Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

JP Liz V1

I may have heard wrong but is R number now 1.8 with 116 suspected cases, Virgin Media News

hmmm

US2 wrote: »

I think the food thing and time limit is making people get more drunk. Seen plenty friends on social media posting their receipts. Maybe a pizza or chips and wings plus 6 pints, 3 whiskeys, a bottle of wine. All consumed at rapid speed. In and out of the shared toilet every few mins.

Probably giving out about why the other pubs aren't reopening and not realising how their own actions have scared the government into not allowing it.

Until we see it as shameful/anti-social to be posting something like this rather than boasting about it, we have a problem getting pubs open.

stephenjmcd

Boggles wrote: »

Really, where did you get a copy of the guidelines?

Its not rocket science now is it ??

What would have changed except the food ?

You'd still have to sit at your table, no moving around up to the bar, book if required, details for contact tracing.

All common sense isn't it.

They were hardly going to open up without these measures in place no were they

caveat emptor

hmmm wrote: »

Table service, tellies off, time limits - that would work I think, but how would you enforce it? The vitners themselves could do with coming forward with suggestions to how they would police their industry - there's a lot of pubs taking the piss in the current phase, that has to have influenced government opinion. It's the more responsible pubs which are losing out ultimately.

I'd also add. Make it mandatory to open all the windows. I'm sure most wouldn't have a problem with that. Customers would happily wear a jacket if they could get a skinful.

I think pubs haven't really changed in hundreds of years so are most resistant to change.
The smoking ban aside. It's not that different though either. Sitting around breathing in air that could potentially kill you.

AlmightyCushion

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Not even a day in already
https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1283724905842958336?s=19

That was always the case. When the phases get implement and what gets implemented in each phase are conditional. If the virus ends up spreading like wildfire between now and August 10th, did you really think the government would allow the pubs to open because they said that was when they would open?

If the daily new cases stay at roughly the same level as they are now, then I think it is safe to say the pubs will open then.

is_that_so

France getting masked up in indoor places now.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0716/1153590-coronavirus-world/

Boggles

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Its not rocket science now is it ??

What would have changed except the food ?

You'd still have to sit at your table, no moving around up to the bar, book if required, details for contact tracing.

All common sense isn't it.

They were hardly going to open up without these measures in place no were they

So you know for an absolute fact everything would remain the same, including the time limit?

Because the publicans I know had no fúcking idea what was happening.

Also it's fairly farcical to suggest that all pubs not acting like restaurants would adhere to any strict guidance.

Spoiler: They wouldn't.

ACitizenErased

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I may have heard wrong but is R number now 1.8 with 116 suspected cases, Virgin Media News

The 116 cases is ridiculous, the media have no idea what it means. Every single person who enters hospital is a suspected case. There’s 116 in hospital awaiting test results.
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-2000-15-july-2020.pdf

Whitters22

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The 116 cases is ridiculous, the media have no idea what it means. Every single person who enters hospital is a suspected case. There’s 116 in hospital awaiting test results.
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-2000-15-july-2020.pdf

And per a tweet from Gavan Reilly that 116 is just slightly higher than the record low for this statistic. I don't know how VM reported it but a negative headline has been made out of a positive scenario. Same old scaremongering.

SeaBreezes

NegativeCreep wrote: »

So because a place sells food for 9 quid they’re less likely to spread the virus than a place that doesn’t? Makes loads of sense and is definitely a reason to keep thousands of people out of a job and keep them on the Covid payment that we have the pleasure of paying.

Also who said the restrictions would be far more lax? That’s your own conjuring

They are trying to avoid scenes like this:

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1283003807027343360

JP Liz V1

Do food pubs close earlier than 11.30/12.30?

Whitters22

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I may have heard wrong but is R number now 1.8 with 116 suspected cases, Virgin Media News

It also has been discussed ad nauseum here that the R metric isn't the most accurate when the base level of cases is low.

Drumpot

ACitizenErased wrote: »

They’re scared ****-less about the long weekend. That’s the only reason it’s been pushed back.

Maybe , I wonder aswell are they sacrificing pubs to make sure there’s no surge before schools re-open.

Regardless of what people think of the decision, pubs are not ideal environments to try and reduce the spread of the virus. You can’t really regulate house parties but you can regulate pubs.

Asides from that, I think everybody agrees that opening schools in sept in imperative for our economy. Maybe it’s believed that opening up pubs offers less rewards in comparison to the potential risk of a rise in numbers that happen 2-4 weeks after which may spook parents around the time schools are opening.

It’s poor planning for the publicans and as I said poor communication from the authorities. They are treating us like mushrooms and keeping us in the dark. I’m not suggesting a conspiracy, it’s just poorly managed strategy certainly from a communication perspective

Boggles

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Do food pubs close earlier than 11.30/12.30?

