Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

ACitizenErased

Briefing is at 6:45 tonight. Dunno what they’re up to.

ACitizenErased

homewardbound11 wrote: »

Your joining dots there . I never said Northern Ireland was foreign . I was making a comment about foreign travel and repercussions.

Regardless anyone with a hint of sanity wouldn’t be travelling 200-300 k during this time for a holiday ? I guess everyone has their own opinion .

I don’t see any issue with people from Northern Ireland visiting. Be the exact same as people in Cork visiting Donegal, or Dublin visiting Kerry.

schmoo2k

Deleted User wrote: »

This is what exactly has happened. The compulsory wearing of masks when social distancing is not possible or when in confined places should have been brought in at the start. It's too late now.

One of the reasons they didn't at the start was to ensure frontline healthcare workers had supply...

ZX7R

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Briefing is at 6:45 tonight. Dunno what they’re up to.

New minister for health making an appearance perhaps

schmoo2k

speckle wrote: »

okay we have some kind of closed shop elite international event mid november say were alot of young healthy people attend like sports.
One person infected with covid arrives to it. Say at they the infect 1 person from each coutrys team that attends.
they go home.
Mid november to mid february is aprox. 12 wweks.
The virus has an R0 of 2 and on average say take 7days for the infection to show/become infectious and for some of those people to say for example cough and start spreading it

wk 1 one person
wk2 2 people
week 3 4 people
.wk 4 8 people
wk 5 16 people
wk 6 32 people
wk 7 64 people
wk 8 128 people
wk 9 256 people
wk 10 512 people
wk 11 1024 people
1% die of all the above numbers added together equals (2047) is 20.4 dead extra in a country.
Would we notice this just yet? maybe the next week with 41 dead we will and from now on..expotential growth really kicks off we should.
remember if they are sports people maybe they will shake it off with a light dose or maybe molly coddle themselves at home like self isolation as they want to get better quick.
Some may pass it on to no one or just one or two people. A tiny amount might pass it on to many.
Culturaly most people hang around with others like themselves so premier sports people might give it at first to more helathy people in the population. They probably dont go to bars that often etc..But eventually it will hit the more susceptable types of people.
Each country that got seeded from that event will aproxiamently show a rise in infection around the same time.
An epidim9ligist might lookat the areas were the waster water positive examples arise to see if the neighbourhoods have anything in common etc. which might show what groups of people got infected first.

NOTE; I am not using covids R0 or death rate ...as they are always moving during a pandemic and will take time to settle down to final numbers. We only have a rough idea at the moment.

Disclaimer I am not great at math and I am typingon the fullsite on a mobile, so anyone here is free to edit the above post or even tell me to trash it if totalky wrong.

While the R0 value in a normal situation is probably > R2, in the current "relaxed" state it should still be <R1 (and remember that sports person coming back to Ireland will be isolating for 2 weeks) - even if they don't with contact tracing and continued distancing and washing hands, it keeps it less than R1 which is crucial.

Renjit

homewardbound11 wrote: »

Regardless anyone with a hint of sanity wouldn’t be travelling 200-300 k during this time for a holiday ? I guess everyone has their own opinion .

Then how are they going to enjoy the week off? They well damn earned it by staying at home. If not now then when? Corona will be there for long time:cool:

greensheep777

homewardbound11 wrote: »

I Have say that the amount of northern reg camper vans heading to achill this week is crazy. I’m only thinking of the usual immigration for the marching season . Surely there is some sanity check and marching won’t go ahead or the mass influx of people from Northern Ireland . Sadly the first part seems to going ahead .

I can only think of When lockdown 2 happens and the recession that follows we will be looking back at foreign travel and who we let back without isolation periods being in forced .

homewardbound11 wrote: »

Regardless anyone with a hint of sanity wouldn’t be travelling 200-300 k during this time for a holiday ? I guess everyone has their own opinion .

They are from this island and are entitled to identify as Irish. Maybe they wanted one of those staycations Dr Hoolahoop has been advertising?

Ficheall

greensheep777 wrote: »

They are from this island and are entitled to identify as Irish.

Were they identifying as Irish when they were hopping across the border a few weeks back when "Irish" people were instructed to stay within 2km/5km of their homes?

shinzon

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Briefing is at 6:45 tonight. Dunno what they’re up to.

Werent they meeting today to discuss travel etc could be the reason for the delay.

Funsterdelux

ZX7R wrote: »

I'm so curious as to how Tony Holohan is going to react to questioning this evening.

He's going to give the answers in the form of rap music.

Renjit

Scotland going for localized restrictions of 5 miles. We may have similar arrangements.

