2020 US Election

simongurnick

Betfair said yesterday they had already taken more than the world cup final, Mayweather McGregor and last grand national combined. That's insane

paddythere

Trump still 6/5 on betstars/pokerstars

votecounts

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1323606991433048064
This man will have a heart attack:)

paddythere

Have they still not declared Florida? I heard he won there hours ago and have a big bet on Republicans to win it and it hasn't been settled

Outlaw Pete

votecounts wrote: »

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1323606991433048064
This man will have a heart attack:)

Crikey, I only have €100 on him and I'm not far off having one myself, what a night ...

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Backed Trump at 2.95 to get reelected

Although, if he has €5m to be wagering with, I'd say he won't be too badly enough whatever the outcome.

Ballsy bet all the same.

Homelander

Trump has clearly won at this point, or am I wrong? With the remaining states almost all having a Trump lead.

Outlaw Pete

Mail in voting still to be counted in some states ..

Florida counted theirs early but unfortunately some states like PA had no intention of doing that, sought an extension, and were granted it:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/us/supreme-court-pennsylvania-voting.html

Homelander

Homelander wrote: »

Trump has clearly won at this point, or am I wrong? With the remaining states almost all having a Trump lead.

Both the areas and type (mail/early) of the outstanding votes heavily favours Biden. It's a toss-up at this point.

mailburner

10/11 for each tells the story

so called experts predicting Biden will pip it

okidoki987

mailburner wrote: »

10/11 for each tells the story

so called experts predicting Biden will pip it

and then the court cases.......

Fr Tod Umptious

Why the big swing towards Biden in the last hour on Betfair ?

Trump is now as high as 2.52, not that long ago he was well below 2

Outlaw Pete

Lots of info was released about just where the 1.4 million uncounted PA votes were coming from and it would seem they are largely from democrat areas and mail-in leans towards dems anyway, so good chance Biden takes it given Trump is only 670,000 votes or so ahead.

okidoki987

https://graphs.betfair.com/#/1.128151441/10874213/0

Here's a chart and a half for the last few hours, Trump price on Betfair Exchange!

Loafing Oaf

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Why the big swing towards Biden in the last hour on Betfair ?

Trump is now as high as 2.52, not that long ago he was well below 2

Info coming out about mail-in votes in the rust belt states that seem to be leaning to Biden even heavier than anticipated.

Fr Tod Umptious

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Info coming out about mail-in votes in the rust belt states that seem to be leaning to Biden even heavier than anticipated.

Yep, Trump is back up to 3.1, that's were he was at around 9pm last night

Brussels Sprout

Christ that was some night. I wasn't expecting it to be this tight.

ianburke

wow went to bed with trump at 1.27 and now biden is 1.27. fascinating market

Widdensushi

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Info coming out about mail-in votes in the rust belt states that seem to be leaning to Biden even heavier than anticipated.

Trump obviously knew what was in them

schmoo2k

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Why the big swing towards Biden in the last hour on Betfair ?

Trump is now as high as 2.52, not that long ago he was well below 2

Don't forget betfail bias their odds based on the bets being placed (IOW if loads of folks placed bets on the independent candidate it would affect the odds even though they won't ever win).

schmoo2k

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Mail in voting still to be counted in some states ..

Florida counted theirs early but unfortunately some states like PA had no intention of doing that, sought an extension, and were granted it:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/us/supreme-court-pennsylvania-voting.html

While it ruins the excitement on the night, doesn't really matter when they count it - Dec 14 is when the tally needs to be complete by.

Loafing Oaf

So at what stage do the bookies pay out? Do we have to wait till all Trump's legal challenges are exhausted?

okidoki987

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

So at what stage do the bookies pay out? Do we have to wait till all Trump's legal challenges are exhausted?

Would normally say depends on the bookie to pay out before OR but the stakes are so high, I'd say nobody will pay out before the next president takes their seat in January.

This could go on for months if Trump loses and challenges the postal votes.

okidoki987

schmoo2k wrote: »

While it ruins the excitement on the night, doesn't really matter when they count it - Dec 14 is when the tally needs to be complete by.

That's before the probably legal challenges.

okidoki987

Mike Pence is 1000 (Maximum price allowed) on Betfair Exchange to back.
The Stakes were €10,561 about 2 hours ago, now it's €8,700 which means either people looking to lay him have pulled their bets or other people have backed him!
Now that would be funny.

Dodge

schmoo2k wrote: »

Don't forget betfail bias their odds based on the bets being placed (IOW if loads of folks placed bets on the independent candidate it would affect the odds even though they won't ever win).

Why is someone who doesn’t understand how exchanges work allowed post in a gambling thread

“Betfail bias their odds”

Jesus Christ

schmoo2k

Dodge wrote: »

Why is someone who doesn’t understand how exchanges work allowed post in a gambling thread

“Betfail bias their odds”

Jesus Christ

Ha - its a gambling thread, fell in here from the trending list, will duck and run!

ianburke

adrian522 wrote: »

I think he caught the China Flu from Sleepy Joe.

it appears Accumulator has been banned. not sure what he did but i for one will miss his unusual posts.

this thread has been a cracking read i have to say.

Muahahaha

ianburke wrote: »

it appears Accumulator has been banned. not sure what he did but i for one will miss his unusual posts.

this thread has been a cracking read i have to say.

aw thats a pity, I was hoping he would be back to tell us that Biden is going to drop dead any minute now and the smart money is on Kamala

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Christ that was some night. I wasn't expecting it to be this tight.

Its insane how tight it is, the pollsters have messed up yet again.

Did anyone here take a slice of Biden at 4/1 on the exchanges last night around midnight? Was tempted but didnt have the stomach for it as it was looking like a wave for Trump at that time. Im stilll sweating on a Biden bet from 18 months ago at 12/1, PP are currently offering me cashout at slightly below 10/1. I should probably just cut and run but everything is trending towards Biden right now, he is currently 1.2 on the exchanges.

adrian522

I backed him at 3/1 last night, missed out on the 4/1, was hoping it would drift further but it didn't.

Only a small bet but satisfying to get odds like that so late in the day.

I got it at 3, but it went back out to 3.6 after that but I didn't throw any further cash at it.

Loafing Oaf

Muahahaha wrote: »

Im stilll sweating on a Biden bet from 18 months ago at 12/1, PP are currently offering me cashout at slightly below 10/1.

I have a similar longstanding bet on Biden @ 10/1 with Bet365. For some reason cashout seems to be frozen at about half the jackpot. I'd take it if it properly reflected current odds but i'd say I'm safe enough holding out for the full thing.