cured when bat flu came along, didn’t you know? Cancer, no problem, no need to screen for that. heart disease, what about it, diabetes, no problem. I think we should just never go out again just in case. Who needs a job anyway? we could just watch Netflix, worship our hero’s, use copious amounts of bog roll, bake cakes and listen to Glen Hansard until the sun burns out.

John_Rambo

I reckon November. Won't be bad and there'll be localised lockdowns, not nationwide.

Jimmy Garlic

John_Rambo wrote: »

I reckon November. Won't be bad and there'll be localised lockdowns, not nationwide.

In the run up to Christmas? It would be bad for whatever localities are locked down of course . Destroying peoples livelihoods with this great leap backwards chi-com inspired nonsense isn’t the answer. Protecting the small minority of people who are at risk and letting the vast majority for whom this virus is not an issue get on with their lives is.

JP Liz V1

Travel cases increasing

saabsaab

froog wrote: »

i don't know how people figure there won't be a second wave to be honest. no vaccine, no herd immunity and now no lockdown. it's rampant globally and we're approaching autumn. people need to start mentally preparing themselves for it and not becoming complacent.

You are making sense. Almost certain.

Quantum Erasure

Christmas FM was on air today....

https://i.redd.it/nscpxhhq99vx.jpg