Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

polesheep

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Letterkenny, Navan, Kilkenny are all empty. Connolly and Sligo have 1 each.

No, no, get with the flow and make some stuff up. It's much more fun than facts and figures.

stephenjmcd

Boggles wrote: »

Again.

We weren't testing care home staff last week.

There is 32,000 staff to be tested every week for 4 weeks.

We were testing care home staff last week. That testing is underway 2 weeks now. Its visible in the HSE testing data, you can see the data where targeted testing kicked off again.

This is from 30th June, quite visible when targeted referals started up. Note they're referals as care settings had to put staff forward for testing on a weekly basis.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/integrated-information-service-testing-and-contact-tracing-dashboard-30-june-2020.pdf

Polar101

mean gene wrote: »

ill make nothing of it because its rubbish

I'm not saying we will have 200 cases in 3 weeks, or whether there was a meeting or not.

But.. which do you think is a better way to run a hospital?

1) Make preparations in case there is an increase of Covid patients
2) Do nothing, because it is rubbish

is_that_so

is_that_so wrote: »

This is like the original projected 15,000 cases, only if nothing changes.

And only if 1.8 is an accurate R number. I thought 1.2 to 1.8 was the range with a best estimate of 1.4. At 1.2 we would be at 49 cases, at 1.4 at 66. That’s a different story, and the rolling average is much less than 34

JJJackal

Deleted User wrote: »

At the end of they day doctors are not epidemiologists or statisticians and are subject to the same cognitive biases as everyone else. Added to the this the real fear of returning to an April type situation and you can see how they might be more afraid than most

Some doctors are qualified epidemiologists and statisticians.

I suspect alot of public health doctors would be competent in stats and qualified in epidemiology for example

Polar101

stephenjmcd wrote: »

9,500 tests in 24hrs is extremely high.

So 26 postives, where has 34 come from then because its been fairly accurate since the weekend back log was processed through

Maybe by the next pandemic they'll come up with a reporting system that doesn't look like the data comes from different systems, this denotifying and delayed reporting stuff isn't the best.

Wolf359f

Deleted User wrote: »

What was the previous weeks? You cant identify a trend with two data points

Previous 3 weeks went from:
ICU: +3 +1 +3
Hospital: +6 +6 +9
I know they are small increases, but by the time you see a definite trend, it's probably already too late.

JJJackal

JJJackal wrote: »

Some doctors are qualified epidemiologists and statisticians.

I suspect alot of public health doctors would be competent in stats and qualified in epidemiology for example

Some.

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

Previous 3 weeks went from:
ICU: +3 +1 +3
Hospital: +6 +6 +9
I know they are small increases, but by the time you see a definite trend, it's probably already too late.

In that case it’s far from a trend. It’s remarkably stable

GeorgeBailey

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'm a regular poster on these threads, not some randomer who registered today

I said our Airports were too wide open over 3 weeks ago


It's totally upto you what you do with the information. Ignore it, listen to it or whatever

I'm passing on what was said to me in a phone call by a friend who works in a major hospital and who isn't fond of hyperbole

PS - as already mentioned, I hope he's completely wrong. Maybe they're just mentally gearing their staff up for 200 cases a day in Ireland just in case things continue to rise

Regular poster or not it's still an unsubstantiated rumour from an anonymous internet user and everyone reading it should treat it with a large amount of scepticism in the absence of anything to back it up.

stephenjmcd

Polar101 wrote: »

Maybe by the next pandemic they'll come up with a reporting system that doesn't look like the data comes from different systems, this denotifying and delayed reporting stuff isn't the best.

Issue there is none of the HSE systems before this were connected. Each hosptial has its own IT system and even at that some of the systems they use are stupidly outdated. Then seems to be delays between data moving from each location to HSE and then HSE to HPSC.

Should be 1 central reporting mechanism.

Wolf359f

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Letterkenny, Navan, Kilkenny are all empty. Connolly and Sligo have 1 each.

