Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Wolf359f

Boggles wrote: »

It doesn't matter if today produced one positive or a 100.

They look at 5/7/14 day trends.

They are all trending upwards.

If it continues we will have 40-50 next week, 50-70 the week after and then any number below 200 either in week 3 or 4. (rough maths)

We are then back to national restrictions.

If we can stop it trending up, and got back to something like

Monday 14
Tueday 27
Wednesday 9
Thursday 19
Friday 25

We should be grand.

Some countries in Europe had a bit of a spike after opening and settled down again, unfortunately they all had mandatory mask usage long before they opened up.

Every country will be unique in some way.

We can't stop it trending up next week unfortunately. As the acting CMO said, the seeds for next weeks numbers have already been sown.
I'm hoping it's just a blip, trying to stay a little positive.

ShineOn7

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

At this stage I’d wear a bridle and reins if it helped

I remember the great days of Boards when we'd all be riding each other (mid to late 2000s)

But I don't think now is a great time for a revival

JP Liz V1

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

I went to our local shop there (urban area) counted 7 of us in the shop. 5 were wearing masks- only 2 weren’t.
At this stage I’d wear a bridle and reins if it helped

ROTFL

What ever you are into

is_that_so

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I'll be called thick, but I don't get this - if it's not a concern why the advice not to:

Dr Glynn again urged people to holiday at home. However, Dr Glynn said they would not be "unduly concerned, from a public health perspective" about someone going to and from countries on the new 'Green List' - due to be published on Monday.

"Our message remains, though, for people to avoid all non-essential travel."

Only travel if you have to but we're OK with the Green List if you do.

Sierra Oscar

GPs warn of surge in cases in Dublin presenting with Covid symptoms

The number of people in Dublin presenting with Covid-like symptoms is approaching figures similar to March before the surge happened, a well-known GP has warned.

Dr Maitiu O Tuathail, former president of the National Association of General Practitioners (NAGP), said he referred 12 patients for Covid testing on Friday morning.

Worrying, to say the least.

Martina1991

Non solum non ambulabit wrote:

If we took an entirely unaffected population and tested them at an increasing rate each day the number of positive tests would also increase proportionately each day despite the fact that zero people were infected.

Why would a group of uninfected people suddenly test positive in increasing numbers. That doesn't make sense.

PCR testing is incredibly sensitive and specific. Bits of RNA called primers are added to each sample and will only bind to the RNA specific to SARS-CoV-2. The chances of getting a false positive are extremely minimal.

Icantthinkof1

Ficheall wrote: »

PM sent.

Haha skitting! I draw the line at wearing a saddle though, I have my limits!
On a serious note some people’s minds here are in the gutters; for shame!!

Gruffalux

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

GPs warn of surge in cases in Dublin presenting with Covid symptoms



Worrying, to say the least.

Apparently we are to pay no attention at all to Maitiù, because he has glamorous notions of himself. So I read in this thread anyway.

Away With The Fairies

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

GPs warn of surge in cases in Dublin presenting with Covid symptoms



Worrying, to say the least.

That's only 1 GP as well.

That and people are waiting a few days before going for testing. The problem with waiting is that it's harder to pick up positives.

God knows what the true rate of infection is.

Non solum non ambulabit

Martina1991 wrote: »

Why would a group of uninfected people suddenly test positive in increasing numbers. That doesn't make sense.

Thanks. For example a false positive rate of 1% will have one positive in 100 tests but 10 positives in 1000 tests.

The thesis is that a million tests will get more false positives than a thousand tests. So as testing increases the extremely minimal chances of false positives also increase.

It may be nothing but it is something I was thinking about earlier in the increased testing discussions.

stephenjmcd

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

That's only 1 GP as well.

That and people are waiting a few days before going for testing. The problem with waiting is that it's harder to pick up positives.

God knows what the true rate of infection is.

Had a look at his twitter earlier and there were replies from other GPs in Dublin saying they aren't seeing similar. Other people replying saying they've a test tomorrow and they've hayfever symptoms.

You really do have to wonder what GPs are referring on. I've said it here before my own GP is literally offering anyone a test who wants one

Away With The Fairies

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Had a look at his twitter earlier and there were replies from other GPs in Dublin saying they aren't seeing similar. Other people replying saying they've a test tomorrow and they've hayfever symptoms.

You really do have to wonder what GPs are referring on. I've said it here before my own GP is literally offering anyone a test who wants one

I hope you're right and it's just hayfever but you can't be too safe.

stephenjmcd

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I hope you're right and it's just hayfever but you can't be too safe.

