Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

AlmightyCushion

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No point in getting into the R debate again at this stage but its simple stupidity to be predicting 160 cases a day when R is volatile due to 2 large clusters recently, its not accurate. We've been told as much by prof Nolan yet here we are with this being rolled out.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1283661859862831104?s=19

I don't recall Philip Nolan saying the R value isn't accurate at low levels. He has said it is harder to calculate which is not the same thing.

2 weeks ago Philip Nolan was saying there he was concerned about the R value being near 1. A week ago he said he was concerned as it was at or above 1 and that there were more outbreaks. Now it is between 1.2 and 1.8. You can put that down to just 2 clusters but the R value has been rising for a few weeks now so you can see what that would concern them. Not to mention that it is only 2 clusters now but with how infectious this disease is, 2 can lead to a lot more. What's the harm in holding off for a few weeks to see if the level of infection is stable and not increasing? If we the daily new cases stays low we can re-open then, if not and they keep increasing then we know we have a problem.

EDit

Widdensushi wrote: »

It's not, the fact that supermarket employees were not catching it when it was more common shows that it's not as easily transmitted in that setting as some would have you believe, if social distancing wasn't being enforced in shops do the same as the pubs and enforce the existing measures, which worked well rather than adding more.

Fair enough, you have your opinion, I have mine. Not entirely sure I understand the hardship associated with wearing a mask when popping to the shops though.

Onesea

Norway listed Ireland as a safe destination from 10th of July.


Cmon Ireland, get a plan together.

AlmightyCushion

stephenjmcd wrote: »

To be fair words were put in his mouth in that interview. Was listening to it and he was saying if the government want to stop house parties how is it possible without closing all off licence trade too

Is that what he actually said? According to the tweet, Newstalk are saying he said it should be considered to tackle house parties. That's very different to what you are saying he said. Not doubting you, by the way.

MY BAD

I feel sorry for the publicans on a personal level, but I think it was to ambitious in the first place. I think Leo wanted to have a grand announcement about the country reopening
before he left office. I think in general there is too much publicity in media for pubs, barbers, beauty salons, wedding planners! and many more non essential services. If the media focused more on cancer services and other more essential services I think it would be better for the country.

Drumpot

Widdensushi wrote: »

It's not, the fact that supermarket employees were not catching it when it was more common shows that it's not as easily transmitted in that setting as some would have you believe, if social distancing wasn't being enforced in shops do the same as the pubs and enforce the existing measures, which worked well rather than adding more.

Where is the evidence that supermarkets are safe places from the virus and what is the reason? There is also evidence that in other countries supermarket workers have not been so fortunate. Why would that be the case in other countries and nit in Ireland? What makes our supermarkets so special? Until you understand the reason for something with a virus you can’t confidently say that this is a safe area.

And in the absence of this understanding , Wearing a mask is the right/prudent course of action.

wadacrack

Bars are probably the highest risk for transmission especially in this country

https://twitter.com/BogochIsaac/status/1283415877652828160

Widdensushi

Random sample wrote: »

Wearing masks in shops was recommended in May. Not enough people have taken up they recommendation, so they are making it mandatory. I don’t see how that’s hard to follow.

As others have said, at the height of restrictions, only one person was allowed per trolley, now entire families are shopping and social distancing is more difficult. This increases the need for masks.

If numbers remain steady for the next 3 weeks, the R0 goes down and we are in a better position to open up more.

I’d rather see health services return than pubs, regardless of the economics.

What good is it if the R0 goes down, it only means that it will go up again, our borders are open and R0 means nothing at lower numbers, no need to be condescending about the masks, what is the mandatory wearing of masks in supermarkets based on as the existing measures were working? Are ff trying to change the news headlines? It looks like it.

Onesea

MY BAD wrote: »

I feel sorry for the publicans on a personal level, but I think it was to ambitious in the first place. I think Leo wanted to have a grand announcement about the country reopening
before he left office. I think in general there is too much publicity in media for pubs, barbers, beauty salons, wedding planners! and many more non essential services. If the media focused more on cancer services and other more essential services I think it would be better for the country.

