Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

BorneTobyWilde

We'll never be New Zealand, a country a mile down the road from Antarctica. I thought the whole goal was 300 cases a week, not every 24 hours. That we needed to get it down to a point that we can cope with it in the hospitals.
But now it seems 30 cases is too many.

political analyst

GooglePlus wrote: »

This is all about money and the scope of it all in the long run, schools and public health come second.

You have to remember that what you're being fed by them through media channels isn't the reality of the situation and conversations discussing true motives are being had behind the scenes.

If it was all about money then those pubs would have still been allowed to re-open on Monday.

B.A._Baracus

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Not at all. Maybe stick to ****posting and quit with the amateur psychology you're not as smart as you think you are.

I see through your style of posting. If you cannot handle being challenged perhaps you should stop posting on the internet.

Boards is a two way street. You've challenged others in this thread, myself being one, if that's ok for you to do then it's ok for others to do the same to you.

is_that_so

Hurrache wrote: »

Well people have been complaining that nothing was said about the potential for the next phase to be rolled out early not actually happening. Now he's said that it may not happen weeks in advance. Can't win really.

He can if there's an actual plan to outline but there just isn't one, unless you mean stuck at Phase 4/5. Now we may get a business plan and a workable school plan which may get schools back but in everything else it looks like it'll be trundling along for another three weeks. That's not planning. Even the HSE have more going on!

is_that_so

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

We'll never be New Zealand, a country a mile down the road from Antarctica. I thought the whole goal was 300 cases a week, not every 24 hours. That we needed to get it down to a point that we can cope with it in the hospitals.
But now it seems 30 cases is too many.

As low as possible is all they'll ever say. It is a good idea to do so but eventually it'll have to compete with a lot of other things in life and we are getting to that point.

Tokyo

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

I see through your style of posting. If you cannot handle being challenged perhaps you should stop posting on the internet.

Boards is a two way street. You've challenged others in this thread, myself being one, if that's ok for you to do then it's ok for others to do the same to you.

Mod: As per my previous mod warning, take 48 hours away from the thread.

Eod100

List out Monday of places you van travel to for essential travel and not self isolate so doesn't look like official advice will change for holidays abroad for a while. That's in theory of course, practice may be very different. https://www.rte.ie/amp/1153727/?__twitter_impression=true

US2

Eod100 wrote: »

List out Monday of places you van travel to for essential travel and not self isolate so doesn't look like official advice will change for holidays abroad for a while. That's in theory of course, practice may be very different. https://www.rte.ie/amp/1153727/?__twitter_impression=true

Ive holiday in 11 days time. Flight still going ahead to Barcelona. I wonder how or if the essential part will be enforced.

Snow Garden

mike_ie wrote: »

Mod: As per my previous mod warning, take 48 hours away from the thread.

I pity the fool

GooglePlus

political analyst wrote: »

If it was all about money then those pubs would have still been allowed to re-open on Monday.

That's where the scope of things comes into play.

The loss of publican business is a small price to pay in their eyes. Much smaller than the price of restricting the movement of people from the US, an economic powerhouse that keeps are little island afloat.

Sawduck

Are face masks mandatory in all shops now, where can I get some, is travelling still OK, I assume it is

yosemitesam1

Boggles wrote: »

I didn't say unknown community transmission, I said transmission in the community, as in outside of healthcare facilities where the majority of the cases have been and where the majority of the recent proactive testing has taken place.




There is certainly health care professional still being infected, but the data is clear, it has now moved out of hospitals and care homes and into the community, where as that wasn't the case not that long ago.

The numbers are small though, so no need for panic, just a bit of caution.

I don't think you can say it's moved out of hospitals into the community.
It's been gotten under control in hospitals and now that we actually have the capacity to test outside of healthcare settings we've seen an increase in community cases because it was impossible for the vast majority of community cases to have been tested before the end of May.
It most likely took a few weeks of testing to start finding community infections and start picking up more related cases. A downward trend in actual infections could still wrongly be detected as an increase

Boggles

Sawduck wrote: »

Are face masks mandatory in all shops now

Not legally mandatory yet, but they have been recommended for some time now.

Sawduck wrote: »

, where can I get some,

Most shops sell surgical ones now.

Sawduck wrote: »

is travelling still OK, I assume it is

What do you mean by travelling?

Boggles

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

I don't think you can say it's moved out of hospitals into the community.
It's been gotten under control in hospitals and now that we actually have the capacity to test outside of healthcare settings we've seen an increase in community cases because it was impossible for the vast majority of community cases to have been tested before the end of May.
It most likely took a few weeks of testing to start finding community infections and start picking up more related cases. A downward trend in actual infections could still wrongly be detected as an increase

There is no data to support a huge increase in testing outside hospital, care settings, etc. The rise in testing was because they went in and did another wave of proactive sweeps. We have plenty of testing capacity in the system.

