Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

YellowBucket

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Denotifications on total cases number

Denitrification in the space of a few minutes? Seems a bit unlikely. Typo perhaps ?

ACitizenErased

stevek93 wrote: »

Thanks what does that mean?

just cases that may have been double counted etc

expectationlost

how many of these cases associated with clusters?

Strazdas

is_that_so wrote: »

It's the dreaded house parties, which we'll probably see more of with pubs not opening! I see nothing wrong with them personally, just as long as half the neighbourhood isn't invited.

Yes, it's nearly all Irish people infecting other Irish people in Ireland.....that's why the authorities are much more concerned with what is actually happening here, not abroad.

is_that_so

stevek93 wrote: »

Thanks what does that mean?

That two suspected COVID deaths were other causes.

Non solum non ambulabit

YellowBucket wrote: »

Denitrification in the space of a few minutes? Seems a bit unlikely. Typo perhaps ?

Not today's cases. Older ones.

Nijmegen

BringBackMick wrote: »

So is the rise in cases not a bit of a red herring in itself?

Like if we consider covid is evenly distributed through the population...

If we did 5,000 samples last week and got 15 cases, it is surely obvious that if we do 10,000 tests this week we would get 30 cases, thus no change in the spread of this disease!?

If you ask Donald Trump....

Another way of looking at it is that more people are presenting for tests and there is genuinely more cases - eg 50 people went to a house party, all 50 go for a test and x% of them are positive.

ParkRunner

Seems to be a group actively refusing to wear masks to protect their personal rights to choose, human rights etc. They’re taking a stand against the system to make their point and causing public transport to be held up. It’s disturbing the unbelievably selfish childish mindset some people have.

is_that_so

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, it's nearly all Irish people infecting other Irish people in Ireland.....that's why the authorities are much concerned with what is actually happening here, not abroad.

Yeah, they know where the cases are and they just don't want any more clusters to have to manage.

mloc123

The numbers from the past 7 days from what I can see..

Cases: 119
Hospital admissions: 9
ICU admissions: 1

The hospital numbers are much lower than the historic percentage of total cases

drunkmonkey

ParkRunner wrote: »

Seems to be a group actively refusing to wear masks to protect their personal rights to choose, human rights etc. They’re taking a stand against the system to make their point and causing public transport to be held up. It’s disturbing the unbelievably selfish childish mindset some people have.

No being selfish is not controlling or borders, publishing a green list Monday that requires no quarantine on return. It's for a love of summer holidays not people.

ACitizenErased

I know my Dublin friends will hate that I say this but based on the past few days I'm thinking this is a Leinster problem....

Doctor Jimbob

Strazdas wrote: »

The travel thing is a bit of a red herring though. The vast majority of the 34 cases today have nothing to do with travel outside the country.

From what the experts are saying, they are far more concerned about domestic transmission.

NPHET have raised concerns about travel. The government are, for some reason, declining to take concrete action on it.

Gael23

The numbers we are seeing in themselves are no cause for concern but we are in a established path going in the wrong direction

drunkmonkey

mloc123 wrote: »

The numbers from the past 7 days from what I can see..

Cases: 119
Hospital admissions: 9
ICU admissions: 1

The hospital numbers are much lower than the historic percentage of total cases

The average age contacting it is lower hence less admissions. It's probably going to rise soon though.

pc7

mloc123 wrote: »

The numbers from the past 7 days from what I can see..

Cases: 119
Hospital admissions: 9
ICU admissions: 1

The hospital numbers are much lower than the historic percentage of total cases

Would that be due to it being a younger demographic getting infected?

stevek93

is_that_so wrote: »

That two suspected COVID deaths were other causes.

Thanks

drunkmonkey

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I know my Dublin friends will hate that I say this but based on the past few days I'm thinking this is a Leinster problem....

Your going to get lambasted for that one but your correct and right.

theballz

What triggers a move back to phase 2?

is_that_so

is_that_so wrote: »

I'm not suggesting it will, I am suggesting that's their thinking if cases do start to move upwards quickly. DeGascun hinted as much today.