To be honest with you I've had hayfever for the last few years and this summer has by far been the worst, first time I've asked the doctor to give me something on prescription because the over the counter stuff was doing nothing.

But yeah seems to be if you contact a GP with anything they'll send you on.

Not sure if they're still getting paid my the state for each referral, they were at the start.

SeaBreezes

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Had a look at his twitter earlier and there were replies from other GPs in Dublin saying they aren't seeing similar. Other people replying saying they've a test tomorrow and they've hayfever symptoms.

You really do have to wonder what GPs are referring on. I've said it here before my own GP is literally offering anyone a test who wants one

As they should?

Spanish Eyes

I've heard the test is not too pleasant. Anyone confirm. Maybe people are putting it off because of the nature of the test, I dunno.

Be right back

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I've heard the test is not too pleasant. Anyone confirm. Maybe people are putting it off because of the nature of the test, I dunno.

I have it done and I didn't find it too bad. The throat part was the worst for me as I was trying not to gag!

Thierry12

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Thanks. For example a false positive rate of 1% will have one positive in 100 tests but 10 positives in 1000 tests.

The thesis is that a million tests will get more false positives than a thousand tests. So as testing increases the extremely minimal chances of false positives also increase.

It may be nothing but it is something I was thinking about earlier in the increased testing discussions.

If we are performing 10,000 tests a day and 26 are positive

That's 99.76% negative, but tests are generally 95-99% specific?

We have very little cases in this country if thats true?

Some of those 26 cases today are for sure false positives or even worse false negatives?

In private nursing homes, nurses themselves that work at the homes are now performing the tests

Not HSE employees

They have no proper training with these tests

ednwireland

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I hope you're right and it's just hayfever but you can't be too safe.

Heavy rain seems to whip more pollen up into the air
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190510-five-myths-and-truths-about-hayfever

funny that I only ever get bad hay fever symptoms when theres heavy rain. never knew that was even a thing. been desperate this summer.

Spanish Eyes

Be right back wrote: »

I have it done and I didn't find it too bad. The throat part was the worst for me as I was trying not to gag!

That's not pleasant is it, but has to be done. Does the throat part take long if you don't mind me asking. And of course hope you are ok too.

mandrake04

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Thanks.

The thesis is that a million tests will get more false positives than a thousand tests. So as testing increases the extremely minimal chances of false positives also increase.

It may be nothing but it is something I was thinking about earlier in the increased testing discussions.

The only way you get a false positive in PCR is contamination by human error, there is always a chance that can happen if someone for example had used a contaminated transfer pipette or poured off into the wrong tube if they are manually pooling or handling but most of the equipment they use is automated and using disposable tips.

False negative is often from inadequate sample or mis-sample at time of collection, this is mainly down to the patient not presenting virus at the specific test site (eg. throat) at the time of testing.

Be right back

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

That's not pleasant is it, but has to be done. Does the throat part take long if you don't mind me asking. And of course hope you are ok too.

Over and done in no time. Just try not to gag as they will just have to keep doing it!! Negative result, thanks.

anplaya27

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I've heard the test is not too pleasant. Anyone confirm. Maybe people are putting it off because of the nature of the test, I dunno.

Test is grand. People are just hyping it up. Takes less than a minute altogether.

stephenjmcd

ednwireland wrote: »

Heavy rain seems to whip more pollen up into the air
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190510-five-myths-and-truths-about-hayfever

funny that I only ever get bad hay fever symptoms when theres heavy rain. never knew that was even a thing. been desperate this summer.

Good few seem to be saying the same, this summer is the worst its been for me in the last few years

mandrake04

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I've heard the test is not too pleasant. Anyone confirm. Maybe people are putting it off because of the nature of the test, I dunno.

I have had 4 tests, I found they vary depending on the collector. Some tested both nose and throat and the the other 2 was just nose.

I also found one of the ones that tested nose only my eyes didn't water as much and was wondering did she push it in far enough to get good enough sample.

The other ones they pushed it in right to the back and it was a few minutes before I could drive.

ACitizenErased

In the comments of yer mans tweet there’s a Cork GP saying she hasn’t referred many at all in the last few weeks.
Another is a Dublin woman who has been referred for hayfever.
Realistically anyone who calls the doctor and says they have sniffles is gonna be assumed covid-positive, and the doctor will report as such.

Non solum non ambulabit

mandrake04 wrote: »

The only way you get a false positive in PCR is contamination by human error, there is always a chance that can happen if someone for example had used a contaminated transfer pipette or poured off into the wrong tube if they are manually pooling or handling but most of the equipment they use is automated and using disposable tips.