They are essential services when you factor in the amount of jobs they offer the country.

Its clear the media will sing about covid long after it is gone. I am going to predict police will not enforce rules, workers will ignore rules and the economy will reopen without any government input. This has gone on far too long.

stephenjmcd

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

I don't recall Philip Nolan saying the R value isn't accurate at low levels. He has said it is harder to calculate which is not the same thing.

2 weeks ago Philip Nolan was saying there he was concerned about the R value being near 1. A week ago he said he was concerned as it was at or above 1 and that there were more outbreaks. Now it is between 1.2 and 1.8. You can put that down to just 2 clusters but the R value has been rising for a few weeks now so you can see what that would concern them. Not to mention that it is only 2 clusters now but with how infectious this disease is, 2 can lead to a lot more. What's the harm in holding off for a few weeks to see if the level of infection is stable and not increasing? If we the daily new cases stays low we can re-open then, if not and they keep increasing then we know we have a problem.

Prof Nolan

"We’ve said before that this estimate is really quite unreliable when you’ve got very low numbers, and therefore the estimate is varying quite widely"

Hurrache

wadacrack wrote: »

Bars are probably the highest risk for transmission especially in this country

https://twitter.com/BogochIsaac/status/1283415877652828160

No doubt someone will come along with an excuse as to why none of that applies to Ireland, like they always do.

MY BAD

Onesea wrote: »

They are essential services when you factor in the amount of jobs they offer the country.

Its clear the media will sing about covid long after it is gone. I am going to predict police will not enforce rules, workers will ignore rules and the economy will reopen without any government input. This has gone on far too long.

I agree they are essential when you factor in the jobs, but I should have said more important essential services when referring to cancer services and other health care services.

Onesea

stephenjmcd wrote: »

"We’ve said before that this estimate is really quite unreliable when you’ve got very low numbers, and therefore the estimate is varying quite widely"

Can you repeat that again, and again and again and again. For some reason people ignore these important bits. But the news haven't reported it so I guess it's not needed to know.

US2

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

It's the bank holiday I'd say.

Also the galway races coming up. Thousands of punters have hotels booked expecting pubs to be open.

is_that_so

Hurrache wrote: »

No doubt someone will come along with an excuse as to why none of that applies to Ireland, like they always do.

Eh, they really won't. It is known but putting it back four days before it was long due to happen is the height of bad planning.

Drumpot

Onesea wrote: »

They are essential services when you factor in the amount of jobs they offer the country.

Its clear the media will sing about covid long after it is gone. I am going to predict police will not enforce rules, workers will ignore rules and the economy will reopen without any government input. This has gone on far too long.

They are not an essential service , that’s a ridiculous statement.

They are clearly felt to be the highest risk category in terms of spread which is why they are in phase 4. What is the cost to the economy if we open up pubs too soon and the numbers rise?

There is a lot of disingenuous and very animated defence of pubs going on in here. There is two sides to the balance sheet, not one. There’s the benefits of opening up pubs and there is the cost if it turns out to be a bad call. People are assuming there is onlu negatives to Keeping pubs closed.

We can feel sorry for individual publicans but Unfortunately there are casualties in a crisis and it’s usually a case of the greater good over the few. The issue with tourists does not change that.

The problem as I see it is poor communication on the decisions being made. It’s left a vacuum and people are deciding what they think is the case.

Hurrache

is_that_so wrote: »

Eh, they really won't. It is known but putting it back four days before it was long due to happen is the height of bad planning.

They will, and I could pretty much give you the names of the posters who would.

People are comparing our pubs with cafes in France and Italy and remarking there's no issue on the continent. But a more apt comparison is with bars in party, vacation and university towns throughout America, and Canada like the one mentioned in the tweet.

robbiezero

Hurrache wrote: »

No doubt someone will come along with an excuse as to why none of that applies to Ireland, like they always do.