No.

From what I have heard some choose to close up 2 hours after last food hours, usually 10 or 11.

Others if you get last orders of the food they will leave you in there until closing.

For people thinking non food serving pubs will operate the exact same way as restaurants, they won't. Because it is not viable.

YFlyer

mloc123 wrote: »

Hope they used common sense and avoided it so...

I must ask him.

Boggles

Drumpot wrote: »

Maybe , I wonder aswell are they sacrificing pubs to make sure there’s no surge before schools re-open.

There is no real reason to wonder, Donnelly came out and said exactly that, this morning as did Harris.

AlmightyCushion

Whitters22 wrote: »

It also has been discussed ad nauseum here that the R metric isn't the most accurate when the base level of cases is low.

That is true but the 7 day moving average has been increasing steadily for the past 3 weeks. 3 weeks ago it was in the single figures, now it is as 20. That shows the virus is spreading more. It might not be a problem and it might stay at that level but it is better to delay the opening of pubs to be sure of that. Because if it is not staying stable at that level, then if the spread is increasing as it is and you throw opening the pubs on top of that it will just exacerbate the issue.

caveat emptor

Drumpot wrote: »

Maybe , I wonder aswell are they sacrificing pubs to make sure there’s no surge before schools re-open.

Regardless of what people think of the decision, pubs are not ideal environments to try and reduce the spread of the virus. You can’t really regulate house parties but you can regulate pubs.

Asides from that, I think everybody agrees that opening schools in sept in imperative for our economy. Maybe it’s believed that opening up pubs offers less rewards in comparison to the potential risk of a rise in numbers that happen 2-4 weeks after which may spook parents around the time schools are opening.

It’s poor planning for the publicans and as I said poor communication from the authorities. They are treating us like mushrooms and keeping us in the dark. I’m not suggesting a conspiracy, it’s just poorly managed strategy certainly from a communication perspective

I'd agree with all of that.
They are triaging the economy.
With school opening so close they aren't risking the pubs as an additional risk to this.

If they really want to help publicans then they should allow them to use open space where possible to serve drinks. Like parks opposite pubs. Even fields etc.
This is a non linear problem and they should really start thinking of solutions with virus in mind. I know weather is ****e here but use marquees like weddings etc with the walls open. It's windy here so open air is much less risky.

Given all the events are postponed, event organisers would benefit too.

They'd really want to be looking at solutions for the next 2 / 3 years.

Duke of Url

stephenjmcd wrote: »

So my €9 chicken wings are stopping the virus ?? Get a grip a portion of €9 food makes no odds if someone's going to get drunk or not.

I agree. They should be all shut again.

Impaired judgement caused by drinking is a recipe for disaster within a pub during a pandemic.

All other industry's seem to have a a creditable process in place based on health and safety for the customers.

I and many others dont see this in the pub industry.

Doctor Jimbob

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

That is true but the 7 day moving average has been increasing steadily for the past 3 weeks. 3 weeks ago it was in the single figures, now it is as 20. That shows the virus is spreading more. It might not be a problem and it might stay at that level but it is better to delay the opening of pubs to be sure of that. Because if it is not staying stable at that level, then if the spread is increasing as it is and you throw opening the pubs on top of that it will just exacerbate the issue.

The virus was always going to spread more as restrictions were relaxed. Opening the pubs is going to cause it to increase more, whether that's on July 20th or August 10. The initial goal of the closures was to increase our testing and ICU capacity. We've done that.

Either we keep things closed indefinitely until there's a vaccine (if that ever occurs) or we reopen and manage surges as they come.

Boggles

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Either we keep things closed indefinitely until there's a vaccine (if that ever occurs) or we reopen and manage surges as they come.

Option C. You do both.

Identify what is high risk and mitigate for wider society and the economy.

That way managing a surge becomes less burdensome.

hotmail.com

This is going to prolong the Covid payments for sure. Thousands in the pub and entertainment industry.

AlmightyCushion

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

The virus was always going to spread more as restrictions were relaxed. Opening the pubs is going to cause it to increase more, whether that's on July 20th or August 10. The initial goal of the closures was to increase our testing and ICU capacity. We've done that.

Either we keep things closed indefinitely until there's a vaccine (if that ever occurs) or we reopen and manage surges as they come.

One goal of the restrictions was to get the virus down to a manageable level. We have done that. We want to stop it getting to an unmanageable level that led to the restrictions in the first place.

Spreading more as we re-open is and was expected. However, it is the rate of increase that is the problem. A small increase that leads to a higher daily case number but a stable,manageable one is not a problem. A larger increase that doesn't stabilise is a problem.

Doctor Jimbob

Boggles wrote: »

Option C. You do both.

Identify what is high risk and mitigate for wider society and the economy.