False positive is often from inadequate sample or mis-sample at time of collection, this is mainly down to the patient not presenting virus at the specific test site (eg. throat) at the time of testing.

Thanks for that ðŸ‘

Santy2015

Is 10 the lowest we’ve had in hospital??
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-2000-17-july-2020.pdf

Snow Garden

ednwireland wrote: »

Heavy rain seems to whip more pollen up into the air
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190510-five-myths-and-truths-about-hayfever

funny that I only ever get bad hay fever symptoms when theres heavy rain. never knew that was even a thing. been desperate this summer.

Very interesting, thanks. I do notice my allergies are worse during rain.

DevilsHaircut

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Had a look at his twitter earlier and there were replies from other GPs in Dublin saying they aren't seeing similar. Other people replying saying they've a test tomorrow and they've hayfever symptoms.

I don't see anything from a Dublin GP saying their experience is different.

https://twitter.com/springheeledji1/status/1284238697676840961

https://twitter.com/louisemaried/status/1284122314657890304

https://twitter.com/WalleyRay/status/1283386206965858304

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In the comments of yer mans tweet there’s a Cork GP saying she hasn’t referred many at all in the last few weeks.
Another is a Dublin woman who has been referred for hayfever.
Realistically anyone who calls the doctor and says they have sniffles is gonna be assumed covid-positive, and the doctor will report as such.

and you've others saying no noticeable increase for them.

https://twitter.com/ConorTMcGrane/status/1284144708797816833?s=19

stephenjmcd

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

I don't see anything from a Dublin GP saying their experience is different.

https://twitter.com/springheeledji1/status/1284238697676840961

https://twitter.com/louisemaried/status/1284122314657890304

https://twitter.com/WalleyRay/status/1283386206965858304

sorry was on Richard chambers retweet of it

https://twitter.com/ConorTMcGrane/status/1284144708797816833?s=19

little bess

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In the comments of yer mans tweet there’s a Cork GP saying she hasn’t referred many at all in the last few weeks.
Another is a Dublin woman who has been referred for hayfever.
Realistically anyone who calls the doctor and says they have sniffles is gonna be assumed covid-positive, and the doctor will report as such.

Yes was just looking, Cork gp saying maybe it’s a Dublin thing, another gp agreeing with Dr Maithilu, seeing an increase in requests, and another woman who works at gp surgery also saying an increase.

We’ll see soon enough how it plays out.

Edit: ah see above

xvril

Its been just under two weeks since bars all around the the country were rammed full. Maybe these doctor calls are as a result of this.

DevilsHaircut

mandrake04 wrote: »

The only way you get a false positive in PCR is contamination by human error, there is always a chance that can happen if someone for example had used a contaminated transfer pipette or poured off into the wrong tube if they are manually pooling or handling but most of the equipment they use is automated and using disposable tips.

False positive is often from inadequate sample or mis-sample at time of collection, this is mainly down to the patient not presenting virus at the specific test site (eg. throat) at the time of testing.

False negative. Also caused by inadequate swabbing.

But it's much more frequent than a false positive for the reasons you outline.

stephenjmcd

Santy2015 wrote: »

Is 10 the lowest we’ve had in hospital??
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-2000-17-july-2020.pdf

10 in general beds and 8 in ICU tonight.

Those 10 and 8 are definitely separate as vincents reporting 1 in ICU and said case not reflective in the 10.

I think 18 in total is the lowest yet, open to correction

mandrake04

Nijmegen wrote: »

One assumes they have some modelling guided by trends in other countries as well as leading indicators (like tests requested) to indicate its gonna go up next week based on what we did last week and this and whether it comes back down is based on what we do this week and next. So trying to warn the public to take it seriously before it’s serious looking.

There’s real inertia with this stuff, it’s more like trying to steer a ferry than a race car.

This is good example of how easy it can get out of hand, you have fairly low numbers then slight fluctuations then bang!

State of Victoria pop 6.3m (Melbourne 4.9m) 7 day moving average tests 25K per day

Jun 7 - 4
Jun 8 - 2
Jun 9 - 0
Jun 10 - 4
Jun 11 - 10
Jun 12 - 4
Jun 13 - 8
Jun 14 - 9
Jun 15 - 12
Jun 16 - 9
Jun 17 - 21
Jun 18 - 18
Jun 19 - 13
Jun 20 - 25
Jun 21 - 19
Jun 22 - 16
Jun 23 - 17
Jun 24 - 20
Jun 25 - 33
Jun 26 - 30
Jun 27 - 41
Jun 28 - 49
Jun 29 - 75
Jun 30 - 64
Jul 1 - 73
Jul 2 - 77
Jul 3 - 66
Jul 4 - 108
Jul 5 - 74
Jul 6 - 127
Jul 7 - 191
Jul 8 - 134
Jul 9 - 165

ACitizenErased

stephenjmcd wrote: »

10 in general beds and 8 in ICU tonight.