Far from being the demon many here suggested he maybe, is it possible public health physician Holohan held NPHET to a more realistic goal, whereas the academics have now gotten hold of the balance of advice and are now engaged in a experiment in elimination? It was well understood early that elimination was not the goal. In the reaction to low numbers of cases this seems to have been lost

Boggles

I notice no outrage from the pubs being kept closed this evening?

Hmmmmmmm.

mloc123

pc7 wrote: »

Would that be due to it being a younger demographic getting infected?

Or are they catching more people without symptoms now

Eod100

I wonder are they expecting case numbers around that number over next few weeks with the comment about ''seeding'' last night. Or they have to wait and see and weren't confident going to phase 4 until saw what case number were like over next few weeks

mloc123

theballz wrote: »

What triggers a move back to phase 2?

100 cases a day according to NPHET

Boggles

theballz wrote: »

What triggers a move back to phase 2?

100+ daily cases with a rising trend.

Elements of phase 2, not all of it.

Apparently.

drunkmonkey

Boggles wrote: »

I notice no outrage from the pubs being kept closed this evening?

Hmmmmmmm.

Going to the pub later, have to travel a few km but no food required and you can sit at the bar. God bless country living.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

I notice no outrage from the pubs being kept closed this evening?

Hmmmmmmm.

On no 34 cases, end of the world!

Honestly believe we can hop in and out of lockdowns of various sectors and emerge from this as a strong society?

Boggles

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Going to the pub later, have to travel a few km but no food required and you can sit at the bar. God bless country living.

Sure you are.

:rolleyes:

Ohmeha

theballz wrote: »

What triggers a move back to phase 2?

Possibility if it we hit 100+ cases according to De Gascun from NPHET


https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/if-we-hit-100-covid-cases-per-day-were-going-back-to-phase-2-what-would-that-look-like-again-39376043.html

Nijmegen

Eod100 wrote: »

I wonder are they expecting case numbers around that number over next few weeks with the comment about ''seeding'' last night. Or they have to wait and see and weren't confident going to phase 4 until saw what case number were like over next few weeks

One assumes they have some modelling guided by trends in other countries as well as leading indicators (like tests requested) to indicate its gonna go up next week based on what we did last week and this and whether it comes back down is based on what we do this week and next. So trying to warn the public to take it seriously before it’s serious looking.

There’s real inertia with this stuff, it’s more like trying to steer a ferry than a race car.

drunkmonkey

mloc123 wrote: »

100 cases a day according to NPHET

Schools closed at 43 in total, now 99 per day is acceptable, the mind boggles.

ACitizenErased

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Schools closed at 43 in total, now 99 per day is acceptable, the mind boggles.

Difference is community transmission

Nijmegen

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Schools closed at 43 in total, now 99 per day is acceptable, the mind boggles.

We had no effective testing at scale back then. 43 identified cases was probably more in reality and we couldn’t contain the spread. The battle against Covid isn’t linear.

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

On no 34 cases, end of the world!

No one said it was the end of the world.

Strange you would say that.

But there was outrage on here yesterday that the pubs were being kept closed.

Pretty much crickets this evening.

Maybe NPHET aren't involved in a wide conspiracy of fear mongering to keep me out of my local.

Just a thought.

The White Wolf

Boggles wrote: »

I notice no outrage from the pubs being kept closed this evening?

Hmmmmmmm.

Boozers can't be blamed for this, they were closed.

drunkmonkey

Boggles wrote: »

Sure you are.

:rolleyes:

Sure I am just waiting to hear back from my wingman.

drunkmonkey

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Schools closed at 43 in total, now 99 per day is acceptable, the mind boggles.

43 in March is more like 500 now given that most people presenting with symptoms even were not getting tested in March

ACitizenErased

Boggles wrote: »

No one said it was the end of the world.

Strange you would say that.

But there was outrage on here yesterday that the pubs were being kept closed.

Pretty much crickets this evening.

Maybe NPHET aren't involved in a wide conspiracy of fear mongering to keep me out of my local.

Just a thought.

I don't see any reason why pubs aren't opening next week tbh

BringBackMick

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Schools closed at 43 in total, now 99 per day is acceptable, the mind boggles.

