Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

stephenjmcd

caveat emptor wrote: »

Fair play, we need more people data literate.

I haven't had much faith in the "data" early on. The continual changes in testing criteria etc massively undercut the actual numbers early on.
The 48 hour lag which allowed leaders to look as though they were preemptive when in fact there was a lag to the general public etc.

Situation much better now. I'm concerned about asymptotic spread and the incubation period. This thing can get out of control fast. Hopefully won't be the case.

Yeah I'd fully agree in terms of having faith in the data at the start, there was no set reporting time, one day we might be told we've x amount of cases from 11am yesterday until 9am this morning and then the next day get a different timeline completely. Its improved since it moved to a 24hr period to be reported on the next day. Then as you mention testing criteria changed practically once a week. Still seems to be issues on how reporting moves through between HSE, HPSC & Dept of Health but I suppose that's to be expected when none of their internal systems are linked in any way.

But overall they release much more data now than back in March and to be fair if theres ever a query raised at the press conferences they do come back with it within a few days.

Yeah asymptomatic didn't get much attention back in March, but you'd have to assume the majority of the population would be more aware now and change behaviour as a result. Even in terms of symptomatic I know myself previously if I had a sniffle or just a cough I'd have gone about my day as normal, gone to work, the gym, out to football at the weekend and a few pints. Won't be doing anything like that, when winter comes any sign of a head cold or any symptom similar I'll be self isolating and contacting my GP as a precaution.

At this stage alot rests of personal responsibility

YellowBucket

I think we also have to accept that when this kicked off we were reacting to an unfolding emergency much like you would deal with a natural disaster. The systems had to be put in place. There were a lot of unknowns and serious difficulty in getting test kits, equipment and so on due to global panic.

We've a lot more in place, particularly in testing capacity. There should now be a stockpile of PPE and we are a lot more familiar with what we're dealing - medics, policy makers and also the general population.

Renjit

fritzelly wrote: »

I think the more important question is what did you have for dinner?

Some spam.

fritzelly

YellowBucket wrote: »

I think we also have to accept that when this kicked off we were reacting to an unfolding emergency much like you would deal with a natural disaster. The systems had to be put in place. There were a lot of unknowns and serious difficulty in getting test kits, equipment and so on due to global panic.

We've a lot more in place, particularly in testing capacity. There should now be a stockpile of PPE and we are a lot more familiar with what we're dealing - medics, policy makers and also the general population.

Outside of some of the Asian countries nobody was prepared for a viral pandemic

Arghus

YellowBucket wrote: »

I think we also have to accept that when this kicked off we were reacting to an unfolding emergency much like you would deal with a natural disaster. The systems had to be put in place. There were a lot of unknowns and serious difficulty in getting test kits, equipment and so on due to global panic.

We've a lot more in place, particularly in testing capacity. There should now be a stockpile of PPE and we are a lot more familiar with what we're dealing - medics, policy makers and also the general population.

What worries me is our health system's capacity to cope. We're more prepared in some ways, but we had a lot of spare and extra capacity right back at the start of this that simply isn't there now.

Strumms

I play an old generic yet addictive game on my iPad called ‘bricks breaker’ from time to time, i hadn’t noticed any adds before but just now between games, an add popped up, actually from the Licensed Vintners Association, encouraging, no sorry demanding the reopening of pubs... I didn’t screen shot it and it disappeared but it was the headline and two elderly gentleman gazing lovingly into each other’s eyes while embracing , you couldn’t make this **** up.

YellowBucket

Arghus wrote: »

What worries me is our health system's capacity to cope. We're more prepared in some ways, but we had a lot of spare and extra capacity right back at the start of this that simply isn't there now.

It also wasn't there at the start of it. I think most of us were quite shocked at how rapidly the hospitals were and more so the A&Es were sitting almost empty.

No health system has the capacity to cope with this, as we are seeing all over the world when you get a really big outbreak.

I mean we ended up putting all sorts of stuff on hold, and you'll have had less than optimal outcomes for people who missed out on surgeries, missed out on access to diagnostics and so on.