Yet they are not even "contemplating closing bars". No doubt you will tell us why that doesn't apply to Ireland?

Dante7

US2 wrote: »

Also the galway races coming up. Thousands of punters have hotels booked expecting pubs to be open.

Well then they are clearly idiots and deserve to lose their money. As does anyone who plans to attend a mass gathering like a race meeting.

MD1990

Pubs cant even open at 20-30 cases a day.

I dont see how they will be open for much of the year now.

Winter with the flu people will be panicking thinking they have the virus & people being more indoors will mean a rise in cases most likely.

Very worrying times for people in that industry. Would feel sorry for them.

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

No doubt someone will come along with an excuse as to why none of that applies to Ireland, like they always do.

Ha ha, you just couldn't resist, you literally just done what I said would happen with a magnificent failure to understand the comparison. Why are you even quoting "contemplating closing bars"?

robbiezero wrote: »

Yet they are not even "contemplating closing bars". No doubt you will tell us why that doesn't apply to Ireland?

stephenjmcd

US2 wrote: »

Also the galway races coming up. Thousands of punters have hotels booked expecting pubs to be open.

They were put behind closed doors ages ago

ednwireland

Onesea wrote: »

Can you repeat that again, and again and again and again. For some reason people ignore these important bits. But the news haven't reported it so I guess it's not needed to know.

doesnt fit the narrative

US2

stephenjmcd wrote: »

They were put behind closed doors ages ago

Yes they couldn't attend the racecourse but still had planned heading to galway for them. Pubs and betting go hand in hand. Thats just one of the reasons that might have been considered.

B.A._Baracus

Seems like the second wave is among us.
Pubs should remain closed until September. See what's going on first. I know it's hard on the pub industry however people are idiots.

Dante7

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Seems like the second wave is among us.
Pubs should remain closed until September. See what's going on first. I know it's hard on the pub industry however people are idiots.

A second wave with a 0.3% positivity rate from extensive testing? The government's soundbite scare propaganda seems to be working well.

is_that_so

MD1990 wrote: »

Pubs cant even open at 20-30 cases a day.

I dont see how they will be open for much of the year now.

Winter with the flu people will be panicking thinking they have the virus & people being more indoors will mean a rise in cases most likely.

Very worrying times for people in that industry. Would feel sorry for them.

It is at this point you need to see some development work of long term public health planning, not the crisis mode we've been in for months. We certainly can't function like this during a winter flu' season. At the very least it may encourage a very big take up on flu' shots.

is_that_so

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Seems like the second wave is among us.
Pubs should remain closed until September. See what's going on first. I know it's hard on the pub industry however people are idiots.

15-30 cases a day is more like a ripple, probably temporary.

RebelButtMunch

Anecdotal; but I've heard of people NOT going for tests and toughing out the virus at home. Reason; they think that the health insurers will increase their coverage charge because of suspected Covid long term effects on health.

Anyone else hear that?

MerlinSouthDub

is_that_so wrote: »

15-30 cases a day is more like a ripple, probably temporary.

It is probably a temporary ripple but I think they are right to pause for a few weeks before going ahead. The numbers have been bouncing around a bit over the past few weeks and it would be good to see them stabilising before we move to the next phase.

Atlantic Dawn

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

Anecdotal; but I've heard of people NOT going for tests and toughing out the virus at home. Reason; they think that the health insurers will increase their coverage charge because of suspected Covid long term effects on health.

Anyone else hear that?

Health insurance in Ireland doesn't work like that. Life insurance probably will down the line ask the questioning you have ever tested positive for Covid 19.

Drumpot

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Seems like the second wave is among us.
Pubs should remain closed until September. See what's going on first. I know it's hard on the pub industry however people are idiots.

Is there a second wave???

The problem as I see it is communication. Why are they doing this and not addressing the foreign travel situation? I don’t think you open pubs just because you aren’t changing your stance on travel but you need to explain your decisions if you want the population to follow.

This isn’t rocket science and it’s one of the few things of the virus we should be able to manage.