That way managing a surge becomes less burdensome.

We're clearly not doing that either. If we were, we'd be keeping the restrictions in areas where cases are relatively high and continuing the reopening in areas where cases are low or nonexistant.

A pub reopening in a rural village that hasn't seen cases in months or may not have had a single case isn't high risk.

Eod100

hotmail.com wrote: »

This is going to prolong the Covid payments for sure. Thousands in the pub and entertainment industry.

It will. Could see that going well into Autumn or new year even. People will always have to put food on table, pay rent, mortgages. Only right state pays them. If anything it should be more. State is being paid to borrow currently

NegativeCreep

hmmm wrote: »

Table service, tellies off, time limits - that would work I think, but how would you enforce it? The vitners themselves could do with coming forward with suggestions to how they would police their industry - there's a lot of pubs taking the piss in the current phase, that has to have influenced government opinion. It's the more responsible pubs which are losing out ultimately.

You’d enforce it the same way it’s being enforced now. And I agree vintners need to come up with solutions.

is_that_so

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

One goal of the restrictions was to get the virus down to a manageable level. We have done that. We want to stop it getting to an unmanageable level that led to the restrictions in the first place.

Spreading more as we re-open is and was expected. However, it is the rate of increase that is the problem. A small increase that leads to a higher daily case number but a stable,manageable one is not a problem. A larger increase that doesn't stabilise is a problem.

This does seem predicated on the R0 number only, which is unreliable with very low numbers, as we've been told. At our current levels there doesn't seem to be much indication of a massive rise.

AlmightyCushion

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We're clearly not doing that either. If we were, we'd be keeping the restrictions in areas where cases are relatively high and continuing the reopening in areas where cases are low or nonexistant.

A pub reopening in a rural village that hasn't seen cases in months or may not have had a single case isn't high risk.

If pubs were closed in one area of the country but opened in another, do you not think you would get a load of people travelling from the closed area to the open area to go for pints?

Boggles

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

A pub reopening in a rural village that hasn't seen cases in months or may not have had a single case isn't high risk.

What do you think happens if word gets out there is a pub open 3 villages over?

Also trying to micro manage public houses in a global pandemic is hardly the greatest use of everyone's time.

Doctor Jimbob

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

If pubs were closed in one area of the country but opened in another, do you not think you would get a load of people travelling from the closed area to the open area to go for pints?

We already had travel restrictions earlier in the year. I don't see why these can't be reintroduced on a more localised basis. Other countries are doing that.

Duke of Url

hotmail.com wrote: »

This is going to prolong the Covid payments for sure. Thousands in the pub and entertainment industry.

And this is where Government focus should be.

The Government are right to not give a toss about the noise coming from people wanting to go on the piss.

Focus on the people who are working in the industry and work with the Pub owners and VFI to come up with a credible plan to reopen it.

Its for the pub industry to protect their customers. All I've heard from them and VFI so far is that the Government should them them what to do. I believe they are doing this so they cant be held responsible if a large outbreak occurs.

AlmightyCushion

is_that_so wrote: »

This does seem predicated on the R0 number only, which is unreliable with very low numbers, as we've been told. At our current levels there doesn't seem to be much indication of a massive rise.

It is unreliable at low case numbers but when the 7 day moving average has been steadily increasing for weeks then it indicates that the higher r value is correct.

Doctor Jimbob

Boggles wrote: »

What do you think happens if word gets out there is a pub open 3 villages over?

Also trying to micro manage public houses in a global pandemic is hardly the greatest use of everyone's time.

I'm not sure it would result in the kind of chaos you seem to be implying. I personally wouldn't be arsed travelling that far for a pub.

Boggles

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We already had travel restrictions earlier in the year. I don't see why these can't be reintroduced on a more localised basis. Other countries are doing that.

Seal off the village the pub is open in?

Boggles

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I'm not sure it would result in the kind of chaos you seem to be implying. I personally wouldn't be arsed travelling that far for a pub.

This may come as a shock to you, but the vast majority of people are not you.

Doctor Jimbob

Boggles wrote: »

Seal off the village the pub is open in?

No. Restrict travel out of towns/cities/counties where cases are on the rise.

Boggles

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

No. Restrict travel out of towns/cities/counties where cases are on the rise.

So close off Dublin?

Yeah, I have no problem with that. :pac:

is_that_so

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

It is unreliable at low case numbers but when the 7 day moving average has been steadily increasing for weeks then it indicates that the higher r value is correct.

Fair enough. It's even more reason why they should have made the Phase 4 decision last week. There was really no point waiting an extra week.

Doctor Jimbob

Boggles wrote: »

This may come as a shock to you, but the vast majority of people are not you.

Are you suggesting the vast majority of people would travel a few villages over? If so I think you're significantly overestimating the lure of the pub in modern Ireland. If not I have no idea what your point is.

