Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

CalamariFritti

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Said it before I'll say it again. What the fcuk changes in 3 weeks time
https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1283664780486680576?s=09

It could materially add to the possibility.

What the actual fvck is that?

How can something that only 'could' add to a 'possibility' be material at the same time. Language contortions to deflect from the fact he's talking out his hole.

stephenjmcd

No point in getting into the R debate again at this stage but its simple stupidity to be predicting 160 cases a day when R is volatile due to 2 large clusters recently, its not accurate. We've been told as much by prof Nolan yet here we are with this being rolled out.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1283661859862831104?s=19

Doctor Jimbob

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Said it before I'll say it again. What the fcuk changes in 3 weeks time
https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1283664780486680576?s=09

In fairness at least he's explaining the reasoning behind the decision there. I still don't understand why pubs are staying closed while tourists are coming in from hotspots but it's a step up from the rambling about house parties last night.

stephenjmcd

CalamariFritti wrote: »

It could add materially to the possibility.

What the actual fvck is that?

How can something that only 'could' add to a 'possibility' be material at the same time.

He's on fire this morning, we could see 160 cases per day in 3 weeks based on R at the moment. R is sky high because of 2 large clusters that have been dealt with. I honestly don't understand how on earth they can come out with this sort of stuff, low case numbers, abnormal cluster size, R goes high until these clusters have worked their way through, its simple

stephenjmcd

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

In fairness at least he's explaining the reasoning behind the decision there. I still don't understand why pubs are staying closed while tourists are coming in from hotspots but it's a step up from the rambling about house parties last night.

But we'll be back here again in 3 weeks, same position, same debate, kick the can down the road again?

Unless there's some stupidly large clusters there's going to be a level of cases per day in or around what we're at now

CalamariFritti

stephenjmcd wrote: »

He's on fire this morning, we could see 160 cases per day in 3 weeks based on R at the moment. R is sky high because of 2 large clusters that have been dealt with. I honestly don't understand how on earth they can come out with this sort of stuff, low case numbers, abnormal cluster size, R goes high until these clusters have worked their way through, its simple

In complete ignorance of what R is and how it comes bout and what happened to R in other countries. I don't believe a word of it. Not even those guys could be that stupid. They're at it.

KrustyUCC

I wonder did the fact that Martin is a teetotaler factor into the decision?

A couple I know have had to postpone their wedding due to this 'pause' meaning they can no longer ask 40 people

Few FF members I've spoken to very disallusioned with him

Making a mess of the job so far

shinzon

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Said it before I'll say it again. What the fcuk changes in 3 weeks time
https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1283664780486680576?s=09

Theres something more to this then just the r number being between 1.2-1.8 in such small case numbers and house parties and fears for a second wave. Im not sure what that something is but im convinced theres something there not telling us

Shin

Doctor Jimbob

shinzon wrote: »

Theres something more to this then just the r number being between 1.2-1.8 in such small case numbers and house parties and fears for a second wave. Im not sure what that something is but im convinced theres something there not telling us

Shin

It's the bank holiday I'd say.

podgeandrodge

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No point in getting into the R debate again at this stage but its simple stupidity to be predicting 160 cases a day when R is volatile due to 2 large clusters recently, its not accurate. We've been told as much by prof Nolan yet here we are with this being rolled out.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1283661859862831104?s=19

stephenjmcd wrote: »

He's on fire this morning, we could see 160 cases per day in 3 weeks based on R at the moment. R is sky high because of 2 large clusters that have been dealt with. I honestly don't understand how on earth they can come out with this sort of stuff, low case numbers, abnormal cluster size, R goes high until these clusters have worked their way through, its simple

Another side to this of course is that, if anything goes wrong wherever, and cases rise for some reason to that level, he will be 'proven' right. And if nothing happens in 3 weeks, he will say that it was due to the extended lockdown.

hmmm

KrustyUCC wrote: »

A couple I know have had to postpone their wedding due to this 'pause' meaning they can no longer ask 40 people

Few FF members I've spoken to very disallusioned with him

He's not taking these decisions for the craic. Unless these "disillusioned" people have some ideas to share as to how a respiratory virus can be prevented from spreading in indoor settings, they're just the usual moaners on the sidelines. How many of them are even bothering to wear a mask today?