If we get a major outbreak again, we risk that all over again as hospitals can't really turn down urgent COVID-19 cases and it also introduced a huge layer of problems in hospitals as all sorts of stuff has to be done with enormous amounts of precaution and use of PPE that was never required before. That's slowing everything down.

So, basically from a public health point of view, if we have another outbreak on that kind of scale or worse, we are going to suffer serious consequences.

That's why the medical advisors are so cautious. It's far beyond the direct impact of COVID-19 itself, it's the fact that it could mean the whole health system goes into chaos.

If you watch the USA over the next few weeks, that's exactly what you're going to see happen there. The capacity of all systems is pretty much designed around normal demands and most Western and developed world systems are also far more geared toward dealing with things like cancer care, cardiac care, etc not what basically look like early 20th century fever ward conditions.

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

Outside of some of the Asian countries nobody was prepared for a viral pandemic

I don't think taking it seriously counts as being prepared. Any country could have taken it seriously. In fact, a certain country I often talk about openly said it was its lack of preparedness and extra capacity that prompted such an immediate response to nip it in the bud.

For over six weeks, I was posting here as one of the only people directly affected because I was out of work because of it, and there was a load of talk about how it might only affect Asian people and how it would never reach Ireland. All the chat was conspiracy theories and fake videos about China.

It was a far away Asian problem and I don't think it taking over four months longer to mandate masks in say supermarkets can be blamed on lack of preparedness. Except for socially perhaps.

YellowBucket

YellowBucket wrote: »

If we get a major outbreak again, we risk that all over again as hospitals can't really turn down urgent COVID-19 cases and it also introduced a huge layer of problems in hospitals as all sorts of stuff has to be done with enormous amounts of precaution and use of PPE that was never required before. That's slowing everything down.

Another of Ireland's major mistakes. Such a tiny country could have easily put everyone infected in one smaller hospital. A quarantine hospital.

Vietnam had a few hospitals around the country for it and it alone. If an infected person even walked into another hospital, the whole place was locked down and everyone tested. 9,000 people from Bach Mai hospital I think at one point were traced and tested after a couple of nurses were found to have had it.

fritzelly

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't think taking it seriously counts as being prepared. Any country could have taken it seriously. In fact, a certain country I often talk about openly said it was its lack of preparedness and extra capacity that prompted such an immediate response to nip it in the bud.

For over six weeks, I was posting here as one of the only people directly affected because I was out of work because of it, and there was a load of talk about how it might only affect Asian people and how it would never reach Ireland. All the chat was conspiracy theories and fake videos about China.

It was a far away Asian problem and I don't think it taking over four months longer to mandate masks in say supermarkets can be blamed on lack of preparedness. Except for socially perhaps.

But some countries had been through this with SARS etc - they had procedures and policies they could initiate immediately - also helps that those countries could also adopt regulations that are not easily enforceable in most other countries

Countries are now better prepared for the future (one would hope) in knowing what they need to do and not get tangled up in legal loopholes

MOR316

Reading this thread...

****ing hell, I'm afraid to go to Dublin tomorrow now for dinner and a few pints

caveat emptor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't think taking it seriously counts as being prepared. Any country could have taken it seriously. In fact, a certain country I often talk about openly said it was its lack of preparedness and extra capacity that prompted such an immediate response to nip it in the bud.

For over six weeks, I was posting here as one of the only people directly affected because I was out of work because of it, and there was a load of talk about how it might only affect Asian people and how it would never reach Ireland. All the chat was conspiracy theories and fake videos about China.

It was a far away Asian problem and I don't think it taking over four months longer to mandate masks in say supermarkets can be blamed on lack of preparedness. Except for socially perhaps.

Whatever the origins of this thing we should look at how to effectively deal with it. The most ‘successful’ country in the world that had a large outbreak was China. Especially on a per capita basis.

