2020 US Election

yaboya1

Muahahaha wrote: »

In that case the only hold up might be the recounts even though they arent going to overturn anything. Id guess with matched bets on an exchange they cant go settling early like the bookies do

The recounts/legal challenges are only happening in states that Biden won.
They will not impact the +140.5, +120.5, +100.5 and +80.5 markets, even if any of them are successful or cause a state to flip.
Anyone who backed Biden/laid Trump in those markets has lost. I don't see any reason whatsoever why they can't be settled.

WhiteMan32

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

It's pretty frustrating alright now. My entire bankroll on BFE is locked up in that market. I normally like to lay some draws on a Saturday afternoon but I can't do that. Had to take inferior odds as well for The Masters with PP.

At this stage we're going to need to wait for one the following to happen:

1. Trump Concedes directly or indirectly
2. He stops filing new law suits completely removing any possible path to victory for him
3. Biden is elected in the Electoral College on Dec 14th
4. Biden is inaugurated on Jan 20th (worst case scenario)

A spokesperson from Flutter Entertainment - the parent company of Betfair - said the wait is mainly to avoid a situation like in 2016 when some political betting exchanges prematurely paid out bets on Hillary Clinton to win the presidential election.

BQQ

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

A spokesperson from Flutter Entertainment - the parent company of Betfair - said the wait is mainly to avoid a situation like in 2016 when some political betting exchanges prematurely paid out bets on Hillary Clinton to win the presidential election.

Fair enough if they didn’t want to jump the gun, but it’s been abundantly clear for some time that Biden has won
Nothing like what happened to Clinton is even a possibility

okidoki987

BQQ wrote: »

Fair enough if they didn’t want to jump the gun, but it’s been abundantly clear for some time that Biden has won
Nothing like what happened to Clinton is even a possibility

Biden may have won the vote but he still has to become president.
There's no way betting exchanges can or should pay out on the "next president" market until the inaugurated happens.
Bookies slightly different but they all run the risk of having to pay out twice on the same market and in a market like that, the numbers would be massive.
It's a massive price and probably won't happen but.......you never know?

Rjd2

okidoki987 wrote: »

I understood somewhat the initial reluctance as the cost would be huge, but yes this is one of the times right now where we do know!

I gave them the benefit somewhat initially, but its been clear for the last few weeks especially recently that what Trump is doing is one final massive grift with Rudy and co along for the ride.

Pay out ffs.:o

Rjd2

premature settlement regarding Clinton?


I assume that was PP who paid out a few months early on Clinton for some cheap PR, this time round its totally different.

okidoki987

Rjd2 wrote: »

premature settlement regarding Clinton?


I assume that was PP who paid out a few months early on Clinton for some cheap PR, this time round its totally different.

Yeah different but the amounts involved would should have stopped
any payment before inauguration depending on what the t&c's were.
Appreciate there are people who need the money and want it settled but should have been treated as a market that wouldn't settle until early Jan.

I along with others have Harris backed with a betting exchange that paid out early.
They are currently praying nothing happens to Biden in the next few weeks as we will be looking to get paid at prices between 500 and 1000 and they don't have the layers stakes anymore as they are settled and money refunded/paid out.

Muahahaha

I suppose the problem is it is an exchange so they are not paying out their own money but the money of layers. Big difference when its a bookie paying out their own money. The exchange cant take the risk of paying out other peoples money and then later for some completely unexpected event to happen, be it a later Supreme Court ruling of election fraud or even Biden getting struck down by lightning. It sucks for those with winning bets but the exchange isnt playing around with their own money here and if something did happen in court or otherwise that stops Biden being President then that would then leave the exchange up the creek without a paddle.

okidoki987

Muahahaha wrote: »

I suppose the problem is it is an exchange so they are not paying out their own money but the money of layers. Big difference when its a bookie paying out their own money. The exchange cant take the risk of paying out other peoples money and then later for some completely unexpected event to happen, be it a later Supreme Court ruling of election fraud or even Biden getting struck down by lightning. It sucks for those with winning bets but the exchange isnt playing around with their own money here and if something did happen in court or otherwise that stops Biden being President then that would then leave the exchange up the creek without a paddle.

Spot on, just a pity the exchange that paid out didn't think of that before they made their decision.
If it does happen that Biden doesn't get in (lay at 1.04), not sure how or where they are going to get the money from to pay the punters?

adrian522

okidoki987 wrote: »

Biden may have won the vote but he still has to become president.
There's no way betting exchanges can or should pay out on the "next president" market until the inaugurated happens.
Bookies slightly different but they all run the risk of having to pay out twice on the same market and in a market like that, the numbers would be massive.
It's a massive price and probably won't happen but.......you never know?