No one involved with public health has attributed the rise in cases to more testing outside these environments.

It's very simple, instances of the virus outside these settings are on the rise. That is not because of more testing, that is because the country has opened more, people are interacting more and people are travelling more, also people are being less vigilant.

The average daily rate is small, but it is the 14 day trends they look at it. Up 55% from the previous 14 days.

If that is just a blip, it is fine, if it a trend that continues it will need to be reversed.

yosemitesam1

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

You are correct that the increase in tests taken could be what resulted in the increased number of cases. However, it would be hard to determine that. Why not just hold off for a couple of weeks to ensure that is the case?

Even if they did do random sampling. If daily case numbers were staying steady of even decreasing but the random sampling was increasing people wanting the pubs to re-open would just dismiss the random sampling numbers because the daily case numbers are decreasing.

It's very unlikely that daily cases in a random sampling could increase while daily cases staying steady or decreasing, if it did it would most likely be a one day blip and would quickly correct itself.
Covid would be only barely detectable in the population even with a big random random sample size, but the numbers would actually mean something.
Nobody has known what the official numbers have actually meant at any stage throughout the last few months because unlike cancer, heart attacks, strokes, physical trauma etc, it's an awful lot more difficult to judge whether or not someone is part of the statistics when symptoms range from nothing at all to severe pneumonia/death.

is_that_so

The Russians and others playing silly buggers with COVID-19 research.

Russian spies are targeting organisations trying to develop a coronavirus vaccine in the UK, US and Canada, security services have warned. The UK's National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) said the hackers "almost certainly" operated as "part of Russian intelligence services".

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53429506

Eod100

Eod100 wrote: »

List out Monday of places you van travel to for essential travel and not self isolate so doesn't look like official advice will change for holidays abroad for a while. That's in theory of course, practice may be very different. https://www.rte.ie/amp/1153727/?__twitter_impression=true

I like how the last paragraph start with "this clarity...."!!!!!

So the plan is that travel without self isolation (not calling it quarantine as you can go out to the shop and to exercise) to green countries is allowed if the trip is essential. But if not essential, self-isolation is still required, even if from a green country. Well, I think an essential trip at this stage includes seeing family

Well, that clears it up then!

Westernyelp

I went in to to a shop to buy a face mask today. But they told me I couldn't come in unless I had a facemask!

yosemitesam1

Boggles wrote: »

There is no data to support a huge increase in testing outside hospital, care settings, etc. The rise in testing was because they went in and did another wave of proactive sweeps. We have plenty of testing capacity in the system.

No one involved with public health has attributed the rise in cases to more testing outside these environments.

It's very simple, instances of the virus outside these settings are on the rise. That is not because of more testing, that is because the country has opened more, people are interacting more and people are travelling more, also people are being less vigilant.

The average daily rate is small, but it is the 14 day trends they look at it. Up 55% from the previous 14 days.

If that is just a blip, it is fine, if it a trend that continues it will need to be reversed.

There is no data to support any of what you've just posted as far as I know. If you have any data from where the testing has focused over different time periods please link it.
But it was next to impossible for an average person without being classes as an at risk category, who wasn't in frontline services to be tested for a large part of last few months. Unless a person in that position was severely affected chances were that they weren't going to be tested which throws the numbers off when trends are identified from them

Boggles

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

There is no data to support any of what you've just posted as far as I know...
If you have any data from where the testing has focused over different time periods please link it.

The chief executive of Nursing Homes Ireland, Tadhg Daly, has said that he expects Covid-19 testing for nursing home staff on a weekly basis will commence within the next 10 days.

The new measure comes on the back of a recommendation from the European Centre for Disease Control on May 19 for more regular testing of staff in long term residential care, Mr Daly said, speaking on Morning Ireland.

“On June 5, the National Public Health Emergency Team communicated with ourselves and the HSE that they were proposing weekly testing of staff for a four week period. I understand it is due to commence in the next 10 days”

It commenced near the end of June.

Hospitals are full again, you can't get any sort of invasive procedure without a negative test.

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

But it was next to impossible for an average person without being classes as an at risk category, who wasn't in frontline services to be tested for a large part of last few months. Unless a person in that position was severely affected chances were that they weren't going to be tested which throws the numbers off when trends are identified from them

That's just not true, there has been plenty of testing capacity for quite some time, anyone that requested a test got one.

