Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Wild Field 1831

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Dublin is our epic centre

????

Epic Centre?

Any sign of an uptick in hospitalisations? That’s what we should be looking at, not daily cases. That was the whole purpose of restrictions in the first place

is_that_so

MOR316 wrote: »

So if we did go back a phase, according to Dr Cillian De Gascun, it wouldn't be restrictions in terms of how far you could travel outside your home but, it would be indoor places having to close again.

Would be better from a mental aspect to an individual. I know I'd go insane if I had to stay in my town again for such a long period

I think it would be the places shutting down, leaving you nowhere to go anyway.

LiquidZeb

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Dublin is our epic centre

Well who'd have thought our capital and most populated city would have the most cases? It's like that's where a load of people live. Didn't take Poirot to solve that one.

Strazdas

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

NPHET have raised concerns about travel. The government are, for some reason, declining to take concrete action on it.

Well, Dr Glynn says NPHET are fully on board with the green list and are advising Govt on it.

Jim_Hodge

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Dublin is our epic centre

Is that a Freudian slip?

ACitizenErased

Deleted User wrote: »

Any sign of an uptick in hospitalisations? That’s what we should be looking at, not daily cases. That was the whole purpose of restrictions in the first place

Nope, continuously reducing. ICU's are nearly empty.

YellowBucket

[Deleted User] wrote: »

On no 34 cases, end of the world!

Honestly believe we can hop in and out of lockdowns of various sectors and emerge from this as a strong society?

The problem is exponentials. It tends to move up (and also down) very rapidly. 34 cases can become 75 cases and while the commentators are discussing what that means and what the implications are you’ve shot over 100 cases.

Economically, it could this thing is going to do damage no matter how we look at it.

Boggles

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I don't see any reason why pubs aren't opening next week tbh

Good for you.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I’m not usually cynical about the figures being given but it really didn’t sit well with me that we had some sort of backlog the day before the cabinet meeting to be honest

But you were one of the ones peddling conspiracy theories.

LiquidZeb

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Is that a Freudian slip?

Maybe she meant the EPIC emigration museum in Dublin?

ACitizenErased

13 counties have not had a case in 5+ days.
19 haven't had a case in over 2 days.
7 counties have had cases in the last 2 days.

ACitizenErased

Boggles wrote: »

Good for you.



But you were one of the ones peddling conspiracy theories.

I can't wait for the day where you post a constructive comment on this thread.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

Any sign of an uptick in hospitalisations? That’s what we should be looking at, not daily cases. That was the whole purpose of restrictions in the first place

Well RTE have a running tally on suspected cases, otherwise it's all very low. If it is predominantly the U35s being diagnosed, theoretically that should mean a low number of subsequent hospitalisations.

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Nope, continuously reducing. ICU's are nearly empty.

It definitely appears then that the whole purpose of what we have done over the last 4 months has been lost to a fear of any cases at all. We never went for an elimination strategy, so when we don’t get elimination we can’t be surprised

JP Liz V1

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

????

Epic Centre?

Epi Epic

Boggles

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I can't wait for the day where you post a constructive comment on this thread.

Reel your neck in FFS and stop trying to Thread Win the whole time.

If are peddling conspiracy theories, expect to be called on it.

The White Wolf

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Some people seem to have a psychotic hatred of pubs and anyone involved with them. The only ones who constantly bring them up are the ones giving out about everyone else going on about everyone else talking about them.

If there is a surge it will just prove that pubs aren't to blame won't it? And that shock horror, it's comes down to people doing what they want no matter how much you try to restrict their movement.

In regards to the ones who keep bringing it up, I think you'll find these people will generally take any opportunity to wag their finger and have a whinge.

ACitizenErased

Boggles wrote: »

Reel your neck in FFS and stop trying to Thread Win the whole time.

If are peddling conspiracy theories, expect to be called on it.

