Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

is_that_so

ZX7R wrote: »

Young people of Ireland you have been very bold and had house parties so now MM we ground us all
That sounds like a good as an excuse as any ffs

There is a different feel to how the new government is delivering "health messages" now. Do it or we'll apply that threat of a €2500 fine to more parts of your life!

The chances of people having a summer staycation look less likely.

More and more will book their flight tickets now. And sure why not?

Why stay here with the bad weather while we try to decide when its safe to have a pint without food.

AdamD

Good to see that the €9 substantial meal will continue to keep us safe throughout July.


Very unfair on pubs that can't serve food can't open, nobody's going for the bloody food. Just enforce all of the other rules and let the others open without food, its completely bizarre.

fritzelly

Eod100 wrote: »

Looks like phase 4 may be delayed. https://twitter.com/jackpowerIT/status/1283425620630921216?s=19

Screw this government

ACitizenErased

You can send your thank yous to your local FF voters!

polesheep

fritzelly wrote: »

Screw this government

I think there will be plenty of people up and down the country echoing that sentiment. A mask to go into a supermarket for a few minutes but you can sit in a restaurant for 90 minutes without one. A sandwich is the difference between a pub being open or not. The government is going to very quickly lose the people. We didn't know how lucky we were with Leo in charge:(

Drumpot

is_that_so wrote: »

It is supposed to be a temporary measure and months is not temporary. It also shows that is not over nor looking like it's over.

It’s not over by a long shot. It’s really very simple, right now is just the start, our numbers going down is great but was Mostly a result of a savage lockdown. We don’t want to have to do that again.

There is no logical reason to assume our numbers won’t go up over the coming months if we don’t take precautions. Prevention is better then cure. If wearing masks reduces infection rates why wait until things get bad to make them mandatory?

It is completely irresponsible to work off the presumption that “we know more now so it won’t be so bad”. Doesn’t matter if you know more but do nothing to use that knowledge. We also know right now that there is a lot we don’t know about the virus.

I can’t get over how bad some people are at discussing this. They can only digest positive or negative news and see anybody with a contradicting view as some sort of tin foil hat person. There is no logic to some people’s interpretations of what’s going on and to be honest they are just latching onto whatever narrative they want to believe.

I don’t know how things are going to play out. We could be lucky and get a quick vaccine. We could learn a lot of things that show we can do a lot of the things we want to do with little risk. Maybe schools and shops and sports events will be shown to be not so bad... or maybe there will be a massive surge in winter with COVID piggybacking on other seasonal virus to spread.

I don’t know what’s going to happen but the blasé attitude some people have to only seeing things going one way is infuriating. It’s impossible to discuss this objectively with people who will only accept the narrative they want to believe. I believe there is a lot we still don’t know and in the absence of knowledge a prudent approach is caution. If wearing masks is one of those approaches , then it makes sense if it facilities us not requiring a full lockdown.

Where we are in numbers right now is relevant just today. I want us to stay that way, but accept we need to make compromises.

Boggles

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Unbelievable, there's not going to be much difference between phase 4 on Monday or phase 4 in 2 weeks time with the case numbers.

How do you know?

stephenjmcd

Eod100 wrote: »

That could be a fairly big unintended consequence. You'd wonder how many cases are from that idiot who went to that party with covid?

Yeah its going to be a consequence. Like we're all mid to late 20s and these lads wouldn't usually be bothered with house parties

Arghus

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The chances of people having a summer staycation look less likely.

More and more will book their flight tickets now. And sure why not?

Why stay here with the bad weather while we try to decide when its safe to have a pint without food.

I think the 1000 cancelled flights yesterday tells a different story.

is_that_so

Drumpot wrote: »

It’s not over by a long shot. It’s really very simple, right now is just the start, our numbers going down is great but was Mostly a result of a savage lockdown. We don’t want to have to do that again.

There is no logical reason to assume our numbers won’t go up over the coming months if we don’t take precautions. Prevention is better then cure. If wearing masks reduces infection rates why wait until things get bad to make them mandatory?

