Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

US2

thegetawaycar wrote: »

At least people know the risks remain when travelling and won't claim otherwise if they catch Covid.

As long as people isolate when in the country fine but I'd expect the Government should be upping flight taxes to include a Covid test. Test in the airport and wait for a while while it comes back (there are tests available that give results in 2 hours), once clear no need to self isolate if positive straight to isolation.

Most people seem pissed off that they are being told there is still a risk, I'm not sure what the issue with being told that and being advised not to travel, if you don't care/ have weighed up the risks and still feel you want to travel then do.
If you expect a doctor to tell you that travel is not a risk then it's not going to be a very good doctor.

Don't think anyone is saying there's no risk. Crossing the road is a risk.

Eod100

ZX7R wrote: »

Anybody that booked before the 14th of March are covered by there travel insurance if you want to cancel.
Anybody who booked after that date there travel insurance won't cover the cost of they want to cancel.

Wonder how many people have travel insurance in first place though and if all providers are refunding

caveat emptor

US2 wrote: »

Don't think anyone is saying there's no risk. Crossing the road is a risk.

Except when you cross the road and get hit the car doesn't then crash through your mam's house , then crash through your friends house.

The risk is multiplicative. Different.

Spencer Brown

caveat emptor wrote: »

Except when you cross the road and get hit the car doesn't then crash through your mam's house , then crash through your friends house.

The risk is multiplicative. Different.

What happens after doesn't change the level of risk?

wadacrack

https://twitter.com/energiaracional/status/1278666166416953351

caveat emptor

Spencer Brown wrote: »

What happens after doesn't change the level of risk?

Correct if you are a selfish pr!ck.

thegetawaycar

US2 wrote: »

Don't think anyone is saying there's no risk. Crossing the road is a risk.

So then why are people crying and moaning that the CMO advised against travel?
They want to believe there is no/less risk or they want to pass responsibility on to someone else for the possible outcomes of foreign travel and getting the virus.

"not my fault, the government said it was ok"...

Non solum non ambulabit

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Scotland has made face coverings mandatory in retail settings.

I think we should do the same. People need to be told to increase compliance. Let's keep this virus suppressed.

Zonda999

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/energiaracional/status/1278666166416953351

Not surprising given that France and Italy found similar traces. Interestingly, Florianopolis where they took that sample from is not even a major population centre from a Brazilian perspective (population under 500,000 people in a country of 210 million)

This is a good thing given the way the pandemic needs to be managed from now on because at least it shows that if it was in circulation from November until March before we experienced the level of infection we did in the "first wave" in Europe from March onwards, then we know what the effect of approximately three to four months of doing basically nothing to stop the infection had. Looking back, it was mid February before I remember any of the public information campaigns telling people to wash their hands as much as possible even begun.

Based on this and the level of current precautions being taken as well as general awareness, it would take a lot for any subsequent waves of the virus to be anywhere near as bad as the first. That would be my hope anyway!

bb1234567

Zonda999 wrote: »

Not surprising given that France and Italy found similar traces.

This is a good thing given the way the pandemic needs to be managed from now on because at least it shows that if it was in circulation from November until March before we experienced the level of infection we did in the "first wave" in Europe from March onwards, then we know what the effect of approximately three to four months of doing basically nothing to stop the infection had. Loking back, it was mid February before I remember any of the piblic information campaigns telling people to wash their hands as much as possible even begun.

Based on this and the level of current precautions being taken as well as general awareness, it would take a lot for any subsequent waves of the virus to be anywhere near as bad as the first. That would be my hope anyway!

I think there is still a lot of question marks over this. Particularly Brazil where public policy has not changed all that much with regards minimising the virus circulationn since that time. Why did it start killing thousands of Brazilians daily coincidentally around the exact same time as in Europe if it had been circulating so long? And why did it take about a month or so longer to start killing people in Brazil at such a high level if it was in circulation at the same time or even before it was in mainland Europe? This is odd because Brazil is even more densely populated than mainland Europe.

There are just still a lot of unanswered questions, just the virus being found in wastewater does not explain what level the virus was in circulation, and why did it explode in so many countries around the same time frame

blade1

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

I think we should do the same. People need to be told to increase compliance. Let's keep this virus suppressed.

I think damage was done at the start when they told people masks were no advantage and possibly worse than no mask.

blade1

blade1 wrote: »

I think damage was done at the start when they told people masks were no advantage and possibly worse than no mask.

This is what exactly has happened. The compulsory wearing of masks when social distancing is not possible or when in confined places should have been brought in at the start. It's too late now.

Zonda999

bb1234567 wrote: »

I think there is still a lot of question marks over this. Particularly Brazil where public policy has not changed all that much with regards minimising the virus circulationn since that time. Why did it start killing thousands of Brazilians daily coincidentally around the exact same time as in Europe if it had been circulating so long? And why did it take about a month or so longer to start killing people in Brazil at such a high level if it was in circulation at the same time or even before it was in mainland Europe? This is odd because Brazil is even more densely populated than mainland Europe.

