Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

CalamariFritti

robfowler78 wrote: »

But how long really can it carry on this way. I know people say vaccine but if it doesn't happen I really cant see away out the way things are going.

Exactly may sentiment. Just edited the previous post. Its going to get ugly yet.

Atlantic Dawn

Strazdas wrote: »

A sneak preview of the 'green list' perhaps. These seven European countries have lower rates of Covid-19 than ourselves :

Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Finland, Hungary, Estonia, Cyprus, Malta

I'd rather get my tent and go Courtown if that's the options available

cnocbui

KathleenGrant wrote: »

The moral high ground nonsense....??? The moral high ground that thinks that it hits elderly more but that each elderly person deserves to live as long as they can. Especially because that generation got nothing easy, worked hard for every thing they got and made sacrifices over and above what any of us will ever make?

Plenty of us also have elderly relatives that might not expect "the whole country" to bunker down to protect them but some of us are not selfish enough to think that's ok.

It's not a zero-sum game. To what degree do you think the lives of younger people should be ruined in order for the old to not have to cocoon?

How many years do we consign everyone who worked in tourism to joblessness, and keep children out of schools?

Jim_Hodge

Minnie Snuggles wrote: »

I would hope that the rate of testing in countries would be also taken into consideration.

Agreed. I'm just wondering how he conjured up his green list.

D.Q

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Did a poll did you? So far the feeling I'm getting around here is positive enough and most people willing to give it a few more weeks and the masks issue is no big deal at all.

Depends on who you talk to but don't suppose everybody agrees with you,

No problem with the masks. Can't hurt to wear them give it a go.

I have a problem with the differentiation between pubs based on a substantial 9e meal.

I have a problem with the flights coming in basically unchecked.

It's not even the pubs. I can get a pint, I can see my friends. The day to day isn't affected.

It's the complete and utter lack of any consistent vision or logic.

If they came out and decided to completely eradicate the virus, I wouldn't agree but I would comply. As long as ALL public health measures were pointed towards that goal. So close ALL the pubs and stop the flights. At least that would be consistent and make sense.

Currently all the messages are so contradictory and don't make any sense at all. And that's just a depressing place to be for me. If we're restricting our freedoms for the greater good, I'd like to be able to see how the greater good is being achieved. Not some headless chicken, hodgepodge attempt at directions. We've all given up alot, we deserve to be given valid reasons why.

theballz

Mary Lou (aka “where’s me gaf?”) has truly been a disgraceful and incompassionate moronic political leader since this pandemic hit this country. “Where’s me gaf” disappeared when things were at there worst and now she’s back using it to fuel her political agenda.

That women is a disgrace and a distraction to our recovery.

schmoo2k

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Martin suggesting that phase 4 will go ahead on 10th August. He seems fairly confident of it.

So if case numbers are still the same in 3 weeks time what on earth will be different then from now.

Just the knowledge the steps taken (or not taken - flights for example) have made no material difference, then open the pubs and see if they make a difference, then open the schools and see if they make a difference.

Each one will have some affect and we need to be able to react quickly. Its not like reverting to the original schedule is a huge surprise?

JP Liz V1

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

RTE news just announced that civil servants who leave the country for non essential travel will have to take 2 weeks annual/unpaid leave when they return to isolate. That will go down well with unions

What about any of our government going abroad, isolate for 2 weeks on returning

ACitizenErased

theballz wrote: »

Mary Lou (aka “where’s me gaf?”) has truly been a disgraceful and incompassionate moronic political leader since this pandemic hit this country. “Where’s me gaf” disappeared when things were at there worst and now she’s back using it to fuel her political agenda.

That women is a disgrace and a distraction to our recovery.

as far as i know this is the covid-19 thread

Jim_Hodge

D.Q wrote: »

No problem with the masks. Can't hurt to wear them give it a go.

I have a problem with the differentiation between pubs based on a substantial 9e meal.

I have a problem with the flights coming in basically unchecked.

It's not even the pubs. I can get a pint, I can see my friends. The day to day isn't affected.

It's the complete and utter lack of any consistent vision or logic.

If they came out and decided to completely eradicate the virus, I wouldn't agree but I would comply. As long as ALL public health measures were pointed towards that goal. So close ALL the pubs and stop the flights. At least that would be consistent and make sense.