I mean they had admissions over the week. If admissions increase, you can kind of assume cases outside of hospital is increasing.
Just because at the end of the week there's no covid patience doesn't mean they didn't have admissions over the week.
At the moment the number of discharges per week is greater than admissions. But if it gets to a point that admissions are greater than discharges.... then the hospitals won't stay empty for long.

podgeandrodge

I'll be called thick, but I don't get this - if it's not a concern why the advice not to:

Dr Glynn again urged people to holiday at home. However, Dr Glynn said they would not be "unduly concerned, from a public health perspective" about someone going to and from countries on the new 'Green List' - due to be published on Monday.

"Our message remains, though, for people to avoid all non-essential travel."

owlbethere

I thought the 34 cases we had the other day was going to be a once off so seeing today's figure of 32 is very disappointing. Is there a history in todays figures? Is there any community transmissions occurring?

JP Liz V1

I need some Xanax

JP Liz V1

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I'll be called thick, but I don't get this - if it's not a concern why the advice not to:

Dr Glynn again urged people to holiday at home. However, Dr Glynn said they would not be "unduly concerned, from a public health perspective" about someone going to and from countries on the new 'Green List' - due to be published on Monday.

"Our message remains, though, for people to avoid all non-essential travel."

It's got to work both ways, ban non essential inbound travel too

Glynn seems to be different in his views to Gascun and the government

bb1234567

IS there a breakdown released about the origin/cause of the cases today?

ZX7R

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I'll be called thick, but I don't get this - if it's not a concern why the advice not to:

Dr Glynn again urged people to holiday at home. However, Dr Glynn said they would not be "unduly concerned, from a public health perspective" about someone going to and from countries on the new 'Green List' - due to be published on Monday.

"Our message remains, though, for people to avoid all non-essential travel."

Because the green list is not a holiday list.
It's simply to provide travel between countries where essential travel would be deemed necessary without the need to self isolate on return.
The chances of you contracting covid in theses countries would be no greater than catching it here or even less.

podgeandrodge

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I'll be called thick, but I don't get this - if it's not a concern why the advice not to:

Dr Glynn again urged people to holiday at home. However, Dr Glynn said they would not be "unduly concerned, from a public health perspective" about someone going to and from countries on the new 'Green List' - due to be published on Monday.

"Our message remains, though, for people to avoid all non-essential travel."

ZX7R wrote: »

Because the green list is not a holiday list.
It's simply to provide travel between countries where essential travel would be deemed necessary without the need to self isolate on return.
The chances of you contracting covid in theses countries would be no greater than catching it here or even less.

Yep, I get that. But it still seems to me to be a contradiction in terms that you would say you have no concerns with travel to these countries, and as you say, no greater chance of catching it, but telling you to avoid any non essential travel.

Eod100

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Yep, I get that. But it still seems to me to be a contradiction in terms that you would say you have no concerns with travel to these countries, and as you say, no greater chance of catching it, but telling you to avoid any non essential travel.

I'm not sure is it part political, want people to spend money here instead of travelling abroad

ACitizenErased

owlbethere wrote: »

I thought the 34 cases we had the other day was going to be a once off so seeing today's figure of 32 is very disappointing. Is there a history in todays figures? Is there any community transmissions occurring?

We get none of this info tbh

DevilsHaircut

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Yep, I get that. But it still seems to me to be a contradiction in terms that you would say you have no concerns with travel to these countries, and as you say, no greater chance of catching it, but telling you to avoid any non essential travel.

It's because NPHET can't really be seen to be in direct conflict with the government when asked by journalists yesterday about the 'green' list.

This is especially so for civil servants such as Ronan Glynn; hence Cillian de Gascún was able to be more forthright today.

NPHET's stance is and has been clear: the public health advice is don't travel for non-essential reasons (anywhere).

ZX7R

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Yep, I get that. But it still seems to me to be a contradiction in terms that you would say you have no concerns with travel to these countries, and as you say, no greater chance of catching it, but telling you to avoid any non essential travel.

But there is no one telling anyone to travel to anywhere on the green list when released.
But if you have an essential need to travel
Family death.
Family birth.
Medical reasons.
Repatriation.
Work.
Business necessities.
It would be nice to know you don't have to self isolate on your return

Boggles

stephenjmcd wrote: »

We were testing care home staff last week. That testing is underway 2 weeks now. Its visible in the HSE testing data, you can see the data where targeted testing kicked off again.

