Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

stephenjmcd

timmy_mallet wrote: »

We are a small island. It's achievable. Then what? Isolate for the next 10 years?

Thats the thing, you'd need NI to deviate from the UK and join up with our policies, that won't happen.

Even if it was possible like you say then what, shut ourselves off ? again not possible

is_that_so

caveat emptor wrote: »

That was an example where people might be able to understand. 4 nations wearing the same jersey that ordinarily 6 seven shades of ****e out of each other. If they can play together once every 4 years. We can align our policy once every 100 years. It's the symbolism man, come on. Feel the positivity.....

Oh and I was just calling bulls!t saying we can't close the border. We have, everyone else did. They will do it again and my hope is that we will do it to get back to normal.

I'm not doing this for me. I have asthma although not bad, rarely need an inhaler. I'm sure I'll be grand.

I want kids to be able to go back to school. That's my priority right now. Can't see that happening though while we prioritise short term dollars from tourists over long term well being of the country.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1283291803312160768?s=20

Opened. Too. Quickly!

Ae Fond Kiss

Jackman25 wrote: »

What in blazes are you on about? Figures are nothing to worry about, but people posting saying that are being silly?
The posters commenting on the figures have fully linked and been consistent with their commentary on the data and discrepancies between different sets of figures.
You aren't even getting the acronym for NPHET correct.

'What in blazes'?? Are you old JW the Sheriff in the Bond movies?

schmoo2k

Hector Savage wrote: »

Lleida for now, concern is growing for Barcelona too where cases are exploding again ...

Still not Spain - it was just a little fact check on the previous erroneous post...

Gruffalux

Renjit wrote: »

For first run, immunity is significant factor compared to seasons. Depletion of susceptible hosts may add more weight to seasonal factor.

In this first run scenario only about 3 or 4% of people caught the virus here. It is only about 5 to 7% in harder hit countries albeit with some exceptional hotspot outliers. So really we are wide open as hosts and almost as vulnerable as we were at the start. I view now as being similar to January, mooching along at the bottom of a graph, a virus looking again for a foothold among us, and that a couple of months from now, with life pretty much back to normal as it is, and especially with social gathering indoors, we will see a significant increase as we did back in March.
This may seem depressing to some but I think it is realistic and while sad there is no use in being down. It is better to prepare mentally for October or November to be a tricky enough time and then be relieved and pleased when or if it is not. That's just my unprofessional laywoman's opinion. I felt the same the day in January I first read about a strange virus in Wuhan.

Ae Fond Kiss

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I agree with you the figure was nothing terribly worrying but as we've seen its reported as being awful.

But on your earlier point sorry but thats BS your spouting about 'don't worry be happy'.

If as some of us do you track data, the total postive cases logged in the last 24hrs is 15, not 32 as was reported yesterday evening. Like was said yesterday the numbers reported as postive swabs v numbers reported daily has been fairly well off since the wekeend. So yes there are questions around the reporting of data and how it filters through from the HPSC so there's quite clearly a delay and that will be evident when the county data is released.

So throw around labels to groups all you want but the stats are there for you to see if you wish. The total postive will be updated later today to give the postive swabs in the last 24hrs, compare it then with the numbers announced and you'll see what people have been discussing surrounding a possible lag in reporting.

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

Maybe the full data isn't disclosed in daily swabs? It's more the attitude 'that's not right because we say so'. Very prevalent on here. Like you saying you're sick of experts but posting your take on things all day! At least they have the quals.

schmoo2k

Deleted User wrote: »

How come Florida does not have a summer Flu spike?

http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/influenza/index.html

Also Florida age profile in the Summer (off season) is very different to their winter age profile - Florida is weird in many ways.

stephenjmcd

Ae Fond Kiss wrote: »

Maybe the full data isn't disclosed in daily swabs? It's more the attitude 'that's not right because we say so'. Very prevalent on here. Like you saying you're sick of experts but posting your take on things all day! At least they have the quals.

And I've a qual as you say in Data Analytics so when it comes to data I've a fair idea what I'm on about.

The full data is there to see, there's multiple reports on it issued by HSE along with testing numbers, swabs taken etc.

