Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

ACitizenErased

hotmail.com wrote: »

Was this the criteria Melbourne used for their fresh lockdown?

Melbourne had uncontrolled community transmission. Our cases are tracked to known clusters. 15 of them are travel related, the remainder are nursing homes/private clusters. Big big difference.

stephenjmcd

HSE Operations update out.

As of 18:30, 9 covid patients in ICU, 7 ventilated. No change on yesterday.

As of 8pm, 11 covid paitents in general beds, down 1 on yesterday

Squeaksoutloud

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'm seeing "asymptomatic" more and more in the last week

What a crafty virus

Has anyone got data or study they trust on the estimated % of a country's population that have had it/had it but don't show any symptoms?

I've seen reports since April saying everything from 5% to 50%

There was one preprint study posted here recently from Italy where 70% of under 65s were asymptomatic.

ShineOn7

Azatadine wrote: »

You can feel that the fears of a second wave are rising alright. Certainly the media are propagating that.

Never in the history of modern media have they made so much money from a world event

Not 9/11, not Princess Di passing, not Madelaine McCain going missing. None of them come close to how much of a cash machine Covid is for the media

That's something we should keep in mind

hotmail.com

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Melbourne had uncontrolled community transmission. Our cases are tracked to known clusters. 15 of them are travel related, the remainder are nursing homes/private clusters. Big big difference.

At the moment, but if numbers rise, then that means it's back in the community again. Hospital capacity is surely only a factor in deciding to go through with a lockdown.

Atlantic Dawn

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

The government should encourage the building of massive hand sanitizer factories and then when this all blows over in 5 years time they can be retro fitted to produce whiskey or gin.

The reverse has already happened. The West Cork distillery made a bottle I picked up in Lidl two or three weeks ago.

We have plenty of distilleries now so can use what's there.

ACitizenErased

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Never in the history of modern media have they made so much money from a world event

Not 9/11, not Princess Di passing, not Madelaine McCain going missing. None of them come close to how much of a cash machine Covid is for the media

That's something we should keep in mind

In my opinion RTE has been an absolute disgrace during this whole thing. Will never ever trust their journalism ever again.

hotmail.com

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Never in the history of modern media have they made so much money from a world event

Not 9/11, not Princess Di passing, not Madelaine McCain going missing. None of them come close to how much of a cash machine Covid is for the media

That's something we should keep in mind

Media publications have lost money and cut jobs in the last few months. Recessions are not something the media want.

ACitizenErased

hotmail.com wrote: »

At the moment, but if numbers rise, then that means it's back in the community again. Hospital capacity is surely only a factor in deciding to go through with a lockdown.

Whether we like it or not the only thing that actually matters in this whole thing is that our hospitals don't get overwhelmed. Overwhelmed hospitals = deaths. If the hospitals stay quiet then those who need urgent COVID care can get it.

bb1234567

Azatadine wrote: »

You can feel that the fears of a second wave are rising alright. Certainly the media are propagating that.

Go outside The fear is almost exclusively online

caveat emptor

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Irish Examiner have it now about the West Cork GAA teams. This could be a turning point for sports going ahead.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/sport/gaa/several-west-cork-gaa-clubs-stood-down-pending-covid-contact-assessment-1010306.html

We should implement a local lockdown until west cork gets its act together.
It’s only fair.

LiquidZeb

Gael23 wrote: »

Would that not just mean you need a booster every year or so? Along the lines of the flu injection

Oxford reckon it'll give a few years immunity. If enough people have the kop on to we could eradicate the virus if everyone gets vaccinated like they should.

bb1234567

Has the Kazakhstan thing been covered by any reputable news outlet?

That would seem almost like a joke how bad luck that would be for a second epidemic to occur during covid

stephenjmcd

As we've low numbers in general hosptial beds relating to covid its probably worth giving the numbers per hosptial. They're available in the report if anyone wants but to save the search.

Mater 3, CUH 2 , UHW 2, Connolly 1, Portiuncula 1, Sligo 1, Tallaght 1

ICU
Mater 3, Tallaght, Vincents, Sligo, Mercy, CUH & Beaumont all with 1 paitent in ICU

KrustyUCC

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Irish Examiner have it now about the West Cork GAA teams. This could be a turning point for sports going ahead.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/sport/gaa/several-west-cork-gaa-clubs-stood-down-pending-covid-contact-assessment-1010306.html

Clubs have been named on local sites alright

ACitizenErased

stephenjmcd wrote: »

As we've low numbers in general hosptial beds relating to covid its probably worth giving the numbers per hosptial. They're available in the report if anyone wants but to save the search.

Mater 3, CUH 2 , UHW 2, Connolly 1, Portiuncula 1, Sligo 1, Tallaght 1

You'd wonder if the 6 deaths have to do with the big drop in hospital figures earlier in the week

s1ippy

!



So Solid Crew gatchin around the real capital

ShineOn7

hotmail.com wrote: »

Media publications have lost money and cut jobs in the last few months. Recessions are not something the media want.