This is from 30th June, quite visible when targeted referals started up. Note they're referals as care settings had to put staff forward for testing on a weekly basis.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/integrated-information-service-testing-and-contact-tracing-dashboard-30-june-2020.pdf

Sorry I meant in the last 3 weeks, that's why we have been doing so many tests.

Proactive testing of care homes based on the best practice.

There is also proactive testing in hospitals. e.g you need an negative test to get a procedure done, the hospitals are pretty full again.

The virus is moving out of these environments and back out into the community where it was more or less suppressed.

There is no data to suggest that increased testing in the community has led to more cases.

Unless you have some?

NPHET at no stage has said that the increase in incidents of the virus is down to more testing.

What they have said is they are in a precarious position, because it trending up, 55% up on the last 14 days.

When they say precarious they mean they don't know which way the virus will go.

We could be grand, we could be introducing more restrictions, we will know for sure in 3-4 weeks.

pc7

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I need some Xanax

If the schools don’t open come September I’ll be asking doc for some!

podgeandrodge

ZX7R wrote: »

But there is no one telling anyone to travel to anywhere on the green list when released.
But if you have an essential need to travel
Family death.
Family birth.
Medical reasons.
Repatriation.
Work.
Business necessities.
It would be nice to know you don't have to self isolate on your return

I hear what you are saying. But there are people saying there is no concerns with such travel. And if there are no concerns with such travel, the virus doesn't give a crap about whether it's "essential" or not.

Boggles

We cop on to travel after Wave 2, just before Wave 3.

We are just trying to get our heads around masks now, literally.

stephenjmcd

Boggles wrote: »

Sorry I meant in the last 3 weeks, that's why we have been doing so many tests.

Proactive testing of care homes based on the best practice.

There is also proactive testing in hospitals. e.g you need an negative test to get a procedure done, the hospitals are pretty full again.

The virus is moving out of these environments and back out into the community where it was more or less suppressed.

There is no data to suggest that increased testing in the community has led to more cases.

Unless you have some?

NPHET at no stage has said that the increase in incidents of the virus is down to more testing.

What they have said is they are in a precarious position, because it trending up, 55% up on the last 14 days.

When they say precarious they mean they don't know which way the virus will go.

We could be grand, we could be introducing more restrictions, we will know for sure in 3-4 weeks.

I'm fully aware of proactive testing and why we have so many tests. Its been on going in hospitals for some time. The last 24hrs are if I recall the highest number of tests or close to highest since testing in these settings got underway.

There has been quite a large increase in the last 3/4 days of cases associated with healthcare workers, ACitizenErased has these numbers, i dont keep track of them myself but its not a small number at all.

This would suggest that the proactive testing is finding cases we might not otherwise have found.

Not disagreeing with you by the way but the numbers relating to healthcare workers do suggest the targeted testing is picking up more cases.

Boggles

pc7 wrote: »

If the schools don’t open come September I’ll be asking doc for some!

If we just listened to Eamon Ryan we would have Wolves back in Ireland.

We could just send our kids off to be raised by them.

Eod100

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I hear what you are saying. But there are people saying there is no concerns with such travel. And if there are no concerns with such travel, the virus doesn't give a crap about whether it's "essential" or not.

Of course it doesn't but it's still about managing the numbers that go. Because risk just isn't being in another country, it's travelling there on a plane with others for period of time, travelling and naturally interacting with others there. If it's for a holiday chances are people would have a few drinks and say potentially interact with others from other countries so could let their guard down while on holiday mode.

If it was NPHET's advise they would still advise against all non-essential travel but this seems to be minor compromise from the government

Boggles

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I'm fully aware of proactive testing and why we have so many tests. Its been on going in hospitals for some time. The last 24hrs are if I recall the highest number of tests or close to highest since testing in these settings got underway.

There has been quite a large increase in the last 3/4 days of cases associated with healthcare workers, ACitizenErased has these numbers, i dont keep track of them myself but its not a small number at all.