So yes there are legitimate queries as to what way data is reported FROM HSE to HPSC and how that data is then reported in terms of daily cases annoucned as the 24hr totals and the numbers reported dont add up especially in the last few days theres been a wide margin which would suggest yesterday's cases included a large proportion from the weekend.

This will either be confirmed or cleared up slightly with the county data which is 48hrs behind.

Its not an attitude of thats not right because we say so, there's quite clear data which you've clearly not looked at which would when you look at it show that 32 for example was not yesterday's accurate 24hr cases.

I'll gladly have an open discussion regarding data if you know what your talking about.

Renjit

Gruffalox wrote: »

In this first run scenario only about 3 or 4% of people caught the virus here. It is only about 5 to 7% in harder hit countries albeit with some exceptional hotspot outliers. So really we are wide open as hosts and almost as vulnerable as we were at the start. I view now as being similar to January, mooching along at the bottom of a graph, a virus looking again for a foothold among us, and that a couple of months from now, with life pretty much back to normal as it is, and especially with social gathering indoors, we will see a significant increase as we did back in March.
This may seem depressing to some but I think it is realistic and while sad there is no use in being down. It is better to prepare mentally for October or November to be a tricky enough time and then be relieved and pleased when or if it is not. That's just my unprofessional laywoman's opinion. I felt the same the day in January I first read about a strange virus in Wuhan.

Take precautions, wear masks where social distancing is not possible. That's all we can do and more effective than someone dying or admitted to hospital.

NegativeCreep

cnocbui wrote: »

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html

That doesn’t confirm asymptomatic spread. It just confirms that people can be asymptomatic. It confirms that this is a mild to nothing disease for most.

tom1ie

Deleted User wrote: »

So in summary on the posts on this matter:

- Its like Flu so we will have a winter surge
- What about the summer surge in southern US states?
- Air conditioning
- Why no summer Flu spike?
- Its not like flu

Truth is we dont know yet.

Conclusion of the linked Harvard study:

I thought the reason we see winter spikes in the likes of the flu and colds, is because people are indoors and closer together therefore the flu and colds can transmit easier to people via droplets from sneezing, getting picked up off surfaces etc.
Conversely people are generally outdoors in summer so the spread is not as effective.
This is the case in Northern Europe but in places with moderate winters people can be outdoors a lot more so they don’t get as many or as bad a spike.

Just my two cents worth but I could be talking ****e. :pac:

Ae Fond Kiss

stephenjmcd wrote: »

And I've a qual as you say in Data Analytics so when it comes to data I've a fair idea what I'm on about.

The full data is there to see, there's multiple reports on it issued by HSE along with testing numbers, swabs taken etc.

So yes there are legitimate queries as to what way data is reported FROM HSE to HPSC and how that data is then reported in terms of daily cases annoucned as the 24hr totals and the numbers reported dont add up especially in the last few days theres been a wide margin which would suggest yesterday's cases included a large proportion from the weekend.

This will either be confirmed or cleared up slightly with the county data which is 48hrs behind.

Its not an attitude of thats not right because we say so, there's quite clear data which you've clearly not looked at which would when you look at it show that 32 for example was not yesterday's accurate 24hr cases.

I'll gladly have an open discussion regarding data if you know what your talking about.

But you may not have all the data to analyse. How else would there be discrepancies? They're not pulling the figures out of the air.

Renjit

South Africa seems to be taking the lead in Africa. Australia is in second peak.

Beasty

Threads merged

schmoo2k

Renjit wrote: »

South Africa seems to be taking the lead in Africa. Australia is in second peak.

In so far as their dally numbers are half of their previous peek - but I will give you the curve is not great, but not as bad as the first outbreak.

Non solum non ambulabit

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Thats the thing, you'd need NI to deviate from the UK and join up with our policies, that won't happen.

Even if it was possible like you say then what, shut ourselves off ? again not possible

I have to agree. The DUP are unlikely to isolate themselves from the UK. Politically they would have a huge problem with this. The DUP are known to put the union ahead of all else.

