Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Rob A. Bank

An explanation for the erratic spread of the virus, it is not behaving like flu and other viruses. Superspreading events seem to be very important in it's spread.

Superspreaders: Most people with Coronavirus won’t spread it but why do a few infect so many?

Viruses can multiply to bigger numbers in some people and it’s possible they become virus chimneys, blasting out clouds of pathogens with each breath
.
At a 30 May birthday party in Texas, one man reportedly infected 18 friends and family with the coronavirus.

Reading reports like these, you might think of the virus as a wildfire, instantly setting off epidemics wherever it goes. But other reports tell another story altogether.

In Italy, for example, scientists looked at stored samples of wastewater for the earliest trace of the virus. Last week they reported that the virus was in Turin and Milan as early as 18 December. But two months would pass before northern Italy’s hospitals began filling with victims of COVID-19. So those December viruses seem to have petered out.

As strange as it may seem, these reports don’t contradict each other. Most infected people don’t pass on the coronavirus to someone else. But a small number pass it on to many others in so-called superspreading events.

“You can think about throwing a match at kindling,” said Ben Althouse, principal research scientist at the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Washington. “You throw one match, it may not light the kindling. You throw another match, it may not light the kindling. But then one match hits in the right spot, and all of a sudden the fire goes up.”

Understanding why some matches start fires while many do not will be crucial to curbing the pandemic, scientists say. “Otherwise, you’re in the position where you’re always one step behind the virus,” said Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Wolf359f

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

County figures have been updated on Gov.ie:

Clare -1 (denotified)
Dublin +4
Kildare +1
Leitrim +1
Sligo +3
Waterford +1

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/eb27f-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-wednesday-1-july/

So 1 family coming back to Ireland looks to have infected an additional 13 people. No wonder why the CMO was worried about importing cases.
From new cases last month, 1 in 12 was related to travel, but as with the Sligo cases, it's easy to see how it can spread.

lukas8888

Apologies if the following was covered previously in some other Covid thread but i am unable to find it.My brother had a day case procedure in a private hospital in Galway today.Before he was admitted he had to travel to the hospital on Monday and have a covid test.Fair enough but it cost 100 euros and was told if he was positive they would get in touch.He had a 2 hour hour journey each way both days.He has very expensive private insurance but they are refusing to cover the charge.The charge in my opinion is exorbitant and the private health companies are out of order particularly as they provided no service for three months.Rant over and sorry for straying off topic.

Beanybabog

Did your brother have to pay for a covid test?

fritzelly

lukas8888 wrote: »

Apologies if the following was covered previously in some other Covid thread but i am unable to find it.My brother had a day case procedure in a private hospital in Galway today.Before he was admitted he had to travel to the hospital on Monday and have a covid test.Fair enough but it cost 100 euros and was told if he was positive they would get in touch.He had a 2 hour hour journey each way both days.He has very expensive private insurance but they are refusing to cover the charge.The charge in my opinion is exorbitant and the private health companies are out of order particularly as they provided no service for three months.Rant over and sorry for straying off topic.

Take it up with insurance company - can see why its not covered since it isn't anything to do with a medical condition
Pay for the test or don't get the surgery

That charge is about the norm for the test

Martina1991

SeaBreezes wrote:

It was here in jan. But the tests were ****e. Was a patient in icu in a hospital here in jan, chest issues, kidney damage, ventilated, just home from a town near wuhan, kept in isolation ward never tested positive.

We didnt have the test available in Januaury.

The "sh!te" test we had in the beginning is the same as the one we use now.

Its just been scaled up to capacity with the infrastructure and logistics to support it.

hotmail.com

hotmail.com wrote: »

The ban on American flights won't happen. Ireland too obsessed and subservient to America. Many Irish see us as the 51st state.

It's why a lot of Irish get so animated about Trump. They actually think they're American.

And they need to drop that notion. We'd have a better chance of getting a work Visa from Bangladesh these days than America.

wadacrack

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1278401446300483589

Cork Boy 53

DebDynamite wrote: »

Purely anecdotal, but a friend of mine has a friend who is a doctor in St Vincent’s and they said the week of so after Cheltenham they had a very high number of cases who had been at Cheltenham. This was at the start of the crisis when a lot of cases were hospitalised for observation

Of course. How could it have been otherwise when the floppy haired clown in Downing St and his cronies were during Cheltenham week still encouraging people to "get on with their lives". Still no excuse for all the muppets who travelled over there from Ireland though.

ACitizenErased

Florida has a 15% test positivity rate AND they slowed down testing. Which means that their high numbers right now are not even close to reflecting the actual infection rate. For comparison, today our positivity rate was 0.1%.

fr336

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

An explanation for the erratic spread of the virus, it is not behaving like flu and other viruses. Superspreading events seem to be very important in it's spread.

Superspreaders: Most people with Coronavirus won’t spread it but why do a few infect so many?

Viruses can multiply to bigger numbers in some people and it’s possible they become virus chimneys, blasting out clouds of pathogens with each breath
.
At a 30 May birthday party in Texas, one man reportedly infected 18 friends and family with the coronavirus.

Reading reports like these, you might think of the virus as a wildfire, instantly setting off epidemics wherever it goes. But other reports tell another story altogether.

