Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Plumbthedepths

caveat emptor wrote: »

not arsed

An ignorant and lazy reply. Not surprised. You have a good night.
To follow your edit. Your points are nonsense, most of Europe declared an emergency which allowed the closure of borders we didn't.

jobeenfitz

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

There is no law at present preventing you travelling to another European country, do you expect the government to enact a law to prevent travel to a fellow EU member?

I was in Spain for most of the winter. I'm back a week. Hoping to go for a long stay again September. I wore a mask in Spain in shops and public transport. I don't get all the fear.

fritzelly

jobeenfitz wrote: »

I was in Spain for most of the winter. I'm back a week. Hoping to go for a long stay again September. I wore a mask in Spain in shops and public transport. I don't get all the fear.

So you're the reason for the surge in cases

Plumbthedepths

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'm asking what exactly this green list that's coming means as far as the law and travel goes. Not what's at present, but what will be in the future with the green list

If it's the Government just giving "recommendations" again then they'll be ignored

There is no law at present regarding travel, an advisory only is in place. I can also confidently predict there won't be one either. Firstly the government will not go against Brussels secondly banning travel will put pressure on the government to pay compensation for holidays cancelled. Much easier to have individuals trying to shame others into not travelling, as evidenced on this and other threads.

ShineOn7

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

There is no law at present regarding travel, an advisory only is in place. I can also confidently predict there won't be one either. Firstly the government will not go against Brussels secondly banning travel will put pressure on the government to pay compensation for holidays cancelled. Much easier to have individuals trying to shame others into not travelling, as evidenced on this and other threads.

Then - again - what the hell is the Green List all about then?

fritzelly

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Then - again - what the hell is the Green List all about then?

Half arsed attempt at pretending to look like they know what they are doing

Should have been done by the 9th, pushed out to the 20th - probably pushed out again and some weak arsed list of countries in Europe

caveat emptor

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

An ignorant and lazy reply. Not surprised. You have a good night.
To follow your edit. Your points are nonsense, most of Europe declared an emergency which allowed the closure of borders we didn't.

Ok don't call me lazy.
That's rude.

So while most people were saying "how could we possibly close the border , but Brussels?" several countries did it before us. Austria was the first. They like Italy but they said **** this ****.

Also who are you calling ignorant. What's your deal. I understand you needed things to go back to normal and hospitals to reopen for an urgent family medical matter.


Don't let that cloud your judgement though on what's right for the nation. I'd do the same by the way.

Why are you calling me lazy and ignorant?

caveat emptor

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

An ignorant and lazy reply. Not surprised. You have a good night.
To follow your edit. Your points are nonsense, most of Europe declared an emergency which allowed the closure of borders we didn't.

To prove I'm not lazy.......here's a post from 4 months ago.......

caveat emptor wrote: »

It is completely possible to have border checks / controls and it occurs regularly in Europe due to migrant crisis mainly.
People get pulled off the bus going from Dublin to Holyhead despite the common travel area. I wonder how many borders people have actually crossed.

It's not all Ryanair and lollipops out in mainland Europe.

"A Schengen state is permitted to reinstate border controls with another Schengen country for a short period where there is a serious threat to that state's "public policy or internal security" or when the "control of an external border is no longer ensured due to exceptional circumstances"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scheng...order_controls

ShineOn7

fritzelly wrote: »

Half arsed attempt at pretending to look like they know what they are doing

Should have been done by the 9th, pushed out to the 20th - probably pushed out again and some weak arsed list of countries in Europe

And I'm guessing they will be more "recommendations" and not compulsory right?

Ladies and gentlemen; our spineless Government

dfx-

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Gov.ie/Reddit summary from a member there called Laura who transcribes the highlights of the briefings


New Cases: 23
Denotified Cases: N/A
Total Cases: 25,565
New Deaths: 6
Denotified: 1
Total Deaths: 1,743


As of Tuesday 7th July

• Total cases: 25,543
• Hospitalised: 3,328
• Currently hospitalised: 13
• ICU: 436
• Current ICU: 9
• Healthcare workers: 8,265
• Clusters: 1,994
• Cases associated with clusters: 13,019

In last 14 days

• Total cases notified: 170
• Occurred in last 14 days: 140
• Average age: 34
• Underlying conditions: 29%
• Healthcare workers: 45%
• Cases in Dublin: 55
• Cases in Kildare: 23
• Cases in Sligo: 16
• Other counties 46

Residential Settings (Includes nursing homes)