US2

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I like how the last paragraph start with "this clarity...."!!!!!

So the plan is that travel without self isolation (not calling it quarantine as you can go out to the shop and to exercise) to green countries is allowed if the trip is essential. But if not essential, self-isolation is still required, even if from a green country. Well, I think an essential trip at this stage includes seeing family

Well, that clears it up then!

Wow.

So if me and you go to Spain tomorrow, same flight same town, me to visit my mam, you to lay on the beach, when we both come back im free to go about my business but you'd have to isolate for 2 weeks? This virus gets smarter by the day.

US2

US2 wrote: »

Wow.

So if me and you go to Spain tomorrow, same flight same town, me to visit my mam, you to lay on the beach, when we both come back im free to go about my business but you'd have to isolate for 2 weeks? This virus gets smarter by the day.

That’s my understanding of the message. Which has supposedly brought clarity

redmgar

Sawduck wrote: »

Are face masks mandatory in all shops now, where can I get some, is travelling still OK, I assume it is

Dunnes stores

AlmightyCushion

Deleted User wrote: »

That’s my understanding of the message. Which has supposedly brought clarity

I don't know how you got that interpretation. From the article linked:

The requirement to self-isolate for a fortnight after travelling from these countries will be lifted under this new approach that is set to be approved by Cabinet.

You don't need to isolate if you are travelling from a green listed country. No where in the article does it say this is different depending on if the travel is essential or not.

ACitizenErased

LATEST TESTING DATA

Tests conducted last 24hrs: 4316
Tests conducted last 7 days: 49743
Positive tests last 24hrs: 24
Positivity rate last 7 days: 0.3%

US2

ACitizenErased wrote: »

LATEST TESTING DATA

Tests conducted last 24hrs: 4316
Tests conducted last 7 days: 49743
Positive tests last 24hrs: 24
Positivity rate last 7 days: 0.3%

Probably looking at less than 20 new cases again today so, with the majority of those in care homes or hospitals ?

ACitizenErased

US2 wrote: »

Probably looking at less than 20 new cases again today so, with the majority of those in care homes or hospitals ?

Yep based on previous trends should be 20 or less but ya never know nowadays, I don’t see any increase of any sort like the government are talking about tbh

Jackman25

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Yep based on previous trends should be 20 or less but ya never know nowadays, I don’t see any increase of any sort like the government are talking about tbh

Ya, looks like 20 or less. They have no need to bump up that figure today, they got their decision.

yosemitesam1

Boggles wrote: »

It commenced near the end of June.

Hospitals are full again, you can't get any sort of invasive procedure without a negative test.





That's just not true, there has been plenty of testing capacity for quite some time, anyone that requested a test got one.

That's not saying that there hasn't been an increase in testing outside of healthcare settings over the last few weeks and it gives no actual breakdown of where the testing was carried out.
There was 25,000ish tests a week being carried out through April/May/june with a very large amount of this in nursing homes, hospitals etc.
So if the increase to 50,000/week in since the start of July is entirely down to testing nursing home staff that leaves 25,000 for the community/hospitals/nursing home residents.
Nursing home residents are hardly being tested on a regular basis? And most clusters in them have surely burnt themselves out by now.
How is testing being carried out in hospitals now?
There's still definitely the potential for increases in testing of community as far as I can see unless you've more detailed information?


Up until mid to late May it was very hard for the average person with very little to mild symptoms to be tested. That has changed since. But it means very little if anything is known about community transmission in the peak of covid. There seems to be the attitude take the tiny amount of data from then and compare it to now even though things are very different now.

ACitizenErased

Jackman25 wrote: »

Ya, looks like 20 or less. They have no need to bump up that figure today, they got their decision.

I’m not usually cynical about the figures being given but it really didn’t sit well with me that we had some sort of backlog the day before the cabinet meeting to be honest

podgeandrodge

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I’m not usually cynical about the figures being given but it really didn’t sit well with me that we had some sort of backlog the day before the cabinet meeting to be honest

I see Leo tweeted this - are his figures right in terms of cases?

"There’s been an uptick in new Covid cases to 4 per 100k people but we are still the 8th lowest out of 31 countries in Europe. This is not a second wave. We can keep the virus suppressed. To do so we will pause the reopening of pubs and permitting of larger gatherings"

ACitizenErased

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I see Leo tweeted this - are his figures right in terms of cases?

