Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

US2

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It'll be easier to spot in your parents.

Ill be staying at home for 10 days when I return. Cant do the 14.

fritzelly

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Covid 19 coronavirus: Ashley Bloomfield's update - two new cases from Pakistan, Dublin

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12348201

Referring back to the list of positive cases and the list of countries given out for here the other day from places like Pakistan, India etc where the daily numbers are not to be trusted why would any country including Ireland allow them in period

Anyone coming from a country outside Europe (including a few in Europe) should be mandatory quarantine at their own expense. Wouldn't be trusting the numbers at all from any non first world country

Madness letting these people in

nocoverart

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The vaccine is far from a guarantee too I'm afraid

Many of them fail at Phase 3

That poster is obviously having a bad day, no need for that reply... and there's tons of hope with Vaccines i'm afraid

Spanish Eyes

fritzelly wrote: »

Referring back to the list of positive cases and the list of countries given out for here the other day from places like Pakistan, India etc where the daily numbers are not to be trusted why would any country including Ireland allow them in period

Anyone coming from a country outside Europe (including a few in Europe) should be mandatory quarantine at their own expense. Wouldn't be trusting the numbers at all from any non first world country

Madness letting these people in

TBH I would have no problem with paying for mandatory quarantine from my taxes for visitors outside the Green Zones, whatever they are now. Far better value for money than shutting the country down really.

I notice that the Acting CMO is dismissing foreign travel as a vector too. Handy that. Don't upset anyone. But keep us all at home.

US2

Will those posters saying that reinfections are happening take the vaccine? Hardly much point if they believe there's no immunity or a very short immunity.

fritzelly

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

TBH I would have no problem with paying for mandatory quarantine from my taxes for visitors outside the Green Zones, whatever they are now.

Good point!

timsey tiger

US2 wrote: »

Will those posters saying that reinfections are happening take the vaccine? Hardly much point if they believe there's no immunity or a very short immunity.

Even if you don't get long term immunity from having the disease, this does not mean you won't get it from the vaccine or even the other way round. They are not equivalent in terms of immunity.

maebee

US2 wrote: »

Ill be staying at home for 10 days when I return. Cant do the 14.

You will, if you end up in an ICU.

DevilsHaircut

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

TBH I would have no problem with paying for mandatory quarantine from my taxes for visitors outside the Green Zones, whatever they are now. Far better value for money than shutting the country down really.

I notice that the Acting CMO is dismissing foreign travel as a vector too. Handy that. Don't upset anyone. But keep us all at home.

He's really not - it's just the politicians.

He said today that it's not the 'dominant cause', but at 20% of cases last week (both imported and subsequent infections) it's significant.

His letter to Donnelly of 14 July:

'travel related introduction of the disease is now a significant and growing concern in terms of increasing the risk of a potential second wave...it is important that all measures are utilised to discourage and minimise non-essential travel from overseas to Ireland.'

https://www.gov.ie/en/collection/ba4aa0-letters-from-the-cmo-to-the-minister-for-health/

Gruffalux

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3650499

Interesting abstract on possible treatment.
Virus uses lipids to reproduce. Could explain why high blood sugar and high cholesterol dont help. These researchers trialled fenofebrite and found it disregulated viral reproduction.
Personally I have always thought a treatment rather than a vaccine is our best hope. So here's hoping.

ceadaoin.

Gruffalox wrote: »

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3650499

Interesting abstract on possible treatment.
Virus uses lipids to reproduce. Could explain why high blood sugar and high cholesterol dont help. These researchers trialled fenofebrite and found it disregulated viral reproduction.
Personally I have always thought a treatment rather than a vaccine is our best hope. So here's hoping.

Treatments have massively improved, that is evident in the death rates dropping, even in the US with the big surge happening for weeks now. Luckily we don't seem to be having the huge amount of deaths seen in new york, even with similar number of cases in several states. Hopefully things continue to improve and new drug combinations will be discovered. Really makes you appreciate the medical community and how they can deal with this and also be quick to innovate and try new things.

Boggles

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Treatments have massively improved, that is evident in the death rates dropping, even in the US with the big surge happening for weeks now. Luckily we don't seem to be having the huge amount of deaths seen in new york, even with similar number of cases in several states. Hopefully things continue to improve and new drug combinations will be discovered. Really makes you appreciate the medical community and how they can deal with this and also be quick to innovate and try new things.