We just just copy them to deal with it instead of trying to reinvent the wheel. Wearing a mask doesn’t affect how much oxygen you breath in. Not sure use a pulse oximeter and it will show you no effect.

It’s funny how personal liberties are the thing preventing society getting back to normal.

fritzelly

caveat emptor wrote: »

We just just copy them to deal with it instead of trying to reinvent the wheel. Wearing a mask doesn’t affect how much oxygen you breat in. Not sure use a pulse oximetry and it will show you now effect..

LOL never thought of that and have one, will test it tomorrow - only had occasion to wear one once and found it very uncomfortable and a feeling of not getting enough oxygen

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

But some countries had been through this with SARS etc - they had procedures and policies they could initiate immediately - also helps that those countries could also adopt regulations that are not easily enforceable in most other countries

Countries are now better prepared for the future (one would hope) in knowing what they need to do and not get tangled up in legal loopholes

I see what you're trying to say but it's mid-July and we still have posters here talking about going on holiday to Spain and that. If stopping that sort of thing isn't in the arsenal of a country's response to a pandemic, it really should be.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

It’s funny how personal liberties are the thing preventing society getting back to normal.

Yeah, it's incredibly ironic.

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

LOL never thought of that and have one, will test it tomorrow - only had occasion to wear one once and found it very uncomfortable and a feeling of not getting enough oxygen

And you're right!

Still feels uncomfortable having something suck into your mouth almost - guess you get used to it if you wear it enough

Wolf359f

Deleted User wrote: »

Another of Ireland's major mistakes. Such a tiny country could have easily put everyone infected in one smaller hospital. A quarantine hospital.

Vietnam had a few hospitals around the country for it and it alone. If an infected person even walked into another hospital, the whole place was locked down and everyone tested. 9,000 people from Bach Mai hospital I think at one point were traced and tested after a couple of nurses were found to have had it.

Do we actually have a hospital with 884 beds and 147 ICU beds sitting idle?
That's just the figures we had hospitalized, add to that we had 9,000 positive cases at that time (14th April) you want quarantined.

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

Do we actually have a hospital with 884 beds and 147 ICU beds sitting idle?
That's just the figures we had hospitalized, add to that we had 9,000 positive cases at that time (14th April) you want quarantined.

Well starting with one would have helped a lot imo and I was really surprised when that didn't happen. No reason to have nurses dealing with Covid-19 patients even being in the same building as nurses who aren't.

mandrake04

Deleted User wrote: »

I see what you're trying to say but it's mid-July and we still have posters here talking about going on holiday to Spain and that. If stopping that sort of thing isn't in the arsenal of a country's response to a pandemic, it really should be.

Yeah, if you are on a sinking ship and you ask everyone on board to bail out the water it makes more sense to maybe plug the holes first.

I understand some people might be out of pocket a few euros regarding booked holidays, but seriously there are people who have lost their jobs, livelihoods, relatives and lives let’s put it into perspective. Does the country need a bunch of retards swanning off to Spain or anywhere else on holiday? the result is a very grim Christmas period.

Wolf359f

Deleted User wrote: »

Well starting with one would have helped a lot imo and I was really surprised when that didn't happen. No reason to have nurses dealing with Covid-19 patients even being in the same building as nurses who aren't.

Didn't they start with the Matter, our national infectious disease hospital?
I mean they specialize in infectious diseases. But that filled up quickly.

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

Didn't they start with the Matter, our national infectious disease hospital?
I mean they specialize in infectious diseases. But that filled up quickly.

If everyone else was cleared out of the Mater, then fair enough. I didn't think that happened from reading about it.

podgeandrodge

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

I'm neither outraged nor surprised, given that this thread appears to be the closely guarded property of a couple of posters, who are intent on spending all day defending it.

I expect them to make a discreet exit (as the plumber did) when the stats say something they disagree with.

In all fairness, there are a lot of people on here, with views that are completely opposite and somewhere in between. Your view that one side has the upper hand is ridiculous. I'm sure both sides and those in the middle get as pissed off as everyone else with the views they read

That's the nature of good debate. As it should be.

