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2020 US Election

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,983 ✭✭✭Augme


    Rjd2 wrote: »


    Beto 22/1 - lost to Cruz in texas in a senate race and ran a horrific president campaign this time round.

    He did very well in that Texas senate race though and it would have been a massive shock if he beat Cruz. There was massive hype for him in the Presedential and he was poor though. However, I'd also argue his performance wasn't necessarily any worse than Harris. 22/1 wouldn't be for me but I would rather back Beto at 22/1 than Harris at her odds. I thought she was really poor in the democratic race. The next four years she might learn a lot though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,662 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Just off online chat with PP and they are still not paying out my bet on Georgia being the tightest % winning margin, this despite it being confirmed by the first count and again with the recount which came in two weeks ago. Agent said they are not settling it until all legal cases are over and the situation is clear :rolleyes: Seems to be a case of Pedantic Paddy


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,100 ✭✭✭BQQ


    Enough states have certified now to take him over 270 electoral college votes
    Still no market settlement from Betfair


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,273 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    BQQ wrote: »
    Enough states have certified now to take him over 270 electoral college votes
    Still no market settlement from Betfair

    Trump is already making noises about running in 2024 so the jig is up. It's difficult to tell from their crap graphs but it looks like the volumes have fallen off a cliff recently on that market so they're likely not even making too much money on it anymore. I suspect they will close it on Dec 14th after the Electoral College meets as that will give them something definite on which to base the closure on.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,101 ✭✭✭Bambaata


    Hope the do soon, i managed to get Biden at 3.05 :) and it bugs me every time i go onto the app thats there's still one there to be settled! Crazy amount of money traded even when Biden below 1.1! Betfair are on a winner here in commssion!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 45,520 ✭✭✭✭Bobeagleburger


    Electoral college meeting tomorrow for the casting of votes :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,662 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    6 wrote: »
    Electoral college meeting tomorrow for the casting of votes :)

    Today should finally draw a line under this mess, unless Betfair are going to go with the 'Biden might die' angle for a further 5 weeks until inauguration on Jan 20th. PP still havent pad me out on Georgia being the closest winning margin, this is depsite them paying out another bet I had for 300-330 EC votes which was underlined by the same data of the Georgia vote. So they're accepting that Biden won Georgia after it was counted twice but not accepting that it was by the smallest margin of 12,000 votes. Bit of a joke really.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,361 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Today should finally draw a line under this mess, unless Betfair are going to go with the 'Biden might die' angle for a further 5 weeks until inauguration on Jan 20th.

    Was the market next president or win the election?


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,662 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    I think it was next president so the exchanges are technically entitled to wait until Jan 20th. But also that they paid out a lot sooner in 2016, iirc as soon as Hillary conceeded they settled the market. I suppose this mess is of Trumps making really, because he is refusing to concede the exchanges would be in trouble if they paid out and he later won a court case and something got overturned. The court route is exhausted now and the electoral college votes later today but I still wouldnt be surprised if they wait until Biden puts his hand on that Bible and takes the oath on Jan 20th. A pain in the arse for winners, some people will have their whole pot tied up in it past Christmas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 45,520 ✭✭✭✭Bobeagleburger


    8-10 wrote: »
    Was the market next president or win the election?

    Next President


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,610 ✭✭✭yaboya1


    Betfair's behaviour on the settlement of a lot of markets in this US election has been absolutely disgraceful.

    They're not abiding by their own market rules, while also being completely inconsistent with their settlements.

    Should be ashamed of themselves.


  • Registered Users Posts: 98 ✭✭cfingers


    8-10 wrote: »
    Was the market next president or win the election?

    The title was next president but the rules stated it was who won the most projected electoral college votes.

    This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

    So, all going to plan, it should be settled tonight or first thing in the morning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,662 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    If projected electoral votes was the benchmark then it really could have been settled just two or three days after the election when all the main tv networks had their projected college votes finalised, Id presume thats what 'projected college votes' referred to and not the actual vote today. If not then it could have been settled when the Arizona and Georgia recounts were complete.

    Its Trumps messing around with the courts though that has caused them to be cautious in case something went his way and they had already paid out, there would be chaos then. Im sure they're also enjoying a nice couple of quid in interest having hundreds of millions on deposit too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,983 ✭✭✭Augme


    The market is suspended so hopefully should be all settled very soon. €1.8bn in traded in it, a stsggering figure really.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,113 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Betfair have paid out thank ****.

    If Trump wasn't so repugnant, I would be hoping he could find a way to somehow to find a loophole to be sworn in January just to teach Betfair a lesson.:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 98 ✭✭cfingers


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Im sure they're also enjoying a nice couple of quid in interest having hundreds of millions on deposit too.

    They are probably paying a bank to hold the money due to negative interest rates.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,113 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Amazingly Biden never touched 1.01 despite the last few weeks been a clown show and nothing more than a Trump fundraising campaign.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,622 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    Paid out just in time for Christmas :D.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,273 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    finally!


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,662 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Paddy Power paid out my final bet too, about time but at least its there.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭dwayneshintzy




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,311 ✭✭✭✭weldoninhio


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Paddy Power have now priced up 2024 and its utterly horrific.

    https://www.paddypower.com/politics

    Paddy Power are con artists. I backed Kamala Harris as next US President at 175/1. It’s up as a losing settled bet now. When I queried, they claimed that their Market rules meant it was for whoever won the most electoral colleges. The electoral colleges can only vote for the main contenders, it would have been impossible for Harris or Trumps running mate to win.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,113 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    So final piece of action regarding 2020 election Tuesday. 2 Senate races in Georgia. Republicans only need to win one to hold the senate while the Dems need both for a 50/50 split.