Death rates are starting to spike again as hospitals run out of capacity.

But treatments are definitely evolving.

I was watching a piece on a Texan hospital the other night, they have a no ventilator policy.

Instead they basically pump all the blood out of a patient and oxygenate it externally and pump it back into them.

Fascinating stuff.

shinzon

US2 wrote: »

I'm due to go on the 27th to Barcelona. Unless my flights cancelled im going. I'd rather get covid than lose out on 1200 euros.

If I do get it, chances are I wont even know I have it

Words fail me tbh I mean Jesus H Christ

Shin

Renjit

Australia cases are still increasing. Did they completely drop the ball? For almost 2 months there were no significant cases.

AllGunsBlazing

Renjit wrote: »

Australia cases are still increasing. Did they completely drop the ball? For almost 2 months there were no significant cases.

I'm beginning to wonder if increased testing is only now revealing the true extent of the outbreak. Could it be they had hidden clusters all along?

wadacrack

AllGunsBlazing wrote: »

I'm beginning to wonder if increased testing is only now revealing the true extent of the outbreak. Could it be they had hidden clusters all along?

It grows exponentially, takes a few days for symptoms to be displayed in some cases

ShineOn7

Boggles wrote: »

Death rates are starting to spike again as hospitals run out of capacity.

But treatments are definitely evolving.

I was watching a piece on a Texan hospital the other night, they have a no ventilator policy.

Instead they basically pump all the blood out of a patient and oxygenate it externally and pump it back into them.

Fascinating stuff.

I'd say that hospital comes with a 6 figure stay, given it's America and that it sounds complicated

Hopefully it filters into public hospitals worldwide though as ventilators do so much damage to people, even when they survive

Vietnam kept the famous British pilot on an ECMO machine (the external oxygenation) for nearly two months and eventually saved his life after being in a coma for two months. He was the talk of the entire country with people offering to donate a lung etc. He's gone home now.

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/british-pilot-declared-fully-recovered-4126661.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/jul/12/british-pilot-discharged-from-vietnam-hospital-after-four-month-battle-with-covid-19-video

Boggles

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'd say that hospital comes with a 6 figure stay, given it's America and that it sounds complicated

Hopefully it filters into public hospitals worldwide though as ventilators do so much damage to people, even when they survive

Not for profit apparently, core hospital was acquired because of the Spanish Flu.

As for complicated, I imagine it is, you wouldn't think so the way the doctor described it though, takes shorter than ventilation (a few minutes) and basically involves sticking a garden house up the groin into the heart, take out the dirty blood pump back in nice red blood.

His words.

ShineOn7

Boggles wrote: »

His words

That's very positive then

I'm just taking for granted that, in the global digital times we live in, that the Medical community are all sharing information to help each other

Highly effective treatments will be the answer to this. The vaccine is the biggest carrot on a stick the world will ever see

timsey tiger

US2 wrote: »

I'm due to go on the 27th to Barcelona. Unless my flights cancelled im going. I'd rather get covid than lose out on 1200 euros.

US2 you are suffering from what is known as the sunk cost fallacy. Your €1,200 is gone and should now have no bearing on your future decision to go or not go.What you must now do is ask yourself, if I go now will it make me happier than if I don't go, either way the €1,200 is gone.

owlbethere

Do you know what would be a fantastic idea. If hotels and restaurants had a menu to view and download from online and instead of being given a physical menu, you read the menu from your phone. Just to reduce hands and transferring etc. Maybe establishments can encourage customers to download their menu at the door. I know many places already have menus online. Or another option would be to display the menu at the door and you could scan it onto your phone or take a picture. Definitely going forward I will be using my phone to take pictures of menus and using that instead of physical copies of menus.

Akabusi

I've been in two restaurants where you pick up the menu on an A4 sheet when you enter. It is better than the the old way of being handed a menu but as has been said in this day and age we should be either scanning them into our phones or downloading them.

Eod100

No surprises there. Looking like US and UK won't be on green list. https://twitter.com/RedFMNews/status/1284050497436037130?s=19

Eod100

Eod100 wrote: »

No surprises there. Looking like US and UK won't be on green list. https://twitter.com/RedFMNews/status/1284050497436037130?s=19

It’s only about the self isolation requirement though, right? Not actual travel restrictions

hmmm

Deleted User wrote: »

It'll be easier to spot in your parents.

If I could like this a million times I would.

