Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Arghus

robfowler78 wrote: »

Nobody wants to hold them up as a model but it can't be both ways as in people saying that we will have 100s of thousands of deaths from covid if we make a mess of things like UK etc and then kind of ignore that even England isn't seen that volume of deaths and they are a disaster.
Its getting a bit tiresome listening to our guys been mostly negative with the numbers we have. I can only imagine if we have a second wave how depressing they wi be.

There's a difference between negativity and caution. So far the DoH have been sober and cautious. They've struck, largely, the right approach.

It also isn't fair to say that they haven't been positive at times. It's been mentioned countless times that Ireland is currently in a good position with the rate of transmission and there has been constant acknowledgement from the authorities that people have made huge sacrifices over the last few months. People who don't hear this either don't pay attention or won't hear it.

Saying that we are in an uncertain precarious position right now is just a statement of fact. And a lot of people do not not like facts. Stating facts is not negativity.

You can ignore the facts of course, if you'd prefer. You can take a leaf out the United States' book and just pretend the problem goes away if you want it to.

The British government has been wrong time and time - and time - again during all this. Delusion is how they operate.

The government is essentially run by single issue arch Brexiters, they are so far out of their depth it's staggering. The reasons behind Brexit and the reality of its enablement are a testament to what happens when you place delusion rather than objectivity at the heart of everything you do. They are a crowd of politicians singularly incapable of facing facts.They can't. And this defines their approach to Covid: the same delusions, denialism and general incompetence.

Today Boris is putting a positivish spin on things and promising significant normality by Christmas. That's literally an impossible promise. There is no single human being on earth right now that can promise that or say with certainty what the state of affairs will be by then. It's clearly complete bollocks. And the BBC parrot it, without any real critique of what he's saying.

You want that? The totally unfounded BS from a series of proven liars? Well, go ahead. I prefer reality myself.

SeaBreezes

US2 wrote: »

Not much worse than the flu so ?

Sigh.

robfowler78

Arghus wrote: »

There's a difference between negativity and caution. So far the DoH have been sober and cautious. They've struck, largely, the right approach.

It also isn't fair to say that they haven't been positive at times. It's been mentioned countless times that Ireland is currently in a good position with the rate of transmission and there has been constant acknowledgement from the authorities that people have made huge sacrifices over the last few months. People who don't hear this either don't pay attention or won't hear it.

Saying that we are in an uncertain precarious position right now is just a statement of fact. And a lot of people do not not like facts. Stating facts is not negativity.

You can ignore the facts of course, if you'd prefer. You can take a leaf out the United States' book and just pretend the problem goes away if you want it to.

The British government has been wrong time and time - and time - again during all this. Delusion is how they operate.

The government is essentially run by single issue arch Brexiters, they are so far out of their depth it's staggering. The reasons behind Brexit and the reality of its enablement are a testament to what happens when you place delusion rather than objectivity at the heart of everything you do. They are a crowd of politicians singularly incapable of facing facts.They can't. And this defines their approach to Covid: the same delusions, denialism and general incompetence.

Today Boris is putting a positivish spin on things and promising significant normality by Christmas. That's literally an impossible promise. There is no single human being on earth right now that can promise that or say with certainty what the state of affairs will be by then. It's clearly complete bollocks. And the BBC parrot it, without any real critique of what he's saying.

You want that? The totally unfounded BS from a series of proven liars? Well, go ahead. I prefer reality myself.

Looks like I rattle someone's cage to be honest not looking to worry about it your extent.

SeaBreezes

Thought this was interesting as Sweden is a test case of what happens with no controls in place.
Though schools do seem to be the super spreaders. Israel had to shut them down again and Sweden numbers dropping since school hols in June.

https://twitter.com/JoannaTeglund/status/1278305698183593984

drunkmonkey

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1284145330725027840

He's taking sense now would someone go bludgeon that into our dear leaders.

wadacrack

robfowler78 wrote: »

Looks like I rattle someone's cage to be honest not looking to worry about it your extent.

Don;t think that's the case. Just seem to be getting it wrong at the moment. Borderline illogical statements tbh

growleaves

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

Those figures are reasonable when you consider the latest accepted death rate is between 0.6% and 0.7%

The CDC current "best estimate" is 0.5%, but they do not rule out it being higher or lower (could be as low as 0.2%)

At 0.7%, if every single person in the country contracted covid that would give us approx 35k deaths.