Wolf359f

Deleted User wrote: »

If everyone else was cleared out of the Mater, then fair enough. I didn't think that happened from reading about it.

Well if the matter had 800+ beds and 150+ ICU beds, then yes, they should have sent all patients there.

JacksonHeightsOwn

rubbledoubledo wrote: »

Just back from Killarney after visiting my sister. Lots of Tourists there. No one wearing masks. I see one minibus taxi, 7 guys got out in front of the Plaza hotel, no one wearing a mask including the driver. Drove up the Main Street, fair share of Americans there, lots of English Regs in the carparks, fairly shocked now , no one with masks, to be honest just 2 people with a mask on. Wait for it guys

My brother was in dingle last week and was shocked at the attitude of the locals. No social distancing, no masks, simply nothing.

He was told quite a few times that it was just a "Dublin thing" and it wasn't down there.

I'm still pissed off at these numbers, and no denying people are taking less and less precautions now. But we could have a little less cloak and dagger from the government regarding the locations, age profiles and general information on the positives they're finding.

We're just being drip fed negativity after negativity, it's not good for anyone.

One of the weirdest things is though. Of my circle of friends, I still don't know one single person that has had it. Not one 🀔

podgeandrodge

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Had a look at his twitter earlier and there were replies from other GPs in Dublin saying they aren't seeing similar. Other people replying saying they've a test tomorrow and they've hayfever symptoms.

You really do have to wonder what GPs are referring on. I've said it here before my own GP is literally offering anyone a test who wants one

I went to another pub (i.e not my local) tonight and decided to walk there (4km). Unfortunately the dreaded hayfever took over and I wasn't prepared for the sudden sneezes that occurred on the open road. No worries, but felt a bit paranoid!

But when I got to the pub, the noise levels were literally crazy from young people roaring and shouting - I've been in the camp of thinking that if we are in a pub we should have 'toned down' conversation to respect others and prevent the 'choir' effect. Unfortunately that wasn't going to happen and I had to raise my own voice to talk to my friend right beside me. Background music piped through didn't help - and that is something that should not happen as it raises volumes unnecessarily.

But inevitably I enjoyed my night and as the pints went down I forgot about the noise levels. I'm not saying pubs should be closed, and I intend to go to them on a regular basis. But a bit of common sense from some people would be appreciated.

Wolf359f

chrisbonnie wrote: »

My brother was in dingle last week and was shocked at the attitude of the locals. No social distancing, no masks, simply nothing.

He was told quite a few times that it was just a "Dublin thing" and it wasn't down there.

I'm still pissed off at these numbers, and no denying people are taking less and less precautions now. But we could have a little less cloak and dagger from the government regarding the locations, age profiles and general information on the positives they're finding.

We're just being drip fed negativity after negativity, it's not good for anyone.

One of the weirdest things is though. Of my circle of friends, I still don't know one single person that has had it. Not one ��

I know right, in my circle of friends I don't know anyone to be killed in a car accident, to overdose, none are drug addicts, none have been convicted of a crime, none have HIV, none died of cancer, none drown, none even died of natural causes. It's all a fake, we're invincible.
Yeah that's sarcasm.

caveat emptor

fritzelly wrote: »

And you're right!

Still feels uncomfortable having something suck into your mouth almost - guess you get used to it if you wear it enough

Yeah I tend to be.... Great. Yeah there is a lot of misinformation. Got to test stuff for yourself where you can.

It is uncomfortable for sure but it won't kill you. I think misinformation is piggy backing on the government's original lie on masks. " they don't work " when in fact there was a supply issue. I didn't think they would make it mandatory but glad they did.

If it comes out of America and is based on some personal liberty .....question it.
Hopefully we can get it under control.

mandrake04

chrisbonnie wrote: »

I'm still pissed off at these numbers, and no denying people are taking less and less precautions now. But we could have a little less cloak and dagger from the government regarding the locations, age profiles and general information on the positives they're finding.

We're just being drip fed negativity after negativity, it's not good for anyone.