Widdensushi

What's with the extra restrictions in supermarkets, has there been a surge in cases transmitted there? The measures taken previously seemed to work very well.

hmmm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Said it before I'll say it again. What the fcuk changes in 3 weeks time

We'll know whether cases are rising (which they appear to be), or whether they will stabilise. The whole point of having a phased reopening was to know when to pull the plug if cases started to rise again.

ZX7R

shinzon wrote: »

Theres something more to this then just the r number being between 1.2-1.8 in such small case numbers and house parties and fears for a second wave. Im not sure what that something is but im convinced theres something there not telling us

Shin

Hospital space, there is a big push now to resume none covid practice.
There's no way in hell our hospitals can cope with both at the same time.
It also explains the uptake in testing in nursing homes ect ,if they stay on top of that it will allow normal practice to resume at a greater rate.
Our largest number of people in covid wards were old people sadly and there is plenty more of them left to secombe to the virus.

stephenjmcd

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Another side to this of course is that, if anything goes wrong wherever, and cases rise for some reason to that level, he will be 'proven' right. And if nothing happens in 3 weeks, he will say that it was due to the extended lockdown.

Yup there is that too. I'd love to know though if we're at 20/30 cases in 3 weeks time and they go ahead with phase 4 questions will be asked as to well what was the point in those 3 weeks when the cases are more or less the same

stephenjmcd

shinzon wrote: »

Theres something more to this then just the r number being between 1.2-1.8 in such small case numbers and house parties and fears for a second wave. Im not sure what that something is but im convinced theres something there not telling us

Shin

As another poster said probably bank holiday, the same as it was back the last few bank holidays, sorry we can't start the reopening because there's a bank holiday we don't trust everyone to behave

Gruffalux

Unlike boards posters who can rage without consequence the people who have to make these sorts of decisions will have to live with the actual historical legacy. They can see places like Israel. They cannot be as coldly utilitarian as some on here want them to be. Politicians elsewhere eg UK or Sweden have to live with knowing their actions led to increased death numbers. If I was in charge I would err on the side of caution. Build a fire pit in the backyard and drink saluting the moon for a few more weeks - the pubs are not all that.

hmmm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yup there is that too. I'd love to know though if we're at 20/30 cases in 3 weeks time and they go ahead with phase 4 questions will be asked as to well what was the point in those 3 weeks when the cases are more or less the same

It's about whether the cases are rising or falling, how many contacts everyone has, mobility data, and all the other parameters feeding into the models trying to predict the future behaviour of the virus. There will be a lag between initial infection, hospitalisation, ICU & death, and we can't wait until things become obvious to start trying to get control. Obviously the models are showing there have been changes in the inputs which are heading in the wrong direction.

KrustyUCC

The more you open up cases will increase some just like every other country

It should have been expected

Also more testing will pick more cases

Our positive rate is still extremely small and steady

But ah no we'll just panic, kick the can down the road and cost the economy hundreds of millions

Couldn't have the country open for a bank holiday

I'm looking forward to seeing how they will ruin the October one already

wadacrack

7 day moving average July 7th was 9
7 day moving average July 14th jumped to 20

Erring on the side of caution is the correct move for me. Claiming that its just due to small clusters etc is not a good argument. I think most counties have had cases within the last 2 weeks. If we open pubs quickly now schools unlikely to open and Sports unlikely to proceed. Another hard lockdown increasingly likely and everything the country has worked hard for to protect society will be lost. People need to try and think of the long term implications if we rush out of this. Its going to be long haul dealing with this virus, pushing back plans 3 weeks likely to prove to be a good decision in the long term. Countries that act quickly on a sudden surge have fared much better as seen in Asia . Israel and Eastern Europe sadly now are struggling with a 2nd wave

hmmm

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The more you open up cases will increase some just like every other country

Yep, and then the hope was that they would level off.