Similarly, if every single person in the country contracted influenza every year we would have approx 4,900 influenza deaths per year. (0.1% of 4.9 million people)

Atlantic Dawn

How we can set a green list that conflicts with other countries green lists is beyond me, if we don't want our citizens travelling to UK we shouldn't be allowing UK citizens to travel here.

Santy2015

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-tracking-every-global-effort-to-find-a-covid-19-vaccine-12030675

JP Liz V1

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Dr De Gascun "We have a very good handle" on where infections are occurring and cases are "not popping up unpredictably" around the country.

Why is acting CMO Ronan Glynn saying different

Boggles

growleaves wrote: »

The CDC current "best estimate" is 0.5%, but they do not rule out it being higher or lower (could be as low as 0.2%)

At 0.7%, if every single person in the country contracted covid that would give us approx 35k deaths.

Similarly, if every single person in the country contracted influenza every year we would have approx 4,900 influenza deaths per year. (0.1% of 4.9 million people)

If every single person in Ireland contracted Covid there would be a fúck load more than 35,000 deaths.

The death rate is tied to a emergency systems ability to cope.

I can't believe people are still posting this scutter this far into the pandemic.

ACitizenErased

3 more deaths RIP
34 additional cases

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

3 more deaths RIP
34 additional cases

Dashboard hasn't been updated with the 24hr postives yet from what I can see. Be intersting to see what the 24hr number was

wadacrack

34 yea not liking the direction this is heading in tbh. Could be looking at 50 a day next week or two which would be a problem

Gael23

Not good news. Nearly double yesterday

stephenjmcd

wadacrack wrote: »

34 yea not liking the direction this is heading in tbh. Could be looking at 50 a day next week or two which would be a problem

Or it could be back in the 20s like it was last few days. it's quite volatile, there's going to be days of fluctuation. Time to get used to seeing cases in the 20s and 30s so long as they stay around that.

We had 32 on Tuesday and then 13 and 15 so one day figures aren't going to be a great measure unless there's a continual daily trend of 30+

Let's see where the cases are coming from. Healthcare staff has been extremely high last 3 days

ACitizenErased

Analysis of cases as of midnight Wednesday 15th July - 25,696 cases (+19)

Healthcare Workers +2
Clusters +82
Cases associated with clusters +132

Age Range Affected
0-4 +1
5-14 No Change
15-24 +1
25-34 +9
35-44 +3
45-54 +1
55-64 No Change
65-74 +3
75-84 +1
85+ No Change

Cases by County
Carlow +1
Cork +4
Donegal +2
Dublin +11
Louth +1

Doctor Jimbob

Gael23 wrote: »

Not good news. Nearly double yesterday

I wouldn't worry too much about the difference day to day as that's been fluctuating for a while but the trend towards higher numbers is clear at this point and can't be dismissed as just a blip.

The caution towards reopening makes more sense to me now, but I still can't understand the hesitancy to take action on tourism.

PopTarts

Why won’t the media report on the healthcare staff. I know they probably like to dramatise travel / house parties etc but surely they should be looking at the welfare of the health care staff. Shocking the figures are so high still with these.

ACitizenErased

We're seeing cases in basically the same counties every day now, the main thing is there's no random cases popping up all over the gaff

wadacrack

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Or it could be back in the 20s like it was last few days. it's quite volatile, there's going to be days of fluctuation. Time to get used to seeing cases in the 20s and 30s so long as they stay around that.

Let's see where the cases are coming from. Healthcare staff has been extremely high last 3 days

The trend is clear not the 7 day average is continuing to rise. Their are cases throughout the country too. The likelihood of it suddenly halting at 30 is very slim at this stage. Effective contact tracing will become very difficult. Hopefully I'm wrong

ACitizenErased

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Dashboard hasn't been updated with the 24hr postives yet from what I can see. Be intersting to see what the 24hr number was

Cases updated but still no testing figures

branie2

The cases should be going down, not up!

stephenjmcd

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I wouldn't worry too much about the difference day to day as that's been fluctuating for a while but the trend towards higher numbers is clear at this point and can't be dismissed as just a blip.

The caution towards reopening makes more sense to me now, but I still can't understand the hesitancy to take action on tourism.

The tourism bit is head scratching. They keep talking about tougher measures and then just say oh well we'll be putting the locator form online. Very tough measure that

Gael23

branie2 wrote: »

The cases should be going down, not up!

