Thursday/Friday: Lightning Storms, Flash Flooding Event Thread

Donegal Storm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Night is still young but Christ, how hard can it be just to get a half decent storm triggered off in this country, even when all the ingredients are there waiting to be chopped up and put into a plate for us to partake?

If there is one lesson I have personally learned these last couple of days is that hi-res models are, by and large, basically ****e. There is just as much info in the global lower res output.. better in fact.

Think I read before that the Arome model was specifically developed for forecasting short term convective weather, I've been keeping an eye on it for the past 36 hours and overall its been fairly bang on the money, compared to the rest at least.

Forecasting plume's is never easy (though forecasting a non-event you'd be right ~100% of the time), we have one of these threads at least once every summer and in nearly 15 years on this forum I've never seen one deliver much more than some Irish Sea storms or a few that clip the south east coast.

Have to laugh at this thread as well, in almost every other country on earth a forecast of 'a few scattered thunderstorms' and people wouldn't even bat an eyelid, here we have 35 pages of hype for whats so far amounted to a few sporadic flashes of lightning :pac:

Sums up how soul destroying it is having an interest in extreme weather in Ireland

Kermit.de.frog

What did I miss? :pac:

Looks disappointing so far but things can flare quickly so don't be too down hearted in the east.As MT was saying our timeline here has been pushed back a few hours.

Our best chance in the east for lightning is from activity making it's way up through Wexford and Wicklow in the next 90 minutes.

If we are to get a storm I'd much prefer something between now and 3 am.

Will be keeping an eye out, hopeful as ever.

Davaeo09

There's a few more hours of hopecasting

squarecircles

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Think I read before that the Arome model was specifically developed for forecasting short term convective weather, I've been keeping an eye on it for the past 36 hours and overall its been fairly bang on the money, compared to the rest at least.

Forecasting plume's is never easy (though forecasting a non-event you'd be right ~100% of the time), we have one of these threads at least once every summer and in nearly 15 years on this forum I've never seen one deliver much more than some Irish Sea storms or a few that clip the south east coast.

Have to laugh at this thread as well, in almost every other country on earth a forecast of 'a few scattered thunderstorms' and people wouldn't even bat an eyelid, here we have 35 pages of hype for whats so far amounted to a few sporadic flashes of lightning :pac:

Sums up how soul destroying it is having an interest in extreme weather in Ireland

Not to mention the country is a kip and the narrative of the weather Forum is controlled and influenced by a few inside the pale, thank christ we can all fly away in July and escape this dump.

q85dw7osi4lebg

KingdomRushed wrote: »

It's all over for now anyway. The couple of radar returns producing sparks have dissipated. Unless you knew the context that storms were expected and you saw the weak sauce light to moderate rain in the east thats on the radar currently, would u expect anything to happen? Nah. met eireann correct to downgrade this mornin in the text even though they had already run with the national warnings. Very remote chance of anything now in my opinion.

Off to bed with you so

greenfield21

Calling it a damp squib is one hell of understatement, this thread will be talked about for years to come as the biggest flop ever. So it's actually quite a memorable day.

Monkeynut

squarecircles wrote: »

Not to mention the country is a kip and the narrative of the weather Forum is controlled and influenced by a few inside the pale, thank christ we can all fly away in July and escape this dump.

I'm sure in paradise they'll have WiFi or roaming. So people can moan there too.

I was excited, but not really disappointed to an extent.

jamo2oo9

Heavy rain in NE Louth about 5-10mins ago. A rumble was heard as well but didn't see any flashes.

Thunderlover

Hana Famous Sprocket wrote: »

I recall a period of significant lightning activity in Dublin over a few days in I think mid-late October 2003. It sticks out to me because of something tragic that was happening in my life at that time, but maybe the circumstances have amplified my memories of the weather conditions. Is there any record of thunderstorm activity around that time, or where could I look?

Nothing but a bit of drizzle to report here in Clondalkin so far anyway. Disappointing!

Yes, October 2003 saw one of the most prolonged periods of thundery weather in Ireland. I was living in Dublin at the time and it started about 4pm one afternoon and kept going through the next day and into the following morning. I remember sitting on the number 10 bus on the first morning of it and it was a bright flash after flash. Continuous. Some epic thunder also.

spookwoman

Ireland has always been hard to predict the weather, think people still expect a little to much when it comes to thunder and lightning forecasts. It just a case of wait and see what happens and if it doesn't work out then it doesn't.