This would suggest that the proactive testing is finding cases we might not otherwise have found.

Absolutely, but more testing especially in these environments should lead to less instances of the virus (eventually).

But NPHET are not really worried about these environments, they are now worried about spread in the community, because they can say whatever soundbites they like but they have very little control over this, it's down to the will of the people and when you hear GPs saying that people who should go for a test are not bothering, alarm bells start ringing.

ZX7R

Boggles wrote: »

Sorry I meant in the last 3 weeks, that's why we have been doing so many tests.

Proactive testing of care homes based on the best practice.

There is also proactive testing in hospitals. e.g you need an negative test to get a procedure done, the hospitals are pretty full again.

The virus is moving out of these environments and back out into the community where it was more or less suppressed.

There is no data to suggest that increased testing in the community has led to more cases.

Unless you have some?

NPHET at no stage has said that the increase in incidents of the virus is down to more testing.

What they have said is they are in a precarious position, because it trending up, 55% up on the last 14 days.

When they say precarious they mean they don't know which way the virus will go.

We could be grand, we could be introducing more restrictions, we will know for sure in 3-4 weeks.

Tony Holohan alluded that he was worried about the very thing you mentioned,
He said he was worried about the virus getting back into the community for hospital and or health care institutes with the relaxing of restrictions.
I always thought it would be the other way around

Boggles

On a positive note, I was out and about earlier, and from I saw the majority of people are now wearing masks, hopefully that turns in the the vast majority soon.

If anything it will be a constant visual reminder that the global pandemic isn't over and it doesn't take very much to go backwards.

JP Liz V1

Boggles wrote: »

If we just listened to Eamon Ryan we would have Wolves back in Ireland.

We could just send our kids off to be raised by them.

If we listened to him we might hear him snore

lukas8888

Polar101 wrote: »

I'm not saying we will have 200 cases in 3 weeks, or whether there was a meeting or not.

But.. which do you think is a better way to run a hospital?

1) Make preparations in case there is an increase of Covid patients
2) Do nothing, because it is rubbish

Fair enough,but were they all not Covid ready 4 months ago.

Go Home Paddy Cat!!

YellowBucket wrote: »

The impression in getting is a lot of people aren’t taking it seriously anymore as they assumed it was just going to trend towards zero and that would be it.

That’s not what’s happening. It trailed along at low numbers and as soon as we lifted restrictions it has begun to start tending back up again.

I don’t get the sense that most people were taking that much heed of the fact that we need to manage the reopening.

I know these are anecdotal but my observations of last few days in Cork City / Suburbs:

1. Very little mask wearing until this week and it’s still very much a minority. I’ve Asian colleagues who were totally shocked at how lax we were about it.

2. Hand sanitiser not always present at entrances to shops anymore. It was totally universal a few weeks ago. In finding its not there or it’s not being replenished. (I carry my own).

3. Social distancing isn’t happening reliably at all. I was in supermarkets, shops, cafes and all sorts of places and a very significant % of customers aren’t bothered.

4. High contact surfaces all over the place. Just as an example, one cafe I went into (locally run not a multinational) is using shared milk jugs. So hundreds of people are picking those up and touching them all day. I’m not seeing much evidence of anyone really knowing what they’re up to. I’ve seen the same in service stations and motorway services on way to and from Dublin.

5. Abundance of poor efforts / lack of expertise when it comes to planning spaces. I was in a few shops where social distancing efforts were actually doing the complete opposite and were causing people to bump into each other due to the way they had laid out queues.

All in all I think our efforts are mixed and often fairly sloppy. I know lots of people are making huge effort but a lot really aren’t.

6. I think there’s a lot of absorbing of Americans anti mask and anti reality stuff online. I’m hearing garbage information being regurgitated in real life, not just on twitter. We speak English, we are on the same social media. It’s inevitable.

I’m just shocked at the number of people I’ve spoken to who are under the assumption that it was somehow cured by the lockdown. Maybe that’s miscommunication? Maybe it’s people hearing what they want to hear? I don’t know, but it’s not helping.