It is completely irresponsible to presume that “we know more now so it won’t be so bad”. Doesn’t matter if you know more but do nothing to use that knowledge. We also know right now that there is a lot we don’t know about the virus.

I can’t get over how bad some people are at discussing this. They can only digest positive or negative news and see anybody with a contradicting view as some sort of tin foil hat person. There is no logic to some people’s interpretations of what’s going on and to be honest they are just latching onto whatever narrative they want to believe.

I don’t know how things are going to play out. We could be lucky and get a quick vaccine. We could learn a lot of things that show we can do a lot of the things we want to do with little risk. Maybe schools and shops and sports events will be shown to be not so bad... or maybe there will be a massive surge in winter with COVID piggybacking on other seasonal virus to spread.

I don’t know what’s going to happen but the blasé attitude some people have to only seeing things going one way is infuriating. It’s impossible to discuss this objectively with people who will only accept the narrative they want to believe. I believe there is a lot we still don’t know and in the absence of knowledge a prudent approach is caution. If wearing masks is one of those approaches , then it makes sense if it facilities us not requiring a full lockdown.

Where we are in numbers right now is relevant just today. I want us to stay that way, but accept we need to make compromises.

There needs to be some conversation about masks and for how long. Putting them on and hoping numbers won't rise is really not a very good health policy. In that scenario it should be a return to what is known to work - shutting things down and we need to hear that too.

marno21

That was a threat (so far).

Kerry was one of the airports mentioned that would have cancellations but all Ryanair flights to the UK (Manchester/Luton/Stanstead) are all for sale as of right now. All fares are €15.

SeaBreezes

the corpo wrote: »

To be practical though, you mask up as you have no control over the scenario.

What if you pop in to pay for your petrol, only one person in front of you, all looks grand, but then they take an age paying, there's a machine problem, whatever, but sh1t frequently happens. If you were already wearing your mask, no big deal, but if you weren't all of a sudden you put yourself, and others, in a compromised position. That's why it makes sense to make it mandatory. Just in case....

It's also a courtesy to those that are working in the shops. "I know you're in this environment all day, I won't be adding to your headache"

Agreed. What if you sneeze in that minute?

polesheep

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yeah its going to be a consequence. Like we're all mid to late 20s and these lads wouldn't usually be bothered with house parties

It beggars belief that the government don't get that keeping the pubs closed will lead to more house parties. They really are losing the people fast.

Doctor Jimbob

As I'm sure plenty of the posters on the restrictions will attest to, I'm not one of the "open up everything now" crowd. I have been content for the most part with the government's roadmap and I think the slow approach was in general a good idea.

That being said, I don't see the benefit in slowing things down again now. There's no evidence of a return to exponential growth in countries that, like ourselves, got things under control before reopening. We have a significantly improved testing capacity. We have very low numbers in hospital. That's not to say I think this is all over and we need to move on and restrictions won't happen again. I accept that this could come back. I'm just not seeing any evidence to justify a slowing of reopening at the moment. We need to take advantage of the current lull in cases and let a degree of normality return.

Wasn't Martin pressuring the previous government to open up faster? At the moment he seems more concerned with the nonsense going on in his party than running the country.

Christy42

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Unbelievable, there's not going to be much difference between phase 4 on Monday or phase 4 in 2 weeks time with the case numbers.

Roll back the numbers allowed to gather indoors, what are they going to police every house party in the country.

We either start to learn to live along side this or we don't

I mean they can delay it further if it hasn't improved in 2 weeks so there could be a world of difference between Monday and hitting stage 4.

They can't police every house party but they can limit the amount of gatherings via businesses and it sends a harsher message that some might listen to.

As for a mask being needed for a 2 minute trip to the shop. Probably not but if you are wandering a shop for an hour then yes. So instead of an arbitrary time limit just set a simple rule that people can figure out and is easy for stores to police.

is_that_so

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

As I'm sure plenty of the posters on the restrictions will attest to, I'm not one of the "open up everything now" crowd. I have been content for the most part with the government's roadmap and I think the slow approach was in general a good idea.