Currently all the messages are so contradictory and don't make any sense at all. And that's just a depressing place to be for me. If we're restricting our freedoms for the greater good, I'd like to be able to see how the greater good is being achieved. Not some headless chicken, hodgepodge attempt at directions. We've all given up alot, we deserve to be given valid reasons why.

Grand but I was asking how you maintained people were mostly against the latest moves. You are. Some others are. But that's as much as you can maintain .

What Username Guidelines

I think from the last recession I’ve been primed to hate FF and I didn’t really know why. I left college in 2006, worked in the building industry and lost my job in 2010. Managed to get work quick enough in another industry and have been in it since. Still didn’t fully understand why I hated FF. But now I do. I’ve no interest in pubs personally but a serious lack of balls in this government and what is in my opinion a massive misreading of the data.

timsey tiger

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Exactly, as a pandemic ends, R0 doesn’t actually approach zero, it approaches 1. This is because so few cases will have a heavier effect on the calculation. 500 cases going to 1000 is simply explained as R0 is 2. But a small cluster can inflate the numbers, like 1 cases in sligo infecting 16 makes R0 16. So you’ve got to view it in the context of R0 of 2 vs 16 when new cases are 1000 vs 16.

This is utter rubbish. As the pandemic ends. The last patent doesn't pass it to anyone so. R = 0.

When you have low numbers you get wild fluctuations especially. if you are unlucky enough to have a superspreader event.

There however is no law that says R has to approach 1. This would just imply that the virus has just become endemic in the population at a stable level and by definition isn't going to end any time soon, with on average each case passing it onto one other.

Seamai

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Plenty are. France for example, cafes are fairly central to life and serve the same function as a pub. Italy and Spain are similar. How are they getting on?

I've been to Italy a lot and I can tell you that I've rarely seen any of the locals drunk falling around in a bar, you'll see far more physical contact in an Irish bar once people get a few drinks in them. While they serve the same function they work very differently.

robfowler78

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Exactly may sentiment. Just edited the previous post. Its going to get ugly yet.

Problem is you cant ask that question with out been told "as long as it takes". That's not much good to people who have lost their jobs and kids that need to be in school. I can see it getting really ugly when the covid payment is gone jobs start to be lost.

Mad and unpopular as it is Until we see a full open world dealing with this virus we won't know how badly the effects of it will be long term and over all.

spockety

Strazdas wrote: »

A sneak preview of the 'green list' perhaps. These seven European countries have lower rates of Covid-19 than ourselves :

Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Finland, Hungary, Estonia, Cyprus, Malta

The green list won't only be countries the same or lower than us. It'll be "similar" rates, probably below a threshold like 10 or 15 per 100k over 14 days. It'll be designed to include most of our EU partners.

ACitizenErased

timsey tiger wrote: »

This is utter rubbish. As the pandemic ends. The last patent doesn't pass it to anyone so. R = 0.

When you have low numbers you get wild fluctuations especially. if you are unlucky enough to have a superspreader event.

There however is no law that says R has to approach 1. This would just imply that the virus has just become endemic in the population at a stable level and by definition isn't going to end any time soon, with on average each case passing it onto one other.

How is it utter rubbish? They literally said in the briefings that r approaches 1 as numbers reduce. R doesn't go down in epidemics.

JP Liz V1

theballz wrote: »

Mary Lou (aka “where’s me gaf?”) has truly been a disgraceful and incompassionate moronic political leader since this pandemic hit this country. “Where’s me gaf” disappeared when things were at there worst and now she’s back using it to fuel her political agenda.

That women is a disgrace and a distraction to our recovery.

TBF, she did have the virus bad herself

Stheno

Strazdas wrote: »

A sneak preview of the 'green list' perhaps. These seven European countries have lower rates of Covid-19 than ourselves :

Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Finland, Hungary, Estonia, Cyprus, Malta

Hmm I was hoping to holiday in Malta this year.

I'm not so sure about the plane though
It is a direct flight however.

I sent my FF TD another email asking how in the name of god they can justify the completely illogical approach taken by MM tonight.

