2020 US Election

Brussels Sprout

okidoki987 wrote: »

On the exchanges, she went from 290 straight back out to 530 and now 2 hours later, she's down to 380.
Somebody is backing her at big odds.

Makes very little sense. Biden would need to literally die in the next few hours (or days) for someone to win that bet. I say that as someone who threw a bet on her @ 700/1 because I mistakenly thought the market was not going to be called until December or January.

Brussels Sprout

Muahahaha wrote: »

Cashing out now probably is the best thing to do because at a minimum there is going to be a recount in Wisconsin and Georgia and maybe Nevada too. Could be looking at about two weeks for that alone. I checked PP there and they're still offering me just over 10/1 on a 12/1 bet on Biden to win.

When was Biden 12/1 to win? Right after the New Hampshire primary? Fair play if you took a punt on him then. I thought it was only a matter of time before he called it a day at that time.

okidoki987

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Makes very little sense. Biden would need to literally die in the next few hours (or days) for someone to win that bet. I say that as someone who threw a bet on her @ 700/1 because I mistakenly thought the market was not going to be called until December or January.

Yeah it doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
Only reason might be someone trying to hedge a Biden position and worried he may die before January after being elected.
Having said that, I stuck up an offer at 1,000 on a non Betfair exchange on her being next President just for the laugh and got matched for just over €1 so far so I'll be cheering her on between now and January :rolleyes:.

Atlantis50

Atlantis50 wrote: »

So I placed a relatively substantial bet (per attached screenshot) on Biden to win (& to do so with 52-54.99% of the vote, the Harris bet was a hedge in unlikely event that Biden dies/became incapacitated before the election) at the start of September after it was clear that the convention and rioting was not to Trump's benefit politically and the bookies odds seemed far too bearish on Biden and Bullish on Trump.

I think the most likely outcome will be like 2008 in terms of popular vote (Trump on 45 or 46, Biden on 53 or 54) with Biden comprehensively winning the electoral college.

Why?

1) Trump only very narrowly won in 2016 with 46% of the vote, losing the popular vote by 3 million and only getting to the magic number of 270+ by winning 70k votes in three swing states. He needed to expand beyond his base but has not done so, and has consistently hovered at around 40-45% support and approval - not enough to win in the absence of a strong third party candidate (there is none) and a Democratic opponent as unpopular as him (Biden is not as unpopular as Hillary was)
2) Biden polling much stronger nationally and in swing states than Hillary was at the same time in 2016.

I only rarely place bets, the last one on politics being €60@16/1 on Peter Casey to finish 2nd in the 2018 Irish presidential election which turned out nicely.

Could of course still lose this bet but I'm growing more confident by the day, the concern now being Biden getting over 55% :eek:

So the main bet on Biden looking good right now (win of 1k on 5/6 odds).

The 52-54.99% bet looking a bit more uncertain, with some predictions Biden might get around 52% but it will be touch and go.

The Kamala bet was always a long shot and just a hedge to get my stake back in case Joe kicked the bucket.

I was logged on to the Paddy Power website on election night/early morning and odds were fluctuating wildly when it appeared Trump might actually pull off another upset. When it reached Evens, I decided I wanted in on another Biden bet and by the time I had transferred the money to place the bet it was 6/5 which I took, only to see it reaching as far as 17/10 about 15 minutes later. :eek:

Bets to be settled at 10:00 Sunday per the online betting slip so I presume they've stepped back from their article yesterday that was posted on this thread (which can no longer be found without using Google cache) stating they would settle bets when all legal actions have been resolved or the winner is formally certified by the electoral college in December.

okidoki987

After a lot of ducking and diving over last few weeks, this is my current P&L.

BIDEN €107
TRUMP €302
HARRIS €5874
ANO €33

All positive but not really worth the hassle and time spent on it.

PopePalpatine

CNN and Fox have just called Pennsylvania for Biden.

Feck, I could've won just over €30 if Nevada counted faster.

Brussels Sprout

Biden still available at 1.05 on BetFair. Free Money

Brussels Sprout

PopePalpatine wrote: »

CNN and Fox have just called Pennsylvania for Biden.

Feck, I could've won just over €30 if Nevada counted faster.

I think the definition of Tipping Point might not be about the order in which they were called but in the one that puts him over 270 when you line them up by the % for Biden in each state.

Dante7

Bet365 have paid out on Biden.

antimatterx

Dante7 wrote: »

Bet365 have paid out on Biden.

I'm still waiting :mad:

Loafing Oaf

antimatterx wrote: »

I'm still waiting :mad:

Paid for me

Dante7

antimatterx wrote: »

I'm still waiting :mad:

I'm still waiting on Ladbrokes and Betonline for Biden. I could be waiting a while on my Georgia bet.

Brussels Sprout

Paddy Power and Betfair haven't closed out the market either. They're owned by the same parent company so will likely go together.

antimatterx

Bet365 have finally paid out.

Easy money

Atlantis50

Paddy Power have paid out.

Brussels Sprout

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Paddy Power and Betfair haven't closed out the market either. They're owned by the same parent company so will likely go together.

Nope. PP have paid out but Bf have not.

Ha Long Bay

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Nope. PP have paid out but Bf have not.

Betfair paid out on my open bets.