The recession effects almost all industries at the moment. Some more than most

I'm not sure about print newspaper sales, but website clicks must be through the roof overall for the Daily Mails (yuk), CNNs and more of the world

hotmail.com

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The recession effects almost all industries at the moment. Some more than most

I'm not sure about print newspaper sales, but website clicks must be through the roof overall for the Daily Mails (yuk), CNNs and more of the world

First thing companies cut in a downturn is the advertising budget. So media sites can get all the hits they like, companies can't afford to advertise because they have less money.

So again, recessions are bad for the media. In fact, the media regularly understate economic woes. Just look at the media's handling of the Celtic Tiger. They ignored all the signs of a recession.

SeaBreezes

Hector Savage wrote: »

Even I can see this is scaremongering horse**** ...

I wish... all of it is true unfortunately.
It was in reply to a poster who indicated only over 70s affected.
(Though thats not a reason to let this virus run riot anyway..)

But had to correct that thinking..

Gael23

hotmail.com wrote: »

Was this the criteria Melbourne used for their fresh lockdown?

Australia are going for eradication rather than suppression

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You'd wonder if the 6 deaths have to do with the big drop in hospital figures earlier in the week

Could be, we never get the deaths in general beds numbers whereas we do in ICU and if I remember right i think that's reported 1 death in the last week or so.

If that's the case then theres reasons why they didn't go to ICU.

Would be something that would add more detail for sure.

hmmm

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Irish Examiner have it now about the West Cork GAA teams. This could be a turning point for sports going ahead.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/sport/gaa/several-west-cork-gaa-clubs-stood-down-pending-covid-contact-assessment-1010306.html

I doubt it - we're going to see the occasional case in sports clubs, but I'd prefer to see people outside playing sports than inside doing anything. They'll be mixing with the same group of people either way.

If this had been someone with Covid indoors there would have been a high risk. It'll be interesting to to see if anyone at all tests positive as a consequence of meeting a Covid-infected individual outdoors.

ShineOn7

hotmail.com wrote: »

First thing companies cut in a downturn is the advertising budget. So media sites can get all the hits they like, companies can't afford to advertise because they have less money.

Fair point

Juggernaut websites like Daily Mail will be more than ok though. A quick glance there and it seems to be Google Adsense companies landing on their pages.

They'll probably use the recession as an excuse to lay off staff, outsource more articles to AI and still be up on profits this year

Renjit

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

The government should encourage the building of massive hand sanitizer factories and then when this all blows over in 5 years time they can be retro fitted to produce whiskey or gin.

Booze economy

YellowBucket

s1ippy wrote: »

!



So Solid Crew gatchin around the real capital

RTE Cork tends to run an old video loop on that background. There was a period of time when it had a shot of the bridge before its refurbishment, long after it was completed.

ShineOn7

Gael23 wrote: »

Australia are going for eradication rather than suppression

Fair play to them. I'd love to be there right now actually. New Zealand are going for this approach too (I'm not comparing us to them)

What other countries are going for eradication?

Malaysia also springs to mind as a country determined to completely stamp it out

(For the love of God, please no one mention China ;-)

hotmail.com

And the North ending their quarantine on foreign travel.

hotmail.com

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Fair point

Juggernaut websites like Daily Mail will be more than ok though. A quick glance there and it seems to be Google Adsense companies landing on their pages.

They'll probably use the recession as an excuse to lay off staff, outsource more articles to AI and still be up on profits this year

Oh wow that's a quick change of opinion there.

ACitizenErased

YellowBucket wrote: »

RTE Cork tends to run an old video loop on that background. There was a period of time when it had a shot of the bridge before its refurbishment, long after it was completed.

Unless he's sitting on the top of Merchant's Quay multi-story car park I'm fairly certain that's old.

giveitholly

Its been a while since this thread has been as busy as it has been this evening

ShineOn7

hotmail.com wrote: »

Oh wow that's a quick change of opinion there.

Read it again

I mentioned you had a fair point and then said why I think the biggest media companies won't make a loss overall from Covid. AI writing articles is getting more and more common

So, er no, not a change of opinion at all

ACitizenErased

Looks like the Brits have been cooking the testing books.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-inside-story-of-how-uks-chaotic-testing-regime-broke-all-the-rules-12022566

ShineOn7

giveitholly wrote: »

Its been a while since this thread has been as busy as it has been this evening

I've had far too much coffee today

Spanish Eyes

bb1234567 wrote: »

Go outside The fear is almost exclusively online

That might be why we have a little spike now. It all started with one case remember.

igCorcaigh

LiquidZeb wrote: »

It's more about t cells than antibodies. It's actually a good thing that antibodies fade as that means their job is done. The analogy I've seen is antibodies are the firemen putting the fire out and tcells are the fire department on call if they're needed.

So are these T cells the memory cells? I've so much brushing up to do on my immunology. Fascinating subject.

Away With The Fairies

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Fair play to them. I'd love to be there right now actually. New Zealand are going for this approach too (I'm not comparing us to them)

What other countries are going for eradication?