That being said, I don't see the benefit in slowing things down again now. There's no evidence of a return to exponential growth in countries that, like ourselves, got things under control before reopening. We have a significantly improved testing capacity. We have very low numbers in hospital. That's not to say I think this is all over and we need to move on and restrictions won't happen again. I accept that this could come back. I'm just not seeing any evidence to justify a slowing of reopening at the moment. We need to take advantage of the current lull in cases and let a degree of normality return.

Wasn't Martin pressuring the previous government to open up faster? At the moment he seems more concerned with the nonsense going on in his party than running the country.

You'd wonder whether it was some muttering from NPHET of being ignored that was at the heart of it.

Ten of Swords

Assetbacked do not post in this thread again

s1ippy

Arghus wrote: »

I think the 1000 cancelled flights yesterday tells a different story.

Yep, far from me flying to Spain tomorrow, the flight has been cancelled, as have they all until September. Absolutely delighted.

Now if only they would do the same with the Transatlantic ones.

fritzelly

marno21 wrote: »

That was a threat (so far).

Kerry was one of the airports mentioned that would have cancellations but all Ryanair flights to the UK (Manchester/Luton/Stanstead) are all for sale as of right now. All fares are €15.

Malaga 80 euro return - plenty of flights happening (actually very cheap for this time of year)
Just need to look at accommodation now and dream of that nice cool pint in the sun

What Username Guidelines

If we can’t open pubs at 0.3% testing rate, when can we? It’s the carrot and stick approach but no one knows if we’re to flatten the curve or eradicate the virus? Hospitals are absolutely fine. We’ll never get to zero cases so I’m not even sure what the goal is anymore.

is_that_so

Household clusters rise from Fergal Bowers.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0715/1153327-ireland-coronavirus-covid19/

fritzelly

is_that_so wrote: »

Household clusters rise from Fergal Bowers.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0715/1153327-ireland-coronavirus-covid19/

Thats been happening the past month or so since phase 1 - it's not new

ACitizenErased

is_that_so wrote: »

Household clusters rise from Fergal Bowers.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0715/1153327-ireland-coronavirus-covid19/

Fergal once again with groundbreaking journalism

Really don't get the food rule at all. Surely if fewer places are open, more people will be in each one. Didn't London reduce the number of trains and we all laughed at how dumb it was..

stephenjmcd

s1ippy wrote: »

Yep, far from me flying to Spain tomorrow, the flight has been cancelled, as have they all until September. Absolutely delighted.

Now if only they would do the same with the Transatlantic ones.

Flights are being cancelled because there's 40% schedules in operation. This whole 1000 flight thing is nonsense, they probably would have been cut anyway with a reduced schedule.

There's plenty of flights to Spain available

is_that_so

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Fergal once again with groundbreaking journalism

Indeed, although his longer more reflective pieces are not bad with a cup of coffee!

Drumpot

is_that_so wrote: »

There needs to be some conversation about masks and for how long. Putting them on and hoping numbers won't rise is really not a very good health policy. In that scenario it should be a return to what is known to work - shutting things down and we need to hear that too.

There needs to be a discussion, definitely agree with that. I’m not a scientist but I know masks do reduce the potential spread of a cough or sneeze. I don’t know how effective they are but what I do know is some countries are turning to making them mandatory. It also seems to be fairly common in asian countries who are widely recognised as the best at managing these virus’s. Why is that? Why would they wear masks if they were not that helpful? Is it simply a cultural thing or do there evidence that shows its benefits? I’m not saying I have the answer, but if it was definitively clear we would know by now and Trump (the last person in the world who wanted to wear a mask) wouldn’t be wearing any.

In terms of timetable , I suppose we could do it from an infection perspective. At what point do we see a rise in numbers that make masks required. That’s fair and I’d love to see more forums on these sort of discussions.