Obviously our data is showing an increase, and the leveling off is uncertain. So we'll wait a bit, because otherwise we might end up struggling like Spain is currently.

Azatadine

Coupled with the Oxford vaccine potential good news, this is aldo good.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-scientists-uncover-sars-cov-specific-cell-immunity.html

KrustyUCC

AFAIK we will be the last country in Europe with normal pubs closed at this stage

KrustyUCC

hmmm wrote: »

Yep, and then the hope was that they would level off.

Obviously our data is showing an increase, and the leveling off is uncertain. So we'll wait a bit, because otherwise we might end up struggling like Spain is currently.

Then repeat in three weeks time?

Is the plan to get to 0 cases?

I don't think we will ever get there

is_that_so

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

I know a pub doing that. In fairness they are offering a proper menu, not just sausages and chips etc

Oh yeah, what you'd expect!

hmmm

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Then repeat in three weeks time?

Is the plan to get to 0 cases?

I don't think we will ever get there

The plan is to stabilise the number of cases, not get to zero. We knew that reopening might mean a few more cases, but with contact tracing and general social distancing the hope was that we could maintain that level. That's still the aim, but the decisions are based on the data and where the modelers think the slope is pointing.

Charles Babbage

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Then repeat in three weeks time?

Is the plan to get to 0 cases?

I don't think we will ever get there

This it s not s out zero cases, it us because cases gave doubled in the last week, albeit from a low base. Unless you are Donald Trump you cannot advocate reducing restrictions when cases are increasing.

robbiezero

Gruffalox wrote: »

Unlike boards posters who can rage without consequence the people who have to make these sorts of decisions will have to live with the actual historical legacy. They can see places like Israel. They cannot be as coldly utilitarian as some on here want them to be. Politicians elsewhere eg UK or Sweden have to live with knowing their actions led to increased death numbers. If I was in charge I would err on the side of caution. Build a fire pit in the backyard and drink saluting the moon for a few more weeks - the pubs are not all that.

tens of thousands of peoples livelihoods are dependent on the pubs. Thousands of small business owners across the country are devastated by this decisions after huge preparation to re-open on Monday, now thrown into uncertainty.
Why dont you tell them to go howl at the moon.
Not everything comes down to just wanting a few pints.

Eod100

The Vintners have lost the plot https://twitter.com/BreakfastNT/status/1283668289521057798?s=19

EDit

Widdensushi wrote: »

What's with the extra restrictions in supermarkets, has there been a surge in cases transmitted there? The measures taken previously seemed to work very well.

From my experience (purely anecdotal, of course) people are becoming less compliant with social distancing and other prior “rules” that we had/have in supermarkets. For example, Go back a month or two at my local supermarket and you’d be hard pressed to see anyone shopping in groups of 2 or more (ie, all single shoppers) and there were lots with very full trolleys (suggesting a once-weekly shop). Now, there are people shopping in pairs or even all the family and the self-service and less-than-10 items tills are packed. I’m even finding myself that I am popping to the shop much more often than I was before the restrictions were lifted.

Perhaps under those circumstances, they think that making people wear masks is preferable/more achievable versus asking people to revert to the old practices?

is_that_so

hmmm wrote: »

It's about whether the cases are rising or falling, how many contacts everyone has, mobility data, and all the other parameters feeding into the models trying to predict the future behaviour of the virus. There will be a lag between initial infection, hospitalisation, ICU & death, and we can't wait until things become obvious to start trying to get control. Obviously the models are showing there have been changes in the inputs which are heading in the wrong direction.

There's also that sudden spike in R0 the Germans got, which was largely localised and Nolan has said it's hard to pin down at such low levels.

is_that_so

Eod100 wrote: »

The Vintners have lost the plot https://twitter.com/BreakfastNT/status/1283668289521057798?s=19

They are very irate, justifiably IMO. The call on it by the government was just far too late.

GazzaL

Eod100 wrote: »

The Vintners have lost the plot https://twitter.com/BreakfastNT/status/1283668289521057798?s=19

The Government / NPHET have lost the plot. They're destroying these people's livelihoods. They're talking about making it necessary to wear masks in shops when it wasn't even a requirement at the peak of the pandemic. Complete stupidity.