Thread Win is a new one Am I winning?

drunkmonkey

wadacrack wrote: »

The problem back then is that we were basically playing catch up and detecting cases very late after symptoms and people were waiting weeks to be tested. Contct tracing effectively useless after 3 days. Whether that is enough now to contain spread I'm not too sure. Asymptomatic transmission makes it very difficult probably one reason masks are so useful. I do think we have lost control abit and the next few weeks will show a big enough increase. Hopefully I am wrong. The RO is so high with the virus that masks/distancing and no large gatherings are probably reducing it to near Flu like levels but probably likely to continue rising

Asymptomatic spread isn't a problem and is rare according to WHO.

DevilsHaircut

Strazdas wrote: »

Well, Dr Glynn says NPHET are fully on board with the green list and are advising Govt on it.

He said nothing of the sort, and made clear that NPHET still advise legal restrictions on travel.

He said last night that the only input they will have is supplying Cabinet with the comparative data.

Ficheall

Always_Running wrote: »

The 7 day average is 22 cases a day which is still low when you consider the amount of testing done. Hospital, ICU are the numbers to watch before worrying.

The problem with relying on hospital and ICU numbers is that it's younger people getting infected at the moment, and by the time they pass it on to their elders and they end up needing hospitalisation or ICU, the virus will have a much firmer foothold.

hetuzozaho

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Dublin is our epic centre

It is brilliant to be fair.

LiquidZeb

The White Wolf wrote: »

If there is a surge it will just prove that pubs aren't to blame won't it? And that shock horror, it's comes down to people doing what they want no matter how much you try to restrict their movement.

In regards to the ones who keep bringing it up, I think you'll find these people will generally take any opportunity to wag their finger and have a whinge.

I'm sure there'll be a pub owner who let a few fellas in on the sly for them to heap the blame on. Maybe a few American tourists and cyclists and joggers for good measure.

hetuzozaho

hetuzozaho wrote: »

It is brilliant to be fair.

I said 3 months ago we needed to blow the bridges on the M50, and nothing has changed it seems. Now that would be epic

Gruffalux

US2 wrote: »

Not much worse than the flu so ?

Have to just express my view on this from what little I can glean from internet as a non medical person.
It seems an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.6 - 0.7% is being mooted recently for Covid.
This is from meta study of many studies.
I cannot find where it was said - WHO ? CDC?

We have reasonably good idea of population percentage infected by Covid as antibody studies are returning numbers between say 3 to 7 % of populations. With some outliers.

Flu is said to have a fatality rate of 0.1% so people seem to be thinking Covid is not THAT much worse. But this flu rate is Case Fatality Rate. The infection rate of flu in populations is about 10% of people annually, many of whom do not even notice they have it. So Infection Fatality Rate in flu is actually much less than 0.1%. Could even be a quarter of the case fatality rate I have read.

So IFR estimated for Covid is way more than for IFR for Flu from what I can see.

I am very happy to have this refuted and better explained to me, as long as the refutation is based on facts and not on emotional dismissal.

LiquidZeb

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I said 3 months ago we needed to blow the bridges on the M50, and nothing has changed it seems. Now that would be epic

I say we burn Dublin to the ground and make Cork the capital. Culchies of the world unite!

JP Liz V1

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Asymptomatic spread isn't a problem and is rare according to WHO.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

Far from being the demon many here suggested he maybe, is it possible public health physician Holohan held NPHET to a more realistic goal, whereas the academics have now gotten hold of the balance of advice and are now engaged in a experiment in elimination? It was well understood early that elimination was not the goal. In the reaction to low numbers of cases this seems to have been lost

I don't think they want to be seen to be dropping the ball and they are now zooming in on specific targets, travel they see as being a huge risk, indoor locations and the potential risk from a large number now moving around.

Masks to me are more of a political decision and copying what everyone else has done rather than a NPHET consensus.

I also doubt that we going after elimination, just very low numbers for when the schools finally reopen and people start returning to offices.

Strazdas

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

He said nothing of the sort, and made clear that NPHET still advise legal restrictions on travel.

He said last night that the only input they will have is supplying Cabinet with the comparative data.