”

The numbers today are only relevant 10-14 days ago, the numbers week after next are only relevant today. This thing is like Aircraft flying-by-wire with a serious delay built into every movement.

podgeandrodge

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Source?

Other than your fellow full-time 'data analyst', who handily presented you with a misattributed source after getting the OP/tweet source wrong.

IDK why you're so obsessed with trawling the internet and posting anything that contradicts the actual facts.


https://twitter.com/DrZeroCraic/status/1284103814568607745

"It’s really starting to feel like March 2020 all over again 🚨

Getting an alarming increase in requests for covid testing + it’s trending upwards

My day so far has been all Covid related - for the first time in weeks

It’s worrying 😓"

Seriously, for a doctor to say that, twitter taking over good judgement.

Wolf359f

mandrake04 wrote: »

The numbers today are only relevant 10-14 days ago, the numbers week after next are only relevant today. This thing is like Aircraft flying-by-wire with a serious delay built into every movement.

It's like driving a car, but the steering wheel has no effect on the next corner, it only effects the corner after that, that you can't see. And no the racetrack isn't a circle/oval

cashflow9452

Hello.Can anyone refer to this?
On daegel.com I found information about the population of Ireland in 2025.
Depopulation? 1.3 million WTF?

I can't paste the website address for regulatory reason

quartz1

We have Tourists arriving in unrestricted. We will have Irish people arriving back from Holidays. I hope it all continues to go well but if we are to be asked to take a steel backward then those responsible for the lack.of a action at this very time should be put under severe scrutiny.. I take no pleasure in saying this and I am not.politically motivated however I have little confidence in the new Govenemnts handling thud far and by the same token Sinn Fein and Labour should be more vocal in holding them to account

ParkRunner

quartz1 wrote: »

We have Tourists arriving in unrestricted. We will have Irish people arriving back from Holidays. I hope it all continues to go well but if we are to be asked to take a steel backward then those responsible for the lack.of a action at this very time should be put under severe scrutiny.. I take no pleasure in saying this and I am not.politically motivated however I have little confidence in the new Govenemnts handling thud far and by the same token Sinn Fein and Labour should be more vocal in holding them to account

This is a time for unity and leadership, not political squabbling. Mistakes will be made but attention needs to be directed to getting through this first

schmoo2k

fritzelly wrote: »

LOL never thought of that and have one, will test it tomorrow - only had occasion to wear one once and found it very uncomfortable and a feeling of not getting enough oxygen

Really - mine you just click on your finger, its not even much of a pinch?

Jim_Hodge

schmoo2k wrote: »

Really - mine you just click on your finger, its not even much of a pinch?

I think they meant the mask.

Onesea

The testing increased then cases detected increased.
R number known to be unreliable as numbers are low used by head is state to instill wory.
Irish government admits numbers are massively overinflated, why was that?
The UK are doing similar, if you have ever had c19 in the UK and die from another ailment c19 will be the cause of death irrigardless.
Some labs in the US have been shown to be jigging the figures.
The kawasaki illness effecting children, more fear mongering.
Who waiting 3 months to declare a pandemic.
Countries waiting to control the "virus" before telling people to wear a mask.
Would love to know who instructs the media producers in virgin media Ireland.

Field east

Why is the media Now not reporting on the daily/weekly death notices in the US and the UK. It’s very telling that Trump has directed all death figures to be directed through a committee that is chaired by Pence - the VP. Surely there are nursing unions in these countries that are in a position to issue their own numbers and publish them.

PowerToWait

Onesea wrote: »

The testing increased then cases detected increased.
R number known to be unreliable as numbers are low used by head is state to instill wory.
Irish government admits numbers are massively overinflated, why was that?
The UK are doing similar, if you have ever had c19 in the UK and die from another ailment c19 will be the cause of death irrigardless.
Some labs in the US have been shown to be jigging the figures.
The kawasaki illness effecting children, more fear mongering.
Who waiting 3 months to declare a pandemic.
Countries waiting to control the "virus" before telling people to wear a mask.
Would love to know who instructs the media producers in virgin media Ireland.

