Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Jim_Hodge

Hector Savage wrote: »

Melbourne back in full lockdown, never thought there would be more full lockdowns, just restrictions, so that basically means more full on lockdowns coming in Europe

Great!

That will surely kill the limping economy, hey I probably won't get covid but I'll be kicked out of my house and starve to death on the ****ing streets!!!


But hey - I won't get covid!!!

Relax! It could be worse. You could get Covid or a loved one could get it and die or suffer life changing complications.

is_that_so

Hector Savage wrote: »

Melbourne back in full lockdown, never thought there would be more full lockdowns, just restrictions, so that basically means more full on lockdowns coming in Europe

Great!

That will surely kill the limping economy, hey I probably won't get covid but I'll be kicked out of my house and starve to death on the ****ing streets!!!


But hey - I won't get covid!!!

Melbourne sounds like a mix between Singapore with its immigrant workers and the NZ lax application of quarantine rules. Came across one article where it described the translated advice as requiring a university degree to understand it.

mloc123

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Warnings from a 'mild' case...

https://twitter.com/DaniOliver/status/1279155358666305541

Just curiousdoes anyone here know anyone with a mild (offically diagnosed) case who ISNT battling symptoms months later?

Yes. Both my wife's parents, late 60s... Had 3-4 days of flu like symptoms and 2 weeks later had no lingering issues.

Her father has been cycling, hiking etc... Ever since with no problems.

stephenjmcd

is_that_so wrote: »

Melbourne sounds like a mix between Singapore with its immigrant workers and the NZ lax application of quarantine rules. Came across one article where it described the translated advice as requiring a university degree to understand it.

I'm sure the security guards at the quarantine hotels jumping into bed with some of those in quarantine didn't help too much either

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I'm sure the security guards at the quarantine hotels jumping into bed with some of those in quarantine didn't help too much either

Aww yeah mate, but that sheila was hot!

Alun

Deleted User wrote: »

I know of at least 5 people who had it, One finished up in ICU - 76 with underlying conditions but pulled through, but still not great. The rest had no after effects and are all back in work

I know of two people who have had it, a 60 year old, hillwalker, tennis player and diver, recovered with no issues at all. The other, our ex-neighbour, an 84 year old woman in a nursing home, again recovered fully without going near a hospital with no issues, mind you she's indestructible!

On the issues people have been facing though, there's a things called post-viral fatigue that anyone can get after any viral infection, not just covid-19. I had a period about 15 years ago where I was going down regularly with very brief but intense fever symptoms, never diagnosed, and these went as quickly as they appeared, but I had all kinds of weird symptoms for years afterwards including fatigue and mild neurological symptoms, so it's not unusual or unexpected I'd say,

wadacrack

Alun wrote: »

I know of two people who have had it, a 60 year old, hillwalker, tennis player and diver, recovered with no issues at all. The other, our ex-neighbour, an 84 year old woman in a nursing home, again recovered fully without going near a hospital with no issues, mind you she's indestructible!

On the issues people have been facing though, there's a things called post-viral fatigue that anyone can get after any viral infection, not just covid-19. I had a period about 15 years ago where I was going down regularly with very brief but intense fever symptoms, never diagnosed, and these went as quickly as they appeared, but I had all kinds of weird symptoms for years afterwards including fatigue and mild neurological symptoms, so it's not unusual or unexpected I'd say,

The drugs used cause issues afterwards for many people. Obviously that may not have been the case here but over medicating people seems to be pretty common

wadacrack

Greater Melbourne will return to stage 3 lockdown from midnight tomorrow for six weeks.

You cannot leave your house unless it is for:

Care and medical reason.
Shopping for essentials.
Work or study which can’t be done at home.
Exercise.

What Username Guidelines

wadacrack wrote: »

Greater Melbourne will return to stage 3 lockdown from midnight tomorrow for six weeks.

You cannot leave your house unless it is for:

Care and medical reason.
Shopping for essentials.
Work or study which can’t be done at home.
Exercise.

Maybe I’m spending too much time on the internet, and I realise covid is far more serious than flu, but Southern Hemisphere temperate regions usually start seeing an uptick in flu in July into august. Couple that with northern USA peaking and falling and now southern USA surging, this may in fact be following a seasonal pattern.