There are just still a lot of unanswered questions, just the virus being found in wastewater does not explain what level the virus was in circulation, and why did it explode in so many countries around the same time frame

For sure, we have no idea in what form it was in circulation. You would imagine an increase in deaths would have been seen from then on. Maybe there was an increase in death rates, people weren't being tested, I assume study's in time will look at "excess deaths" to try and work out if Covid was indeed killing people before March.

Rob A. Bank

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/energiaracional/status/1278666166416953351

The abstract may have suffered in translation from the Portuguese...

Abstract

We analysed human sewage located in Florianopolis (Santa Catalina, Brazil) from late October until the Brazil lockdown on early March. We detected SARS-CoV-2 in two samples collected independently on 27th November 2019 (5.49 ± 0.02 log genome copies/L).

Subsequent samplings were positive until 4th March 2020 (coinciding with the first COVID-19 case reported in Santa Catalina), with a SARS-CoV-2 RNA increase of one log (6.68 ± 0.02 log genome copies/L). Our results show that SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating in Brazil since late November 2019, much earlier than the first reported case in the Americas (21st January 2020, USA).

Surely he means "Subsequent samplings were negative until 4th March 2020" if the abstract is to make sense. They had only 2 positive samples for Covid RNA in November.

To be fair to him 'Positivo' in Portuguese seems to also imply OK, good etc.

Polar101

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

The abstract may have suffered in translation from the Portuguese...



Surely he means "Subsequent samplings were negative until 4th March 2020" if the abstract is to make sense. They had only 2 positive samples for Covid RNA in November.

To be fair to him 'Positivo' in Portuguese seems to also imply OK, good etc.

Florianopolis is in Santa Catarina too, not Catalina. I'm not saying it's important, but if they are trying to be credible, getting some really basic facts correct would help.

Renjit

Perfecto!

ACitizenErased

Latest ICU update is 10 remaining with 3 releases from ICU today so far

Nijmegen

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/almost-20-members-of-one-family-infected-after-covid-memorial-gathering-39333751.html

I'm sure this has been posted, but the second major cluster (10+ people) from 1 gathering (the other being the 14 people in Sligo after someone returned from overseas and had a family dinner).

The advantage we have now vs 3 months ago is we can quickly test and identify and hopefully contain clusters. But I'm also looking at things like x-rays of lungs of people who've had Covid and I'm not really keen to be in a "well contained cluster we caught quickly" myself.

ACitizenErased

Nijmegen wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/almost-20-members-of-one-family-infected-after-covid-memorial-gathering-39333751.html

I'm sure this has been posted, but the second major cluster (10+ people) from 1 gathering (the other being the 14 people in Sligo after someone returned from overseas and had a family dinner).

The advantage we have now vs 3 months ago is we can quickly test and identify and hopefully contain clusters. But I'm also looking at things like x-rays of lungs of people who've had Covid and I'm not really keen to be in a "well contained cluster we caught quickly" myself.

Anyone got the full article? Its behind a paywall.

ZX7R

I'm so curious as to how Tony Holohan is going to react to questioning this evening.

Kermit.de.frog

In the US, Florida reports record 10,109 new cases with a record positivity rate in testing of 16.7%.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/07/02/us/02reuters-health-coronavirus-usa-florida.html?partner=IFTTT

speckle

okay we have some kind of closed shop elite international event mid november say were alot of young healthy people attend like sports.
One person infected with covid arrives to it. Say at they the infect 1 person from each coutrys team that attends.
they go home.
Mid november to mid february is aprox. 12 wweks.
The virus has an R0 of 2 and on average say take 7days for the infection to show/become infectious and for some of those people to say for example cough and start spreading it

wk 1 one person
wk2 2 people
week 3 4 people
.wk 4 8 people
wk 5 16 people
wk 6 32 people
wk 7 64 people
wk 8 128 people
wk 9 256 people
wk 10 512 people
wk 11 1024 people
1% die of all the above numbers added together equals (2047) is 20.4 dead extra in a country.
Would we notice this just yet? maybe the next week with 41 dead we will and from now on..expotential growth really kicks off we should.
remember if they are sports people maybe they will shake it off with a light dose or maybe molly coddle themselves at home like self isolation as they want to get better quick.
Some may pass it on to no one or just one or two people. A tiny amount might pass it on to many.
Culturaly most people hang around with others like themselves so premier sports people might give it at first to more helathy people in the population. They probably dont go to bars that often etc..But eventually it will hit the more susceptable types of people.
Each country that got seeded from that event will aproxiamently show a rise in infection around the same time.
An epidim9ligist might lookat the areas were the waster water positive examples arise to see if the neighbourhoods have anything in common etc. which might show what groups of people got infected first.

NOTE; I am not using covids R0 or death rate ...as they are always moving during a pandemic and will take time to settle down to final numbers. We only have a rough idea at the moment.

