Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

ACitizenErased

Eod100 wrote: »

Brazil doing better than US. Says a lot about US response. https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1284160740056879111?s=19

Am I right in saying that if the US and Brazil got their cases under control then only some countries (India, Russia etc) are actually increasing?

is_that_so

Eod100 wrote: »

Brazil doing better than US. Says a lot about US response. https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1284160740056879111?s=19

That's good to hear. More down to the health authorities and state governors giving Bolsonaro the finger although he'll try to claim it as a victory.

drunkmonkey

Turtwig wrote: »

Which is largely true for modes of transmission.
Pre-symptomatic transmission is very significant. Trouble is common parlance people take asymptomatic to mean both asymptomatic (never shows symptoms) and Pre-symptomatic (not yet showing symptoms).

I'm not a fan of the WHO spokesperson for forgetting their potential audience but I'm less of fan for people who seem to love dragging the chestnut up.

See the link I posted, 3hrs old, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/top-hhs-official-says-most-of-the-coronavirus-transmission-is-from-asymptomatic-people.html

Most transmission of the coronavirus is coming from people who are asymptomatic and never develop any signs of the virus, a top official from the Department of Health and Human Services said Friday.

Arghus

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's fairly common sense that pubs closed = more house parties, which is the problem.

Yeah, but the government can't ban House Parties. They can close pubs.

ShineOn7

Got a phone call from a friend earlier who works in a major Irish hospital;

They were at a meeting earlier and were told to expect 200 cases a day in Ireland in about 3-4 weeks

Make of that what you will

Eod100

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Am I right in saying that if the US and Brazil got their cases under control then only some countries (India, Russia etc) are actually increasing?

Think they'd be some of worst affected countries alright. Think US will get worse before it gets better unfortunately.

wadacrack

9,512 tests conducted in the last 24 hours. Seems very high.

DevilsHaircut

Strazdas wrote: »

"We wouldn't have undue concern about people travelling to one of the countries on the green list" :

That's not 'fully onboard'.

Letter of 14 July: 'NPHET has significant and growing concerns regarding the potential for travel related introduction of the disease to increase the risk of a potential second wave...

NPHET continues to advise Irish residents against non-essential travel outside of Ireland at this time.'

https://www.gov.ie/en/collection/ba4aa0-letters-from-the-cmo-to-the-minister-for-health/#july

ACitizenErased

Only 26 positive tests in last 24 hours

mean gene

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Got a phone call from a friend earlier who works in a major Irish hospital;

They were at a meeting earlier and were told to expect 200 cases a day in Ireland in about 3-4 weeks

Make of that what you will

ill make nothing of it because its rubbish

ACitizenErased

LATEST TESTING UPDATE

Tests conducted last 24hrs: 9512
Tests conducted last 7 days: 49,925
Positive tests last 24hrs: 26
Positivity rate last 7 days: 0.3%

is_that_so

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Got a phone call from a friend earlier who works in a major Irish hospital;

They were at a meeting earlier and were told to expect 200 cases a day in Ireland in about 3-4 weeks

Make of that what you will

Preparing for the worst and people extrapolating data?

cnocbui

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Asymptomatic spread isn't a problem and is rare according to WHO.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/top-hhs-official-says-most-of-the-coronavirus-transmission-is-from-asymptomatic-people.html?&qsearchterm=asymptomatic

Bad timing, old chap. Just out today.

ACitizenErased

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Got a phone call from a friend earlier who works in a major Irish hospital;

They were at a meeting earlier and were told to expect 200 cases a day in Ireland in about 3-4 weeks

Make of that what you will

Father works in the CUH and he said the doctor's are ****ting it.

Santy2015

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Only 26 positive tests in last 24 hours

34 reported??
Also I did some maths... it’s been a while as a percentage of population today our cases were 0.0000064%
Uk 0.000010%
They could be opening football stadiums in a few weeks....

ShineOn7

mean gene wrote: »

ill make nothing of it because its rubbish

I hope you're right

The friend in question hasn't passed any comment like this re; Covid since it began

ACitizenErased

Santy2015 wrote: »

34 reported??
Also I did some maths... it’s been a while as a percentage of population today our cases were 0.0000064%
Uk 0.000010%
They could be opening football stadiums in a few weeks....

We've had 50 positive tests in last 48 hours and 55 cases reported

DevilsHaircut

A rise in cases that starts with the 20-30 cohort doesn't stay there.

https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1283134585665200131

ShineOn7

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I know my Dublin friends will hate that I say this but based on the past few days I'm thinking this is a Leinster problem....

It's a capital city problem all the world over

There's been very few big cities that are their country's main hub who've dodged the Covid bullet

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

LATEST TESTING UPDATE

Tests conducted last 24hrs: 9512
Tests conducted last 7 days: 49,925
Positive tests last 24hrs: 26
Positivity rate last 7 days: 0.3%

9,500 tests in 24hrs is extremely high.