PmMeUrDogs

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Warnings from a 'mild' case...

https://twitter.com/DaniOliver/status/1279155358666305541

Just curiousdoes anyone here know anyone with a mild (offically diagnosed) case who ISNT battling symptoms months later?

I've got 4 relatives and one friend who had it.

One relative was in ICU for a few weeks but thankfully has recovered and has no apparent lingering effects. Two were at home sick as a dog for three weeks and are fine now, no lingering issues. One died (elderly, underlying conditions), and the friend was very ill for around 6 weeks but is fine now.

DebDynamite

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's actually fairly sad all the same you'd wonder like

There was a DJ there and everything! Actually looked to be better craic and more like the “old days” than sitting inside a socially distanced pub. Being able to go and get your own cans meant it was cheaper for people too. The guards really should have done more

timsey tiger

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Maybe I’m spending too much time on the internet, and I realise covid is far more serious than flu, but Southern Hemisphere temperate regions usually start seeing an uptick in flu in July into august. Couple that with northern USA peaking and falling and now southern USA surging, this may in fact be following a seasonal pattern.

Just checking, you do realise southern USA is still in its northern summer. You should elaborate on how southern USA surging reinforces your seasonality pattern theory.

Hector Savage

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Relax! It could be worse. You could get Covid or a loved one could get it and die or suffer life changing complications.

Yes indeed, and I could be hit by a bus tomorrow or get a brain tumour!!!

Boggles

Here is another reason the Asian countries will be more successful in containing the virus, they would never let an "entertainments company" dictate public health policy.


Court overturns local lockdown on German slaughterhouse town

The ruling, after some 1,500 workers were infected, throws into doubt the system of quick lockdown responses and rapid track-and-trace on which Germany has been relying to move into the second phase of its fight against the pandemic.

After the outbreak, the premier of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia brought in a week-long lockdown, imposing social distancing on the town of about 100,000 people and closing many cultural institutions to try to stop its spread.

A legal challenge brought by a private individual against the first week of lockdown was rejected.

But when it was extended to run for another week until Tuesday, an entertainments company operating in the district put in a second challenge and the court changed its mind, saying authorities had had time to impose more targeted restrictions.

caveat emptor

More good news from UK.
After reopening pubs in UK some people got infected and pubs are closing. That was quick.
Only 3 so far so that would translate to zero here in terms of statistics and infection rate here etc. So nothing to worry about.
Would be worrying if you were unfortunate enough to spend the Saturday getting leathered in one though.
Shows that the onus really is on the pubs to get it right.

At least three pubs in England that reopened their doors for the first time on Saturday have been forced to close again after customers or staff tested positive for Covid-19.

The Lighthouse Kitchen and Carvery in Burnham-on-Sea, Somerset, said a customer had tested positive and it was making its way through a list of people who were in the premises on Saturday.

In a statement posted on Facebook, it said: “This isn’t the message we wanted to write so soon but The Lighthouse will be closed due to a customer testing positive. We are slowly getting through our list of customers that were in the pub on Saturday. All our staff are going to be tested and we will reopen when the time is safe to do so.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/07/several-pubs-in-england-close-after-positive-coronavirus-tests

feelings

Private security guards working at quarantine hotels getting jiggy jiggy with guests. Jaysus. Idiots. :pac:

wadacrack wrote: »

Greater Melbourne will return to stage 3 lockdown from midnight tomorrow for six weeks.

You cannot leave your house unless it is for:

Care and medical reason.
Shopping for essentials.
Work or study which can’t be done at home.
Exercise.

CalamariFritti

Boggles wrote: »

Here is another reason the Asian countries will be more successful in containing the virus, they would never let an "entertainments company" dictate public health policy.


Court overturns local lockdown on German slaughterhouse town

Ye god forbid people actually have rights and a proper legal system here.
If only we were ruled like the Chinese here, eh? Fkn hell.

To me, there are two possible outcomes from allowing tourists in and life to go pretty much back to normal.

- The virus has swept through the population and lots of people have immunity even though they lose the antibodies pretty quickly. Things work out fine.
- Only 5% of the population (Spain's antibodies number?) have actually contracted the virus and it spreads the exact same as it did the first time and it's a return to lockdown.