"We wouldn't have undue concern about people travelling to one of the countries on the green list" :

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1283810338438361094

JP Liz V1

LiquidZeb wrote: »

I say we burn Dublin to the ground and make Cork the capital. Culchies of the world unite!

Cork is the real capital, the people's capital

Away With The Fairies

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Asymptomatic spread isn't a problem and is rare according to WHO.

Do you think it's still February 2020?

is_that_so

Gruffalox wrote: »

Have to just express my view on this from what little I can glean from internet as a non medical person.
It seems an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.6 - 0.7% is being mooted recently for Covid.
This is from meta study of many studies.
I cannot find where it was said - WHO ? CDC?

We have reasonably good idea of population percentage infected by Covid as antibody studies are returning numbers between say 3 to 7 % of populations. With some outliers.

Flu is said to have a fatality rate of 0.1% so people seem to be thinking Covid is not THAT much worse. But this flu rate is Case Fatality Rate. The infection rate of flu in populations is about 10% of people annually, many of whom do not even notice they have it. So Infection Fatality Rate in flu is actually much less than 0.1%. Could even be a quarter of the case fatality rate I have read.

So IFR estimated for Covid is way more than for IFR for Flu from what I can see.

I am very happy to have this refuted and better explained to me, as long as the refutation is based on facts and not on emotional dismissal.

IFR can be affected by the numbers who end up in hospital, a greater concern IMO of COVID-19. If a health system is overrun it will go up. If, as in Germany, they cope well, it's very low.

JP Liz V1

Can we not just ban non essential travel outwards and inwards, if we take in tourist holiday makers from Covid hot spots not green listed countries then Irish will want to travel outwards to them or other countries

drunkmonkey

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Do you think it's still February 2020?

It's hard to keep up, now it's asymptomatic under 35's are spreading it, doesn't bode well for us given this weeks numbers..

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/top-hhs-official-says-most-of-the-coronavirus-transmission-is-from-asymptomatic-people.html

mloc123

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Schools closed at 43 in total, now 99 per day is acceptable, the mind boggles.

And an average of 30 people a day were admitted to hospital in March... compared to 1 a day now.

In April we had days where over 100 people a day were admitted

Thierry12

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Asymptomatic spread isn't a problem and is rare according to WHO.

Think that's our biggest problem

9 months in and we still know **** all about the virus

Find it gas that all those antibody tests around the world have all been a waste of time

We have no idea how many have been infected

We are making all these life changing economic decisions and all the data could be wrong

Our results indicate that epidemiological data relying only on the detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies may lead to a substantial underestimation of prior exposure to the virus

Icantthinkof1

Speaking of antibodies when are they releasing the findings from the antibody tests they carried out in Dublin and Sligo?

DevilsHaircut

Gruffalox wrote: »

Have to just express my view on this from what little I can glean from internet as a non medical person.
It seems an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.6 - 0.7% is being mooted recently for Covid.
This is from meta study of many studies.
I cannot find where it was said - WHO ? CDC?

We have reasonably good idea of population percentage infected by Covid as antibody studies are returning numbers between say 3 to 7 % of populations. With some outliers.

Flu is said to have a fatality rate of 0.1% so people seem to be thinking Covid is not THAT much worse. But this flu rate is Case Fatality Rate. The infection rate of flu in populations is about 10% of people annually, many of whom do not even notice they have it. So Infection Fatality Rate in flu is actually much less than 0.1%. Could even be a quarter of the case fatality rate I have read.

So IFR estimated for Covid is way more than for IFR for Flu from what I can see.

I am very happy to have this refuted and better explained to me, as long as the refutation is based on facts and not on emotional dismissal.

Indeed, the 0.1% commonly cited for flu is the case fatality rate (i.e. for the number of detected cases).

The infection fatality rate refers to all cases (including undetected).

So the IFR for Covid is orders of magnitude greater than for flu.

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261808811557281792

hmmm

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

A good reason not to rely on soundbites. There is asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic and symptomatic spread. Most people are pre-symptomatic and become symptomatic. There is very little true asymptomatic spread, but deliberately confusing this is used as a stick to try and let on that the WHO are stupid.