So 26 postives, where has 34 come from then because its been fairly accurate since the weekend back log was processed through

ACitizenErased

stephenjmcd wrote: »

9,500 tests in 24hrs is extremely high.

So 26 postives, where has 34 come from then because its been fairly accurate since the weekend back log was processed through

I was a little concerned after seeing 34 but now that the testing data is there it's not that concerning

ShineOn7

YellowBucket wrote: »

The impression in getting is a lot of people aren’t taking it seriously anymore as they assumed it was just going to trend towards zero and that would be it.

That’s not what’s happening. It trailed along at low numbers and as soon as we lifted restrictions it has begun to start tending back up again.

I don’t get the sense that most people were taking that much heed of the fact that we need to manage the reopening.

I know these are anecdotal but my observations of last few days in Cork City / Suburbs:

1. Very little mask wearing until this week and it’s still very much a minority. I’ve Asian colleagues who were totally shocked at how lax we were about it.

2. Hand sanitiser not always present at entrances to shops anymore. It was totally universal a few weeks ago. In finding its not there or it’s not being replenished. (I carry my own).

3. Social distancing isn’t happening reliably at all. I was in supermarkets, shops, cafes and all sorts of places and a very significant % of customers aren’t bothered.

4. High contact surfaces all over the place. Just as an example, one cafe I went into (locally run not a multinational) is using shared milk jugs. So hundreds of people are picking those up and touching them all day. I’m not seeing much evidence of anyone really knowing what they’re up to. I’ve seen the same in service stations and motorway services on way to and from Dublin.

5. Abundance of poor efforts / lack of expertise when it comes to planning spaces. I was in a few shops where social distancing efforts were actually doing the complete opposite and were causing people to bump into each other due to the way they had laid out queues.

All in all I think our efforts are mixed and often fairly sloppy. I know lots of people are making huge effort but a lot really aren’t.

6. I think there’s a lot of absorbing of Americans anti mask and anti reality stuff online. I’m hearing garbage information being regurgitated in real life, not just on twitter. We speak English, we are on the same social media. It’s inevitable.

I’m just shocked at the number of people I’ve spoken to who are under the assumption that it was somehow cured by the lockdown. Maybe that’s miscommunication? Maybe it’s people hearing what they want to hear? I don’t know, but it’s not helping.

Ireland's attitude to Covid very well summed up right there

Excellent post

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I was a little concerned after seeing 34 but now that the testing data is there it's not that concerning

its a hell of alot of tests for 1 day.

Only 3 weeks ago that would have been roughly the total for the week

DevilsHaircut

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

Speaking of antibodies when are they releasing the findings from the antibody tests they carried out in Dublin and Sligo?

They had trouble getting people to respond to the request letter (Tony Holohan tweeted to encourage take-up).

Otherwise the result are/were due in late August, if they got enough participants.

wadacrack

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

A rise in cases that starts with the 20-30 cohort doesn't stay there.

https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1283134585665200131

Sadly this is difficult for some here to grasp. Its much more infectious than Flu as we all know. Flu hits a large majority every year. Distancing/masks probably only likelt to slow bring the RO down to 2.5 or so eventually

DevilsHaircut

Thierry12 wrote: »

That doesn't seem right what he posted?

We don't test for the flu here outside of hospital settings, so the fatality rate among tested cases here and death is probably much higher than 0.1%

We presume it's 0.1% as we prognose rather than test for influenza

If you have a source on this (that doesn't confuse CFR with IFR)...

Wolf359f

Deleted User wrote: »

Any sign of an uptick in hospitalisations? That’s what we should be looking at, not daily cases. That was the whole purpose of restrictions in the first place

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Nope, continuously reducing. ICU's are nearly empty.

Last 7 days admissions (11-17th July):
ICU: +2
Hospital: +9

7 days before that (4-10th July):
ICU: +1
Hospital: +6

Definitely ticking upward. I know discharges are increasing so there's less people in hospital/ICU, but the admissions are on an upward trend.

ShineOn7

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Father works in the CUH and he said the doctor's are ****ting it.

They were told similar about 200 cases a day Citizen?

ACitizenErased

Wolf359f wrote: »

Last 7 days admissions (11-17th July):
ICU: +2
Hospital: +9

7 days before that (4-10th July):
ICU: +1
Hospital: +6

Definitely ticking upward. I know discharges are increasing so there's less people in hospital/ICU, but the admissions are on an upward trend.

The only place that's actually seen an increase in the last week is the Mater in Dublin. 7 in hospital there (out of 13 nationwide) and everywhere else besides UHW (2) is either empty or has 1.

ACitizenErased

ShineOn7 wrote: »

They were told similar about 200 cases a day Citizen?

Nope no talks there about what to expect

ShineOn7

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Nope no talks there about what to expect

He's shíting it though because he suspects a big increase?