El Weirdo

ZX7R wrote: »

For the republic of Ireland to take a stance like new Zealand this is what the political parties would have to do.
First:
A referendum to change our constitution
To end our claim to the northern county's
So the border can be closed.
Then you would have to end the good Friday agreement.
Then you would have to end our common travel area with UK this will also require a referendum.
Then you would need to have a third referendum to leave the European Union as it would be the only way for us to fully close our borders to a free moment of EU citizens.
This group can call for a zero approach for Ireland but they are only looking at from a medical view.
There is no balance from there thinking and the way they are pushing there view is
A little bit dangerous.

I think you'll find we had a referendum to rescind our claim on the six counties in 1999. It passed, you might be interested to know.

Can you also tell me why we would need a referendum to end the CTA with the UK?

And the whole free movement of EU citizens bit is more to do with being able to work and live all across the EU, not really actual travel. We certainly wouldn't have to leave the EU if we wanted to close our borders for health reasons.

snotboogie

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Sorry but with the greatest respect I think it is you that does not understand.

How are you supposed to achieve a coivd free Ireland with an open border with the UK and a different jurisdiction of the island operating a different policy ??

Regardless of how long the lockdown would be we still come back to open border and 2 different policies on the island so how exactly do you achieve a covid free island with NI not implementing quarantine for a large number of countries and people free to drive into the Republic with no measures in place as its not feasible to shut down the NI border.

Would love to hear how its possible.

Obviously it would require a unified policy with Northern Ireland.

You haven't addressed the point though, you have totally misunderstood the focus of Covid Free Island, which is to eliminate lockdowns and go back to normal. Yet you are positing the position as indefinite lockdowns, the exact opposite of what they are calling for.

snotboogie

El Weirdo wrote: »

I think you'll find we had a referendum to rescind our claim on the six counties in 1999. It passed, you might be interested to know.

Can you also tell me why we would need a referendum to end the CTA with the UK?

And the whole free movement of EU citizens bit is more to do with being able to work and live all across the EU, not really actual travel. We certainly wouldn't have to leave the EU if we wanted to close our borders for health reasons.

None of his points make sense, the state is free to instate emergency measures to close borders due to the pandemic as many EU countries have already done in the last few months.

ACitizenErased

Ae Fond Kiss wrote: »

But you may not have all the data to analyse. How else would there be discrepancies? They're not pulling the figures out of the air.

We receive all test data daily. Hospital tests, community tests and combined total, then a number of positive tests. The positive tests number should always be bigger than confirmed cases as some people are tested twice.

In the 72hrs before yesterday, there was 60 confirmed cases reported yet only 48 positive tests. That’s the point. Makes no sense why they’re backlogging and reporting cases late. Why report 10 one day and 32 the next day when you could report 21 each day?

ZX7R

El Weirdo wrote: »

I think you'll find we had a referendum to rescind our claim on the six counties in 1999. It passed, you might be interested to know.

Can you also tell me why we would need a referendum to end the CTA with the UK?

And the whole free movement of EU citizens bit is more to do with being able to work and live all across the EU, not really actual travel. We certainly wouldn't have to leave the EU if we wanted to close our borders for health reasons.

Ok fair point on the six county's
A referendum would be needed for the common travel area because since the agreement in 1922 it was confirmed by legislation under the good Friday agreement also under other legislation.
These legislations can not be over ruled by the government it would have to go to the people to decided.
The freedom of movement for EU members covers all aspects including personal travel.

For Ireland to close our borders under the emergency health reasons we have to declare an emergency .
For us to do this now we would have to have lost complete control of the virus.
The European Union is not at the highest level of severity in regards to the pandemic.
So even if we wanted to we can not close our external borders ,we can close internal borders for the reason of containment of an outbreak of the virus local lockdowns.
So as it stands at the moment we would have to leave the EU to close our borders

plodder

https://news.yahoo.com/second-wave-covid-hits-israel-162129002.html



That is concerning about Israel. Last time I looked at their graph was early June I think. So, any idea that this might "fizzle out" naturally in warm weather is well dead.

I think we are on the correct course. Suppressing to zero is simply impossible but we are absolutely right to be very cautious about re-opening.

ACitizenErased

plodder wrote: »

https://news.yahoo.com/second-wave-covid-hits-israel-162129002.html




That is concerning about Israel. Last time I looked at their graph was early June I think. So, any idea that this might "fizzle out" naturally in warm weather is well dead.