Eod100

is_that_so wrote: »

They are very irate, justifiably IMO. The call on it by the government was just far too late.

I can understand their frustration to a point but this is a ridiculous suggestion tbf

Widdensushi

EDit wrote: »

From my experience (purely anecdotal, of course) people are becoming less compliant with social distancing and other prior “rules” that we had/have in supermarkets. For example, Go back a month or two at my local supermarket and you’d be hard pressed to see anyone shopping in groups of 2 or more (ie, all single shoppers) and there were lots with very full trolleys (suggesting a once-weekly shop). Now, there are people shopping in pairs or even all the family and the self-service and less-than-10 items tills are packed. I’m even finding myself that I am popping to the shop much more often than I was before the restrictions were lifted.

Perhaps under those circumstances, they think that making people wear masks is preferable/more achievable versus asking people to revert to the old practices?

It's not, the fact that supermarket employees were not catching it when it was more common shows that it's not as easily transmitted in that setting as some would have you believe, if social distancing wasn't being enforced in shops do the same as the pubs and enforce the existing measures, which worked well rather than adding more.

Eod100

GazzaL wrote: »

The Government / NPHET have lost the plot. They're destroying these people's livelihoods. They're talking about making it necessary to wear masks in shops when it wasn't even a requirement at the peak of the pandemic. Complete stupidity.

I think the decision looks worse in context of pubs with food opening 3 weeks earlier. If they hadn't this wouldn't have looked as bad. I can understand their frustration but NPHET and government have difficult balancing act. If they opened up too early and there were clusters in pubs people's confidence in going to them would drop. Hopefully they will open in 3 weeks and be able to reap benefit of the pent up demand for last 4/5 months

NIMAN

GazzaL wrote: »

The Government / NPHET have lost the plot. They're destroying these people's livelihoods. They're talking about making it necessary to wear masks in shops when it wasn't even a requirement at the peak of the pandemic. Complete stupidity.

We were able to shop in supermarkets right through the pandemic, and I rarely seen anyone with masks, yet the numbers fell off.

So the supermarkets weren't an issue during the height of the pandemic, yet they are now?

Unless the new kind of shopper who is going to 'other' types of shops isn't as clued in as the supermarket shopper?

Lets he honest, the rise in the R number is due to a breed of people who think everything is grand again, and who are living their lives like they used to. I think a large part of this is the younger generation.

is_that_so

Eod100 wrote: »

I can understand their frustration to a point but this is a ridiculous suggestion tbf

It's a reaction to something that happened last night. Let's not forget the stellar contributions some of our "experts" have made without the slightest provocation. I think they really need to nail the government on reopening in Week 2 of the "extension".They are also not the only things affected by this change.

stephenjmcd

Eod100 wrote: »

I can understand their frustration to a point but this is a ridiculous suggestion tbf

To be fair words were put in his mouth in that interview. Was listening to it and he was saying if the government want to stop house parties how is it possible without closing all off licence trade too

Gruffalux

robbiezero wrote: »

tens of thousands of peoples livelihoods are dependent on the pubs. Thousands of small business owners across the country are devastated by this decisions after huge preparation to re-open on Monday, now thrown into uncertainty.
Why dont you tell them to go howl at the moon.
Not everything comes down to just wanting a few pints.

Nobody need howl at the moon. A continuing increase will affect a lot more in the longer run. It might keep schools closed for example which would be very hard on the just short of 1 million Irish children and young people who attend for education.
We are having a global pandemic with a highly infectious novel virus. Things cannot be normal in those circumstances. It is unfortunate but it is also reality.

stephenjmcd

Eod100 wrote: »

I think the decision looks worse in context of pubs with food opening 3 weeks earlier. If they hadn't this wouldn't have looked as bad. I can understand their frustration but NPHET and government have difficult balancing act. If they opened up too early and there were clusters in pubs people's confidence in going to them would drop. Hopefully they will open in 3 weeks and be able to reap benefit of the pent up demand for last 4/5 months

and with that demand you'll see social media full of close the pubs again non sense, such as the first busy weekend of 'restaurants' and there was a melt down.