Disclaimer I am not great at math and I am typingon the fullsite on a mobile, so anyone here is free to edit the above post or even tell me to trash it if totalky wrong.

MerlinSouthDub

The number of positive tests shown on the Covid Dashboard has increased by 8 since yesterday. 3773 tests were completed yesterday.

ACitizenErased

I’m thinking this cluster is Leitrim. 3 cases last 3 days. Might see a jump today?

homewardbound11

I Have say that the amount of northern reg camper vans heading to achill this week is crazy. I’m only thinking of the usual immigration for the marching season . Surely there is some sanity check and marching won’t go ahead or the mass influx of people from Northern Ireland . Sadly the first part seems to going ahead .

I can only think of When lockdown 2 happens and the recession that follows we will be looking back at foreign travel and who we let back without isolation periods being in forced .

ACitizenErased

homewardbound11 wrote: »

I Have say that the amount of northern reg camper vans heading to achill this week is crazy. I’m only thinking of the usual immigration for the marching season . Surely there is some sanity check and marching won’t go ahead or the mass influx of people from Northern Ireland . Sadly the first part seems to going ahead .

I can only think of When lockdown 2 happens and the recession that follows we will be looking back at foreign travel and who we let back without isolation periods being in forced .

Northern Ireland isn’t a foreign place and has less cases than we do

An Ciarraioch

homewardbound11 wrote: »

I Have say that the amount of northern reg camper vans heading to achill this week is crazy. I’m only thinking of the usual immigration for the marching season . Surely there is some sanity check and marching won’t go ahead or the mass influx of people from Northern Ireland . Sadly the first part seems to going ahead .

I can only think of When lockdown 2 happens and the recession that follows we will be looking back at foreign travel and who we let back without isolation periods being in forced .

TBF, the Orange Order cancelled the Twelfth marches as far back as April:b

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-52184743

An Ciarraioch

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Northern Ireland isn’t a foreign place and has less cases than we do

Adjusting for population, roughly the same.

homewardbound11

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Northern Ireland isn’t a foreign place and has less cases than we do

Your joining dots there . I never said Northern Ireland was foreign . I was making a comment about foreign travel and repercussions.

Regardless anyone with a hint of sanity wouldn’t be travelling 200-300 k during this time for a holiday ? I guess everyone has their own opinion .

What Username Guidelines

speckle wrote: »

okay we have some kind of closed shop elite international event mid november say were alot of young healthy people attend like sports.
One person infected with covid arrives to it. Say at they the infect 1 person from each coutrys team that attends.
they go home.
Mid november to mid february is aprox. 12 wweks.
The virus has an R0 of 2 and on average say take 7days for the infection to show/become infectious and for some of those people to say for example cough and start spreading it

wk 1 one person
wk2 2 people
week 3 4 people
.wk 4 8 people
wk 5 16 people
wk 6 32 people
wk 7 64 people
wk 8 128 people
wk 9 256 people
wk 10 512 people
wk 11 1024 people
1% die of all the above numbers added together equals (2047) is 20.4 dead extra in a country.
Would we notice this just yet? maybe the next week with 41 dead we will and from now on..expotential growth really kicks off we should.
remember if they are sports people maybe they will shake it off with a light dose or maybe molly coddle themselves at home like self isolation as they want to get better quick.
Some may pass it on to no one or just one or two people. A tiny amount might pass it on to many.
Culturaly most people hang around with others like themselves so premier sports people might give it at first to more helathy people in the population. They probably dont go to bars that often etc..But eventually it will hit the more susceptable types of people.
Each country that got seeded from that event will aproxiamently show a rise in infection around the same time.
An epidim9ligist might lookat the areas were the waster water positive examples arise to see if the neighbourhoods have anything in common etc. which might show what groups of people got infected first.

NOTE; I am not using covids R0 or death rate ...as they are always moving during a pandemic and will take time to settle down to final numbers. We only have a rough idea at the moment.

Disclaimer I am not great at math and I am typingon the fullsite on a mobile, so anyone here is free to edit the above post or even tell me to trash it if totalky wrong.

Yep, there's something in that alright. It seems like it bubbles under the surface for a while before critical mass is reached and it's noticed.

When people argue that the hospitals should have been overrun as soon as it arrived, they're not taking this into account.

Hospitalisation in Ireland is about 15% of confirmed cases, so let's say conservatively that it's 5% for total cases. To get 200 people in hospital you'd need about 8,000-10,000 infections in the country, and even speeding up your timeline to double every 3 days, as we were told it was initially, it would take six weeks from patient zero. And if they're all spread out amongst 20 hospitals, you've still only got 10 patients per hospital, which may not be identified as related initially, especially during flu season, and especially with a virus that presents with flu-like symptoms leading to pneumonia.

Obviously numbers can be adjusted in the above, and while we all know our first identified case on Feb 29th didn't kick this off, it was almost certainly seeded weeks beforehand.