I think we are on the correct course. Suppressing to zero is simply impossible but we are absolutely right to be very cautious about re-opening.

Anyone know what their testing system is like?

That graph looks very very similar to the US graph, suggesting that their first wave never actually ended

cnocbui

NegativeCreep wrote: »

That doesn’t confirm asymptomatic spread. It just confirms that people can be asymptomatic. It confirms that this is a mild to nothing disease for most.

I know it's a mild disease for most. The fearmongering itself is frightening. The Italians reported that 99% of those who die have another serious illness.

This pushback against the notion of asymptomatic contagiousness is quite incredible. Ok, here's the CDC take on the topic: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-1595_article

Reported cases of infected persons who transmitted the virus to others while presymptomatic or asymptomatic have occurred within families or households (9–11,13–17), during shared meals (10,12), or during visits with hospitalized family members (9,13). An inherent confounder to these reports from China is the inability to entirely rule out alternative SARS-CoV-2 exposure in the community early in the outbreak, when transmission in the community may have been undetected.

However, cases of presymptomatic transmission have been reported from other countries before widespread community transmission occurred. A report from Germany documented infection of a German businessman after exposure to a mildly symptomatic colleague visiting from China (18). Before becoming symptomatic, this businessman exposed 2 other colleagues who subsequently received a COVID-19 diagnosis but did not have contact with the primary patient from China or any other known source. A report from Singapore described 7 COVID-19 clusters resulting from presymptomatic transmission; presymptomatic primary patients varied from persons with travel from high-incidence countries to persons exposed in the local community (19). All primary patients experienced distinct periods of initial exposure and presymptomatic close contact with secondary patients who had no other known exposure risks.

There is sufficient proof of asymptomatic contagion for the CDC and WHO. Anyone who disagrees with the quality of the evidence they have based their opinion on should take it up with them.

El Weirdo

ZX7R wrote: »

Ok fair point on the six county's
A referendum would be needed for the common travel area because

Well, that's me convinced.

Boggles

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Anyone know what their testing system is like?

That graph looks very very similar to the US graph, suggesting that their first wave never actually ended

It looks nothing like the US graph.

Arytonblue

snotboogie wrote: »

Obviously it would require a unified policy with Northern Ireland.

You haven't addressed the point though, you have totally misunderstood the focus of Covid Free Island, which is to eliminate lockdowns and go back to normal. Yet you are positing the position as indefinite lockdowns, the exact opposite of what they are calling for.

A unified policy with Northern Ireland is pretty much a complete non starter, making the whole concept effectively useless. This is the same NI govt that willingly goose-stepped its way into Brexit in spite of the huge damage it would cause, just ain't happening.

The other massive flaw in this idea is that it would institute another Stage 2 lockdown after we had already gone through one for several months. People are only just getting back some sense of normalcy, with new conditions and cautions still in place. Shops and businesses are only just reopening and you are basically expecting everybody to just disregard all that, go back into lockdown (for a few months supposedly, again no real certainty timewise) and then what? Emerge by year's end into a new utopia free of Covid? I'm sorry like, but it just sounds ludicrous and impractical to me.

Huge part of the effectiveness of the lockdown was mass compliance from the public, as in you can't force an entire population to suspend their lives, you have to hope they willingly abide within reason, which we did. I seriously doubt you'll get that same level of compliance from a good section of the population now, simply because they already did what they were asked to do, we flattened the curve and have incredibly manageable numbers now. What exact reasoning will be given for this? Beyond a seriously naive hope to 'eradicate' the virus.

Where this sudden drive for 'Covid free Ireland' is coming from is beyond me, if it's simply just 'guarenteed second wave about two months ago' Killeen and McConkey then I would suggest ignoring them, they've been banging that drum ad nauseum since the beginning, and have rightly been ignored by the people in power who actually matter.

snotboogie

cnocbui wrote: »

I know it's a mild disease for most. The fearmongering itself is frightening. The Italians reported that 99% of those who die have another serious illness.

This pushback against the notion of asymptomatic contagiousness is quite incredible. Ok, here's the CDC take on the topic: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-1595_article



There is sufficient proof of asymptomatic contagion for the CDC and WHO. Anyone who disagrees with the quality of the evidence they have based their opinion on should take it up with them.

