Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

An Ciarraioch

ACitizenErased wrote: »

County data:
Cork +2
Donegal +1
Dublin +12
Galway +2
Kildare +3
Mayo +1

And good to see Gov.ie have updated their statements to add changes in that data, rather than requiring the reader to trawl back a day:

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/9248f-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-sunday-19-july/

is_that_so

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Zero deaths today.

10 additional cases

Is it a case of a blip in cases, like Germany I wonder, enough to give R0 a good nudge?

ACitizenErased

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And good to see Gov.ie have updated their statements to add changes in that data, rather than requiring the reader to trawl back a day:

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/9248f-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-sunday-19-july/

I saw! They're listening

hmmm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And good to see Gov.ie have updated their statements to add changes in that data, rather than requiring the reader to trawl back a day:

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/9248f-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-sunday-19-july/

The transmission stats in the above - is that a cumulative total from all cases? Not very useful if so. A 14 day average or something similar would be more informative.

I think in general people would appreciate more stats on where the spread is occurring. I'm sure they must have stats like these in their internal metrics, it would be educational for the public also.

ACitizenErased

hmmm wrote: »

The transmission stats in the above - is that a cumulative total from all cases? Not very useful if so. A 14 day average or something similar would be more informative.

I think in general people would appreciate more stats on where the spread is occurring. I'm sure they must have stats like these in their internal metrics, it would be educational for the public also.

The transmission stats are incredibly unreliable, they jump up and down in hundreds or so (based on the percentages) every few days.

Beanybabog

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Zero deaths today.

10 additional cases

I teared up a bit when I saw this post. (Disclaimer: am pregnant and probably a bit emotional! But it’s a good thing to read)

Rob A. Bank

thelad95 wrote: »

Ah lads we're nearly four months down the road since this strted and people still talking about a "Sunday effect".

Labs, testing and reporting takes place seven days a week there is no lag just because it's the weekend.

Distribution of laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 19 July 2020



The 'weekend effect' is very obvious in the 7 day sawtooth pattern of daily reported cases in Europe, as it has been seen since the pandemic started.

Maybe things are different in Ireland.

Larger clickable version here :- https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

YellowBucket

I'm always a bit iffy about Sunday reports. Let's hope this is a sharply downward trend over the next few days.

Ineedaname

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Absolutely correct, we don't and couldn't know that immunity only lasts a few months at this early stage.

A study of SARS immunity showed that immunity lasted for 2 to 3 years.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/

There is also a suggestion that t cell immunity could last much longer.

Some day, people might do some research before posting

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

A recent study in Singapore that showed people infected by SARS in 2003 still possess virus specific T-cells. A full 17 years later.

Whether or not that would offer full immunity is debatable but they would definitely have some protection.

Non solum non ambulabit

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Distribution of laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 19 July 2020



The 'weekend effect' is very obvious in the 7 day sawtooth pattern of daily reported cases in Europe, as it has been seen since the pandemic started.

Maybe things are different in Ireland.

Larger clickable version here :- https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

It is different in Ireland

Rob A. Bank

“Americans from 26 states — more than half of the country — should not be traveling right now, according to the Harvard Global Health Institute’s risk-assessment map…

According to the USA CDC guidelines, you should reconsider traveling if COVID-19 is spreading where you live. “Even if you don’t have symptoms, you can spread COVID-19 to others while traveling,” says the CDC’s travel page.”

Their own CDC says they should not travel… but guess which country in Europe accepts them with open arms !

And just look at their figures plus their rate of increase and compare them to our 4.9 !



Everyone of the yanks, who ignore our 14 day self isolation rule, is playing russian roulette with our country's bio security.

We appear to have been lucky so far, but very few russian roulette players have a long lifespan.

Gruffalux

Interesting article. Research led from Ireland and Denmark. Drop in rates of premature babies being born over lockdown, in some cases dramatic drops in rates. Happened in many places worldwide though not universally. Could possibly be as a result of extra rest, more family support and less stress on pregnant women.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/19/health/coronavirus-premature-birth.html

Rob A. Bank

Ineedaname wrote: »

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

A recent study in Singapore that showed people infected by SARS in 2003 still possess virus specific T-cells. A full 17 years later.