In Italy, for example, scientists looked at stored samples of wastewater for the earliest trace of the virus. Last week they reported that the virus was in Turin and Milan as early as 18 December. But two months would pass before northern Italy’s hospitals began filling with victims of COVID-19. So those December viruses seem to have petered out.

As strange as it may seem, these reports don’t contradict each other. Most infected people don’t pass on the coronavirus to someone else. But a small number pass it on to many others in so-called superspreading events.

“You can think about throwing a match at kindling,” said Ben Althouse, principal research scientist at the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Washington. “You throw one match, it may not light the kindling. You throw another match, it may not light the kindling. But then one match hits in the right spot, and all of a sudden the fire goes up.”

Understanding why some matches start fires while many do not will be crucial to curbing the pandemic, scientists say. “Otherwise, you’re in the position where you’re always one step behind the virus,” said Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

What if all the anti restrictions people are superspreaders? All us sensible people can go back to enjoying normal life while theyre forced into self isolation :pac:

ShineOn7

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Florida has a 15% test positivity rate AND they slowed down testing. Which means that their high numbers right now are not even close to reflecting the actual infection rate. For comparison, today our positivity rate was 0.1%.

That figure is staggering

I think the closest I've seen come to it is parts of Italy at 10% when it was peaking there

Cork Boy 53

fr336 wrote: »

What if all the anti restrictions people are superspreaders? All us sensible people can go back to enjoying normal life while theyre forced into self isolation :pac:

Very true. Some might say it would be poetic justice too. Karma can be a real bitch.

ACitizenErased

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Very true. Some might say it would be poetic justice too. Karma can be a real bitch.

thats a very nice and mature thing to say

lukas8888

Beanybabog wrote: »

Did your brother have to pay for a covid test?

Yes 100 euro hospital charge.

Cork Boy 53

ACitizenErased wrote: »

thats a very nice and mature thing to say

I thought you might appreciate it.

ACitizenErased

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

I thought you might appreciate it.

Yeah you're really giving a good impression

is_that_so

Martina1991 wrote: »

We didnt have the test available in Januaury.

The "sh!te" test we had in the beginning is the same as the one we use now.

Its just been scaled up to capacity with the infrastructure and logistics to support it.

The WHO posted German virus diagnostics head Victor Corman’s test protocol on its website on 13 January so the data was available from then. It happened really quickly as the Chinese had only published the genome on 10 January

Plumbthedepths

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Yeah you're really giving a good impression

Seriously why even engage with him?

LiquidZeb

ACitizenErased wrote: »

thats a very nice and mature thing to say

He hoped someone would get killed with a cut throat razor and called a single mother struggling with lockdown an attention seeker. He's not exactly Barney the dinosaur at the best of times. He must have great photos of someone doing something awful to avoid a ban.

lukas8888

fritzelly wrote: »

Take it up with insurance company - can see why its not covered since it isn't anything to do with a medical condition
Pay for the test or don't get the surgery

That charge is about the norm for the test

Its not a major issue, but if he called his doctor with a cough and was referred to a testing station it would be free.For 100 euro i would expect at worst a one day result.I Also feel that yes the health insurance should pay for it.

fr336

ACitizenErased wrote: »

thats a very nice and mature thing to say

What would be the problem with self isolating? Good enough for those with health conditions who would like to go back to work, have a life etc.

ShineOn7

LiquidZeb wrote: »

He hoped someone would get killed with a cut throat razor

He said what?!

BorneTobyWilde

US seems to be testing for the sake of testing. Their deaths are steady, while their cases are sky rocketing.

So they have 30000 new cases a day, but most of them didn't know they had it, and it didn't affect them.

LiquidZeb

ShineOn7 wrote: »

He said what?!

Yeah some lad was saying he had a trip to the barbers on the sly and Corkboy the vision of heaven that he is said he hoped he took a cut throat razor to him. He got a month ban but it looks like it was reversed as he's back like Jason Voorhees.

is_that_so

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Florida has a 15% test positivity rate AND they slowed down testing. Which means that their high numbers right now are not even close to reflecting the actual infection rate. For comparison, today our positivity rate was 0.1%.

We were over 20% for a bit here and they were pleased. High levels are good in terms of showing you are testing the right people but not good if it remains at such levels as it suggests a wider prevalence of the disease.

igCorcaigh

is_that_so wrote: »

We were over 20% for a bit here and they were pleased. High levels are good in terms of showing you are testing the right people but not good if it remains like that.

I suppose that figure has to be interpreted by the criteria for testing though. Ours were strict back then, so not reflective on the community?

BorneTobyWilde

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

US seems to be testing for the sake of testing. Their deaths are steady, while their cases are sky rocketing.

So they have 30000 new cases a day, but most of them didn't know they had it, and it didn't affect them.

Except that someone posted something a few days ago showing deaths attributable to pneumonia, and they were off the chart. Like a multiple of the annual norm. Suggesting that COVID deaths are being deliberately not classified as such

Plumbthedepths

fr336 wrote: »

What would be the problem with self isolating? Good enough for those with health conditions who would like to go back to work, have a life etc.

Healthy people without underlying conditions don't need to self isolate though do they? Those whom are vulnerable don't need to either but are advised to do so. Expecting everyone to lockdown or be restricted indefinitely until a vaccine comes along is beyond selfish imho

BorneTobyWilde

In the long run it will be those hit the worst that come out the best, in the long run, herd imunity