How do you make that out?

stephenjmcd

wadacrack wrote: »

The trend is clear not the 7 day average is continuing to rise. Their are cases throughout the country too. The likelihood of it suddenly halting at 30 is very slim at this stage. Effective contact tracing will become very difficult. Hopefully I'm wrong

Of course the 7 day average rises, but you get my point that we had 30 earlier in the week and then dropped back down and now 30 again today which shows how volatile everything is.

Well if you go by what Dr De Gascun said earlier they know where the cases are and they aren't randomly popping up according to him which suggests contact tracing is working quite well.

There was always going to be an increae in cases when we reopened more. Surely people didn't expect 10 cases a day??

BringBackMick

Of course as we open up society an uptick in cases is to be expected, it is about making it a manageable number.

Obviously next 5 days of reports will be interesting to see what our level of reopening has led to, hopefully it will cap out at round 40 cases per day.

Unfortunately we gonna have to live with this plague for a long time yet and there will be peaks and troughs, openings and closings.

ACitizenErased

Doesn't sit well with me when we get a high figure without testing numbers

Strazdas

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I wouldn't worry too much about the difference day to day as that's been fluctuating for a while but the trend towards higher numbers is clear at this point and can't be dismissed as just a blip.

The caution towards reopening makes more sense to me now, but I still can't understand the hesitancy to take action on tourism.

The travel thing is a bit of a red herring though. The vast majority of the 34 cases today have nothing to do with travel outside the country.

From what the experts are saying, they are far more concerned about domestic transmission.

Utopia Parkway

branie2 wrote: »

The cases should be going down, not up!

When restrictions are relaxed, cases are probably going to go up. I'm not sure there is a way around that. I think there is an acceptable number of new cases though. Once it starts hitting the high double digits is when they will probably pump the brakes again.

Denmark a similar sized country to ourselves, seem to be pottering along at 30+ cases a day on average. Some days more. Some days less.

Santy2015

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Doesn't sit well with me when we get a high figure without testing numbers

Possibly 10k tests done?

is_that_so

branie2 wrote: »

The cases should be going down, not up!

If there are still cases emerging from contacts you'd expect them to rise for a bit. As long as we don't start hitting 50+ a day and rising there should not be too much of an effect on what's been opened. 100+ a day will probably mean shops, gyms etc closing again.

hmmm

PopTarts wrote: »

Why won’t the media report on the healthcare staff. I know they probably like to dramatise travel / house parties etc but surely they should be looking at the welfare of the health care staff. Shocking the figures are so high still with these.

I suspect the healthcare staff are just a proxy for community transmission at this stage. They're unlikely to be getting infected in hospitals, they're picking it up in the community and are more likely to be tested than joe soap. If the numbers of healthcare staff testing positive are going up, that would be concerning.

JP Liz V1

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

How we can set a green list that conflicts with other countries green lists is beyond me, if we don't want our citizens travelling to UK we shouldn't be allowing UK citizens to travel here.

Exactly if UK, Spain and USA are not for Ireland's green list to travel then we shouldn't be accepting travel from them either

Atlantic Dawn

Do they give a breakdown of the new cases as to whether they were out in the community or within the health/care system?

sonofenoch

All these kuntz on their hollybobs are going to close us down again arent they

Polar101

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Of course the 7 day average rises, but you get my point that we had 30 earlier in the week and then dropped back down and now 30 again today which shows how volatile everything is.

The earlier 30 was explained with a backlog.

This isn't too bad yet, but I'd be concerned about the "big clusters" - they do catch them, but how well are they able to trace all close contacts? Especially since we are told not all close contacts answer the phone or accept to be tested. Hopefully the app will help, and they'll be able to keep infections under control - if they can, then I don't think it matters a lot whether we have 4, 18 or 32 cases a day.

ACitizenErased

Santy2015 wrote: »

Possibly 10k tests done?

probably because thursday always has highest testing figure but I wanna see positive test numbers

drunkmonkey

is_that_so wrote: »

If there are still cases emerging from contacts you'd expect them to rise for a bit. As long as we don't start hitting 50+ a day and rising there should not be too much of an effect on what's been opened. 100+ a day will probably mean shops, gyms etc closing again.

Gyms are open? Thought they'd be last, heavy breathing

is_that_so

Strazdas wrote: »

The travel thing is a bit of a red herring though. The vast majority of the 34 cases today have nothing to do with travel outside the country.