The settlement rules are based on projected electoral college votes. if they are not going to pay out until inauguration they should have stated that in the market rules.

The projected electoral college winner has been clear for 2 weeks now.

Easy decision for Betfair to hold onto the €800m and claim interest on this cash for as long as possible. Not exactly ethical though.

okidoki987

adrian522 wrote: »

The projected electoral college winner has been clear for 2 weeks now.

Unless Trump gets lucky somewhere and I'd say that's one reason they haven't paid out yet.

Easy decision for Betfair to hold onto the €800m and claim interest on this cash for as long as possible

Cheap cash for them but I'd say they are getting paid little or nothing on the money.

Augme

The market should have been settled about two weeks ago. St this stage they will settle it based on the official electoral college votes on 14 December I assume.

Obviously for people who have money tied up in it then it is frustrating (I'm one) but for people who have saved to use it is has basically free money for the last 3 weeks with a ROI you wouldn't get anywhere else.

Muahahaha

Ive only one outstanding bet left from the election, Georgia to be the smallest winning percentage margin at 8/1. They hand counted all 5 million odd votes and Bidens win went from 14,000 odd votes to about 12,670 which is a margin of 0.2% between the candidates. Arizona is the next closest margin at 0.3% across 3 million odd votes. I thought that PP would pay out once the recount confirmed the bet on Thursday but now Trump himself has now gone and requested another full recount so its set to rumble on for another fortnight at the very least.

okidoki987

Next president market on BF exchange has gone over €1 billion :eek:.
Joe Biden is currently 1.04/1.05, €3.7 million x €4.1 million.
By the time they end up settling it, I wonder will anything ever get close to the turnover on it in the future?

Brussels Sprout

Muahahaha wrote: »

I noticed also that the bookies are offering odds on AOC at 16/1 which is completely disingenuous as she is too young to qualify to even run for it.

She's eligible. She turned 31 last month so not only would be be 35 on inauguration day in January 2025 but she'd even be 35 for the night of the election in 2024 as well.

Not that I think she has a hope of winning. I could see her maybe running just to take the progressive torch from Bernie and to get some experience on a national stage. I think she'd be better off targeting a Senate seat though.

Brussels Sprout

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1331013908971261953


Checked my Betfair Exchange account. They still haven't paid out.

Only difference is that Biden is now 1.03 in that market.

okidoki987

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1331013908971261953


Checked my Betfair Exchange account. They still haven't paid out.

Only difference is that Biden is now 1.03 in that market.

I'd be astonished if Betfair pay out before Jan 5th.

Next president market is €10.7 million at 1.03 and €4.9 million at 1.04.
Would take a lot of money to move that.

Brussels Sprout

okidoki987 wrote: »

I'd be astonished if Betfair pay out before Jan 5th.

Next president market is €10.7 million at 1.03 and €4.9 million at 1.04.
Would take a lot of money to move that.

I could maybe understand there being some interest in the Biden market due to the non-zero chance that he actually dies in the next 2 months (given his age*) but who the hell is still backing Trump at this stage!



*According to this site there's a 1 in 15 chance that a man in his age range dies in any given year. So probably a 1 in 90 chance in 2 months. Biden's probably had great health care his whole life and looks in pretty good nick so it's probably more like 1 in 200 for him.

Augme

okidoki987 wrote: »

I'd be astonished if Betfair pay out before Jan 5th.

Next president market is €10.7 million at 1.03 and €4.9 million at 1.04.
Would take a lot of money to move that.

If betfair wait that long then they'd be breaking their own rules for the market.

okidoki987

but who the hell is still backing Trump at this stage!

I'd say it's punters/bookies hedging bets, people taking profits or taking new positions at bigger prices on Trump for whatever reason.
There's not a lot of news that will move Trump's price down much but there's always people playing the ranges.

Rjd2

Paddy Power have now priced up 2024 and its utterly horrific.

https://www.paddypower.com/politics

okidoki987

Augme wrote: »

If betfair wait that long then they'd be breaking their own rules for the market.

Turnover is now over €1.1 billion, that's up €100 million over 2 days!
That's (assume a 2% rate) €2 million in commission so they will hold out as long as they can.

Brussels Sprout

Rjd2 wrote: »

Paddy Power have now priced up 2024 and its utterly horrific.

https://www.paddypower.com/politics

Some notable lowlights:

• Orin Hatch. Retired from the Senate 2 years ago. Would be 90 years old in 4 years - 80/1
• Joe Kennedy III - failed to get elected to the Senate in MA as a Kennedy this year - 66/1
• Hillary Clinton - 50/1
• AOC - hated by half the country and frightens the life out of half of the other half. Also would barely be 35 - 12/1

Best price that I can see there is Biden himself at 7/1 - not that I'd be tying up any money for the next 4 years.