It just seems like there is an open/close type strategies unfolding. I don’t want that, I’d prefer open , maybe slightly closed if surge and wonder if the wearing of masks even when numbers are low will help prevent it.

I don’t want to wear masks, I just want us to do now whatever we need to start doing to make sure we don’t need another lockdown.

Arghus

is_that_so wrote: »

They are up to a point, but they do need to see an endgame, which we don't have. Most people I meet are thoroughly fed up with it all, but soldier on.

I think, whether we like it or not, we don't have control over the endgame.

The strategy seems to be hope for the best and hope masks, some adherence to guidelines and a better testing and tracing system allows us to soldier on until a vaccine hopefully arrives. There's a lot of hoping and praying there.

A lot of people are dead set against the Covid free strategy. And it does have many flaws - practically, politically - but I think if the will was actually there it could be done. Look, I don't know if it's workable, but in theory it does give you more of a plan and coherence. And I wonder if we are still in the same position in 6/7/8 months - which we could easily be - will there be a shift of attitudes towards it.

is_that_so

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

If we can’t open pubs at 0.3% testing rate, when can we? It’s the carrot and stick approach but no one knows if we’re to flatten the curve or eradicate the virus? Hospitals are absolutely fine. We’ll never get to zero cases so I’m not even sure what the goal is anymore.

COVID Zero baby, is where we're heading for the next 18 months!

bodhrandude

setanta1984 wrote: »

Except the only 100% concrete irrefutable evidence we do have is that it is NOT because of masks. That is indisputable. Because it's the only thing that was 100% not done up to this point.

How anyone can argue with this makes no sense to me.

It's so backwards it's hilarious - the only time when it may have been understandable to mandate something like this, at the very beginning when thousands there were thousands of cases, and everyone was scared witless, we actively discouraged them. And the case numbers plummeted anyway. Now that we have almost no incidence of the disease in the country, we're talking about imposing on 5 million people they can't buy a bottle of milk from the corner shop without one? For how long? We're never going to be in a better position than we are now, so it's facemasks for 5 million people indefinitely until global eradication??

There is no logic there, based on concrete statistics, no matter what mental gymnastics you want to attempt.

If they are going to make masks in shops law they are going to have to supply them free, they are free in Singapore, why can't they be free in Ireland.

stephenjmcd

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

If we can’t open pubs at 0.3% testing rate, when can we? It’s the carrot and stick approach but no one knows if we’re to flatten the curve or eradicate the virus? Hospitals are absolutely fine. We’ll never get to zero cases so I’m not even sure what the goal is anymore.

we do two thirds more testing in a week than a month ago and find 10 extra cases roughly per day and they take the kick the can down the road option.

If your doing at times 9000 tests a day with a postivity rate of 0.3 thats not going to drop much lower

Arghus

is_that_so wrote: »

Indeed, although his longer more reflective pieces are not bad with a cup of coffee!

I think his columns at the weekend are surprisingly great. Really humane and empathetic.

Drumpot

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

If we can’t open pubs at 0.3% testing rate, when can we? It’s the carrot and stick approach but no one knows if we’re to flatten the curve or eradicate the virus? Hospitals are absolutely fine. We’ll never get to zero cases so I’m not even sure what the goal is anymore.

Agree.

I think we are going to have to experiment to a degree and the best time is when numbers are low. I don’t use pubs so have no skin in the game but open then up and regulate the reactions in terms of COVID.

US2

Is the bar in the dail open at the moment does anyone know ?

is_that_so

Arghus wrote: »

I think, whether we like it or not, we don't have control over the endgame.

The strategy seems to be hope for the best and hope masks, some adherence to guidelines and a better testing and tracing system allows us to soldier on until a vaccine hopefully arrives. There's a lot of hoping and praying there.