I don't see this third option of localised lockdowns being realistic when Ireland can't even make a close contact of a confirmed case take a test. Australia is going from tower blocks to massive regions in no time.

For a very long time, since before antibodies testing, I've believed the former is the case. You don't need active antibodies. Your body needs to know how to make them and I guess that's what the talk of T cells is? I'm not a scientist.

I think now there is good chance that the countries that handled it best will be the ones with the big second wave, like Australia maybe now, or Vietnam where I am. It feels inevitable that once it opens up here next year or whatever, there will be a new surge of cases and more lockdowns, whereas Ireland could be done with the big ones. Then people will discuss how these countries dropped the ball and Ireland didn't.

All uneducated opinion of course.

s1ippy

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/bolsonaro-experiencing-covid-19-symptoms-says-cnn-brazil-1.4297784

Someone already posted last night but Bolsonaro is being tested, fingers crossed for him

ZX7R

wadacrack wrote: »

Greater Melbourne will return to stage 3 lockdown from midnight tomorrow for six weeks.

You cannot leave your house unless it is for:

Care and medical reason.
Shopping for essentials.
Work or study which can’t be done at home.
Exercise.

My friend is living in Melbourne married and settled there 20 year's.
He was adamant that Australia were going the right direction by trying to eradicate the virus.
At the start everything was heavily enforced
He reckons that people himself included started to get very complacent about the virus plenty of back slapping how well they were doing , Media running story's about their success compared to Europe America ect.
A large growing of discontent in how the officials have handled the situation .

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

To me, there are two possible outcomes from allowing tourists in and life to go pretty much back to normal.

- The virus has swept through the population and lots of people have immunity even though they lose the antibodies pretty quickly. Things work out fine.
- Only 5% of the population (Spain's antibodies number?) have actually contracted the virus and it spreads the exact same as it did the first time and it's a return to lockdown.

I don't see this third option of localised lockdowns being realistic when Ireland can't even make a close contact of a confirmed case take a test. Australia is going from tower blocks to massive regions in no time.

For a very long time, since before antibodies testing, I've believed the former is the case. You don't need active antibodies. Your body needs to know how to make them and I guess that's what the talk of T cells is? I'm not a scientist.

I think now there is good chance that the countries that handled it best will be the ones with the big second wave, like Australia maybe now, or Vietnam where I am. It feels inevitable that once it opens up here next year or whatever, there will be a new surge of cases and more lockdowns, whereas Ireland could be done with the big ones. Then people will discuss how these countries dropped the ball and Ireland didn't.

All uneducated opinion of course.

I'm curious about this. As we've only been given the bare amount of information -as per usual - is it possibly a case of people disagreeing about whether or not they have been in contact? Some people's idea of close contact will be different to other's and we can all get a bit muddled about who we saw when. Knowing the reasons why people refused would be very useful.

stephenjmcd

Shannon Airport facing major issues, more pay cuts and layoffs to come.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0707/1151820-shannon-airport/

caveat emptor

Found some conclusions from that study on near realtime economic data.
Massive variance based on income level and postcode. I know US different but same trends probably exist here. Scary to see that disadvantaged areas dropping in math participation for kids. Pointing to fact that shock will be echo for years to come if those kids fall behind. This is all done with real data. A lot to learn on how to lessen impact of this to those hardest hit.

https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/tracker-summary.pdf

• As COVID-19 infections increased in March, high-income households sharply reduced their spending, primarily on services that require in-person interactions.
  
• Because of this reduction in spending by high-income consumers, businesses in the most affluent neighborhoods in America lost more than 70% of their revenue.
  
• As these businesses lost revenue, they laid off their employees, particularly low-income workers. Nearly 70% of low-wage workers working in the highest-rent ZIP codes lost their jobs, compared with 30% in the lowest-rent ZIP codes.
  
• Policy efforts to date — stimulus payments to households and Paycheck Protection Program loans to small businesses — have not led to a rebound in spending at the businesses that lost the most revenue. As a result, they have had a limited impact on the employment rates of low- income workers.
  
• In the long-term, the only way to drive economic recovery is to invest in public health efforts that will restore consumer confidence and spending.
  
• In the meantime, providing and extending targeted assistance to low-income workers impacted by the economic downturn (such as through unemployment benefits) is critical for reducing hardship and addressing disparities in COVID’s impacts.