From what the experts are saying, they are far more concerned about domestic transmission.

It's the dreaded house parties, which we'll probably see more of with pubs not opening! I see nothing wrong with them personally, just as long as half the neighbourhood isn't invited.

stevek93

ACitizenErased wrote: »

3 more deaths RIP
34 additional cases

Why is worldometers.info showing 2 less, I also noticed this the other day.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ireland/

Neamhshuntasach

Santy2015 wrote: »

Possibly 10k tests done?

Would be great if so. Positivity rate would be quite similar if 10k or over.

YellowBucket

The impression in getting is a lot of people aren’t taking it seriously anymore as they assumed it was just going to trend towards zero and that would be it.

That’s not what’s happening. It trailed along at low numbers and as soon as we lifted restrictions it has begun to start tending back up again.

I don’t get the sense that most people were taking that much heed of the fact that we need to manage the reopening.

I know these are anecdotal but my observations of last few days in Cork City / Suburbs:

1. Very little mask wearing until this week and it’s still very much a minority. I’ve Asian colleagues who were totally shocked at how lax we were about it.

2. Hand sanitiser not always present at entrances to shops anymore. It was totally universal a few weeks ago. In finding its not there or it’s not being replenished. (I carry my own).

3. Social distancing isn’t happening reliably at all. I was in supermarkets, shops, cafes and all sorts of places and a very significant % of customers aren’t bothered.

4. High contact surfaces all over the place. Just as an example, one cafe I went into (locally run not a multinational) is using shared milk jugs. So hundreds of people are picking those up and touching them all day. I’m not seeing much evidence of anyone really knowing what they’re up to. I’ve seen the same in service stations and motorway services on way to and from Dublin.

5. Abundance of poor efforts / lack of expertise when it comes to planning spaces. I was in a few shops where social distancing efforts were actually doing the complete opposite and were causing people to bump into each other due to the way they had laid out queues.

All in all I think our efforts are mixed and often fairly sloppy. I know lots of people are making huge effort but a lot really aren’t.

6. I think there’s a lot of absorbing of Americans anti mask and anti reality stuff online. I’m hearing garbage information being regurgitated in real life, not just on twitter. We speak English, we are on the same social media. It’s inevitable.

I’m just shocked at the number of people I’ve spoken to who are under the assumption that it was somehow cured by the lockdown. Maybe that’s miscommunication? Maybe it’s people hearing what they want to hear? I don’t know, but it’s not helping.

is_that_so

is_that_so wrote: »

If there are still cases emerging from contacts you'd expect them to rise for a bit. As long as we don't start hitting 50+ a day and rising there should not be too much of an effect on what's been opened. 100+ a day will probably mean shops, gyms etc closing again.

If shouldn’t if the cases are in clusters. If there are a hundred cases a day and random cases popping up frequently it’s a different matter. Is there any instance since reopening of a case linked to a ship, restaurant of other public environment? The more we know about this disease the more we know that 80-90% of spread is through close contact. Other modes do happen, follow the guidelines in public and private and this stays low.

ACitizenErased

stevek93 wrote: »

Why is worldometers.info showing 2 less, I also noticed this the other day.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ireland/

Denotification of 2 cases

is_that_so

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Gyms are open? Thought they'd be last, heavy breathing

Yeah they've been open since 29 June. Very strict on numbers. We have a booking app and every window in the place is flung open. It's never been cleaner!

BringBackMick

So is the rise in cases not a bit of a red herring in itself?

Like if we consider covid is evenly distributed through the population...

If we did 5,000 samples last week and got 15 cases, it is surely obvious that if we do 10,000 tests this week we would get 30 cases, thus no change in the spread of this disease!?

stevek93

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Denotification of 2 cases

Thanks what does that mean?

Non solum non ambulabit

stevek93 wrote: »

Why is worldometers.info showing 2 less, I also noticed this the other day.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ireland/

Denotifications on total cases number

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

If shouldn’t if the cases are in clusters. If there are a hundred cases a day and random cases popping up frequently it’s a different matter. Is there any instance since reopening of a case linked to a ship, restaurant of other public environment? The more we know about this disease the more we know that 80-90% of spread is through close contact. Other modes do happen, follow the guidelines in public and private and this stays low.

I'm not suggesting it will, I am suggesting that's their thinking if cases do start to move upwards quickly. DeGascun hinted as much today.