LiquidZeb

LiquidZeb wrote: »

I say we burn Dublin to the ground and make Cork the capital. Culchies of the world unite!

Let’s not be too hasty now..Dublin is bad enough, cork would be insufferable

LiquidZeb

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Let’s not be too hasty now..Dublin is bad enough, cork would be insufferable

Alright, we'll please everyone and go for Manorhamilton.

Thierry12

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

Speaking of antibodies when are they releasing the findings from the antibody tests they carried out in Dublin and Sligo?

What's the point?

They will be wrong

MOR316

is_that_so wrote: »

I think it would be the places shutting down, leaving you nowhere to go anyway.

Well, I like going for walks around Killiney hill park and stuff so I could do that where as before I couldn't

If it's a case of places closing down whilst you could still go for walks along the beach and parks like that, outside of your home, I personally would prefer it to the phase 2 from last time

Arghus

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I don't see any reason why pubs aren't opening next week tbh

I'm not an epidemiologist, but I presume it has something to do with the fact that case numbers are rising and they don't know for sure if it signals a resurgence of the virus or not.

And given that pubs are, next to nightclubs - which some of them are very close to in practice - the one type of establishment where all the practices proven to provide the ideal circumstances to encourage further potential spread of the virus more or less constitute the usual pub going experience... maybe it's just best to pause with opening pubs at this present moment?

It could be down to increased testing, but I presume they'd rather find that after the fact, then discover it is actually a proper resurgence and then try to close the pubs after that fact. At which case the damage will probably be done and will take far longer to correct.

I don't think it's hard to understand at all.

LiquidZeb

Thierry12 wrote: »

What's the point?

They will be wrong

I think it's t cells that are the more accurate metric but they're much more difficult and expensive so we'll probably never know for sure how many people have or had it.

Turtwig

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Asymptomatic spread isn't a problem and is rare according to WHO.

Which is largely true for modes of transmission.
Pre-symptomatic transmission is very significant. Trouble is common parlance people take asymptomatic to mean both asymptomatic (never shows symptoms) and Pre-symptomatic (not yet showing symptoms).

I'm not a fan of the WHO spokesperson for forgetting their potential audience but I'm less of fan for people who seem to love dragging the chestnut up.

ACitizenErased

Arghus wrote: »

I'm not an epidemiologist, but I presume it has something to do with the fact that case numbers are rising and they don't know for sure if it signals a resurgence of the virus or not.

And given that pubs are, next to nightclubs - which some of them are very close to in practice - the one type of establishment where all the practices proven to provide the ideal circumstances to encourage further potential spread of the virus more or less constitute the usual pub going experience... maybe it's just best to pause with opening pubs at this present moment?

It could be down to increased testing, but I presume they'd rather find that after the fact, then discover it is actually a proper resurgence and then try to close the pubs after the fact. At which case the damage will probably be done and will take far longer to correct.

I don't think it's hard to understand at all.

It's fairly common sense that pubs closed = more house parties, which is the problem.

Eod100

Brazil doing better than US. Says a lot about US response. https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1284160740056879111?s=19

Thierry12

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Indeed, the 0.1% commonly cited for flu is the case fatality rate (i.e. for the number of detected cases).

The infection fatality rate refers to all cases (including undetected).

So the IFR for Covid is orders of magnitude greater than for flu.

That doesn't seem right what he posted?

We don't test for the flu here outside of hospital settings, so the fatality rate among tested cases here and death is probably much higher than 0.1%

We presume it's 0.1% as we prognose rather than test for influenza

Always_Running

Ficheall wrote: »

The problem with relying on hospital and ICU numbers is that it's younger people getting infected at the moment, and by the time they pass it on to their elders and they end up needing hospitalisation or ICU, the virus will have a much firmer foothold.

I don't see us having the same problem we had with our elders now as back in April, March. We have a far better understanding of this virus now and clusters are unlikely to get out out of control.