Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

yosemitesam1

hmmm wrote: »

We'll need a big push for people to get the Flu vaccine this year. I'm surprised more isn't being said about that.

Getting the flu would lead most people to have an increased non specific immunity against respiratory infections for a period after. Since the flu comes earlier, if the general non risk population had a lower vaccination rate, it could help suppress covid further.
Not saying old or other at risk groups shouldn't get it

schmoo2k

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Alternative headline: "Gob****e advertises in advance he'll break the law"



https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/enough-is-enough-publican-vows-to-open-on-monday-despite-government-advice-39374808.html

If he does I wouldn't be too surprised if the Guards continue with their policy of common sense and ignore it IF there is indeed appropriate social distancing and mask wearing.

Professor Moriarty

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Alternative headline: "Gob****e advertises in advance he'll break the law"



https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/enough-is-enough-publican-vows-to-open-on-monday-despite-government-advice-39374808.html

I wish him well when it comes to renewing his licence.

Professor Moriarty

schmoo2k wrote: »

If he does I wouldn't be too surprised if the Guards continue with their policy of common sense and ignore it IF there is indeed appropriate social distancing and mask wearing.

They can't ignore it. It will be the most monitored pub in Ireland.

pjohnson

Hopefully Mr. Whelan wont avail of any government support packages in the near future.

Professor Moriarty

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Getting the flu would lead most people to have an increased non specific immunity against respiratory infections for a period after. Since the flu comes earlier, if the general non risk population had a lower vaccination rate, it could help suppress covid further.
Not saying old or other at risk groups shouldn't get it

Everyone should get it. You don't want the flu and Covid-19 at the same time no matter who you are.

niallo27

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I wish him well when it comes to renewing his licence.

He will probably shut down anyway if he doesn't open so what has he to lose.

caveat emptor

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Everyone should get it. You don't want the flu and Covid-19 at the same time no matter who you are.

aka double bubble **** storm.

ShineOn7

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I wish him well when it comes to renewing his license.

This is where loads of Publicans who aren't following the rules will lose out big time

If you own a pub and the Gardai at your local station take a dislike to you, you are royally screwed when it comes to renewing your license

Ficheall

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Getting the flu would lead most people to have an increased non specific immunity against respiratory infections for a period after. Since the flu comes earlier, if the general non risk population had a lower vaccination rate, it could help suppress covid further.
Not saying old or other at risk groups shouldn't get it

I'm not sure I follow your logic here...

gipi

The weekly HSPC report on healthcare worker figures.

For week ending 11 July, healthcare workers accounted for over 30% of the total positive cases.

Eod100

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It’s only about the self isolation requirement though, right? Not actual travel restrictions

Yeah and non essential travel will still be advised against

faceman

ZX7R wrote: »

His trip is a matter of national importance.
If you're trip is of the equivalent needs.
Then no but would your business trip be of national importance

The virus doesn’t discriminate. That’s a message we’re being told to warn young people not to party

Politicians aren’t immune and the Taoiseach is most certainly not exempt.

If his trip is considered low risk, then that’s an acknowledgment that others who travel on business are low risk too depending on the circumstances

This can be spun any way you wish. But no matter what say Michéal Martin is just as much a risk to the healthy of the Irish nation as anyone else who travels and if quarantine is the rule, then quarantine must apply

There was a previous EU meeting that had to be cancelled as the Croatian representative discovered he was exposed to C19.

ACitizenErased

gipi wrote: »

The weekly HSPC report on healthcare worker figures.

For week ending 11 July, healthcare workers accounted for over 30% of the total positive cases.

Big increase in infected healthcare workers last week. 43 last week vs 25 the week before and 11 the week before that

yosemitesam1

Ficheall wrote: »

I'm not sure I follow your logic here...

You get the flu vaccine you're less likely to suffer from the flu but more likely to suffer from a non flu respiratory infection.
You get the actual flu and your immune response makes you less likely to suffer from other non flu respiratory infections for the rest of the winter

Professor Moriarty

niallo27 wrote: »

He will probably shut down anyway if he doesn't open so what has he to lose.

Last sting of a dying wasp. It's awful for publicans but he's being grossly irresponsible for a variety of reasons.

spookwoman

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

You get the flu vaccine you're less likely to suffer from the flu but more likely to suffer from a non flu respiratory infection.
You get the actual flu and your immune response makes you less likely to suffer from other non flu respiratory infections for the rest of the winter

eh?? where are you getting this information from

FishOnABike

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Except you completely miss the concept of when having a low data set and you put a cluster into said data set R is impacted to an extent that doesn't give you the actual national picture. Current R here rocketed when 2 large clusters in Kerry and Siigo were added in. Should we remain at 20 cases a day for example those clusters will flush through after the 7 and 14 day R average has passed and therefore R then comes well back under 1. In both Kerry and Sligo 1 passed it on to 15. Theres your R increase there.