ShineOn7

Eod100 wrote: »

No surprises there. Looking like US and UK won't be on green list. https://twitter.com/RedFMNews/status/1284050497436037130?s=19

I've just read this. I wasn't 100% sure what the Green List was about as there's only so much Covid reading you can do

This bit though

The list of countries that Irish citizens can travel to without quarantine rules is set to be revealed on Monday.

That's it?!

That's all the Green List is?

It's not a list we're not allowing into the country?

The quarantine "rules" will not be followed by the vast majority. Simply because the government won't enforce them. Singapore made all people coming into the country go to hotels that had their security to make sure the quarantine rules were followed. Will that happen here?

Will it fcuk

After some (relatively) stress free weeks about this my worry is starting to creep up again because of how we're handling the travel side of this in this country. It's a clown show

I think we're in serious trouble from mid August/early September unless our people in power grow a back bone and some fcuking cop on

FishOnABike

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Just heard on the news that Ireland's R0 is now at 1.8!

Now I know that with low numbers the R0 is less accurate, but isn't anything above 2 very dangerous?

Anything above 1 is bad. I think in yesterday's press conference Prof. Philip Nolan explained very well where we are at the moment, where we could be going and why we have to be cautious right now to ensure we continue to contain things at manageable numbers.

Angela Merkel put it very clearly back in mid April when she stated that a Rt of 1.1 would see Germany's health system maxed out by October but an Rt of 1.3 would have it maxed out by June.

https://qz.com/1839030/angela-merkel-explains-how-coronavirus-transmission-works/

Anything above 1 and the number of daily new cases continues to increase. To contain the infection rate we need to keep the average Rt at 1.0. If the long term average is less than 1.0 the rate of infection will decline, if it is above 1 the rate of infection will continue to grow at an increasing rate.

ixoy

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The quarantine "rules" will not be followed by the vast majority. Simply because the government won't enforce them. Singapore made all people coming into the country go to hotels that had their security to make sure the quarantine rules were followed. Will that happen here?

Singapore is a bit of an extreme example though. Is it being followed up/enforced in other-EU countries is more relevant.

US2

hmmm wrote: »

If I could like this a million times I would.

I wont be seeing my parents, I'll be isolating at home after I get back. Dont see yer issue atall

stephenjmcd

FishOnABike wrote: »

Anything above 1 is bad. I think in yesterday's press conference Prof. Philip Nolan explained very well where we are at the moment, where we could be going and why we have to be cautious right now to ensure we continue to contain things at manageable numbers.

Angela Merkel put it very clearly back in mid April when she stated that a Rt of 1.1 would see Germany's health system maxed out by October but an Rt of 1.3 would have it maxed out by June.

https://qz.com/1839030/angela-merkel-explains-how-coronavirus-transmission-works/

Anything above 1 and the number of daily new cases continues to increase. To contain the infection rate we need to keep the average Rt at 1.0. If the long term average is less than 1.0 the rate of infection will decline, if it is above 1 the rate of infection will continue to grow at an increasing rate.

Except you completely miss the concept of when having a low data set and you put a cluster into said data set R is impacted to an extent that doesn't give you the actual national picture. Current R here rocketed when 2 large clusters in Kerry and Siigo were added in. Should we remain at 20 cases a day for example those clusters will flush through after the 7 and 14 day R average has passed and therefore R then comes well back under 1. In both Kerry and Sligo 1 passed it on to 15. Theres your R increase there.

You also use Germany as an example, when they added in a meat plant cluster the rolling 4 day R value jumped to 2.88, guess what it was back under 1 two weeks later once that cluster had worked its way through the data. Did the German's suddenly start to worry and panic by stopping the relaxation of measures ? Nope they didn't because they knew the effect of the cluster on inflating R.

Switzerland also reproted R above 1 when reporting 10 cases per day.

Much like us and other countries lower the cases, put a higher number in suddenly it jumps. Its basic stuff.

Seems as if they roll out R whenever it suits and its jumped on if over 1 even when its not an accurate measure of the national picture.

Prof Nolan explained this every week including last week, the cynic in me thinks they got the number they wanted and knew people would see over 1 and think oh that's very bad and give people a kick up the arse, given as most people wouldn't understand how data modeling actually works

Seamai

owlbethere wrote: »

Do you know what would be a fantastic idea. If hotels and restaurants had a menu to view and download from online and instead of being given a physical menu, you read the menu from your phone. Just to reduce hands and transferring etc. Maybe establishments can encourage customers to download their menu at the door. I know many places already have menus online. Or another option would be to display the menu at the door and you could scan it onto your phone or take a picture. Definitely going forward I will be using my phone to take pictures of menus and using that instead of physical copies of menus.