Brussels Sprout

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Some notable lowlights:

• Orin Hatch. Retired from the Senate 2 years ago. Would be 90 years old in 4 years - 80/1
• Joe Kennedy III - failed to get elected to the Senate in MA as a Kennedy this year - 66/1
• Hillary Clinton - 50/1
• AOC - hated by half the country and frightens the life out of half of the other half. Also would barely be 35 - 12/1

Best price that I can see there is Biden himself at 7/1 - not that I'd be tying up any money for the next 4 years.

Plus the way US politics is, I'd expect that list to drastically change in the next 4 years with the exception of Harris.

Rjd2

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Some notable lowlights:

• Orin Hatch. Retired from the Senate 2 years ago. Would be 90 years old in 4 years - 80/1
• Joe Kennedy III - failed to get elected to the Senate in MA as a Kennedy this year - 66/1
• Hillary Clinton - 50/1
• AOC - hated by half the country and frightens the life out of half of the other half. Also would barely be 35 - 12/1

Best price that I can see there is Biden himself at 7/1 - not that I'd be tying up any money for the next 4 years.

At least with AOC I can understand them going a crap price as she will be backed by Joe Public but some of the others...


Beto 22/1 - lost to Cruz in texas in a senate race and ran a horrific president campaign this time round.

Eric Holder 25/1

---

I don't even know where to begin here.

Paul Ryan - Hated by the Trumpers, hated by the soft Trumpers and never trumpers and is busy on the fox board making fortunes. Ok.


Bernie 33/1 - Would be 82 in 2024.:eek:

Deval Patrick 40/1 - ran this time round and don't think even his wife knew he ran.

Tim Ryan 50/1 - See above.

That's even before I start looking at the 100/1 shots which are horrific value, Mitch, Graham and Williamson for various reasons.

Rjd2

They've not actually quoted Crenshaw, Hawley, Scott and De Santiis either. :rolleyes:

Realistically can't see anyone daring to primary Biden or more likely Harris, maybe some of the more lefty people from the HOR but even then it won't be someone like AOC. It will be someone running to raise their profile, force either to the left etc. Someone like AOC always falls into line with what the establishment of the party wants bar a few rowdy tweets here and their.

Brussels Sprout

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1331013908971261953


Checked my Betfair Exchange account. They still haven't paid out.

Only difference is that Biden is now 1.03 in that market.

Biden now 1.08 - wtf??

okidoki987

Couldn't be from this could it?
https://www.fox6now.com/news/nearly-400-uncounted-ballots-found-in-wisconsin-recount

€1.167 Billion now traded on next president market, that's a massive move and a massive amount traded.
Trump moved from 35 to 13 on BE, that's some move.
The thing that worries me, would somebody know something to move both Biden and Trump by that much?

Brussels Sprout

It's a stretch that that would be the trigger unless people have a fundamental misunderstanding of the state of the counting & certification at present.

First of all, those 400 votes are basically immaterial at this stage. They are a tiny fraction of the overall margin in that state and, given that they are from Milwaukee, they are quite possibly majority Biden anyway.

Apart from that Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania have all been certified at this stage. The only swing states remaining to certify are Arizona and Wisconsin. Even if you miraculously gave Trump both of those he'd still lose 285-253.

He literally has no legal path to victory (and it doesn't look like there is any enthusiasm out there for any of the illegal paths). If my bankroll wasn't already tied up in that market I'd be laying it all on Trump at 13.0 (since that'd also cover the scenario where something happens health-wise to Biden)

okidoki987

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

It's a stretch that that would be the trigger unless people have a fundamental misunderstanding of the state of the counting & certification at present.

First of all, those 400 votes are basically immaterial at this stage. They are a tiny fraction of the overall margin in that state and, given that they are from Milwaukee, they are quite possibly majority Biden anyway.

Apart from that Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania have all been certified at this stage. The only swing states remaining to certify are Arizona and Wisconsin. Even if you miraculously gave Trump both of those he'd still lose 285-253.

He literally has no legal path to victory (and it doesn't look like there is any enthusiasm out there for any of the illegal paths). If my bankroll wasn't already tied up in that market I'd be laying it all on Trump at 13.0 (since that'd also cover the scenario where something happens health-wise to Biden)

That's what I was thinking but maybe people saying if there's one, there could be lots more but there's no immediate reason for it moving that much.
Someone must have done a bucket load and you'd have to wonder why or for what reason?