D.Q

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Grand but I was asking how you maintained people were mostly against the latest moves. You are. Some others are. But that's as much as you can maintain .

Ok so zeroing in on a few words in my post to score a point? You win that point, good for you. Obviously not everyone agrees with me. But enough do to create that echo chamber vibe. Dunno what else to say to you tbh.

r93kaey5p2izun

I heard today that contact tracing is only going back 48h now. Is that true? Does anyone have any links to the reasoning?

Someone I know was told by a friend they were with for the day 4 days ago that they have tested positive, but friend won't be officially counted as a contact and offered a test by HSE contact tracing. GP has advised paying for a private test as he feels the risk is still there.

nocoverart

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I'd rather get my tent and go Courtown if that's the options available

Would love Poland on the list, a truly underrated gem of a country.

Strumms

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Plenty are. France for example, cafes are fairly central to life and serve the same function as a pub. Italy and Spain are similar. How are they getting on?

Cafes in the main, in Italy, Spain and France are not backdrops for people just going out and getting hammered. Cafes in these countries have people just dropping in for food and a glass of wine only, both AM and PM... coffee and a pastry, sharing a bottle of wine, a beer, maybe two... they don’t per say, go in to get hammered. The ambiance too is relaxed and relaxing, mostly table service.

timsey tiger

thelad95 wrote: »

R number is no longer relevant. Cluster of ten pops up, theoretically gives an R number of 10, all close contacts are traced and tested, isolate for two weeks and recover and this cluster is controlled.

R number is relevant when it's vastly out of control, think late March to early May. When the case number is low and oscillating it makes no sense.

The media at present is nothing short of disgraceful in its over sensationalism. Dublin Live had a headline tonight about how the government is delaying the opening of the pubs due to the arrival of a second wave. Jesus wept.

R number is still relevant, from little acorns giant trees grow.

However, when the numbers are low we have time to adjust the environment to reduce it.

Also it will fluctuate wildly with random superspreader events which are not an issue if we are aware of them.

If however, R is consistentlyvabove 1 and we don't do anything to mitigate it then we will have trouble coming down the tracks slowly at first almost like you wouldn't notice and then real fast.

Seamai

Stheno wrote: »

Hmm I was hoping to holiday in Malta this year.

I'm not so sure about the plane though
It is a direct flight however.

I sent my FF TD another email asking how in the name of god they can justify the completely illogical approach taken by MM tonight.

Malta's probably one of the safest places, they stopped all flights at an early stage and it paid high dividends. Given it's close proximity to Italy and with one of the highest population densities in the world I thought it would be a huge problem there.

timsey tiger

ACitizenErased wrote: »

How is it utter rubbish? They literally said in the briefings that r approaches 1 as numbers reduce. R doesn't go down in epidemics.

What they are talking about isn't ending the epidemic, they are talking about suppressing it at a low stable level.

Stheno

Sarai Ugly Video wrote: »

I heard today that contact tracing is only going back 48h now. Is that true? Does anyone have any links to the reasoning?

Someone I know was told by a friend they were with for the day 4 days ago that they have tested positive, but friend won't be officially counted as a contact and offered a test by HSE contact tracing. GP has advised paying for a private test as he feels the risk is still there.

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/testing/contact-tracing.html

Think it's something to do with you can be asymptomatic for at least two days but still infectious?

GazzaL

What happens if a shop forces someone with breathing difficulties to wear a mask, and the person then collapses and hits their head. Who's responsible? Why, after 4 months, are the Government suddenly looking to force mask wearing on people in shops?

NegativeCreep

nocoverart wrote: »

Would love Poland on the list, a truly underrated gem of a country.

I work with 2 polish lads who haven’t been home all summer to see their family. It’d be lovely if Poland was in the green list For them and thousands like them across the country.

nocoverart

timsey tiger wrote: »

R number is still relevant, from little acorns giant trees grow.

However, when the numbers are low we have time to adjust the environment to reduce it.

Also it will fluctuate wildly with random superspreader events which are not an issue if we are aware of them.

If however, R is consistentlyvabove 1 and we don't do anything to mitigate it then we will have trouble coming down the tracks slowly at first almost like you wouldn't notice and then real fast.