People are confusing asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic. There is still confusion over asymptomatic spread but as you posted, pre-symptomatic spread is well documented and accepted. The issue is that people hear that there is no evidence of asymptomatic spread and think that people cannot spread the disease without symptoms, which ignores pre-symptomatic contagion.

Ae Fond Kiss

ACitizenErased wrote: »

We receive all test data daily. Hospital tests, community tests and combined total, then a number of positive tests. The positive tests number should always be bigger than confirmed cases as some people are tested twice.

In the 72hrs before yesterday, there was 60 confirmed cases reported yet only 48 positive tests. That’s the point. Makes no sense why they’re backlogging and reporting cases late. Why report 10 one day and 32 the next day when you could report 21 each day?

There must be a timing issue in how both positive tests and cases are released. However at the end of a week I'm sure one equates to the other.

cnocbui

Being pre-symptomatic also falls within the set asymptomatic.

ACitizenErased

Ae Fond Kiss wrote: »

There must be a timing issue in how both positive tests and cases are released. However at the end of a week I'm sure one equates to the other.

The positive tests figure is always bigger than the confirmed cases figure as I stated but the last 3 days for whatever reason this wasn’t the case.

snotboogie

snotboogie wrote: »

Obviously it would require a unified policy with Northern Ireland.

You haven't addressed the point though, you have totally misunderstood the focus of Covid Free Island, which is to eliminate lockdowns and go back to normal. Yet you are positing the position as indefinite lockdowns, the exact opposite of what they are calling for.

Normal is free movement of people. New Zealand is far from normal

caveat emptor

ZX7R wrote: »

Ok fair point on the six county's
A referendum would be needed for the common travel area because since the agreement in 1922 it was confirmed by legislation under the good Friday agreement also under other legislation.
These legislations can not be over ruled by the government it would have to go to the people to decided.
The freedom of movement for EU members covers all aspects including personal travel.

For Ireland to close our borders under the emergency health reasons we have to declare an emergency .
For us to do this now we would have to have lost complete control of the virus.
The European Union is not at the highest level of severity in regards to the pandemic.
So even if we wanted to we can not close our external borders ,we can close internal borders for the reason of containment of an outbreak of the virus local lockdowns.
So as it stands at the moment we would have to leave the EU to close our borders

I'm afraid I have to call bull-sh!t again. Did every country on the list I posted earlier "lose complete control of the virus"?

SeaBreezes

NegativeCreep wrote: »

That doesn’t confirm asymptomatic spread. It just confirms that people can be asymptomatic. It confirms that this is a mild to nothing disease for most.

Italians disagree:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-warning-from-italy-effects-of-covid-19-could-be-worse-than-first-thought-12027348

The long-term effects of COVID-19, even on people who suffered a mild infection, could be far worse than was originally anticipated, according to researchers and doctors in northern Italy.

Psychosis, insomnia, kidney disease, spinal infections, strokes, chronic tiredness and mobility issues are being identified in former coronavirus patients in Lombardy, the worst-affected region in the country.

So little is known of the virus that any long-term planning is guess work.

Doctors believe that even the youngest and mildest infected are at risk of their lives being changed forever, and it could take years to become apparent. Whole workforces could become less productive as a consequence.

The advice from Italy is simple: Don't get infected.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/

timsey tiger

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Anyone know what their testing system is like?

That graph looks very very similar to the US graph, suggesting that their first wave never actually ended

With respect that graph, is not at all similar to the US graph. They had gotten the new case level down to close to zero, the US never got it's new incidence cases below 3/4 of the peak.

Unfortunately they took their eye off the ball and completely relaxed everything hence the rebound. They have resignations from the health area in disgust of the top leadership over the recent handling.

We are in immenent danger of following them back up the curve, I'm glad I'm only responsible for my immediate family and can work from home.

wadacrack

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Italians disagree:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-warning-from-italy-effects-of-covid-19-could-be-worse-than-first-thought-12027348

The long-term effects of COVID-19, even on people who suffered a mild infection, could be far worse than was originally anticipated, according to researchers and doctors in northern Italy.