ACitizenErased

ShineOn7 wrote: »

He's shíting it though because he suspects a big increase?

He's not a doctor but he said the doctors there are worried based on what they see on telly basically

ZX7R

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I hope you're right

The friend in question hasn't passed any comment like this re; Covid since it began

My GP is offering referral for anyone who attends his clinic doesn't matter what is wrong with you.

MOR316

ACitizenErased wrote: »

He's not a doctor but he said the doctors there are worried based on what they see on telly basically

So, like everyone else in this thread and the country?

Cool

polesheep

ShineOn7 wrote: »

He's shíting it though because he suspects a big increase?

There have been rumours circulating in the hospitals all week regarding this. They are unsubstantiated rumours. This happens when accurate information is not provided. Since the change of government, whatever about the disease, the spread of misinformation and confusion has gone through the roof.

podgeandrodge

stephenjmcd wrote: »

its a hell of alot of tests for 1 day.

Only 3 weeks ago that would have been roughly the total for the week

So why the language about "increasing cases" without the context of increased testing? And if positivity rates not increasing where is the concern? Are they taking actions from a pro-active perspective based on what might happen or is there another measure here I don't understand?

ShineOn7

Someone on Reddit Ireland ran some numbers

The increase was always going to happen, but 34 cases with an r of 1.8 means we will be at 110 cases a day in two weeks which will be too much and would likely mean going back down a phase

ACitizenErased

podgeandrodge wrote: »

So why the language about "increasing cases" without the context of increased testing? And if positivity rates not increasing where is the concern? Are they taking actions from a pro-active perspective based on what might happen or is there another measure here I don't understand?

Based on what I can see the positivity rate has increase by a tiny tiny bit and by that I mean by less than 0.1%

Boggles

stephenjmcd wrote: »

its a hell of alot of tests for 1 day.

Only 3 weeks ago that would have been roughly the total for the week

Again.

We weren't testing care home staff last week.

There is 32,000 staff to be tested every week for 4 weeks.

ACitizenErased

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Someone on Reddit Ireland ran some numbers

We had 26 positive tests in the last 24 hours so i'm doubting that'll come true tbh

GeorgeBailey

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Got a phone call from a friend earlier who works in a major Irish hospital;

They were at a meeting earlier and were told to expect 200 cases a day in Ireland in about 3-4 weeks

Make of that what you will

Ooooh exciting. We're back to the unsubstantiated rumours phase

is_that_so

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Someone on Reddit Ireland ran some numbers

This is like the original projected 15,000 cases, only if nothing changes.

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

Last 7 days admissions (11-17th July):
ICU: +2
Hospital: +9

7 days before that (4-10th July):
ICU: +1
Hospital: +6

Definitely ticking upward. I know discharges are increasing so there's less people in hospital/ICU, but the admissions are on an upward trend.

What was the previous weeks? You cant identify a trend with two data points

Wolf359f

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The only place that's actually seen an increase in the last week is the Mater in Dublin. 7 in hospital there (out of 13 nationwide) and everywhere else besides UHW (2) is either empty or has 1.

Connolly, Sligo, Letterkenny, Navan & Kilkenny Hospitals, all had admissions to hospital in the past 7 days. It's not just the Matter.

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

He's not a doctor but he said the doctors there are worried based on what they see on telly basically

At the end of they day doctors are not epidemiologists or statisticians and are subject to the same cognitive biases as everyone else. Added to the this the real fear of returning to an April type situation and you can see how they might be more afraid than most

Renjit

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's fairly common sense that pubs closed = more house parties, which is the problem.

House parties crowd will be limited. Pubs will be free for all even if you consider the contact details will be maintained. The responsibility to follow the rules falls on people.

ACitizenErased

Wolf359f wrote: »

Connolly, Sligo, Letterkenny, Navan & Kilkenny Hospitals, all had admissions to hospital in the past 7 days. It's not just the Matter.

Letterkenny, Navan, Kilkenny are all empty. Connolly and Sligo have 1 each.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

Again.

We weren't testing care home staff last week.

There is 32,000 staff to be tested every week for 4 weeks.

Rate of positive tests is unchanged however

ShineOn7

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

Ooooh exciting. We're back to the unsubstantiated rumours phase

I'm a regular poster on these threads, not some randomer who registered today

I said our Airports were too wide open over 3 weeks ago


It's totally upto you what you do with the information. Ignore it, listen to it or whatever

I'm passing on what was said to me in a phone call by a friend who works in a major hospital and who isn't fond of hyperbole

PS - as already mentioned, I hope he's completely wrong. Maybe they're just mentally gearing their staff up for 200 cases a day just in case things continue to rise

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

At the end of they day doctors are not epidemiologists or statisticians and are subject to the same cognitive biases as everyone else. Added to the this the real fear of returning to an April type situation and you can see how they might be more afraid than most

I think it's more a case of let's brace ourselves for what may not happen.