Ah sure I still have Six cupboards full of Pasta and a box room full of toilet roll from the first wave of scaremongering Armageddon. All's good!

timsey tiger

nocoverart wrote: »

Ah sure I still have Six cupboards full of Pasta and a box room full of toilet roll from the first wave of scaremongering Armageddon. All's good!

Don't worry there is always brexit.

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

How is it utter rubbish? They literally said in the briefings that r approaches 1 as numbers reduce. R doesn't go down in epidemics.

Tried to explain this earlier and just got a smart arse reply.

Doesn't seem to understand if you drop a cluster such as Sligo & Killarney into a low base number you get a massive jump. Such as Germany reporting 2.88 after adding a meat plant cluster, guess what it dropped back down again after that cluster worked its way through.

Watch here when these 2 clusters work there way through R drops again. Its not rocket science that they've been the cause in a sudden jump given the size.

There was also an increase to 1 in Switzerland back in early June when they were reporting a handful of cases and all cases were linked hence R was 1.

But sure look like trying to talk to a brick wall.

Atlantic Dawn

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

What about any of our government going abroad, isolate for 2 weeks on returning

Not sure, Ryanair had a dig at Micheál Martin yesterday saying is he goes to Europe and doesn't isolate it makes a mockery of the rules...

If Micheál Martin does not quarantine for 14 days after visiting Brussels this week, then why should any other Irish or EU citizen be treated differently.

https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/ryanair-to-cut-1000-ireland-uk-flights-in-aug-and-sept/

fritzelly

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Not sure, Ryanair had a dig at Micheál Martin yesterday saying is he goes to Europe and doesn't isolate it makes a mockery of the rules...

https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/ryanair-to-cut-1000-ireland-uk-flights-in-aug-and-sept/

tis grand - he's getting a test when he comes back and another 7 days later

Nothing can happen

stephenjmcd

HSE Operations report

As of 18:30 ,8 covid paitents in ICU, 5 on ventilators. ICU down 2 from yestersday and no deaths reported.

As of 8pm, 13 covid paitents in general beds. No change from yesterday.

2 postive tests in hospitals in the last 24hrs, 1 each in sligo and Kilkenny.

21 patients with covid across the hosptial system

timsey tiger

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Tried to explain this earlier and just got a smart arse reply.

There was also an increase to 1 in Switzerland back in early June when they were reporting a handful of cases and all cases were linked hence R was 1.

But sure look like trying to talk to a brick wall.

With explanation like this, I guess you will be talking to that wall for a long time.

Care to elaborate why all the cases being linked resulted in R being 1.

LiquidZeb

nocoverart wrote: »

Would love Poland on the list, a truly underrated gem of a country.

I'd really recommend Warsaw. A brilliant,clean and safe city. It's up there with Europe's best. The military museum, Jewish museum and Warsaw uprising museum are out if this world. People are really missing out on it. Can't wait to get to Poland again.

r93kaey5p2izun

Stheno wrote: »

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/testing/contact-tracing.html

Think it's something to do with you can be asymptomatic for at least two days but still infectious?

I hope they're pretty confident about not being infectious 3 days prior to symptoms so. GP advising to ignore HSE and get a private test, but it's expensive.

KathleenGrant

NegativeCreep wrote: »

That is all nonsense though?

Nonsense? Nonsense that people in their 80's didn't have it easy? Nonsense that they worked hard for everything they got? Nonsense that they made sacrifices we would never have to make?

Nonsense?

GazzaL

stephenjmcd wrote: »

HSE Operations report

As of 18:30 ,8 covid paitents in ICU, 5 on ventilators. ICU down 2 from yestersday and no deaths reported.

As of 8pm, 13 covid paitents in general beds. No change from yesterday.

2 postive tests in hospitals in the last 24hrs, 1 each in sligo and Kilkenny.

21 patients with covid across the hosptial system

21 people in hospital with COVID, in the whole country! Yet here we are discussing making masks mandatory in shops that have been open for the entire duration of the lockdown, while jobs are being lost, non-COVID conditions are going undiagnosed and untreated, and lives are being destroyed.

ACitizenErased

stephenjmcd wrote: »

HSE Operations report

As of 18:30 ,8 covid paitents in ICU, 5 on ventilators. ICU down 2 from yestersday and no deaths reported.