Psychosis, insomnia, kidney disease, spinal infections, strokes, chronic tiredness and mobility issues are being identified in former coronavirus patients in Lombardy, the worst-affected region in the country.

So little is known of the virus that any long-term planning is guess work.

Doctors believe that even the youngest and mildest infected are at risk of their lives being changed forever, and it could take years to become apparent. Whole workforces could become less productive as a consequence.

The advice from Italy is simple: Don't get infected.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/

People need to be educated on this. This isn't fear mongering. The studies clearly show that this virus is doing strange things to the body and recovery is pretty complex. Looking simply at the death rate does not tell the full picture. Zero Covid approach is the one I favor and alot of scientists believe it can be done

El Weirdo

ZX7R wrote: »

Ok fair point on the six county's
A referendum would be needed for the common travel area because since the agreement in 1922 it was confirmed by legislation under the good Friday agreement also under other legislation.
These legislations can not be over ruled by the government it would have to go to the people to decided.
The freedom of movement for EU members covers all aspects including personal travel.

The Good Friday Agreement doesn't even mention the CTA.

And what pieces of legislation say that we would need to have a referendum to change or get rid of it?

timsey tiger

stephenjmcd wrote: »

And I've a qual as you say in Data Analytics so when it comes to data I've a fair idea what I'm on about.

The full data is there to see, there's multiple reports on it issued by HSE along with testing numbers, swabs taken etc.

So yes there are legitimate queries as to what way data is reported FROM HSE to HPSC and how that data is then reported in terms of daily cases annoucned as the 24hr totals and the numbers reported dont add up especially in the last few days theres been a wide margin which would suggest yesterday's cases included a large proportion from the weekend.

This will either be confirmed or cleared up slightly with the county data which is 48hrs behind.

Its not an attitude of thats not right because we say so, there's quite clear data which you've clearly not looked at which would when you look at it show that 32 for example was not yesterday's accurate 24hr cases.

I'll gladly have an open discussion regarding data if you know what your talking about.

If you had any experience in data analytics and working with data coming from a large organisation you would be highly suspicious of perfect data.

If you used your data analytics...

I can't be bothered with this. Apply what you have learned in your data analytics course to answer yourself why your points are rubbish.

JP Liz V1

RandomName2 wrote: »

Heard a report today that said that GPs are seeing (predominantly young) people who are exhibiting COVID-19 like symptoms but are refusing to be tested, looking only for medication to treat respiratory conditions.

I find this strange since COVID is a notifiable disease
https://www.hpsc.ie/notifiablediseases/listofnotifiablediseases/Immediate%20preliminary%20notification%20to%20a%20MOH%2004032020.pdf

I would have thought that testing in such circumstance would virtually be mandatory? :eek:

Why refuse a free potentially life saving test, are they even self isolating

Deeper Blue

Ireland have done brilliantly since we started to reopen the country and we need to be vigilant but extinguishing the virus completely just isn't an option.

What Tomas Ryan and his ilk are proposing can't and won't happen and they're well aware of this.

However I believe they see this as a good opportunity to get their name out there and since they're researchers I can understand that completely.

I just don't think their opinions should be glorified to the extent that we're currently seeing.

tom1ie

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Why refuse a free potentially life saving test, are they even self isolating

Sure it’s a hoax!
It’s the 5g!
It only affects old people!
It’s just a slightly worse flu!

These are some of the reasons.

El Weirdo

El Weirdo wrote: »

I think you'll find we had a referendum to rescind our claim on the six counties in 1999. It passed, you might be interested to know.

Can you also tell me why we would need a referendum to end the CTA with the UK?

And the whole free movement of EU citizens bit is more to do with being able to work and live all across the EU, not really actual travel. We certainly wouldn't have to leave the EU if we wanted to close our borders for health reasons.

Borders can be closed to the EU. They can’t be closed to the UK (and I don’t just mean the NI land border).