Deeper Blue

"Second wave" is a term so overused at this stage that I genuinely think many people don't know what it actually entails, including journalists.

Drumpot

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Health insurance in Ireland doesn't work like that. Life insurance probably will down the line ask the questioning you have ever tested positive for Covid 19.

Life assurance companies already ask it. I’ve had few clients postponed based on COVID.

Also there’s a reasonable chance that our life expectancy will go down and the cost of life assurance will go up. Not just that income protection and serious illness cover will increase aswell. We still don’t know long term effects of COVID and the damage it can do to the body.

NegativeCreep

Eod100 wrote: »

I can understand their frustration to a point but this is a ridiculous suggestion tbf

I think they’re just pointing out the flaw in logic by the government. House parties are causing clusters so keep the pubs closed? Obviously off sales of alcohol in supermarkets contribute more to house parties than whether or not pubs remain closed. Stopping supermarkets selling alcohol is a stupid idea but at least it would have made a bit of sense.

owlbethere

US2 wrote: »

Yes they couldn't attend the racecourse but still had planned heading to galway for them. Pubs and betting go hand in hand. Thats just one of the reasons that might have been considered.

That's ridiculous if people had plans to go to Galway for the Galway races when the races are going ahead behind closed doors. It's probably a good thing now that pubs aren't allowed open because people will take their drunken sessions to Quay Street and pack out Quay Street and Cross Street like sardines in a can.

airy fairy

NegativeCreep wrote: »

I think they’re just pointing out the flaw in logic by the government. House parties are causing clusters so keep the pubs closed? Obviously off sales of alcohol in supermarkets contribute more to house parties than whether or not pubs remain closed. Stopping supermarkets selling alcohol is a stupid idea but at least it would have made a bit of sense.

Pubs being kept closed is not because of house parties.
It's just the incidence of infection and spread has increased. Pubs are a high risk for spread, house parties or not.
It would be negligent of any government to throw the doors of a pub open when rates are rising.

JDD

I'm sure this has been asked already but...

So we were down to five or six new cases a day after the strict lockdown. And now, with restrictions lifting, the number of new cases every day is rising, leading to the R number increasing to above 1.

But...wasn't this expected? Surely NPHET didn't expect that the numbers of new cases every day would continue to fall (to what - eventually zero?) while shops, cafes, travel opened back up again?

The point of the full lockdown was to prevent overwhelming our health system, and to give us breathing space to put in test, track and trace processes, and to give it time to change the population's daily behaviour. And that is exactly what it has done. Now, daily cases will increase (and of course that means the R rate is over 1), but not to a level that overwhelms the health system because we are keeping 2m apart, wearing masks, not using public transport so much, not working in air conned offices so much, not going out to packed pubs,clubs, and concerts. And we have a better test, track and trace system (though it could be still improved).

I expect that the R rate will hover around 1.5 over the next week or two, before falling back down to just over 1, and we may end up with a constant level of 100-200 new cases a day. The percentage of deaths will not be the same as April/May, as a) we have a better system in the nursing homes and b) as painful as it is, a lot of the most vulnerable have died from it already, or have recovered with - hopefully - antibodies.

It's not ideal to have 100-200 cases a day, but without closing our airports and going back to complete lockdown, we're not going to eradicate covid. So I think it is just something we have to accept.

And again, surely none of this is a surprise. Isn't an increase in cases and the R rate going over 1 exactly what they were planning for when reopening the economy?

is_that_so

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It is probably a temporary ripple but I think they are right to pause for a few weeks before going ahead. The numbers have been bouncing around a bit over the past few weeks and it would be good to see them stabilising before we move to the next phase.

I think we are owed much better communications on what government plans are, regardless. It really can't all hinge on what an R0 value is. What will they do if we are at similar levels in another 3 weeks? Keep pushing Phase 5 out?

Minnie Snuggles

The regulation regard houses not having more than 10 visitors at a time could be more to do with what is about to happen with communions and confirmations about to go ahead.

Multipass

JDD wrote: »

I'm sure this has been asked already but...