Whether or not that would offer full immunity is debatable but they would definitely have some protection.

On the other hand, the immunity induced by the human coronaviruses which cause the common cold lasts less than a year on average.

Time is the only thing which will tell how long the immunity to Covid-19 lasts.

Bit cynical

Daily new cases generally rising in Ireland for the last 2.5 weeks so though from a very low level. This coincides with phase 3 reopening at the end of June. The recent guidelines on masks may curb this rise if people take heed.

podgeandrodge

Can they not breakdown the Community transmission a bit and tell people who is getting it from where? They know this now surely? Ot is it already published somewhere?

ACitizenErased

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Can they not breakdown the Community transmission a bit and tell people who is getting it from where? They know this now surely? Ot is it already published somewhere?

Community transmission = they dont know where they get it from

podgeandrodge

ok duh sorry yes! Not thinking. I guess I meant that they would have some ideas of the likely locations but perhaps not!

Apart from house parties and karoke microphones!

JP Liz V1

podgeandrodge wrote: »

ok duh sorry yes! I guess I meant that they would have some ideas of the likely locations but perhaps not!

Apart from house parties and karoke microphones!

Is karaoke still a thing, probably yes more now in house parties

Strumms

Strazdas wrote: »

Some people are very claustrophobic and hate the feeling of anything covering their mouth. Their distress is real.

It will be very fûckin real if it’s an oxygen mask as opposed to a covid mask.

US2

Strumms wrote: »

It will be very fûckin real if it’s an oxygen mask as opposed to a covid mask.

You do realise the tiny, tiny percentage of the population that needed an oxygen mask. Do you have this level of fear going for a walk or spin in your car or bike, because your more likely to end up on life support or dead doing that

Micky 32

YellowBucket wrote: »

I'm always a bit iffy about Sunday reports. Let's hope this is a sharply downward trend over the next few days.

Well just compare results to previous Sundays from when it all began.

Danzy

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Worth nothing also the previous Sundays before weekend lag is mentioned. We'll only know if there is any lag once testing figures are released

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1284887012500213762?s=19

Very true but at least they are lagging in the right direction.

YellowBucket

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is karaoke still a thing, probably yes more now in house parties

With the right setup - separate booths and a whole lot of cleaning, Karaoke could be extremely safe. It might not be much fun though.

Gruffalux

US2 wrote: »

You do realise the tiny, tiny percentage of the population that needed an oxygen mask. Do you have this level of fear going for a walk or spin in your car or bike, because your more likely to end up on life support or dead doing that

Last year 150 people died on Irish roads, including those in cars, plus pedestrians and cyclists.

ShineOn7

Always_Running wrote: »

By my count 143 cases the last 7 days which works out as 20 cases a day. 2 less deaths than last week also.

Thanks for those stats

Does anyone know how this compares to last week and the week before/

I think weekly trends are what we should be looking at. Daily ones are too erratic

ShineOn7

US2 wrote: »

You do realise the tiny, tiny percentage of the population that needed an oxygen mask.

What % of those in Ireland needed oxygen treatment?

What % of those in Ireland needed ventalation treatment?

niallo27

Why no mention of this famous R number when the cases decrease in the media, it was the buzz word the start of the week and now have we just forgotten about it.

Jim_Hodge

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Thanks for those stats

Does anyone know how this compares to last week and the week before/

I think weekly trends are what we should be looking at. Daily ones are too erratic

7 day average :
12th July = 15
5th July = 13
28th June = 8

Micky 32

niallo27 wrote: »

Why no mention of this famous R number when the cases decrease in the media, it was the buzz word the start of the week and now have we just forgotten about it.

I noticed on the news this eve after the 10 cases were revealed the focus was then put on the we’re all doomed over 14 million worldwide cases.

ShineOn7

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

7 day average :
12th July = 15
5th July = 13
28th June = 8

Thanks

So we're at 20 on average a day now and were at just 8 cases a day three weeks ago

Early signs of exponential growth?

