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2020 US Election

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    #272
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,622 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Will the betting markets close as soon as the first polls close or how does it work?

    They will keep open until a result is known for that/each market.


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    #273
    BQQ
    Registered Users Posts: 2,100 ✭✭✭BQQ


    okidoki987 wrote: »
    They will keep open until a result is known for that/each market.

    Biden down to 1.47 on Betfair
    Has sanity finally begun to set in?


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    #274
    ianburke
    Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    my 4/1 never got matched so i've taken it down. haven't any interest in the outcome now. best of luck to all the biden backers, and Accumulator! too!


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    #275
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users Posts: 19,662 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Trump currently 3.1 on Betfair exchange, Biden 1.47.

    The Economist forecast now puts Bidens chances of winning the electoral college at 96%
    https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

    If they're right that 1.47 on Biden will look like free money in 12 hours time


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    #276
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,622 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    BQQ wrote: »
    Biden down to 1.47 on Betfair
    Has sanity finally begun to set in?

    Possibly but early days.
    You have to wait for the rumour machine to start up. ;)
    Some will be true, some most will be false but it's a minefield to sort them out in time.
    You will always get people who have open positions, putting out false rumours to "help" their positions.


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    #277
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,622 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Trump currently 3.1 on Betfair exchange, Biden 1.47.

    The Economist forecast now puts Bidens chances of winning the electoral college at 96%
    https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

    If they're right that 1.47 on Biden will look like free money in 12 hours time

    Could be all right.
    €356 million matched so far :rolleyes: and that's just on next president market.
    Even assuming every part of that is on 2% commission rate (unlikely), that is over €7 million in commission.
    Assume that why Paddy Power shares are hitting all time highs.


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    #278
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,556 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    okidoki987 wrote: »
    They will keep open until a result is known for that/each market.

    But are they not running a massive risk that way?

    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Depends on Florida doesn't it?

    I think that's called early enough, if Trump win the market will be insane, genuinely would not be shocked to see him go odds on.

    If he loses Florida, its done, I don't see any other path whatsoever,,,,,,,could be a train then for Biden.

    If someone gets a heads-up from a mate in the Florida count centre that Biden has it, before the media get word, could they not make a killing?


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    #279
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,274 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    But are they not running a massive risk that way?

    With a market of this size all the bets on one side are balanced by bets on the other side. If there is an imbalance in the volume of bets, the price moves to act as an equilibrium point.

    For smaller bookies they might not have this same liquidity so what they often do is offset their risk onto other bookmakers in order to reduce their exposure to a negative outcome.


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    #280
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,622 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    But are they not running a massive risk that way?




    If someone gets a heads-up from a mate in the Florida count centre that Biden has it, before the media get word, could they not make a killing?

    No the odds will have changed to probably 1.02 area.

    They could but they would have to get hold of someone who could get a large bet on and they may not be able to do it in time.

    Wouldn't be the first time something like that has happened, used to happen all the time in shows like XFactor.
    Some guy on the XFactor got fired years ago for texting his mates with the results of the eliminations before they were made public.


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    #281
    byronbay2
    Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭byronbay2


    It's about to get exciting! Have emptied the entire BF clip on Biden @ 1.52. Unfortunately, did the same on Hilary 4 years ago so only hoping to get back to even!


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    #282
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,622 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    byronbay2 wrote: »
    It's about to get exciting! Have emptied the entire BF clip on Biden @ 1.52. Unfortunately, did the same on Hilary 4 years ago so only hoping to get back to even!

    GL.
    Currently watching and debating about having a bet on it :confused:.


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    #283
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users Posts: 19,662 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Early Florida results showing Trump is down about 2-3% on his 2016 numbers. Only about 10 counties are in though so its early days. Betfair is still 1.49 on Biden and 3 on Trump.


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    #284
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,556 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Trump suddenly in close to evens with some bookies:eek: Wonder what's driving that...


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    #285
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,622 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    On Biden at 1.77 which is either going to be :D or :eek:.
    Let's see ;).


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    #286
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,622 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Trump suddenly in close to evens with some bookies:eek: Wonder what's driving that...

    Rumour he's done well in Florida?


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    #287
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,556 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    okidoki987 wrote: »
    Rumour he's done well in Florida?

    Would winning Florida put him truly neck and neck overall?


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    #288
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Would winning Florida put him truly neck and neck overall?

    Not really, think it's a consequence of last time. Biden should still win w/o Florida, especially since it looks like it's just Miami that's going to cost him. But last time it was the first of many little disappointments.


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    #289
    Bobeagleburger
    Registered Users Posts: 45,520 ✭✭✭✭Bobeagleburger


    Biden touched 1.9 on betfair a few mins ago!


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    #290
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,622 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Would winning Florida put him truly neck and neck overall?

    Florida is one of the key states or so I've heard.
    Imagine if we had a count like they do :eek:.


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    #291
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,622 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    Biden heading back down currently at 1.55 now.


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    #292
    franglan
    Registered Users Posts: 1,377 ✭✭✭franglan


    In on Biden at 5/6. Ohio counties looking very promising for general turn to Biden in mid west.


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    #293
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,556 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Biden in close to 1/2 with most bookies. I'm guessing the picture is firming up in his favour in the blue wall of Pennsylvania/Wisconsin/Michigan. If he wins those that effectively settles it


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    #294
    greenfield21
    Registered Users Posts: 998 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    Trump now favourite


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    #295
    Bobeagleburger
    Registered Users Posts: 45,520 ✭✭✭✭Bobeagleburger


    Biden 3.25 now!!


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    #296
    JoeCasey
    Registered Users Posts: 52 ✭✭JoeCasey


    Trump 4/9
    Biden 17/10

    paddy


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    #297
    greenfield21
    Registered Users Posts: 998 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    greenfield21 wrote: »
    AZ,MI,WI,PA,NC 305/6-232 Trump wins.

    Already give my reasons so not going drivel on but trumps ground game, inaccurate polls due to virus, voter registrations, people voting with there pockets- polls showing satisfaction with economy. Where biden needs to win votes climate change and reducing oil output will not help him.

    Should have put more on this, still could be a suprise in midwest but doubt it..


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    #298
    ianburke
    Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    trump 1.27 now.

    does anyone know what happened to Accumulator(aka the only bloke who seems to be on trump and took a lot of abuse)? i thought he had left the thread after the stick he was getting but i can't seem to find him now or see his posts which is quite odd.


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    #299
    Bobeagleburger
    Registered Users Posts: 45,520 ✭✭✭✭Bobeagleburger


    ianburke wrote: »
    trump 1.27 now.

    does anyone know what happened to Accumulator(aka the only bloke who seems to be on trump and took a lot of abuse)? i thought he had left the thread after the stick he was getting but i can't seem to find him now or see his posts which is quite odd.

    Was he banned and changed his name?


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    #300
    adrian522
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 16,129 Mod ✭✭✭✭adrian522


    I think he caught the China Flu from Sleepy Joe.


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    #301
    FatRat
    Registered Users Posts: 3,194 ✭✭✭FatRat


    Astronomical money going on this and that's just on the 1 presidential winner market.

    There has been 55m matched in the past 5 hours on Betfair exchange.

    Has anyone ever seen a more liquid market before?


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