Only thing this has proved is the demand is still very much there regardless of when they open

stephenjmcd

is_that_so wrote: »

It's a reaction to something that happened last night. Let's not forget the stellar contributions some of our "experts" have made without the slightest provocation. I think they really need to nail the government on reopening in Week 2 of the "extension".They are also not the only things affected by this change.

Yup they'll need guidelines in the second week at the latest, 10 days before reopening is when restaurants got them.

If they don't get them 10 days out their getting screwed again for the 10th

owlbethere

robbiezero wrote: »

tens of thousands of peoples livelihoods are dependent on the pubs. Thousands of small business owners across the country are devastated by this decisions after huge preparation to re-open on Monday, now thrown into uncertainty.
Why dont you tell them to go howl at the moon.
Not everything comes down to just wanting a few pints.

Pubs started getting barrel deliveries in preparation for Mondays reopening. Thats a n issue right there due to cash flow problems due to being closed since March. I don't know if the breweries will be accepting returns and I forget the use by date on barrels. The barrel deliveries might be gone to waste now.

NIMAN

owlbethere wrote: »

Pubs started getting barrel deliveries in preparation for Mondays reopening. Thats a n issue right there due to cash flow problems due to being closed since March. I don't know if the breweries will be accepting returns and I forget the use by date on barrels. The barrel deliveries might be gone to waste now.

Perhaps the breweries only get paid when they are used.

I am not a pub frequenter at all, but I do feel sorry for them. Many have ploughed a lot of money into getting ready.

So many are being punished for the actions of so few.

owlbethere

KrustyUCC wrote: »

AFAIK we will be the last country in Europe with normal pubs closed at this stage

Mainland Europe has a different drinking culture to us. They tend to have a drink or two with a meal. Many people here tend to go to the pubs to get drunk.

stephenjmcd

owlbethere wrote: »

Pubs started getting barrel deliveries in preparation for Mondays reopening. Thats a n issue right there due to cash flow problems due to being closed since March. I don't know if the breweries will be accepting returns and I forget the use by date on barrels. The barrel deliveries might be gone to waste now.

6-8 weeks untapped if stored correctly, so in theory anything delivered should be ok for the 10th. If they get taken back they'll just be disposed of again.

I'd imagine they'll hang onto them for 2 weeks and see where things are heading. Credit of course will have to be extended, they can't pay for them at the moment

Eod100

stephenjmcd wrote: »

To be fair words were put in his mouth in that interview. Was listening to it and he was saying if the government want to stop house parties how is it possible without closing all off licence trade too

That's fair enough so. I can understand his frustration and does have a point about house parties. I guess they're trying to control things they can but if you're a small rural publican and have to close while people can have house party with 30 people not a bother I can see why they're ticked off.

Doctor Jimbob

owlbethere wrote: »

Mainland Europe has a different drinking culture to us. They tend to have a drink or two with a meal. Many people here tend to go to the pubs to get drunk.

While this is true to an extent I think it's being exaggerated on these threads.

I lived in Spain a few years ago. The locals would absolutely go out to get drunk as well. It's less common, but it still happens.

Random sample

Wearing masks in shops was recommended in May. Not enough people have taken up they recommendation, so they are making it mandatory. I don’t see how that’s hard to follow.

As others have said, at the height of restrictions, only one person was allowed per trolley, now entire families are shopping and social distancing is more difficult. This increases the need for masks.

If numbers remain steady for the next 3 weeks, the R0 goes down and we are in a better position to open up more.

I’d rather see health services return than pubs, regardless of the economics.

owlbethere

NIMAN wrote: »

Perhaps the breweries only get paid when they are used.

I am not a pub frequenter at all, but I do feel sorry for them. Many have ploughed a lot of money into getting ready.

So many are being punished for the actions of so few.

I'm not a big pub goer myself. I prefer gastro pubs but still i feel sorry for those who planned to open on Monday and now can't. This could add to the list of closures already.