Isn't that how this bástard works? A slow creep up and slow doubling of numbers until there's a massive spike?

podgeandrodge

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is karaoke still a thing, probably yes more now in house parties

Must still be! Thought it was in Dublin, but actually up north:

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/limavady-covid-19-spike-linked-to-microphone-passed-around-at-house-party-karaoke-session-39374670.html

wadacrack

niallo27 wrote: »

Why no mention of this famous R number when the cases decrease in the media, it was the buzz word the start of the week and now have we just forgotten about it.

The 7 day average is rising. It would'nt just take one day of low cases to lower it.

Ficheall

US2 wrote: »

Do you have this level of fear going for a walk or spin in your car or bike, because your more likely to end up on life support or dead doing that

Don't suppose you'd happen to have anything resembling some evidence to back that up, would you?

niallo27

wadacrack wrote: »

The 7 day average is rising. It would'nt just take one day of low cases to lower it.

Why aren't they quoting it so, what is the figure if anyone has it. Of course the numbers are rising we came out of a major lockdown. They went from nearly none a day to almost none a day.

Jim_Hodge

niallo27 wrote: »

Why no mention of this famous R number when the cases decrease in the media, it was the buzz word the start of the week and now have we just forgotten about it.

They don't calculate and announce the R0 on a daily basis, that would be madness.

bb1234567

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-doctor-reinfected-with-coronavirus-3-months-after-recovering-635550

An Israeli Doctor experienced symptoms in April and tested positive, then recovered and tested negative in both May and June. They now have tested positive again in July after close contact with covid patients.The hospital reports two other cases of patients recovering and testing negative and then coming back to the hospital with symptoms and testing positive.

Not worth getting too excited about yet, but something to keep an eye on, it may suggest that immunity only lasts a couple of months for certain individuals.

KathleenGrant

schmoo2k wrote: »

Male or Female friends out of curiosity?

Only one male Rest are female. One person actually said the words
"they'll be telling us to wear yellow stars on our coats yet"
Another great statement:
"My grandfather died in 1916 to guarantee me the freedom to chose"
I tried to tell her her grandfather was on the losing side in 1916 but she was having none of it.

timsey tiger

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

They don't calculate and announce the R0 on a daily basis, that would be madness.

I'm not sure the poster wanted an answer to that question, I think he is just venting a bit of frustration, mustn't have learned to do it when he was two.

timsey tiger

bb1234567 wrote: »

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-doctor-reinfected-with-coronavirus-3-months-after-recovering-635550

An Israeli Doctor experienced symptoms in April and tested positive, then recovered and tested negative in both May and June. They now have tested positive again in July after close contact with covid patients.The hospital reports two other cases of patients recovering and testing negative and then coming back to the hospital with symptoms and testing positive.

Not worth getting too excited about yet, but something to keep an eye on, it may suggest that immunity only lasts a couple of months for certain individuals.

Nothing all over the world for months and now three in one hospital. Only three possibilities I can see:

1. It's an error, most likely imo.

2. It's a lie, also likely.

3. New strain, unlikely.

bb1234567

timsey tiger wrote: »

Nothing all over the world for months and now three in one hospital. Only three possibilities I can see:

1. It's an error, most likely imo.

2. It's a lie, also likely.

3. New strain, unlikely.

Well,I really can't say I know much about this but I will say in most palces in the world their outbreaks were very quickly stopped by lockdowns. So if reinfection may be a real thing, and thats a big if, Israel is probably one of the first places where we would see this occur seeing as it is one of just a few places worldwide which experienced widespread infection twice in two waves. So it's not that surprising it hasnt really been reported anywhere else yet.

Regardless I agree it's more than likely some kind of an error though the length of immunity is still unknown.

niallo27

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

They don't calculate and announce the R0 on a daily basis, that would be madness.

They mentioned it last Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. If the numbers were still increasing they would continue to guesstimate it.

Danzy

niallo27 wrote: »

They mentioned it last Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. If the numbers were still increasing they would continue to guesstimate it.

When it is rising it shows a greater risk to us, that makes it newsworthy.

Human nature is human nature.

niallo27

Danzy wrote: »

When it is rising it shows a greater risk to us, that makes it newsworthy.

Human nature is human nature.

Fair enough.