So we were down to five or six new cases a day after the strict lockdown. And now, with restrictions lifting, the number of new cases every day is rising, leading to the R number increasing to above 1.

But...wasn't this expected? Surely NPHET didn't expect that the numbers of new cases every day would continue to fall (to what - eventually zero?) while shops, cafes, travel opened back up again?

The point of the full lockdown was to prevent overwhelming our health system, and to give us breathing space to put in test, track and trace processes, and to give it time to change the population's daily behaviour. And that is exactly what it has done. Now, daily cases will increase (and of course that means the R rate is over 1), but not to a level that overwhelms the health system because we are keeping 2m apart, wearing masks, not using public transport so much, not working in air conned offices so much, not going out to packed pubs,clubs, and concerts. And we have a better test, track and trace system (though it could be still improved).

I expect that the R rate will hover around 1.5 over the next week or two, before falling back down to just over 1, and we may end up with a constant level of 100-200 new cases a day. The percentage of deaths will not be the same as April/May, as a) we have a better system in the nursing homes and b) as painful as it is, a lot of the most vulnerable have died from it already, or have recovered with - hopefully - antibodies.

It's not ideal to have 100-200 cases a day, but without closing our airports and going back to complete lockdown, we're not going to eradicate covid. So I think it is just something we have to accept.

And again, surely none of this is a surprise. Isn't an increase in cases and the R rate going over 1 exactly what they were planning for when reopening the economy?

There is no plan, our government is in a social media driven panic.

Boggles

Jesus Christ you'd swear there wasn't a drop of the black stuff to be had in the country.

The majority of pubs are open in my area, I could skull pints all weekend if I wanted to.

stephenjmcd

Drumpot wrote: »

Is there a second wave???

The problem as I see it is communication. Why are they doing this and not addressing the foreign travel situation? I don’t think you open pubs just because you aren’t changing your stance on travel but you need to explain your decisions if you want the population to follow.

This isn’t rocket science and it’s one of the few things of the virus we should be able to manage.

Would agree regarding communication, its woeful.

We'll toughen our stance on travel in the coming weeks.... in reality they'll put the form online and nothing changes.

It just leaves more questions than answers

Doctor Jimbob

Boggles wrote: »

Jesus Christ you'd swear there wasn't a drop of the black stuff to be had in the country.

The majority of pubs are open in my area, I could skull pints all weekend if I wanted to.

Indeed.

Which makes all the attempts to paint anyone against the pushing back of reopening as alcoholics look ridiculous, doesn't it?

political analyst

Why has the government still allowed flights from Texas - a Covid hotspot - to land in Ireland?

giveitholly

Boggles wrote: »

Jesus Christ you'd swear there wasn't a drop of the black stuff to be had in the country.

The majority of pubs are open in my area, I could skull pints all weekend if I wanted to.

That is your area though,there is plenty of rural areas where there is no pub open for miles,talking to people yesterday evening and this morning and people are fairly pissed off with the government,they have done everything that has been asked of them since early March,they were looking forward to having a few quiet pints with their neighbours and get a bit of social interaction again with the community but that has been taken away from them now.Of course in big towns and cities there is plenty of choice to have a pint.Who is going to drive 40/50km for that privilege. Yet again it seems like two fingers are been given to the rural community

robbiezero

Hurrache wrote: »

Ha ha, you just couldn't resist, you literally just done what I said would happen with a magnificent failure to understand the comparison. Why are you even quoting "contemplating closing bars"?

Ha Ha indeed.

Montreal opened bars. Had handful of cases related to bars. Dealing with it.

Why does that not apply to Ireland?

marno21

Does the pubs restriction also apply to residents bars for guests staying overnight ?

joeguevara

Shop I normally go in beside office refusing entry to people not wearing a mask, but they will let you in to buy a mask a 4 euro a pop.

Sofa King Great

Last week it was announced that breast and bowel cancer screening would not restart until September. This in my opinion is far more outrageous than the pubs not opening until 10th August