• Clusters: 462
• Total Cases: 7411
• Total Deaths: 1104

Nursing Homes

• Clusters: 261
• Total Cases: 5832
• Total Deaths: 983

Modelling & Statistics

• Average of 1 death per day
• Average of 10 in ICU day on day
• Over 6000 tests done - over 50% increase
• Small increase in number of positive cases
• 14 day cumulative incidence is a very good indicator of active infection in community - this has risen.
• As of today about 4 per 100,000. This is a little higher this week than the last 2 weeks
• To a certain extent this is expected as people move freely

• Confirmed case count per day, going back 6 weeks from today - broadly speaking very low levels of disease, nothing to be concerned of.
• Especially three weeks ago where 61 cases were confirmed total.
• Last two weeks we have seen little bit more incidence cases

• Increase of cases means an increase in reproductive number - this is unreliable when you have low numbers.
• We have one (artifically high) of 2.49 - this is very deliberately comparing three weeks ago against this week
• Imperial model gives an estimate of 0.8 - this is based on the number of deaths, and fortunately we haven't seen a large increase
• Best estimate is a statistical method combining a number of factors. This gives our reproductive number of at or just above 1

• Cases arising in different settings - last week very low in LTRC.
• 3 weeks ago there were no outbreaks, however this is on the rise (including travel related)
• Closely monitoring age distribution of cases, excluding those in healthcare and LTRC.
• Seeing more cases in younger people - this is being very carefully monitored, along with the nature of transmission

• 60% of cases are close contact with confirmed cases
• Others are community, others healthcare
• 15-20% travel related

We're talking of case numbers of less than one per county. 10 cases a day for two weeks, only four a day in Dublin. We're talking percentages of low numbers, the virus is clearly not running wild. I'd find that R value (as high as London) very hard to believe.

fritzelly

dfx- wrote: »

We're talking of case numbers of less than one per county. 10 cases a day in two weeks. We're talking percentages of low numbers. I'd find that R value (as high as London) very hard to believe.

If 5 positive people pass it on to 5 other people that gives an R0 of 1 - what's hard to believe?

Goldengirl

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

There is no law at present regarding travel, an advisory only is in place. I can also confidently predict there won't be one either. Firstly the government will not go against Brussels secondly banning travel will put pressure on the government to pay compensation for holidays cancelled. Much easier to have individuals trying to shame others into not travelling, as evidenced on this and other threads.

No shaming . . Go wherever you want , but you have to see that people need to isolate for 14 days on return.
I see nothing wrong with travelling if this is done.

JP Liz V1

65,000 new US cases

ShineOn7

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

65,000 new US cases

I think they're looking at a 2 year hangover from this and maybe even a 2 year virus tail

Tokyo

caveat emptor wrote: »

not arsed, points still valid to said discourse.

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

An ignorant and lazy reply. Not surprised. You have a good night.

Mod: Both of you, cut it out. If you can't engage in reasonable debate, and/or not personalize your posts, then don't post.

caveat emptor

Not great for long time recovery.......


https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1281424163891224577?s=21

Rob A. Bank

Scientific papers are emerging about the Coronavirus Disease Exposure and Spread from Nightclubs, South Korea

"At least 246 cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have been linked to nightclubs in Seoul, South Korea. During the April 30–May 5 holiday, young adults from across the country who visited nightclubs in Seoul contracted COVID-19 and spread it nationally.

To conduct contact tracing for this outbreak, we used multiple forms of advanced information technology, including location data from mobile devices, credit card payment history, geographic positioning service data, drug utilization review, public transportation transit pass records, and closed-circuit television footage.

Of the 41,612 total tests conducted by May 25, a total of 35,827 (86.1%) were conducted on Itaewon nightclub visitors, 5,785 (13.9%) on contacts of case-patients linked to the Itaewon nightclubs, and 1,627 (3.9%) tests conducted on anonymous persons."



Our contact tracing is no match for the South Korean system. But with our really low levels of infection, we have a fleeting chance to stop infection coming in from hot spots around the world.

Unfortunately we are failing to do that.

WHY ?

petes

I've nothing to add but that contact tracing is mental!

Gruffalux

"Drug Utilisation Review". Haha those South Koreans are living in the future

Was like that for a while in Vietnam. You had to give your details when buying anything that could reduce a fever.

stephenjmcd

10000maniacs wrote: »

Not to the Irish.

Yes to the Irish, what are you not understanding about this?? All EU countries have been allowed in since borders reopened not just Schengen.

Third countries outside of the European block that are allowed by the EU will soon be allowed to travel into the block

stephenjmcd

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Then - again - what the hell is the Green List all about then?