Was in a place in Kinsale for a coffee last week where you had the option of scanning a QR code on the table for the menu, great idea.

Boggles

I imagine the R0 value of people claiming they are going on holidays compared with people actually going on holidays is quite artificially inflated as well.

Azatadine

UK may have been overstating deaths FROM Covid.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-health-secretary-matt-hancock-orders-urgent-review-into-public-health-england-death-data-12030392

Boggles

Azatadine wrote: »

UK may have been overstating deaths FROM Covid.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-health-secretary-matt-hancock-orders-urgent-review-into-public-health-england-death-data-12030392

Like fúck they have.

stephenjmcd

Boggles wrote: »

I imagine the R0 value of people claiming they are going on holidays compared with people actually going on holidays is quite artificially inflated as well.

Especially when they find out they won't be paid for 2 weeks when they come back

Azatadine

Boggles wrote: »

Like fúck they have.

I agree but just posted it as an FYI.

stephenjmcd

Azatadine wrote: »

UK may have been overstating deaths FROM Covid.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-health-secretary-matt-hancock-orders-urgent-review-into-public-health-england-death-data-12030392

overstating ?? Not a hope, understating 100%

Seamai

Eod100 wrote: »

No surprises there. Looking like US and UK won't be on green list. https://twitter.com/RedFMNews/status/1284050497436037130?s=19

So we can't go there (not that I really want to) but they're free to come here? Should cut both ways and be enforced rigorously.

Seamai

Seamai wrote: »

So we can't go there (not that I really want to) but they're free to come here? Should cut both ways and be enforced rigorously.

You can go there. That’s not what the green list means. It just means that you have to self isolate when coming back

caveat emptor

It seems people are happy with the data when it's going down.
When it's ticking up it can be explained away with conspiracy theories that the government is trying to mind control you.
It must be inaccurate for various statistical and data analytical issues that we can't possibly comprehend.

wadacrack

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Except you completely miss the concept of when having a low data set and you put a cluster into said data set R is impacted to an extent that doesn't give you the actual national picture. Current R here rocketed when 2 large clusters in Kerry and Siigo were added in. Should we remain at 20 cases a day for example those clusters will flush through after the 7 and 14 day R average has passed and therefore R then comes well back under 1. In both Kerry and Sligo 1 passed it on to 15. Theres your R increase there.

You also use Germany as an example, when they added in a meat plant cluster the rolling 4 day R value jumped to 2.88, guess what it was back under 1 two weeks later once that cluster had worked its way through the data. Did the German's suddenly start to worry and panic by stopping the relaxation of measures ? Nope they didn't because they knew the effect of the cluster on inflating R.

Switzerland also reproted R above 1 when reporting 10 cases per day.

Much like us and other countries lower the cases, put a higher number in suddenly it jumps. Its basic stuff.

Seems as if they roll out R whenever it suits and its jumped on if over 1 even when its not an accurate measure of the national picture.

Prof Nolan explained this every week including last week, the cynic in me thinks they got the number they wanted and knew people would see over 1 and think oh that's very bad and give people a kick up the arse, given as most people wouldn't understand how data modeling actually works

The problem is that its due to just one or two clusters. Their are cases through out the country. GAA Clubs now in Carlow, Derry, Dublin and Cork have all had to suspend activity. Health authorities were not as worried when it was mainly due to meat factories. Their has been only 4 or 5 counties who have went over 2 weeks without a confirmed case.

Seamai

Azatadine wrote: »

UK may have been overstating deaths FROM Covid.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-health-secretary-matt-hancock-orders-urgent-review-into-public-health-england-death-data-12030392

There have been articles in the UK media daily for the last 3 and a half months claiming that the figures are UNDERSTATED by between 25% and 35%. Many are putting the actual figure at well over 60,000 as opposed the official figure of 45,000.

ACitizenErased

wadacrack wrote: »

The problem is that its due to just one or two clusters. Their are cases through out the country. GAA Clubs now in Carlow, Derry, Dublin and Cork have all had to suspend activity. Health authorities were not as worried when it was mainly due to meat factories. Their has been only 4 or 5 counties who have went over 2 weeks without a confirmed case.