Augme

Befair exchange is still open. Can still get 1.04 on biden which is free money at this stage.

okidoki987

Can't understand why would any bookmaker pay out in the "next president" market now?
Biden has won the election but he's not going to be the next USA president until inauguration on Jan 20th 2021 and a lot could happen between then and now.
This will obviously be a big price but what happens if xyz bookmaker pays out on Biden, Biden dies before the 20th Jan and Harris (VP) then becomes president.
Harris was anywhere between 200 and 1000/1.
So xyz bookmaker having paid out on Biden, now has to pay out on Harris as well, which you would assume is big loser for all bookmakers and that could be a lot of extra money to be paid out.
3 of the 4 betting exchanges I know of are still taking bets, the other 1 has settled Biden as a winner but I would expect that has to change.
Would be even worse for an exchange as having paid out on Biden and resulted all the others bets on the rest of them, 2 months later, how could they pay the people who backed Harris at say 500/1 as the layers bets have been cancelled in November and so they don't have the funds anymore.

Brussels Sprout

okidoki987 wrote: »

Can't understand why would any bookmaker pay out in the "next president" market now?
Biden has won the election but he's not going to be the next USA president until inauguration on Jan 20th 2021 and a lot could happen between then and now.
This will obviously be a big price but what happens if xyz bookmaker pays out on Biden, Biden dies before the 20th Jan and Harris (VP) then becomes president.
Harris was anywhere between 200 and 1000/1.
So xyz bookmaker having paid out on Biden, now has to pay out on Harris as well, which you would assume is big loser for all bookmakers and that could be a lot of extra money to be paid out.
3 of the 4 betting exchanges I know of are still taking bets, the other 1 has settled Biden as a winner but I would expect that has to change.
Would be even worse for an exchange as having paid out on Biden and resulted all the others bets on the rest of them, 2 months later, how could they pay the people who backed Harris at say 500/1 as the layers bets have been cancelled in November and so they don't have the funds anymore.

From reading the rules of that market (which I only spotted after I had backed Harris to insure against Biden dying before inauguration day) it will be closed when they deem the election to be beyond doubt. If that happens and subsequently Biden dies then tough luck - the Harris bets are still losers.

Brussels Sprout

PopePalpatine wrote: »

CNN and Fox have just called Pennsylvania for Biden.

Feck, I could've won just over €30 if Nevada counted faster.

I make it that this is the current state of play for the tipping point state. Wisconsin is just about there at the moment.




There's still a bit of movement to come with the votes to come but it's probably a long shot that wither NV or NC will be it now.

okidoki987

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

From reading the rules of that market (which I only spotted after I had backed Harris to insure against Biden dying before inauguration day) it will be closed when they deem the election to be beyond doubt. If that happens and subsequently Biden dies then tough luck - the Harris bets are still losers.

OOC who was that with?

Brussels Sprout

okidoki987 wrote: »

OOC who was that with?

BetFair Exchange

okidoki987

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

BetFair Exchange

Grand.
When I clicked on the rules I got this.

Who will be elected to be the next President of the United States of America as a result of the 2020 presidential election?

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

A load of people including myself, had like you, backed Harris as a form of insurance but if this is the case, then Harris could never win this bet or am I reading this wrong?
Also Harris must now then also be a lay at any price?

Brussels Sprout

okidoki987 wrote: »

Grand.
When I clicked on the rules I got this.



A load of people including myself, had like you, backed Harris as a form of insurance but if this is the case, then Harris could never win this bet or am I reading this wrong?
Also Harris must now then also be a lay at any price?

I did think it was a bit odd that I was able to get 700/1 on her 10 days or so ago when it had been 350/1 the week before.


The way I understand it now is that if Biden died or became incapacitated between when you placed your bet and the time that they close the market then you would win on her so long as they also won the election. That's probably still the case and why her odds have dropped to 400/1 now since one half of that requirement has occurred.

okidoki987

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I did think it was a bit odd that I was able to get 700/1 on her 10 days or so ago when it had been 350/1 the week before.

The way I understand it now is that if Biden died or became incapacitated between when you placed your bet and the time that they close the market then you would win on her so long as they also won the election. That's probably still the case and why her odds have dropped to 400/1 now since one half of that requirement has occurred.

Was looking at that myself, down to 370 now, I'll keep my €10 at 1000/1 going for the laugh.

Brussels Sprout

Muahahaha wrote: »

Also have Georgia at 7/1 as the tightest margin race....

You're getting a good sweat on this bet anyway. Just a few bullets left to dodge but so far so good.

okidoki987

okidoki987 wrote: »

Was looking at that myself, down to 370 now, I'll keep my €10 at 1000/1 going for the laugh.

She's down to 290 now :eek:.

Muahahaha

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

When was Biden 12/1 to win? Right after the New Hampshire primary? Fair play if you took a punt on him then. I thought it was only a matter of time before he called it a day at that time.

No, it wasnt after the NH primary and I thought he was a gonner then too until he had that great win in South Carolina and then Super Tuesday.

I backed him at 12/1 before he even announced he was actually going to run for President so at that time it was a triple bet, that he would run, that he would win the nomination and then that he would beat Trump. iirc it was aeound July 2019 that I placed the bet, I had read a couple of articles saying that the Biden camp was seriously considering a run and he was consulting with Obama and other leading Democrats about it. At that point PP had him at 12/1 but their traders missed the articles I read for at least a week and then it dropped to 9/1 when they finally realised he was actively considering it.

Its one thing Ive noticed with the PP traders and political betting, you can catch them on the hop if you are alert to new news that has an effect on the market but they dont pick up on it quick enough. Had a similar situation with Theresa May last year, news broke at 10pm that made her exit from No.10 almost certain and immediately I took 4/1 odds on the month of the next election. I can only presume their politics traders were in bed at the time because the following morning it was slashed down to evens with the bet eventually paying out.

Degag

Can odds be gotten anywhere on who the next President will be? The current market seems to be who the next President will be as a result of the election.

Would just be interested to see what odds there were on Pence becoming President in the interim if Don resigns or is forcibly removed.