What this analysis means for policy going forward
A large initial reduction in spending by high- income households driven by health concerns about COVID-19 has cascaded through to a loss of business for firms that cater to high-income customers, leading to layoffs of low-wage workers at those businesses. Given this sequence of events, the only path to full economic recovery in the long run is to restore consumer confidence by focusing on health policies that will address the virus itself. Traditional economic tools — loans to firms or

Eod100

Talk of an electronic register. Thought it would be fairly simple for airlines to forward passenger manifesto of passengers who boarded to INIS or HSE say but maybe with GDPR not that simple. https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1280441730169438208?s=19

Eod100

For the covid app, how near does someone need to be to still get bluetooth signal from another device? If someone tests positive, will everyone who was within bluetooth signal within a certain period get a notification? Or is it based on duration of contact say?

Renjit

Eod100 wrote: »

For the covid app, how near does someone need to be to still get bluetooth signal from another device? If someone tests positive, will everyone who was within bluetooth signal within a certain period get a notification? Or is it based on duration of contact say?

Proximity. You can measure the proximity by signal strength (RSSI). I did a project earlier but different usage. And also the time duration. It's a rough measure as RSSI can be affected by other factors too.

little bess

This is an interesting read, a breakdown of the clusters in Melbourne.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/07/coronavirus-victoria-melbourne-covid-19-cases-clusters-hotspot-suburbs-hard-lockdown-family-outbreak-towers-flemington-keilor-downs-albanvale-hallam-coburg-brimbank-wollert-ascot-vale-maribyrnong-fawkner-tullamarine-truganina

schmoo2k

timsey tiger wrote: »

Just checking, you do realise southern USA is still in its northern summer. You should elaborate on how southern USA surging reinforces your seasonality pattern theory.

One explanation is that in those places this time of year (FL + TX for example), its really unpleasant to be outside and everyone is inside in air conditioned spaces (which is going to promote the spread).

Come "winter" time, FL + TX are really nice places to be and folks have their air con off, doors /windows open and its more an "outside" lifestyle. (But in NY folks will be inside with the heating on and the windows closed).

So yes there will be seasonal factors which will impact the spread, but more along the lines of inside / outside living not because the virus loves a bit of drizzle and cold air...

spookwoman

BBC News - Coronavirus: Three England pubs close after positive tests https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-53315702

Jim_Hodge

Study shows no herd immunity in Spain

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0706/1151745-spain-antibody-study/

Jim_Hodge

schmoo2k wrote: »

One explanation is that in those places this time of year (FL + TX for example), its really unpleasant to be outside and everyone is inside in air conditioned spaces (which is going to promote the spread).

Come "winter" time, FL + TX are really nice places to be and folks have their air con off, doors /windows open and its more an "outside" lifestyle. (But in NY folks will be inside with the heating on and the windows closed).

So yes there will be seasonal factors which will impact the spread, but more along the lines of inside / outside living not because the virus loves a bit of drizzle and cold air...

It's not yet unpleasantly warm or humid there yet. South Carolina has very pleasant weather at the moment and their numbers are shooting up.

An Ciarraioch

Where the app is concerned, apparently 60% acceptance, or 3 million downloads would be required for universal coverage - still, 350,000 is an impressive start so far.

cnocbui

s1ippy wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/bolsonaro-experiencing-covid-19-symptoms-says-cnn-brazil-1.4297784

Someone already posted last night but Bolsonaro is being tested, fingers crossed for him

Fingers crossed for the virus.

D.Q

spookwoman wrote: »

BBC News - Coronavirus: Three England pubs close after positive tests https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-53315702

Not sure how this even qualifies as a story. The headline says several. The story is 3. Out of how many like. I like the guardian, and the IT, but I'm starting to feel they're being a bit disingenuous with the click baity misery headlines.

What Username Guidelines

D.Q wrote: »

Not sure how this even qualifies as a story. The headline says several. The story is 3. Out of how many like. I like the guardian, and the IT, but I'm starting to feel they're being a bit disingenuous with the click baity misery headlines.

There are over 50,000 pubs in England alone. Even if 100x more had a similar story that didn't make the news, it's still a tiny %

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Where the app is concerned, apparently 60% acceptance, or 3 million downloads would be required for universal coverage - still, 350,000 is an impressive start so far.