You also use Germany as an example, when they added in a meat plant cluster the rolling 4 day R value jumped to 2.88, guess what it was back under 1 two weeks later once that cluster had worked its way through the data. Did the German's suddenly start to worry and panic by stopping the relaxation of measures ? Nope they didn't because they knew the effect of the cluster on inflating R.

Switzerland also reproted R above 1 when reporting 10 cases per day.

Much like us and other countries lower the cases, put a higher number in suddenly it jumps. Its basic stuff.

Seems as if they roll out R whenever it suits and its jumped on if over 1 even when its not an accurate measure of the national picture.

Prof Nolan explained this every week including last week, the cynic in me thinks they got the number they wanted and knew people would see over 1 and think oh that's very bad and give people a kick up the arse, given as most people wouldn't understand how data modeling actually works

I think in yesterday's briefing Prof. Nolan was pretty open about the possible range of Rt, the values and range of values different models gave and their implications for potential new case numbers a few weeks from now, varying from slightly higher than now but still manageable to over 160 new cases per day.

If we are at a steady 15 cases per day a cluster of 15 would only increase the 7 day average to just over 17 and the ripple could be seen working it's way through the figures until we get back to the steady 15 cases per day again.

The problem is when we have another medium to large cluster, or a number of smaller clusters before the previous ones have worked their way through (the maths or our hospitals) we then have an increasing problem.

It's too early to be sure if those recent clusters are one off isolated incidents or whether they are part of an emerging pattern.

The trajectories of the different graphs in yesterday's briefing illustrated why it is important to take action now and pause the relaxation of restrictions until it is established how well we currently have things under control and then respond appropriately.

Rob A. Bank

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Alternative headline: "Gobshíte advertises in advance he'll break the law"

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/enough-is-enough-publican-vows-to-open-on-monday-despite-government-advice-39374808.html

Dr Fauci put it very well in a recent interview about the pandemic "If you are not part of the solution, you're part of the problem".

This publican is clearly the latter.

ShineOn7

Covid-19: Ireland could see 150 cases a day within weeks as HSE warns on hospital capacity

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-ireland-could-see-150-cases-a-day-within-weeks-as-hse-warns-on-hospital-capacity-1.4306511

The country is in a “position of high uncertainty at the moment” as the R-number, or the reproductive rate of the virus, has increased above 1 to potentially as high as 1.8, acting Chief Medical Officer Dr Ronan Glynn has warned.
Dr Ronan Glynn, acting chief medical officer at the Department of Health, said such a scenario would have a “very, very negative impact on the plans to get our children back to school”.

Prof Philip Nolan, chair of Nphet’s modelling group, said the R-number, that is the average number of people an infected person passes the virus onto, had likely risen to 1.4, but could be as high as 1.8.

High uncertainty

If the reproductive number was at the higher rate, the country could see 150 or 160 cases a day in three weeks’ time. “We are in a position of high uncertainty at the moment,” he said.
Speaking at the Nphet briefing on Thursday, Dr Glynn said it would have been “foolhardy” to move to phase four of easing restrictions, and reopen pubs that do not serve food on Monday.
The next two weeks would be crucial in reducing spread of the virus, and the country was in a “precarious position”, he said.

bodhrandude

What's this talk of maybe going back to phase 2, what is that one again, is that the 20 km rule where you can just travel within your county boundary?

schmoo2k

faceman wrote: »

The virus doesn’t discriminate. That’s a message we’re being told to warn young people not to party

Politicians aren’t immune and the Taoiseach is most certainly not exempt.

If his trip is considered low risk, then that’s an acknowledgment that others who travel on business are low risk too depending on the circumstances

This can be spun any way you wish. But no matter what say Michéal Martin is just as much a risk to the healthy of the Irish nation as anyone else who travels and if quarantine is the rule, then quarantine must apply

There was a previous EU meeting that had to be cancelled as the Croatian representative discovered he was exposed to C19.

He will get special treatment with tests on Day 1 + 7 and quick results, so won't need be isolated for the full two weeks - ends up being 4/5 workdays.

(I am assuming he won't be foolish enough to not self isolate - the media will have too much fun with it)

robfowler78

bodhrandude wrote: »

What's this talk of maybe going back to phase 2, what is that one again, is that the 20 km rule where you can just travel within your county boundary?