Green list will simply be a list of countries where if you return to Ireland from you wont have to to self isolate for 14 days.

Gael23

Looking at the detail behind yesterday’s figures while unwelcome I don’t see a huge cause for panic. Being mostly young people few will require medical attention which is the main flag. That said many will have parents and grandparents to pass it on to if they don’t isolate properly

10000maniacs

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yes to the Irish, what are you not understanding about this?? All EU countries have been allowed in since borders reopened not just Schengen.

Third countries outside of the European block that are allowed by the EU will soon be allowed to travel into the block

I was under the impression there was a 14 day quarantine period but apologies if that is not the case anymore. Rules seem to be changing rapidly. Anyway it is still a huge risk for Irish people to travel to Spain in huge numbers. It will bite us hard down the line.

is_that_so

dfx- wrote: »

We're talking of case numbers of less than one per county. 10 cases a day for two weeks, only four a day in Dublin. We're talking percentages of low numbers, the virus is clearly not running wild. I'd find that R value (as high as London) very hard to believe.

It can jump when you have a large rise in very low numbers. Nolan has also said it's difficult to predict with any level of accuracy at such low levels. The message from yesterday is be careful. Whatever sense we can make of R0 we've had it drilled into us that R0>1 is bad.

wadacrack

This does not sound good at all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhyEBIpaIaM

MickeyLeari

is_that_so wrote: »

It can jump when you have a large rise in very low numbers. Nolan has also said it's difficult to predict with any level of accuracy at such low levels. The message from yesterday is be careful. Whatever sense we can make of R0 we've had it drilled into us that R0>1 is bad.

On RTÉ radio this morning. Saying the message is to be cautious. However, the full media response this morning has been massive panic.

spookwoman

Gael23 wrote: »

Looking at the detail behind yesterday’s figures while unwelcome I don’t see a huge cause for panic. Being mostly young people few will require medical attention which is the main flag. That said many will have parents and grandparents to pass it on to if they don’t isolate properly

And it's this line of thinking that is causing the R number to increase. F*ck sake just because young people are getting it does not mean they are not going to have long term damage done to their organs!

10000maniacs

is_that_so wrote: »

It can jump when you have a large rise in very low numbers. Nolan has also said it's difficult to predict with any level of accuracy at such low levels. The message from yesterday is be careful. Whatever sense we can make of R0 we've had it drilled into us that R0>1 is bad.

Only one in ten people have been tested in Ireland so far. Figures for transmission could be a lot higher than what is reported.

MickeyLeari

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Green list will simply be a list of countries where if you return to Ireland from you wont have to to self isolate for 14 days.

I am wondering who will be on this green list.

The response now from employers is a little worrying - what if you go to a green list country in good faith and then They are taken off the list a few days before you return.

is_that_so

MickeyLeari wrote: »

On RTÉ radio this morning. Saying the message is to be cautious. However, the full media response this morning has been massive panic.

TBH I don't know who they think their target readers are, a 12 year old could follow most of the briefings. Bad news sells I guess but they are not doing us any proper public service with their generally woeful reporting of COVID-19.

LiquidZeb

wadacrack wrote: »

This does not sound good at all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhyEBIpaIaM

I'd put more faith in a daily mail or sun article than I would a YouTube video

is_that_so

10000maniacs wrote: »

Only one in ten people have been tested in Ireland so far. Figures for transmission could be a lot higher than what is reported.

Serological tests elsewhere suggest that is not the case. We have enough to adjust to without obsessing about a rampant hidden virus, a scenario also not borne out by the evidence of other countries.

ZX7R

MickeyLeari wrote: »

I am wondering who will be on this green list.

The response now from employers is a little worrying - what if you go to a green list country in good faith and then They are taken off the list a few days before you return.

All ready been stated by government that if this happens you will be requested to qurantine for the two weeks.

MickeyLeari

is_that_so wrote: »

TBH I don't know who they think their target readers are, a 12 year old could follow most of the briefings. Bad news sells I guess but they are not doing us any proper public service with their generally woeful reporting of COVID-19.

I was being a little facetious yesterday about a 6 week shut down. But people were saying that yesterday in meetings - the fear factor is there.

I was out and about in town yesterday. Dame Lane was quiet, places were pleasant, it felt safe and many were wearing masks (with the notable exception of the feral teenagers on the Luas who were knocking lumps out of each other).

MickeyLeari

ZX7R wrote: »

All ready been stated by government that if this happens you will be requested to qurantine for the two weeks.