Malaysia also springs to mind as a country determined to completely stamp it out

(For the love of God, please no one mention China ;-)

We should also be going for eradication. Why are we inviting infection in?

fritzelly

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Irish Examiner have it now about the West Cork GAA teams. This could be a turning point for sports going ahead.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/sport/gaa/several-west-cork-gaa-clubs-stood-down-pending-covid-contact-assessment-1010306.html

Just goes to show even tho we are detecting tiny amounts from people who go for a test it is still out there in people who don't even know they have it

Being asymptomatic is the biggest problem with this virus

fritzelly

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In my opinion RTE has been an absolute disgrace during this whole thing. Will never ever trust their journalism ever again.

RTE have a specialist trawling Twitter feeds for the news (you may laugh but...)

ACitizenErased

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

We should also be going for eradication. Why are we inviting infection in?

It is not even remotely possible to eradicate the virus as a member of the EU

ixoy

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

We should also be going for eradication. Why are we inviting infection in?

Made a bit more difficult when we're attached to another country.

Plumbthedepths

is_that_so wrote: »

Indeed, especially being told they need to grow up!

Yet some of the lowest case numbers in Europe . True we really need to grow up.

timmy_mallet

fritzelly wrote: »

Just goes to show even tho we are detecting tiny amounts from people who go for a test it is still out there in people who don't even know they have it

Being asymptomatic is the biggest problem with this virus

I think it might be the dying, really

SeaBreezes

fritzelly wrote: »

Just goes to show even tho we are detecting tiny amounts from people who go for a test it is still out there in people who don't even know they have it

Being asymptomatic is the biggest problem with this virus

And if I DO get it (and hopefully not) I'd be hoping I'm an asymptomatic..

ShineOn7

77% of cases reported today are under 25 years of age


So community transmission has increased then?

Lyle

ShineOn7 wrote: »

77% of cases reported today are under 25 years of age


So community transmission has increased then?

At the brief they said the vast majority were linked in clusters, with some of the travel cases also linked to (or starting?) clusters. Community transmission still representing a very low percentage of cases they're catching.

Utopia Parkway

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

We should also be going for eradication. Why are we inviting infection in?

Jack Lambert was on the Tonight Show last night and said he didn’t think elimination of the virus was possible in Ireland. Granted others would disagree with him. Either way it would be extremely difficult.

ShineOn7

Gov.ie/Reddit summary from a member there called Laura who transcribes the highlights of the briefings


New Cases: 23
Denotified Cases: N/A
Total Cases: 25,565
New Deaths: 6
Denotified: 1
Total Deaths: 1,743


As of Tuesday 7th July

• Total cases: 25,543
• Hospitalised: 3,328
• Currently hospitalised: 13
• ICU: 436
• Current ICU: 9
• Healthcare workers: 8,265
• Clusters: 1,994
• Cases associated with clusters: 13,019

In last 14 days

• Total cases notified: 170
• Occurred in last 14 days: 140
• Average age: 34
• Underlying conditions: 29%
• Healthcare workers: 45%
• Cases in Dublin: 55
• Cases in Kildare: 23
• Cases in Sligo: 16
• Other counties 46

Residential Settings (Includes nursing homes)

• Clusters: 462
• Total Cases: 7411
• Total Deaths: 1104

Nursing Homes

• Clusters: 261
• Total Cases: 5832
• Total Deaths: 983

Modelling & Statistics

• Average of 1 death per day
• Average of 10 in ICU day on day
• Over 6000 tests done - over 50% increase
• Small increase in number of positive cases
• 14 day cumulative incidence is a very good indicator of active infection in community - this has risen.
• As of today about 4 per 100,000. This is a little higher this week than the last 2 weeks
• To a certain extent this is expected as people move freely

• Confirmed case count per day, going back 6 weeks from today - broadly speaking very low levels of disease, nothing to be concerned of.
• Especially three weeks ago where 61 cases were confirmed total.
• Last two weeks we have seen little bit more incidence cases

• Increase of cases means an increase in reproductive number - this is unreliable when you have low numbers.
• We have one (artifically high) of 2.49 - this is very deliberately comparing three weeks ago against this week
• Imperial model gives an estimate of 0.8 - this is based on the number of deaths, and fortunately we haven't seen a large increase
• Best estimate is a statistical method combining a number of factors. This gives our reproductive number of at or just above 1

• Cases arising in different settings - last week very low in LTRC.
• 3 weeks ago there were no outbreaks, however this is on the rise (including travel related)
• Closely monitoring age distribution of cases, excluding those in healthcare and LTRC.
• Seeing more cases in younger people - this is being very carefully monitored, along with the nature of transmission

• 60% of cases are close contact with confirmed cases
• Others are community, others healthcare
• 15-20% travel related

10000maniacs

Expect a huge second wave next month here in Ireland courtesy of holidaymakers returning from Spain, Portugal and France et al.

ixoy

10000maniacs wrote: »

Expect a huge second wave next month here in Ireland courtesy of holidaymakers returning from Spain, Portugal and France et al.

Are there huge waves in France, Germany, etc from people returning from holidays to Spain, Portugal, etc? Irish people aren't the only ones to to go to Spain.