And England are talking of been fully open by Christmas and sports fan been back by October... Don't get me wrong it's a basket case of confusing information over there but at least there is hope lol.

marno21

robfowler78 wrote: »

And England are talking of been fully open by Christmas and sports fan been back by October... Don't get me wrong it's a basket case of confusing information over there but at least there is hope lol.

England are also hoping to begin rolling out a vaccine by then too mind.

US2

Fans allowed at the world snooker championship which takes place next month in Sheffield.

timsey tiger

niallo27 wrote: »

He will probably shut down anyway if he doesn't open so what has he to lose.

The country would be well rid. Nobody with that level of civic responsibility should hold any licence above a TV one.

robfowler78

marno21 wrote: »

England are also hoping to begin rolling out a vaccine by then too mind.

I think it's more likely that some countries have done what they set out to do in the beginning. They locked down to flatten the curve and protect the health services. They now are progressing with trying to live with the virus. If a vaccine comes great but if not they will continue to lockdown clusters etc.

We seem to be trying to keep locked down as long as possible. I just hope we have done enough prep work to get the health service up to scratch to live with the virus until or if a vacine comes along. We can't keep kids from school and let business go to the wall.

ZX7R

faceman wrote: »

The virus doesn’t discriminate. That’s a message we’re being told to warn young people not to party

Politicians aren’t immune and the Taoiseach is most certainly not exempt.

If his trip is considered low risk, then that’s an acknowledgment that others who travel on business are low risk too depending on the circumstances

This can be spun any way you wish. But no matter what say Michéal Martin is just as much a risk to the healthy of the Irish nation as anyone else who travels and if quarantine is the rule, then quarantine must apply

There was a previous EU meeting that had to be cancelled as the Croatian representative discovered he was exposed to C19.

Everyone is at risk I never said anyone wasn't maybe you should have quoted my original post in relation to the matter.
The security in relation to this meeting is totally different than pervious EU commission meetings.
The risk for Micheal Martin is considerably less than your avarge traveler

timsey tiger

ShineOn7 wrote: »

This is where loads of Publicans who aren't following the rules will lose out big time

If you own a pub and the Gardai at your local station take a dislike to you, you are royally screwed when it comes to renewing your license

That's the theory, but this is Ireland. We don't do consequences.

ACitizenErased

Not sure what to think about this? I swear this fella is a social media star

https://twitter.com/drzerocraic/status/1284103814568607745?s=21

Boggles

Them all happening at 0.00 O'Clock is worrying all right.

wadacrack

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Not sure what to think about this? I swear this fella is a social media star

https://twitter.com/drzerocraic/status/1284103814568607745?s=21

He works as a GP, obviously much more difficult for him than the majority of us on this forum. To me he is just trying to put word out, not trying to be a star at all.

ACitizenErased

US2 wrote: »

The government has put fear in people again , every hypochondriac will be looking for a test now.

I don’t see why he feels the need to tweet that people are getting tested, if anything I think that’s good tbh considering they said a lot weren’t

US2

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I don’t see why he feels the need to tweet that people are getting tested, if anything I think that’s good tbh considering they said a lot weren’t

On closer look I dont believe him atall.

yosemitesam1

spookwoman wrote: »

eh?? where are you getting this information from

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/52/27142

Different respiratory diseases can't be viewed in a vacuum when considering their effects and spread at population.

RebelButtMunch

Akabusi wrote: »

I've been in two restaurants where you pick up the menu on an A4 sheet when you enter. It is better than the the old way of being handed a menu but as has been said in this day and age we should be either scanning them into our phones or downloading them.

Nice. Fade St has QR codes on the table that you can scan with your phone for menus.

Westernyelp

US2 wrote:

First of all, I dont see why he HAS to be there in person unless he is physically handing them something? If hes tested on return he should still have to isolate at least until the result of his second test 7 days later are back. The hypocrisy on this thread is unbelievable.

You don't HAVE to go on Holidays either. The cognitive dissonance is astounding in some people

US2

Westernyelp wrote: »

You don't HAVE to go on Holidays either. The cognitive dissonance is astounding in some people

Never said i have to go, but I HAVE to isolate on my return. The virus doesn't know if I'm a minister on business or a slob on holidays

ACitizenErased

US2 wrote: »

Never said i have to go, but I HAVE to isolate on my return. The virus doesn't know if I'm a minister on business or a slob on holidays

Youre not getting tested when you return, he is, big big big big difference

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Not sure what to think about this? I swear this fella is a social media star

https://twitter.com/drzerocraic/status/1284103814568607745?s=21

He's constantly on virgin media, after Dame Lane he was proclaiming the second wave was beginning.