We are unique in that, as part of the CTA, a British passport automatically gives full residency rights in Ireland, with no other documentation or permission needed. There is nothing that says they have to be working. This is not the case even in schengen, where a french person, for example, would still have to register and get a residency card if he/she wanted to settle in Spain, and therefore border could be closed to someone not in possession of such a card

So it is impossible to know whether a British person trying to cross the border is resident in Ireland and whether should be allowed to enter, without sight of bank statements or utility bills that might infer residency (and even then they might be in a partners name and not the specific individual)

Basically we are tied to the UK, and inability to restrict movement of British people, come hell or high water unless the CTA is ripped up, and there are many many Irish people and families in the UK who would have a problem with this

schmoo2k

timsey tiger wrote: »

With respect that graph, is not at all similar to the US graph. They had gotten the new case level down to close to zero, the US never got it's new incidence cases below 3/4 of the peak.

Unfortunately they took their eye off the ball and completely relaxed everything hence the rebound. They have resignations from the health area in disgust of the top leadership over the recent handling.

We are in immenent danger of following them back up the curve, I'm glad I'm only responsible for my immediate family and can work from home.

Since we are handling the relaxation of lockdown restrictions in a completely different way and our population density and demographics are completely different, I fail to see how we will follow them in any way?

We should however take note of what they have learned about schools reopening.

stephenjmcd

timsey tiger wrote: »

If you had any experience in data analytics and working with data coming from a large organisation you would be highly suspicious of perfect data.

If you used your data analytics...

I can't be bothered with this. Apply what you have learned in your data analytics course to answer yourself why your points are rubbish.

yes there is rarely perfect data. No need for the smug condescending post, but thanks I will apply my degree here.

The positive tests figure have always been bigger than the confirmed cases since the start but for the last 3 days this has been reversed so yes there is something up with the data being reported. If something reverses trend then there's an underlying issue with the data set or a change in reporting mechanism which seems to stem from the weekend in this case, it may even itself back out today, we'll soon find out.

Thanks for your concern though, we'll soon see in the county data on what day the cases arose and what the true confirmed cases number was because it sure as hell wasn't 32 yesterday in the 24hr period and of course nobody in the media bothers looking at the data in the 24hr period so it was plastered around 32 cases with no explanation as to when they actually occurred which is an issue with HPSC reporting in itself.

ZX7R

El Weirdo wrote: »

The Good Friday Agreement doesn't even mention the CTA.

And what pieces of legislation say that we would need to have a referendum to change or get rid of it?

Most recent in 2019 the sining of the memorandum of understanding linked both the good Friday agreement and TCA under legislation.

stephenjmcd

Seeing as we've seen a few GAA clubs stood down recently with regards to postive tests and contacts, GAA have changed stance today

Players who have been in "casual contact" with a Covid-19 case can continue to play unless symptoms develop, while those who have been in "close contact" with a suspected case are instructed to have no involvement until being cleared to return.

https://m.independent.ie/sport/gaelic-games/gaa-rule-that-casual-contacts-with-covid-cases-can-keep-playing-39369170.html

Boggles

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Thanks for your concern though, we'll soon see in the county data on what day the cases arose and what the true confirmed cases number was because it sure as hell wasn't 32 yesterday in the 24hr period and of course nobody in the media bothers looking at the data in the 24hr period so it was plastered around 32 cases with no explanation as to when they actually occurred which is an issue with HPSC reporting in itself.

But sure if they don't know, much like yourself. How can they report on it?

The media from the start report on the figures they have been given at 5.30ish every evening, nothing has changed.

Also single daily figures are pretty much moot when it comes to assessing the trend of the virus.

The problem is certain people on the thread are trying to guess the figures before they come out and when they are wrong they lose their shít.

It's the 5/7/14 day trends that are important.

caveat emptor

I know we've got some very qualified people on here but Bill Gates knows something about this. No whether you believe him to be a philanthropist who has the best interests in the world at heart or he is a lizard and part of some 5g conspiracy and planned it you should probably listen to him.

Spoiler alert:it's gonna get worse....His face says it all really.

JP Liz V1

tom1ie wrote: »

Sure it’s a hoax!
It’s the 5g!
It only affects old people!
It’s just a slightly worse flu!

These are some of the reasons.

Covididiots

El Weirdo

ZX7R wrote: »

Most recent in 2019 the sining of the memorandum of understanding linked both the good Friday agreement and TCA under legislation.

Fair enough. I still don't see how it would require a referendum to change it though.