I never get why so many Irish and Brits buy into this Russian sponsored American right wing conspiracy stuff.

PowerToWait

Field east wrote: »

Why is the media Now not reporting on the daily/weekly death notices in the US and the UK. It’s very telling that Trump has directed all death figures to be directed through a committee that is chaired by Pence - the VP. Surely there are nursing unions in these countries that are in a position to issue their own numbers and publish them.

See the post above yours. The whole thing is a hoax. Bill Gates, 5G, satanic worship, drain the swamp, Epstein, blah blah.

Onesea

Onesea wrote: »

The testing increased then cases detected increased.
R number known to be unreliable as numbers are low used by head is state to instill wory.
Irish government admits numbers are massively overinflated, why was that?
The UK are doing similar, if you have ever had c19 in the UK and die from another ailment c19 will be the cause of death irrigardless.
Some labs in the US have been shown to be jigging the figures.
The kawasaki illness effecting children, more fear mongering.
Who waiting 3 months to declare a pandemic.
Countries waiting to control the "virus" before telling people to wear a mask.
Would love to know who instructs the media producers in virgin media Ireland.

yosemitesam1

PowerToWait wrote: »

I never get why so many Irish and Brits buy into this Russian sponsored American right wing conspiracy stuff.

Where is the conspiracy in any of that post?

Tasfasdf

PowerToWait wrote: »

I never get why so many Irish and Brits buy into this Russian sponsored American right wing conspiracy stuff.

Russian sponsored American right wing stuff, Lol I think it's you that's got the conspiracy stuff in your head. That sounds so stupid to say out loud hahaha

is_that_so

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

GPs warn of surge in cases in Dublin presenting with Covid symptoms



Worrying, to say the least.

12 patients , TWELVE!

Widdensushi

Wolf359f wrote: »

I know right, in my circle of friends I don't know anyone to be killed in a car accident, to overdose, none are drug addicts, none have been convicted of a crime, none have HIV, none died of cancer, none drown, none even died of natural causes. It's all a fake, we're invincible.
Yeah that's sarcasm.

You must live a very sheltered life

is_that_so

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In the comments of yer mans tweet there’s a Cork GP saying she hasn’t referred many at all in the last few weeks.
Another is a Dublin woman who has been referred for hayfever.
Realistically anyone who calls the doctor and says they have sniffles is gonna be assumed covid-positive, and the doctor will report as such.

That doctor is something of a self-publicist and dare I say a Covigilante.

ninebeanrows

is_that_so wrote: »

12 patients , TWELVE!

12 patients going for tests and our test positivity rate is stable at 0.3%!
Doom merchants all around

is_that_so

Wolf359f wrote: »

I think all the caution coming from Government and the media is basically, we need to change our habits NOW and not wait and see in a week. Because in a weeks time it will be too late.
Back in March many criticized the Government for not acting quicker with lock down measures, now people feel they are acting too fast or being too negative.

It's more like taking aim at high risk groups or groups who would be more inclined to take risks. That for now is the "yoof". The current R0 is driving it too. If it falls back then it's more like the German blip but they are taking no chances. Floating a possible return to phase 2 is a nice move as well. No threats no fines, just shut it all back down.

is_that_so

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

12 patients going for tests and our test positivity rate is stable at 0.3%!
Doom merchants all around

It's no more than poster reports here on compliance, pure anecdote. TBF that doctor is a known quantity and very alarmist but the IT should no better than use him as an authority.

LiquidZeb

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

12 patients going for tests and our test positivity rate is stable at 0.3%!
Doom merchants all around

No guarantee that any of the 12 actually have covid as well. The cold and flu haven't gone extinct and hay fever season is still ongoing.

Widdensushi

is_that_so wrote: »

12 patients , TWELVE!

That has to be a gdpr breach, he can't have had many more patients Friday morning so it will be out there that anyone seen at his surgery has covid