A month ago he said he was sending on 5 a day for tests and it was worrying , a week or so ago he was still sending 5 a day and it was worrying. Guess what no massive increase at all.

Now from looking at that tweet, requests for testing. Are people beginning to ring up looking for a test ? The same as what we saw in March when testing was a free for all anyone with the sniffles got one.

With the current postivity rate let them get tested, more the better.

Wonder if he'll say how many he refers that are actually postive

ACitizenErased

stephenjmcd wrote: »

He's constantly on virgin media, after Dame Lane he was proclaiming the second wave was beginning.

A month ago he said he was sending on 5 a day for tests and it was worrying , a week or so ago he was still sending 5 a day and it was worrying. Guess what no massive increase at all.

Now from looking at that tweet, requests for testing. Are people beginning to ring up looking for a test ? The same as what we saw in March when testing was a free for all anyone with the sniffles got one.

With the current postivity rate let them get tested, more the better

I thought it was that fella alright, surely the more asking for tests is better like

US2

stephenjmcd wrote: »

He's constantly on virgin media, after Dame Lane he was proclaiming the second wave was beginning.

A month ago he said he was sending on 5 a day for tests and it was worrying , a week or so ago he was still sending 5 a day and it was worrying. Guess what no massive increase at all.

Now from looking at that tweet, requests for testing. Are people beginning to ring up looking for a test ? The same as what we saw in March when testing was a free for all anyone with the sniffles got one.

With the current postivity rate let them get tested, more the better

Anyone with a sniffle was referred for one in March, waited weeks then were told they couldn't get tested. Anyway that twitter doc is just an alarmist looking for likes and retweets

stephenjmcd

US2 wrote: »

Anyone with a sniffle was referred for one in March, waited weeks then were told they couldn't get tested. Anyway that twitter doc is just an alarmist looking for likes and retweets

Wouldn't surprise me though if anyone with a sniffle is back looking for tests. Like he says requests for tests.

Pretty easy for me to ring up my GP now and ask for a test seeing as its hayfever season and its back with a bang for me

caveat emptor

US2 wrote: »

Anyone with a sniffle was referred for one in March, waited weeks then were told they couldn't get tested. Anyway that twitter doc is just an alarmist looking for likes and retweets

I agree with all of that. He is a bit boy who called wolf.

schmoo2k

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Youre not getting tested when you return, he is, big big big big difference

Even then he will need to isolate for about 8 days until the second result comes back - so 6 days difference (which is a whole work week to be fair).

SeaBreezes

US2 wrote: »

Anyone with a sniffle was referred for one in March, waited weeks then were told they couldn't get tested. Anyway that twitter doc is just an alarmist looking for likes and retweets

Here we go again.
I dont know the man, but hes a doctor and has more hands on experience than most on here.

He has said theres worrying increase in testing and it reminds him of march.

We should be taking note and adjusting accordingly to AVOID another lockdown, not dismissing yet another experienced opinion we dont like.

Positive tests have also been rising and this bug rises exponentially. Its good to be cautious, its good to have warnings, dont ignore the canary in the coal mine.


That said i think mandatory mask wearing when indoors will go a long way to curbing the spread.

stephenjmcd

schmoo2k wrote: »

Even then he will need to isolate for about 8 days until the second result comes back - so 6 days difference (which is a whole work week to be fair).

Yeah took a few goes for Dr Glynn to answer that last night before he said yes he should restrict his movements

US2

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Here we go again.
I dont know the man, but hes a doctor and has more hands on experience than most on here.

He has said theres worrying increase in testing and it reminds him of march.

We should be taking note and adjusting accordingly to AVOID another lockdown, not dismissing yet another experienced opinion we dont like.

Positive tests have also been rising and this bug rises exponentially. Its good to be cautious, its good to have warnings, dont ignore the canary in the coal mine.


That said i think mandatory mask wearing when indoors will go a long way to curbing the spread.

If he is seeing similar levels to march, then naturally you'd have to think every GP in the country is. Unless people are specifically going to him for tests. Read through a few weeks of his timeline. The number of people who actually got tested over the last few weeks (outside of care homes and hospitals) simply does not add up.

ACitizenErased

Bit of an increase in the north today.
No new deaths but 19 additional cases

wadacrack

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Bit of an increase in the north today.
No new deaths but 19 additional cases

Think that maybe is due to a cluster in Derry. Their is alot of worry it seems in that community . They are taking precautions it seems