As of 8pm, 13 covid paitents in general beds. No change from yesterday.

2 postive tests in hospitals in the last 24hrs, 1 each in sligo and Kilkenny.

21 patients with covid across the hosptial system

It's 13 total no? Think the 13 includes the 8 in ICU

Atlantic Dawn

GazzaL wrote: »

21 people in hospital with COVID, in the whole country! Yet here we are discussing making masks mandatory in shops that have been open for the entire duration of the lockdown, while jobs are being lost, non-COVID conditions are going undiagnosed and untreated, and lives are being destroyed.

They should give us a breakdown of their age and existing health conditions too for additional farcicality.

snowstorm445

In castigating and cracking down on Irish people trying to return to normality in their own country, while at the same time bending over backwards to not only welcome in American tourists, but allow them effective free reign in this country, the new government is failing in one of the basic duties of national leadership, to protect their own people. I don't think it is hyperbolic to see this as the government valuing our perceived image in America over our own safety. American tourist money is worth more than Irish lives. Being closer to Boston than Berlin is now literally proving to be a threat to public health.

It's only been two weeks, but Fianna Fáil have, entirely predictably, shown themselves up for what they are, a party only interested in power for power's sake, utterly craven and devoid of any actual positive ability to lead, statesmanship, or any of the qualities needed to run a country during a crisis, let alone in normal circumstances. I am doubtful that any aspect of the party has changed in any substantial way from their last time in power. And to make it all worse, it has been coupled with the dithering weakness of Micheál Martin, a man desperately determined to be Taoiseach at all costs, but who, now in office, has shown how unfit he was for the position after all. God knows how we would have fared with this lot in charge during the Brexit negotiations. After how they were punished for their behaviour ten years ago, they really must be determined to bury themselves for good.

KathleenGrant

cnocbui wrote: »

It's not a zero-sum game. To what degree do you think the lives of younger people should be ruined in order for the old to not have to cocoon?

How many years do we consign everyone who worked in tourism to joblessness, and keep children out of schools?

Whose lives are ruined?
How many years? Lockdown started in March. This is July. Not even 0.5 of a year.

Ae Fond Kiss

BringBackMick wrote: »

I actually cannot believe what I am hearing. He is actually so uneducated. It is an insult he is our leader.

Maybe Mick McCarthy could do a better job?

fritzelly

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

They should give us a breakdown of their age and existing health conditions too for additional farcicality.

MM wanting more openness and clarity about the cases etc when in opposition now thinks a county breakdown is perfectly adequate

stephenjmcd

timsey tiger wrote: »

With explanation like this, I guess you will be talking to that wall for a long time.

Care to elaborate why all the cases being linked resulted in R being 1.

I explained R to you this morning and got a smart arsed reply what do you expect?

You've actually no idea how R is affected by sudden changes ie clusters as you've proven in other replies.

Well its quite straight forward really, when the Swiss cases got down to a handful of cases they tracked each case gave it to 1 person, hence R is 1. Your talking less than 10 cases a day but R was 1.

Can you not accept that having a cluster of 15 in Killarney and sligo will give R a massive inflation that isn't accurate of the national picture. I've also given you the Germany explain.

Not sure how else it can be explained.

Ae Fond Kiss

BringBackMick wrote: »

The most depressing depressing speech i have heard in my life. Shoot me now.

Leo please push now.

I didn't realise he was behind ya.

NegativeCreep

KathleenGrant wrote: »

Nonsense? Nonsense that people in their 80's didn't have it easy? Nonsense that they worked hard for everything they got? Nonsense that they made sacrifices we would never have to make?

Nonsense?

Complete and utter nonsense yes. Nonsense to assume based on someone’s age that they’ve had a harder life than anyone else’s and it’s certainly not some weird reason to keep people out of work. If the over eighties are so worried (and any that I know aren’t by the way) then they can cocoon themselves.

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's 13 total no? Think the 13 includes the 8 in ICU

Good point that, I was always under the impression that the ICU and acute beds were reported separately.

Open to correction though.

Ae Fond Kiss

Arghus wrote: »

This thread used to be the sensible one.

There are a lot of small people with big egos here Arghus. Very few with your common sense.