Oneiric 3

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Except Met Eireann will get the blame because of his stupidity

No idea who this guy is. Call me a snob but as much as I have followed the weather all my life, I am very fussy about who I will listen too on the topic. You can tell pretty much instantly who is real and authentic and who isn't.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Flashes in sky out off Laytown just now too, not on radar.

Oneiric 3

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Think I read before that the Arome model was specifically developed for forecasting short term convective weather, I've been keeping an eye on it for the past 36 hours and overall its been fairly bang on the money, compared to the rest at least.

I rarely look at that model but I did last night and it showed showers breaking out over the midlands and reaching as far as here(by this stage of tonight) Same with the Harmonie as well, which was never going to happen given the actual set up, so I not sure I could agree. GFS, for all of its faults, has actually been far more accurate so far.

r93kaey5p2izun

Thunderlover wrote: »

Yes, October 2003 saw one of the most prolonged periods of thundery weather in Ireland. I was living in Dublin at the time and it started about 4pm one afternoon and kept going through the next day and into the following morning. I remember sitting on the number 10 bus on the first morning of it and it was a bright flash after flash. Continuous. Some epic thunder also.

Yes I remember sitting on the bus on my daily 2.5 hour commute (yes the traffic was that bad and it was pre bus lanes on a lot of the route!) to UCD and it being unbelievable. And it continued throughout the day in college too and the next day. It was very dramatic.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Fork lightening off coast of Mornington right now, again not on radar

Musefan

3 flashes of lightning in Cavan and a brief shower but no sound of thunder. Nothing coming up on the radar.

Class MayDresser

greenfield21 wrote: »

Calling it a damp squib is one hell of understatement, this thread will be talked about for years to come as the biggest flop ever. So it's actually quite a memorable day.

Youve never seen the flop of 03, unless your name is Shelly, or so she told me!

Kermit.de.frog

Maryam Teeny Vegetation wrote: »

Fork lightening off coast of Mornington right now, again not on radar

Where is Mornington Insta?

I'm keeping alert in north Dublin and nothing to report as of yet.

ninebeanrows

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Where is Mornington Insta?

I'm keeping alert in north Dublin and nothing to report as of yet.

Drogheda, some of Ireland's best live there

Paso Fino

Also keeping an eye in north Dublin, though I will admit to feeling a bit gloomy now! Clearly I still haven't lost all hope yet!

spookwoman

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Where is Mornington Insta?

I'm keeping alert in north Dublin and nothing to report as of yet.

Morninton is east of Drogheda at the south side of the mouth of the River Boyne

Gonzo

squarecircles wrote: »

A damp squid indeed, the lighting never materialised, back to brass tax from tomorrow.
Gonzo must be sticking pins in his head.

It pure bdsm weather porn.

not really after 35 years of no decent thunderstorms in my area I expect nothing and if something happens that's a huge bonus. Thankfully we got a nice warm and sunny day.

Bsal

Radar returns appear to be intensifying in the Navan area past 10min, also a cell just popped up out of nowhere NW of Drogheda

Kermit.de.frog

Remember...

Snooze you lose

pad199207

Keep an eye on the radar between Fishguard and Rosslare for perhaps some interest with developing new cells

Thunderlover

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Remember...

Snooze you lose

Are you flogging a dead horse at this stage?

q85dw7osi4lebg

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Drogheda, some of Ireland's best live there

Precisely.

Specifically looking north east towards the Cooley / Mourne mts

fleet_admiral

Not a sound in a very muggy Terenure. Bag peel is something awful

Muscles Schultz

squarecircles wrote: »

A damp squid indeed, the lighting never materialised, back to brass tax from tomorrow.
Gonzo must be sticking pins in his head.

It pure bdsm weather porn.

Wtf is ‘brass tax’ pray tell????

Kermit.de.frog

pad199207 wrote: »

Keep an eye on the radar between Fishguard and Rosslare for perhaps some interest with developing new cells

Things startng to develop a bit now between Wexford and Cardigan Bay. No sparks just yet.

Can see small potential cells emerging soon