The GAA clubs have resumed activity because they test negative.

Gruffalux

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Except you completely miss the concept of when having a low data set and you put a cluster into said data set R is impacted to an extent that doesn't give you the actual national picture. Current R here rocketed when 2 large clusters in Kerry and Siigo were added in. Should we remain at 20 cases a day for example those clusters will flush through after the 7 and 14 day R average has passed and therefore R then comes well back under 1. In both Kerry and Sligo 1 passed it on to 15. Theres your R increase there.

You also use Germany as an example, when they added in a meat plant cluster the rolling 4 day R value jumped to 2.88, guess what it was back under 1 two weeks later once that cluster had worked its way through the data. Did the German's suddenly start to worry and panic by stopping the relaxation of measures ? Nope they didn't because they knew the effect of the cluster on inflating R.

Switzerland also reproted R above 1 when reporting 10 cases per day.

Much like us and other countries lower the cases, put a higher number in suddenly it jumps. Its basic stuff.

Seems as if they roll out R whenever it suits and its jumped on if over 1 even when its not an accurate measure of the national picture.

Prof Nolan explained this every week including last week, the cynic in me thinks they got the number they wanted and knew people would see over 1 and think oh that's very bad and give people a kick up the arse, given as most people wouldn't understand how data modeling actually works

I agree with your R number explanation.
What I cannot envision is an anonymous bunch called "they" who 'roll out' Rs that suit them or who get the numbers 'they wanted' so as to give people a kick up the arse. I spent a good few years amusing myself in conspiracy communities online and if there is one thing that those people love to reference it is the amorphous unknowable 'they". They who scheme and plot etc. I really do not believe this they exists in our govt or health authorities. I think they are genuinely trying to manage this pandemic in an Irish situation. They are making some mistakes. For sure. The travel from USA for example. But they are not plotting or rolling out manipulative stats.
This crisis has brought out many peoples inner conspiracy theorist I have found, for example the silly reactivity to masks as if it is a population control measure. It is a disease control measure. Just in general there is a cohort who seem to suddenly imagine the state is agin us, the poor trapped people. I really do not see this. I see people who have decisions to make being cautious as it is their rather onerous job to protect public health.

PS conspiracies exist just not in this case

Seamai

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You can go there. That’s not what the green list means. It just means that you have to self isolate when coming back

Ok but your average American coming here on a 9 day holiday is unlikely to be self isolating when they come here.
Are EU citizens still not banned from the US?

FishOnABike

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I like how the last paragraph start with "this clarity...."!!!!!

So the plan is that travel without self isolation (not calling it quarantine as you can go out to the shop and to exercise) to green countries is allowed if the trip is essential. But if not essential, self-isolation is still required, even if from a green country. Well, I think an essential trip at this stage includes seeing family

Well, that clears it up then!

It looks like the article https://www.rte.ie/amp/1153727/?__twitter_impression=true was edited (16:57 Thursday 16-07-2020) to clarify.

The purpose of the travel is not relevant to the requirement to restrict movement on return. Whim, holiday, essential travel it's all the same.

Quote ”The advice will be that travel to these countries will be possible without the requirement to self-isolate for a fortnight after returning home.

However, those travelling will be advised to exercise caution."

The advice to avoid non-essential international travel is unchanged.

ACitizenErased

Not sure if anyone posted this yet

HSE Daily Operations Update
13 in hospitals, no change.
3 admissions/confirmed cases in hospitals yesterday, 2 in the mater and 1 in Kilkenny.
8 in ICU, no change.
4 ventilations, decrease of 1.

Must say we have a remarkable ICU survival rate, don’t think anyone has died there for a number of weeks.

caveat emptor

Interesting that Johnson is advising "prepare for the worse, hope for the best" regards winter.
A life threatening illness will do that to you.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jul/17/uk-coronavirus-live-boris-johnson-3bn-plan-nhs-battle-ready-for-winter-second-wave

US2

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Not sure if anyone posted this yet

HSE Daily Operations Update
13 in hospitals, no change.
3 admissions/confirmed cases in hospitals yesterday, 2 in the mater and 1 in Kilkenny.
8 in ICU, no change.
4 ventilations, decrease of 1.

Must say we have a remarkable ICU survival rate, don’t think anyone has died there for a number of weeks.

Do you have any stats on the ages of people admitted to icu and the age of survivors?