JP Liz V1

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Apparently New York are 'cracking down on domestic travelers heading to their states from parts of the country that are experiencing a spike in coronavirus cases' Is it really beyond us to do the same, being thousands of KM away and all? Stop domestic flights/ deny entry to US tourists, it's simply ridiculous we cant do this, especially when we're not even allowed enter in opposite direction!!!

Quite a few Yanks in Kerry holidaying

Always_Running

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Northern Ireland isn’t a foreign place and has less cases than we do

Much smaller and hard to know the true amount of cases they have as they did much less testing than the ROI.

At least their approach has stopped following Bojo the clown.

speckle

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Yep, there's something in that alright. It seems like it bubbles under the surface for a while before critical mass is reached and it's noticed.

When people argue that the hospitals should have been overrun as soon as it arrived, they're not taking this into account.

Hospitalisation in Ireland is about 15% of confirmed cases, so let's say conservatively that it's 5% for total cases. To get 200 people in hospital you'd need about 8,000-10,000 infections in the country, and even speeding up your timeline to double every 3 days, as we were told it was initially, it would take six weeks from patient zero. And if they're all spread out amongst 20 hospitals, you've still only got 10 patients per hospital, which may not be identified as related initially, especially during flu season, and especially with a virus that presents with flu-like symptoms leading to pneumonia.

Obviously numbers can be adjusted in the above, and while we all know our first identified case on Feb 29th didn't kick this off, it was almost certainly seeded weeks beforehand.

Yes I agree it may go unnoticed especially if spread out and the staff wont even have the proper PPE at first.
A country may even have extra seeds brought in during my simple timeline for example, people returning from visiting other countries or even visitors from the originating country visiting here for a family event.
And if one or more healthy young healthcare workers have it, it may even seed in a hospital amongst staff first and not be noticed straightway.
And the person who started the international time line at the event maybe patient 500 for the original country and hence there it will reach critical mass awarness first.
Epidemiology is very very complex and intetesting. It must be sad and exhilarating at times too.

drunkmonkey

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Quite a few Yanks in Kerry holidaying

Heard that today loads down in Killarney, coming in through Belfast and driving down.

Zonda999

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Heard that today loads down in Killarney, coming in through Belfast and driving down.

They wouldn't even need to (Even if thats what they did), sure they could just fly directly to Dublin, fill in the quarantine form and then just carry on as normal

Gael23

Anyone that wants to come in is flying to Belfast

Eod100

Zonda999 wrote: »

They wouldn't even need to (Even if thats what they did), sure they could just fly directly to Dublin, fill in the quarantine form and then just carry on as normal

Yeah exactly. Never mind that flying through NI doesn't make any difference to guidelines as that's only for residents of NI already living there

tom1ie

So what exactly has our government done about USA tourists coming into the country?
What have the rest of the Eu done?
How are we not doing as the Eu have done (if that is the case) as we are an Eu member?

Gael23

What’s the delay with today’s figures?

expectationlost

Gael23 wrote: »

What’s the delay with today’s figures?

Taoiseach interview maybe...

podgeandrodge

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Scotland has made face coverings mandatory in retail settings.

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

I think we should do the same. People need to be told to increase compliance. Let's keep this virus suppressed.

My view is that they should be more specific in advice/mandatory usage. Taking a trip to the local supermarket where it's easy enough to go about your shopping without being on top of anyone for any more than a second is not a risk in my view, and has not led to community transmission to date. Perhaps other retail locations are more confined.

Micky 32

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Heard that today loads down in Killarney, coming in through Belfast and driving down.

Was it from a friend of a friend ?

tom1ie

podgeandrodge wrote: »

My view is that they should be more specific in advice/mandatory usage. Taking a trip to the local supermarket where it's easy enough to go about your shopping without being on top of anyone for any more than a second is not a risk in my view, and has not led to community transmission to date. Perhaps other retail locations are more confined.

Nah, just make it mandatory to wear masks indoor in public places to be sure to be sure. Simples.

expectationlost

f5 f5 f5

ACitizenErased

Irish Times: Ireland has lowest current incidence of Covid-19 in western Europe

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ireland-has-lowest-current-incidence-of-covid-19-in-western-europe-1.4294642?localLinksEnabled=false

TheDriver

Micky 32 wrote: »

Was it from a friend of a friend ?

On radio yesterday, a woman in Killarney said she asked a group of Americans and they told her they just arrived through Belfast.

Ficheall

Anyone have the link to the non-RTE player live stream? Cleared my browser history yesterday and can't find it again now..

branie2

When will the next announcement of the number of cases and deaths be? It's rather late now

expectationlost

Ficheall wrote: »

Anyone have the link to the non-RTE player live stream? Cleared my browser history yesterday and can't find it again now..

https://www.pscp.tv/rtenews/