60%+ coverage would be optimal for covering a single-solution to contract tracing. As an additional tool alongside manual/analogue tracing, every download counts and will be helpful towards combatting outbreaks.

I read recently that even manual contract tracing during massive outbreaks like in NY and Brazil is worth the investment, can't find a source now, but chopping off even one arm of an outbreak will yield results.

Deeper Blue

D.Q wrote: »

Not sure how this even qualifies as a story. The headline says several. The story is 3. Out of how many like. I like the guardian, and the IT, but I'm starting to feel they're being a bit disingenuous with the click baity misery headlines.

I'm surprised the person that wrote it was able to take their hands out of their pants tbh

ACitizenErased

20% of the population is less than 14 so 60% of the remainder is about 2.3 million, we’re nearly 20% there

D.Q

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

There are over 50,000 pubs in England alone. Even if 100x more had a similar story that didn't make the news, it's still a tiny %


.

Yeah exactly. Even taking that 50,000 as a rough figure, why frame it as "several" instead of 0.01%.

I wouldn't be into conspiracy theories, or even particularly anti media, I think journalism is an incredibly important check on society and government etc I also believe in the severity of the disease, social distancing should be adhered to etc

But.. At some point we need to examine the fact that it is hugely in the interest of media for this to go on indefinitely. Constant clicks, constant revenue. I just think its starting to turn a corner in terms of honest reporting. It's important to keep up with the news, but I'm not sure I can trust the news to turn off the tap for themselves.

ACitizenErased

So much for a second wave in China...

https://twitter.com/afp/status/1280482581243408385?s=21

giveitholly

ACitizenErased wrote: »

So much for a second wave in China...

https://twitter.com/afp/status/1280482581243408385?s=21

Any chance the mainstream media might report this? Probably not

MickeyLeari

ACitizenErased wrote: »

20% of the population is less than 14 so 60% of the remainder is about 2.3 million, we’re nearly 20% there

The challenge is that not every mobile phone is compatible for the technology used in the app. I wonder what is the real maximum?

Saying that I think the real benefit in this app may be the cases in pubs, restaurants and public transport which may have a lower age demographic.

Say a Dublin pub where 85% of the punters have the app then presumably it would be effective even though national take up may only be 40%.

MickeyLeari

giveitholly wrote: »

Any chance the mainstream media might report this? Probably not

The third wave is coming. To be fair they did a pretty sharp lock down.

What Username Guidelines

Not sure if already mentioned, but the dashboard update puts numbers in ICU back in single figure, with 1 discharge, just 9 remain.

cnocbui

ACitizenErased wrote: »

So much for a second wave in China...

https://twitter.com/afp/status/1280482581243408385?s=21

Seeing as you purport to know what's really going on in China, perhaps you could tell me what happened to Dr Ai Fen, because I would really like to know?

ACitizenErased

cnocbui wrote: »

Seeing as you purport to know what's really going on in China, perhaps you could tell me what happened to Dr Ai Fen, because I would really like to know?

One second let me just ask my friends in chinese government......

D.Q

giveitholly wrote: »

Any chance the mainstream media might report this? Probably not

Why would they report this when they have famed expert Gerry Killeen on hand.

stephenjmcd

App registrations showing over 400k for me, thats excellent after not even 24hrs

Stheno

stephenjmcd wrote: »

App registrations showing over 400k for me, thats excellent after not even 24hrs

Excluding the 1million plus children in our population, thats halfway to the min. 20% for the app to be effective

I've it downloaded which effectively covers myself and the Oh so coverage might be even higher

stephenjmcd

Stheno wrote: »

Excluding the 1million plus children in our population, thats halfway to the min. 20% for the app to be effective

I think its a fantastic number given the official launch was only a few hours ago. I'd say that number has even taken the HSE by surprise.

Likewise 4 of us in the house, 3 smartphones all downloaded it. The father has point blank just refused to getting a smartphone for the last few years, he's happy with the basic phone but with the 3 of us that covers the house.

AlmightyCushion

giveitholly wrote: »

Any chance the mainstream media might report this? Probably not

The link is to a yahoo news article. The story was already reported by CNN, NY times, Reuters, MSN, the telegraph. Yeah, mainstream media are really hiding this story.