ShineOn7

I'm keeping an eye on the UAE and what they're doing as I've a family member in Abu Dhabi

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronavirus-pandemic/coronavirus-uae-reports-211-new-covid-19-cases-352-recoveries-1-death

211 cases out of 47,000 tests which I've worked out as 0.45% positivity rate

Given how well the UAE have reacted to this since March (at one stage you needed a permission slip to go shopping) and given that they've a positivity rate of 0.45%, I think Ireland's 0.3% is pretty excellent

The thing is though, they're all but fully back open now. And, after a fresh spike, numbers are coming back down again without the need for another lockdown

I do worry that, given how social the Irish are, if we can manage to get our numbers down again quickly if there's another spike

Boggles

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'm keeping an eye on the UAE and what they're doing as I've a family member in Abu Dhabi

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronavirus-pandemic/coronavirus-uae-reports-211-new-covid-19-cases-352-recoveries-1-death

211 cases out of 47,000 tests which I've worked out as 0.45% positivity rate

Given how well the UAE have reacted to this since March (at one stage you needed a permission slip to go shopping) and given that they've a positivity rate of 0.45%, I think Ireland's 0.3% is pretty excellent

The thing is though, they're all but fully back open now. And, after a fresh spike, numbers are coming back down again without the need for another lockdown

I do worry that, given how social the Irish are, if we can manage to get our numbers down again quickly if there's another spike

Fúcking Hell.

4.5 million tests out of a population of less than 10 million.

Has to be the most accurate data on the planet.

gizmo23

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'm keeping an eye on the UAE and what they're doing as I've a family member in Abu Dhabi

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronavirus-pandemic/coronavirus-uae-reports-211-new-covid-19-cases-352-recoveries-1-death

211 cases out of 47,000 tests which I've worked out as 0.45% positivity rate

Given how well the UAE have reacted to this since March (at one stage you needed a permission slip to go shopping) and given that they've a positivity rate of 0.45%, I think Ireland's 0.3% is pretty excellent

The thing is though, they're all but fully back open now. And, after a fresh spike, numbers are coming back down again without the need for another lockdown

I do worry that, given how social the Irish are, if we can manage to get our numbers down again quickly if there's another spike

Tbh I think it's because of the irish people numbers are so low.... the old adage of it take 100 good things for one person to speak good about you but only take 1 bad thing for a 100 people to speak bad about you rings true....

In my experience irish people by nature are compliment we moan and grumble but we do what's asked. Yes you have the 1% of idiot's but I have very very little doubt that when push comes to shove the irish people will do what's asked.

The pictures on social media are a small minority and yes it sucks but unfortunately you will always have that... it's the same with pushing pubs opening to the 10th I have no doubt that's to avoid the bank holiday the problem is people who were going to act the c##t that weekend will do it a week or two later.

charlie14

Hego Damask wrote: »

At what stage is the cure worse then the disease tho ?
How many people will be homeless, starving, serious mental health issues, suicide rates will skyrocket...

Sweden seem to have had the right idea, overall they are on a gradual decrease, and their death rate is way way less then the likes of Spain and Italy that had very strict lockdowns.

Except it isn`t.
Deaths per 100,000 in Italy are 58.01 and in Spain 60.54.
Sweden is just below Italy at 54.67 and closing that gap.
The other three Nordic countries who used lockdown and have more in common with Sweden. Denmark 10.51, Finland 5.94 and Norway 4.77

timsey tiger

Danzy wrote: »

When it is rising it shows a greater risk to us, that makes it newsworthy.

Human nature is human nature.

The mentioned it a lot as it dropped after the peak too. Mundane reality is they bring it up when it changes significantly up or down.

timsey tiger

Boggles wrote: »

Fúcking Hell.

4.5 million tests out of a population of less than 10 million.

Has to be the most accurate data on the planet.

You'd kind of think that that is a case of too much money and political considerations driving the testing and not actual scientific method.

ShineOn7

Boggles wrote: »

Fúcking Hell.

4.5 million tests out of a population of less than 10 million.

Has to be the most accurate data on the planet.

Where does that article say UAE have done 4.5 million tests? I can't see it

They've said here though that they will test 2 million of their 10 million population over the next 8 weeks https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-emirates/uae-says-it-will-test-2-million-people-for-covid-19-as-cases-rise-idUSKBN2480M5