"There’s been an uptick in new Covid cases to 4 per 100k people but we are still the 8th lowest out of 31 countries in Europe. This is not a second wave. We can keep the virus suppressed. To do so we will pause the reopening of pubs and permitting of larger gatherings"

I think we’re at about 3.5 per 100k which is still one of the lowest in europe

DevilsHaircut

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think we’re at about 3.5 per 100k which is still one of the lowest in europe

Leo was closer at 4.0.

It's 4.2.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Boggles

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

That's not saying that there hasn't been an increase in testing outside of healthcare settings over the last few weeks and it gives no actual breakdown of where the testing was carried out.
There was 25,000ish tests a week being carried out through April/May/june with a very large amount of this in nursing homes, hospitals etc.
So if the increase to 50,000/week in since the start of July is entirely down to testing nursing home staff that leaves 25,000 for the community/hospitals/nursing home residents.
Nursing home residents are hardly being tested on a regular basis? And most clusters in them have surely burnt themselves out by now.
How is testing being carried out in hospitals now?
There's still definitely the potential for increases in testing of community as far as I can see unless you've more detailed information?


Up until mid to late May it was very hard for the average person with very little to mild symptoms to be tested. That has changed since. But it means very little if anything is known about community transmission in the peak of covid. There seems to be the attitude take the tiny amount of data from then and compare it to now even though things are very different now.

Jaysus.

There has been no widespread proactive blanket testing in the community, the test criteria has not changed. Anyone who has wanted a test or has been referred for a test has got one and has the got the results back in less 3 days. There is no capacity issues.

I gave you the link, they are testing in care homes and hospital settings every week for 4 weeks, that's where your increase in testing has come from.

No one in public health or NPHET have come out and stated that the increase in instances of the virus is down to more testing.

We will have to leave it there, I doubt I will be able to convince otherwise TBH.

little bess

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Leo was closer at 4.0.

It's 4.2.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

As most of the cases are in Dublin, can anyone give a figure as to what that would be per 100,000 there? Would be more concentrated yes? Sorry I’m not good with numbers!

Boggles

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Leo was closer at 4.0.

It's 4.2.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

It's 3.9 according to the acting Chief medical officer last night.

Up from 2.5 a fortnight ago.

DevilsHaircut

Boggles wrote: »

It's 3.9 according to the acting Chief medical officer last night.

Up from 2.5 a fortnight ago.

The ECDC comparative figures are the ones that will be used for the green list.

4.2 is the figure as of today.

ChikiChiki

That dickhead on virgin media news there on Grafton Street. "Why would I wear a mask when it won't affect me. I'm only 25".

Absolute fool. Don't mind anyone else sure.

ACitizenErased

little bess wrote: »

As most of the cases are in Dublin, can anyone give a figure as to what that would be per 100,000 there? Would be more concentrated yes? Sorry I’m not good with numbers!

Dublin accounts for 60% of cases, I would imagine its quite high

JP Liz V1

Westernyelp wrote: »

I went in to to a shop to buy a face mask today. But they told me I couldn't come in unless I had a facemask!

face covering can be scarf too

JP Liz V1

ChikiChiki wrote: »

That dickhead on virgin media news there on Grafton Street. "Why would I wear a mask when it won't affect me. I'm only 25".

Absolute fool. Don't mind anyone else sure.

A bellend

Boggles

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

The ECDC comparative figures are the ones that will be used for the green list.

4.2 is the figure as of today.

Leo was talking about pubs, the most up to date figure from the guy in charge of the figures is 3.9.

yosemitesam1

Boggles wrote: »

Jaysus.

There has been no widespread proactive blanket testing in the community, the test criteria has not changed. Anyone who has wanted a test or has been referred for a test has got one and has the got the results back in less 3 days. There is no capacity issues.

I gave you the link, they are testing in care homes and hospital settings every week for 4 weeks, that's where your increase in testing has come from.

No one in public health or NPHET have come out and stated that the increase in instances of the virus is down to more testing.

We will have to leave it there, I doubt I will be able to convince otherwise TBH.

You either misunderstood or deliberately went off on a tangent about something else.
The question was has the amount of people tested in the community increased or not as a proportion of total tests. You don't know and I don't know but there is a very real possibility that it has which could give an alternative explanation to the numbers

ACitizenErased

1 new death RIP

21 new cases

JP Liz V1

21 new cases

1 death (RIP)

fritzelly

ACitizenErased wrote: »

1 new death RIP

21 new cases

This second wave is outta control

wadacrack

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1283805965859672068

ACitizenErased

fritzelly wrote: »

This second wave is outta control

Insanity!

JP Liz V1

I miss Tony

fritzelly

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1283805965859672068

Hmmm what is that supposed to mean - possibly not new infections, just ones we're finding thru testing