Im posting on page 666 of this thread... oh jaysus.

Anyway...

Was in a large store today and shag all people were wearing face masks. Then on the way home, a bus pulled up beside me in traffic and one arsehole on the bus was sitting there with his mask pulled down below his chin.. I was dumbfounded. Then I realised that expending energy being wound up by the apathy of others is futile and that the only important thing that matters is keeping myself safe. So what if numbers go up? Ill continue getting on with my life in a way that keeps me and the people around me, safe. The only people I feel for are our health care workers who will have to deal with the ramifications of the actions of these obstinate plebs, who choose not to follow simple guidelines.

Ill never forget part 1 of the covid documentary on RTE1 when I witnessed poor Joe in ICU being induced into a 12 coma after he caught covid.

I'll never forget lovely nurse Emma at the end saying ahe could never go through this ordeal again.

Those are images that will stay with me forever.

Non solum non ambulabit

Ok so if we are doing 9,500 tests in a day what is the false positive rate of these tests? It's possible that if 10k non infected people were tested some would come back positive.

Is my logic correct?

I know there will also be false negatives but we are really at the margins when we have 34 positives out of almost 10k tests.

Spanish Eyes

I am no saint, but am observing all the rules as best I can.

However when out and about there is very little heed being taken of social distancing and mask wearing in shops for example. I did venture out to Aldi a few weeks ago and it was very organised. Now, it's a free for all, and I also have a Dunnes and Supervalu too, same thing.

Back to online with SuperValu so. They have nice things has to be said, and if you ain't got anywhere to go really, well spend it on nice things.

Amazon have been very bad with deliveries to ROI, but I think that's improving a bit now. I would love there to be a portal for Irish companies online, someone should do it. It's a right pain to have to trawl through every website separately. Might even introduce competition if all similar goods are priced.

I think the time of being totally browned off has arrived. I am not a quitter, am hoping for the best, but honestly any glimmer of hope is turned to dust next day, and off we go again.

ixoy

Boggles wrote: »

On a positive note, I was out and about earlier, and from I saw the majority of people are now wearing masks, hopefully that turns in the the vast majority soon.

Really? Where was this and was it indoors or outdoors? It's not anything I've seen and didn't reflect the city centre as it was on Wednesday.

JP Liz V1

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Well who'd have thought our capital and most populated city would have the most cases? It's like that's where a load of people live. Didn't take Poirot to solve that one.

Pink Panther solved

ACitizenErased

YellowBucket wrote: »

The impression in getting is a lot of people aren’t taking it seriously anymore as they assumed it was just going to trend towards zero and that would be it.

That’s not what’s happening. It trailed along at low numbers and as soon as we lifted restrictions it has begun to start tending back up again.

I don’t get the sense that most people were taking that much heed of the fact that we need to manage the reopening.

I know these are anecdotal but my observations of last few days in Cork City / Suburbs:

1. Very little mask wearing until this week and it’s still very much a minority. I’ve Asian colleagues who were totally shocked at how lax we were about it.

2. Hand sanitiser not always present at entrances to shops anymore. It was totally universal a few weeks ago. In finding its not there or it’s not being replenished. (I carry my own).

3. Social distancing isn’t happening reliably at all. I was in supermarkets, shops, cafes and all sorts of places and a very significant % of customers aren’t bothered.

4. High contact surfaces all over the place. Just as an example, one cafe I went into (locally run not a multinational) is using shared milk jugs. So hundreds of people are picking those up and touching them all day. I’m not seeing much evidence of anyone really knowing what they’re up to. I’ve seen the same in service stations and motorway services on way to and from Dublin.

5. Abundance of poor efforts / lack of expertise when it comes to planning spaces. I was in a few shops where social distancing efforts were actually doing the complete opposite and were causing people to bump into each other due to the way they had laid out queues.

All in all I think our efforts are mixed and often fairly sloppy. I know lots of people are making huge effort but a lot really aren’t.

6. I think there’s a lot of absorbing of Americans anti mask and anti reality stuff online. I’m hearing garbage information being regurgitated in real life, not just on twitter. We speak English, we are on the same social media. It’s inevitable.