Those 10 and 8 are definitely separate as vincents reporting 1 in ICU and said case not reflective in the 10.

Don't think they're seperate. 1 in CUH left ICU the other day and was removed from that list and has now been cleared from the overall list days later. Some hospitals just aren't reporting the total and instead reporting just ICU.

stephenjmcd

Of the 10 in general hosptial beds tonight confirmed covid, 8 are in Dublin, 6 in the Mater, 1 in Connolly & 1 Tallaght.

Sligo and UHW with 1 each.

Also reflected in ICU of the 8 cases confirmed covid 6 are in Dublin. Sligo and Mercy with 1 case each in ICU.

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Don't think they're seperate. 1 in CUH left ICU the other day and was removed from that list and has now been cleared from the overall list days later. Some hospitals just aren't reporting the total and instead reporting just ICU.

its confusing, especially seeing as vincents report 1 in ICU but none in the overall figure so I took that as confirmation they were separate.

Either way hospitals dealing with very low case numbers of either 18 or 10

DevilsHaircut

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In the comments of yer mans tweet there’s a Cork GP saying she hasn’t referred many at all in the last few weeks.
Another is a Dublin woman who has been referred for hayfever.
Realistically anyone who calls the doctor and says they have sniffles is gonna be assumed covid-positive, and the doctor will report as such.

So we're now scouring the replies to tweets by the frontline that we don't like for evidence of disagreement?

Funny how the 'data analysts' who are full-time on this thread keep track of and try to squash empirical accounts from people far more qualified and invested in the outcome than they are.

ACitizenErased

stephenjmcd wrote: »

its confusing, especially seeing as vincents report 1 in ICU but none in the overall figure so I took that as confirmation they were separate.

Either way hospitals dealing with very low case numbers of either 18 or 10

Exactly yeah.


On a side note great to see the CUH finally empty tonight, whoever was in ICU there was there for a long time and was moved out the other day

ACitizenErased

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

So we're now scouring the replies to tweets by the frontline that we don't like for evidence of disagreement?

Funny how the 'data analysts' who are full-time on this thread keep track of and try to squash empirical accounts from people far more qualified and invested in the outcome than they are.

You wanna believe some tweets and not others? How do you decide which to believe?

DevilsHaircut

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You wanna believe some tweets and not others? How do you decide which to believe?

The story has been published in the Irish Times.

But please carry on looking for Twitter replies that support your position.

It just smacks of desperation.

https://twitter.com/IrishTimes/status/1284231612113260546

Martina1991

stephenjmcd wrote:

its confusing, especially seeing as vincents report 1 in ICU but none in the overall figure so I took that as confirmation they were separate.

I always thought they were separate.

If i remember correctly there was one day the number of hospitalised and ICU patients were both 11. I dont think all our hospitalised patients were exclusively in ICU.

ACitizenErased

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

The story has been published in the Irish Times.

But please carry on looking for Twitter replies that support your position.

It just smacks of desperation.

https://twitter.com/IrishTimes/status/1284231612113260546

I think I'll pass on the social media star doctor.

ACitizenErased

Fascinating thing to look back on, this is the HSE report from the peak of hospitalisations on the 14th of April. 884 people in hospital at 2pm that day.
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-20-00-14-april-2020.pdf

stephenjmcd

Martina1991 wrote: »

I always thought they were separate.

If i remember correctly there was one day the number of hospitalised and ICU patients were both 11. I dont think all our hospitalised patients were exclusively in ICU.

Thats the way I always took it to be but even recently in the press conferences they've just said number of people in hosptial is x.

No idea anymore but I'm taking them as separate

JP Liz V1

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I hope you're right and it's just hayfever but you can't be too safe.

Pollen has been high so Hayfever bad

mandrake04

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

False negative. Also caused by inadequate swabbing.

But it's much more frequent than a false positive for the reasons you outline.

Sorry I meant to write false Negative there as its often a mis-sample, I corrected it now

Spanish Eyes

You know what, at this stage I wait to see what happens next week or in a few days time, sometimes the news is very positive, but then again it rebounds back to caution, careful, rising numbers. What a rollercoaster.

Quite browned off now. But what can I do. I suppose it is the same gig for many too.