    Initially Republicans were 1/3 or maybe shorter to retain control but its very close now. Republicans are 1.71 to hold control while 2.28 for a tie.

    I have small plays at 11/4 -9/4 but in truth looking at my book it should be sexier , I'l win a few quid if Dems take both on Tuesday but as someone who recognised that would be much closer than initially thought should have a better book.

    Race A Perdue (r) v Ossoff (d),,,opened up as Perdue about 2/5 or so ,,,now close to pick.

    Race B...Loeffer (r) v Warnock (d).....Loeffer opened around 2/5 or so, but is now slightly odds against .

    I'm not sure if I'l play anymore on this market, the 2.28 for the Dems double seems tight now as while Loeffer is awful, their may be enough "moderate" Republicans who get Perdue over the line.

    Anyone else play on this market?


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,662 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Rjd2 wrote: »

    Anyone else play on this market?

    Ive had Osoff backed at 11/10 since October. I wasnt that hopeful of him winning it but he might just do it. Just like Trump before him his opponent Perdue is now self isolating during an election campaign since last Monday after being a close contact of someone positive for Covid. Trump himself is due in Georgia for a rally today, its not yet known if Perdue will come out of isolation to attend it.

    Its been a disaster of a campaign for the Republicans beset by infighting. Trump has been claiming that Georgia was rigged for the Presidental election but a consequence of that is that he is suppressing the Republican vote whose supporters are actually believing it and thinking why should we bother to vote if the whole thing is a fix, etc. Reports coming in that postal and early voting has been done in record numbers which tends to favour the Democrats.

    Apart from that Democrat Stacey Abrams has managed to register another 100,000 new voters in Georgia. This is on top of the 800,000 new voters she is credited with for the Presidential election which tipped the state to the Democracts for the first time since 1992.

    Whatever happens its going to be close and unlikely the result will be confirmed on Wednesday, its essentially a replay of the Presidental election so Id expect recounts and court cases to be flying around all over again. If the Democrats were to take both Senate seats it would be seismic for Bidens presidency as it would hand him control of both houses. But two Democrats winning simultaneously in Republican Georgia is still a tall ask.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,113 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Winner winner etc.

    Slightly annoyed I did not oppose Loeffer harder as she was an awful candidate but to be fair who could have predicted last few weeks from Trump.

    Just hope her and Perdue concede before Xmas.:P


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,662 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Trump acquitted at his Senate trial so he's now free to run in 2024 (provided he doesnt end up in prison). PP dropped their odds from 10/1 to 9/1 this evening. I wouldnt tie up money on it now but 9/1 is a great price for something that could genuinely happen, Americans love a comeback story and he fits the mould perfectly now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,983 ✭✭✭Augme


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Trump acquitted at his Senate trial so he's now free to run in 2024 (provided he doesnt end up in prison). PP dropped their odds from 10/1 to 9/1 this evening. I wouldnt tie up money on it now but 9/1 is a great price for something that could genuinely happen, Americans love a comeback story and he fits the mould perfectly now.


    What makes you could say it could genuinely happen? If he couldn't do it on the back of 4 years in the job, why do you think he will do it now?


  • Registered Users Posts: 45,520 ✭✭✭✭Bobeagleburger


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Trump acquitted at his Senate trial so he's now free to run in 2024 (provided he doesnt end up in prison). PP dropped their odds from 10/1 to 9/1 this evening. I wouldnt tie up money on it now but 9/1 is a great price for something that could genuinely happen, Americans love a comeback story and he fits the mould perfectly now.

    He's obese and will be 78 years old in 2024. From a health point of view I'd be surprised if he's a runner tbh.

    He's made a fortune from a large amount of easily manipulated people. His job is done.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,113 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    I've taken some 100/1 Ron De Santis for 2024, not going to suggest I have fortunes on it , but that price was to tempting.

    The Trumpers love him and more importantly the donors who finance the party like him as he governs like a standard Republican.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,662 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Augme wrote: »
    What makes you could say it could genuinely happen? If he couldn't do it on the back of 4 years in the job, why do you think he will do it now?

    Because it will be a completely different race in 2024, there will be no coronavirus, no BLM protests like there was during the campaign just gone. Biden isnt going to heal anything and the divide and anger thats in the US now will still be there in 2024. A lot of it is racial and the presumptive Dem nominee Kamala Harris is not going to have an easy time of it as a lot of people will come out to specifically vote against her, just like they did for Hillary. To be clear though Im not saying Trump is going to run but if he does he is still in with a shout. The conditions for him to win are still present, sure huge amounts of the Republican voters genuinely believe the election was stolen,thats a huge motivator for them to get out and right 'the wrong'. It will only take the flipping of Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan to hand the White House back to the Reps, it was such a close election that this is not an impossible task.

    In any case I put a few quid on Pompeo last week. Found him too hard to resist at 40/1 as it is known he would like a crack at it and he could be the Trump nominee. He has a lot of the credentials needed to run and Id see him as a better pick than Pence or Haley, neither of which will appeal to the Trump wing of the party whereas Pompeo does.

    @Rjd2 where did you get 100/1 on de Santis, PP are only offering 25/1


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