A lot of people are dead set against the Covid free strategy. And it does have many flaws - practically, politically - but I think if the will was actually there it could be done. Look, I don't know if it's workable, but in theory it does give you more of a plan and coherence. And I wonder if we are still in the same position in 6/7/8 months - which we could easily be - will there be a shift of attitudes towards it.

The endgame is working vaccines and we can see those slowly beginning to emerge. Sure COVID zero would be great but just how long do you persist with it until you realise it can't be done?

polesheep

is_that_so wrote: »

COVID Zero baby, is where we're heading for the next 18 months!

It looks that way. In the beginning I feared that the government strategy was that if every citizen couldn't go about their life freely then no one could. Leo Varadkar began to ease that fear for me, especially when he had those few cans in the park. Now, I'm back to believing that there will be no freedoms until the most vulnerable in society can enjoy the same freedoms (not that that is ever possible).

Eod100

Arghus wrote: »

I think his columns at the weekend are surprisingly great. Really humane and empathetic.

I've enjoyed them too.

castletownman

US2 wrote: »

Is the bar in the dail open at the moment does anyone know ?

Ask Barry Cowen. Make sure he doesn't have his car keys with him though.

ACitizenErased

They can't be going for COVID-zero with their quarantine policy. It's not possible. They're being incredibly hypocritical by punishing the regular person and allowing tourists to roam free.

AdamD

is_that_so wrote: »

The endgame is working vaccines and we can see those slowly beginning to emerge. Sure COVID zero would be great but just how long do you persist with it until you realise it can't be done?

In fairness we're not even persisting with it, we never even tried it. Going for Covid zero would involve a full lockdown and closing the borders. If we're gonna do it, you gotta close the borders. If we're not closing the borders then 0 Covid shouldn't even be discussed.

stephenjmcd

Drumpot wrote: »

Agree.

I think we are going to have to experiment to a degree and the best time is when numbers are low. I don’t use pubs so have no skin in the game but open then up and regulate the reactions in terms of COVID.

Agree with you there. The vast majority of the ones open now have proven they can implement guidelines so a point comes where you have to let other sectors also implement guidelines, at the end of the day their all businesses that can't be strung along.

Unfortunately pushing back a few weeks will see more go to the wall.

polesheep

stephenjmcd wrote: »

we do two thirds more testing in a week than a month ago and find 10 extra cases roughly per day and they take the kick the can down the road option.

If your doing at times 9000 tests a day with a postivity rate of 0.3 thats not going to drop much lower

All the more reason not to get tested (if you were that way inclined).

What Username Guidelines

stephenjmcd wrote: »

we do two thirds more testing in a week than a month ago and find 10 extra cases roughly per day and they take the kick the can down the road option.

If your doing at times 9000 tests a day with a postivity rate of 0.3 thats not going to drop much lower

Exactly. 0.3% is lower than the false positivity rate of the PCR test. Now I’m not doubting there are people contracting this, but the goal cannot possibly be much lower.

ACitizenErased

10th of August is the new date according to BBC NI

ACitizenErased

2 more deaths RIP

14 additional cases

stephenjmcd

So if I've got this right, we'll get a green list and your free to go to a country on it and roam around, go out for dinner and a few drinks or just a few drinks if you want, come home, no quarantine and go on as normal.

But you can't go to a pub here without a €9 meal.

Any logic there ?

Atlantic Dawn

Not opening the pubs because there's a rise in young people being infected as a result of them attending house parties is the most idiotic decision yet in this mess and will only encourage even more house parties.

schmoo2k

ACitizenErased wrote: »

10th of August is the new date according to BBC NI

Was just on Matt Cooper as well - IMO its prudent... They could have gone with a regional opening, not sure what the correct call is, but suspect this is the right one.

polesheep

stephenjmcd wrote: »

So if I've got this right, we'll get a green list and your free to go to a country on it and roam around, go out for dinner and a few drinks or just a few drinks if you want, come home, no quarantine and go on as normal.

But you can't go to a pub here without a €9 meal.

Any logic there ?

You're assuming a green list.