Test positivity rate back then was around 10% i think! It is around 0.3% now.

Sometimes the mind boggles at how blinkered people are.

stephenjmcd

Utopia Parkway wrote: »

When restrictions are relaxed, cases are probably going to go up. I'm not sure there is a way around that. I think there is an acceptable number of new cases though. Once it starts hitting the high double digits is when they will probably pump the brakes again.

Denmark a similar sized country to ourselves, seem to be pottering along at 30+ cases a day on average. Some days more. Some days less.

Yup its a fairly volatile number in most places. In the Danes case they've 1m distancing, no masks and everything has been open nearly 2 months. Doesn't seem to be any sustained spike, as you say some days more some days less. They'd 91 on Monday and 30s / 40s rest of this week. Last week a few days below 20 and others over 30. No pattern to it really

MOR316

So if we did go back a phase, according to Dr Cillian De Gascun, it wouldn't be restrictions in terms of how far you could travel outside your home but, it would be indoor places having to close again.

Would be better from a mental aspect to an individual. I know I'd go insane if I had to stay in my town again for such a long period

is_that_so

ParkRunner wrote: »

Seems to be a group actively refusing to wear masks to protect their personal rights to choose, human rights etc. They’re taking a stand against the system to make their point and causing public transport to be held up. It’s disturbing the unbelievably selfish childish mindset some people have.

Name calling is not a terribly effective means of persuasion. Masks on public transport really was more in anticipation of a lot more people on the move and an attempt to boost compliance. It worked.

Mostly they do it because they don't have masks and just don't think about them. The huge potential fine would also have been a trigger point for some. They may still be following all the other guidance though. It doesn't seem that case are coming from that anyway nor from supermarkets.
Supermarkets have rarely been above 10% in my experience but many people seem to follow everything else well. Ultimately we have to look after ourselves and avoid risky situations with others.

Boggles

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Sure I am just waiting to hear back from my wingman.

Yer flying to the pub?

Good man. Have a good one.

LiquidZeb

The White Wolf wrote: »

Boozers can't be blamed for this, they were closed.

Some people seem to have a psychotic hatred of pubs and anyone involved with them. The only ones who constantly bring them up are the ones giving out about everyone else going on about everyone else talking about them.

JP Liz V1

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I know my Dublin friends will hate that I say this but based on the past few days I'm thinking this is a Leinster problem....

Dublin is our epic centre

BringBackMick

And how is it a headline that the United States might be excluded from the Green List?

Like seriously? How is that a headline on RTE?

It is so bloody obvious they wont be on a green list. It is insane sometimes to see what tripe gets dished to us.

LiquidZeb

Boggles wrote: »

Yer flying to the pub?

Good man. Have a good one.

Did a publican steal your missus or something? Jesus change the record.

stephenjmcd

Polar101 wrote: »

The earlier 30 was explained with a backlog.

This isn't too bad yet, but I'd be concerned about the "big clusters" - they do catch them, but how well are they able to trace all close contacts? Especially since we are told not all close contacts answer the phone or accept to be tested. Hopefully the app will help, and they'll be able to keep infections under control - if they can, then I don't think it matters a lot whether we have 4, 18 or 32 cases a day.

no testing figures released yet for last 24hrs so we've no idea if this is a delay or not. Have to wait and see

Always_Running

Sadly 6 more people have died to this virus so far this week.

The 7 day average is 22 cases a day which is still low when you consider the amount of testing done. Hospital, ICU are the numbers to watch before worrying.

wadacrack

Nijmegen wrote: »

We had no effective testing at scale back then. 43 identified cases was probably more in reality and we couldn’t contain the spread. The battle against Covid isn’t linear.

The problem back then is that we were basically playing catch up and detecting cases very late after symptoms and people were waiting weeks to be tested. Contct tracing effectively useless after 3 days. Whether that is enough now to contain spread I'm not too sure. Asymptomatic transmission makes it very difficult probably one reason masks are so useful. I do think we have lost control abit and the next few weeks will show a big enough increase. Hopefully I am wrong. The RO is so high with the virus that masks/distancing and no large gatherings are probably reducing it to near Flu like levels but probably likely to continue rising