I’m just shocked at the number of people I’ve spoken to who are under the assumption that it was somehow cured by the lockdown. Maybe that’s miscommunication? Maybe it’s people hearing what they want to hear? I don’t know, but it’s not helping.

Which part of Cork is this? I've been in Mahon Point and Douglas Court in the last week and most are distancing and wearing masks.

Icantthinkof1

I went to our local shop there (urban area) counted 7 of us in the shop. 5 were wearing masks- only 2 weren’t.
At this stage I’d wear a bridle and reins if it helped

Boggles

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

I know there will also be false negatives but we are really at the margins when we have 34 positives out of almost 10k tests.

It doesn't matter if today produced one positive or a 100.

They look at 5/7/14 day trends.

They are all trending upwards.

If it continues we will have 40-50 next week, 50-70 the week after and then any number below 200 either in week 3 or 4. (rough maths)

We are then back to national restrictions.

If we can stop it trending up, and got back to something like

Monday 14
Tueday 27
Wednesday 9
Thursday 19
Friday 25

We should be grand.

Some countries in Europe had a bit of a spike after opening and settled down again, unfortunately they all had mandatory mask usage long before they opened up.

Every country will be unique in some way.

JP Liz V1

Besides many tourists, Dingle also has a funfair, I thought these with circus and festivals would be a big no no

Non solum non ambulabit

Boggles wrote: »

It doesn't matter if today produced one positive or a 100.

They look at 5/7/14 day trends.

They are all trending upwards.

If it continues we will have 40-50 next week, 50-70 the week after and then any number below 200 either in week 3 or 4. (rough maths)

We are then back to national restrictions.

If we can stop it trending up, and got back to something like

Monday 14
Tueday 27
Wednesday 9
Thursday 19
Friday 25

We should be grand.

Some countries in Europe had a bit of a spike after opening and settled down again, unfortunately they all had mandatory mask usage long before they opened up.

Every country will be unique in some way.

I agree and I understand all this. I am interested in understanding the level of false positives based on increased testing. If we took an entirely unaffected population and tested them at an increasing rate each day the number of positive tests would also increase proportionately each day despite the fact that zero people were infected.

It is something to consider in my opinion and interested in people's thoughts.

Gruffalux

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

I went to our local shop there (urban area) counted 7 of us in the shop. 5 were wearing masks- only 2 weren’t.
At this stage I’d wear a bridle and reins if it helped

BringBackMick

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

I agree and I understand all this. I am interested in understanding the level of false positives based on increased testing. If we took an entirely unaffected population and tested them at an increasing rate each day the number of positive tests would also increase proportionately each day despite the fact that zero people were infected.

It is something to consider in my opinion and interested in people's thoughts.

I was thinking about this also. Surely with 10,000 tests there are going to be false positives, but i guess the false negatives and false positives would negate eachother?

I don't know if there has been a study on any bias in the numbers.

Anyway, the fact that almost 10,000 tests were carried out in last 24 hours and we had about 30 cases is very good really and absolutely nothing to be scared about.

Ficheall

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

At this stage I’d wear a bridle and reins if it helped

PM sent.

Boggles

BringBackMick wrote: »

Anyway, the fact that almost 10,000 tests were carried out in last 24 hours and we had about 30 cases is very good really and absolutely nothing to be scared about.

No one is concerned with 30 cases in one day.

The concern is with the trend.

Ficheall

BringBackMick wrote: »

I was thinking about this also. Surely with 10,000 tests there are going to be false positives, but i guess the false negatives and false positives would negate eachother?

I don't know if there has been a study on any bias in the numbers.

Anyway, the fact that almost 10,000 tests were carried out in last 24 hours and we had about 30 cases is very good really and absolutely nothing to be scared about.

The false negatives won't cancel out the false positives when things are so disproportionate. Eg - if positives and negatives were both equally likely to be false (say 10%), if you had 1000 actually positive cases and 100 actually negative cases, you'd expect 100 false negatives and only 10 false positives.


This is an oversimplification, obviously, but it illustrates why falses won't catch each other out, all other things being equal.