Boggles

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Are you suggesting the vast majority of people would travel a few villages over? If so I think you're significantly overestimating the lure of the pub in modern Ireland. If not I have no idea what your point is.

You mean the lure of a pub that has been closed for nearly 6 months.

Doctor Jimbob

Boggles wrote: »

So close off Dublin?

Yeah, I have no problem with that. :pac:

Yeah, I'm thinking something like in the Simpsons movie would work.

Joking aside, yeah probably Dublin at the moment but in other areas as well where the need arises. It wouldn't cut the virus out altogether but based on the pandemic so far most people seem willing to listen to public health advice so it would help somewhat.

Maybe I'm being naive though.

AlmightyCushion

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Are you suggesting the vast majority of people would travel a few villages over? If so I think you're significantly overestimating the lure of the pub in modern Ireland. If not I have no idea what your point is.

People broke the previous travel restrictions for all sorts of stupid reasons. I can see plenty doing it to go for pints.

yosemitesam1

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

That is true but the 7 day moving average has been increasing steadily for the past 3 weeks. 3 weeks ago it was in the single figures, now it is as 20. That shows the virus is spreading more. It might not be a problem and it might stay at that level but it is better to delay the opening of pubs to be sure of that. Because if it is not staying stable at that level, then if the spread is increasing as it is and you throw opening the pubs on top of that it will just exacerbate the issue.

Testing has doubled in that timeframe so the numbers don't necessarily represent an increase.
There's a difference between counting clinical diagnosis versus population monitoring. Nphet are treating the numbers as if they are an accurate representation of the population as a whole, this is incorrect.

The way to properly monitor what the disease is doing at a population level would be to monitor a random subset of the population (with or without symptoms) over time. This would show whether covid is increasing or not.
The current testing protocol is open to error (or manipulation) from changes in detection rate or testing numbers.

But there are no field scientists in nphet, all are only used to working in a clinical environment

AlmightyCushion

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Testing has doubled in that timeframe so the numbers don't necessarily represent an increase.
There's a difference between counting clinical diagnosis versus population monitoring. Nphet are treating the numbers as if they are an accurate representation of the population as a whole, this is incorrect.

The way to properly monitor what the disease is doing at a population level would be to monitor a random subset of the population (with or without symptoms) over time. This would show whether covid is increasing or not.
The current testing protocol is open to error (or manipulation) from changes in detection rate or testing numbers.

But there are no field scientists in nphet, all are only used to working in a clinical environment

You are correct that the increase in tests taken could be what resulted in the increased number of cases. However, it would be hard to determine that. Why not just hold off for a couple of weeks to ensure that is the case?

Even if they did do random sampling. If daily case numbers were staying steady of even decreasing but the random sampling was increasing people wanting the pubs to re-open would just dismiss the random sampling numbers because the daily case numbers are decreasing.

NotMOL

I honesty think now is the perfect time for the GOV to make a new bank holiday...we already have the least amount of bank holidays in the EU and now the virus has ruined all our bank holidays since April.

joeguevara

Did Ronan Glynn have any opinion on the pubs not serving food remaining closed?

is_that_so

joeguevara wrote: »

Did Ronan Glynn have any opinion on the pubs not serving food remaining closed?

There'll be a briefing today so that and other questions will no doubt be asked.

political analyst

If the virus was as deadly and as contagious as the authorities say it is then wouldn't there be special bio-hazard bins for the disposal of single-use protective masks? Yet there are no such bins in public places that I know of.

US2

political analyst wrote: »

If the virus was as deadly and as contagious as the authorities say it is then wouldn't there be special bio-hazard bins for the disposal of single-use protective masks? Yet there are no such bins in public places that I know of.

yep if its as dangerous and contagious as they say, hairdressers, cinemas, restaurants etc wouldnt be open. Completely non essential.

ShineOn7

Seen on Reddit Ireland

Hey guys! Micheál Martin here. Hope yis are well. Just wanted to give you some very clear, consistent and transparent advice for phase 4.

Pubs are now closed! But they're also open in a strange way if you just buy a few chicken goujons with your pints or whatever.

Also, whatever you do, do not fcuking travel abroad. With all the yanks coming in as well that could lead to serious issues. Anyway, the green list for countries safe to travel to comes out Monday!

Masks are compulsory now in shops. Well sorry, not 'compulsory' as such but we have highlighted that issue as a priority. A KEY priority!

We need to be vigilant for this phase because cases are sky rocketing lately. I mean this increase isn't reflected in anyway in our figures now to be honest. In fact, the numbers have been consistently low for 3 weeks but we are VERY concerned about this GIGANTIC spike in numbers.

Okay, I'm sure that's cleared things up. Be safe.

MM