What quarantine is this? There is no quarantine and that is not Government Policy.

Plus - I think my key question is in respect to employees who will be put in a difficult position if advice changes when they are away.

YellowBucket

10000maniacs wrote: »

Not to the Irish.

Spain is open to Irish visitors and has been since July 1st.

is_that_so

MickeyLeari wrote: »

I was being a little facetious yesterday about a 6 week shut down. But people were saying that yesterday in meetings - the fear factor is there.

I was out and about in town yesterday. Dame Lane was quiet, places were pleasant, it felt safe and many were wearing masks (with the notable exception of the feral teenagers on the Luas who were knocking lumps out of each other).

Fear should drive us not trap us. About 75% are expecting a second wave according to their market research. The next public health issue will be mental health.

spookwoman

MickeyLeari wrote: »

What quarantine is this? There is no quarantine and that is not Government Policy.

Plus - I think my key question is in respect to employees who will be put in a difficult position if advice changes when they are away.

tbh the advice is not to make unnecessary journeys outside the country. if you leave the country on holiday and the situation changes that's not the employers fault. People need to take responsibility for their own decisions.

YellowBucket

As I’m understanding it, a high reproductive rate in a small number of cases is more indicative of a cluster being detected and contained.

The worrying scenario is if you’ve high R0 and a large number of community transmission cases, which is what happens when it runs wild, as it is currently doing in the USA and Brazil.

If we start to see an uptick in the number of new cases, that’s when I would start to become concerned about a second wave.

Ireland could easily become too complacent about this too. I’m seeing a lot of evidence of people saying things like “ah sure there’s no virus here” and so on.

We also can’t engage in exceptionalism if we’ve borders open to “hot zones” like direct flights from Dallas to Dublin for example.

I don’t think our airport measures are good enough. They’re relying far too much on people behaving sensibly and should be trying to target issues like testing or quarantine people (including Irish nationals) flying in from high risk places.

By not doing that we are just reducing the likelihood of being able to operate “business as usual” in Ireland and it’s of no advantage to us or to the incoming passengers to be too relaxed about this.

It still feels like we are afraid to offend, particularly the Americans, yet they didn’t think twice about banning us at a whim back in the early stages of the outbreak.

Also the CTA, particularly Boris and laissez faire herd immunity mentality in charge of the U.K. government at the moment doesn’t bode well.

Widdensushi

10000maniacs wrote: »

Only one in ten people have been tested in Ireland so far. Figures for transmission could be a lot higher than what is reported.

I doubt if one in ten have been tested, health care workers etc have been tested multiple times. There waiting time was too long for tests so people that had the virus could have been recovered by the time they got the test so that doesn't give the full picture either.

ChelseaRentBoy

Roaring trade in Killarny yesterday with American tourists apparently.

Gruffalux

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Was like that for a while in Vietnam. You had to give your details when buying anything that could reduce a fever.

Haha I thought it was a yokes were mediocre but the grass was great type of nightclub review thing

copeyhagen

spookwoman wrote: »

tbh the advice is not to make unnecessary journeys outside the country. if you leave the country on holiday and the situation changes that's not the employers fault. People need to take responsibility for their own decisions.

thats great, but whats your opinion on the govt letting in a constant flow of visitors to this Country? i see 5 airplanes from the US this morning, of about 200 airplanes landing today.

thats ok though is it? tell the Irish not to leave while letting everyone else in.

tom1ie

ZX7R wrote: »

All ready been stated by government that if this happens you will be requested to qurantine for the two weeks.

Requested lol!
It should be mandatory and enforced.
When I say mandatory I mean more mandatory than how mandatory it is to wear a mask on public transport.
Which turns out isn’t really mandatory, it kinda is but isn’t really.

spookwoman

copeyhagen wrote: »

thats great, but whats your opinion on the govt letting in a constant flow of visitors to this Country? i see 5 airplanes from the US this morning, of about 200 aurplanes landing today.

thats ok though is it? tell the Irish not to leave while eltting everyone else in.

It's all about money. I don't agree with letting people in for holidays, especially the US but we don't have a government with a pair of balls to just say no.

mr zulu

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

Roaring trade in Killarny yesterday with American tourists apparently.

More false news, I work in killarney, not a sign of American tourists only Irish holiday makers.

tom1ie

copeyhagen wrote: »

thats great, but whats your opinion on the govt letting in a constant flow of visitors to this Country? i see 5 airplanes from the US this morning, of about 200 airplanes landing today.

thats ok though is it? tell the Irish not to leave while letting everyone else in.

It’s an absolute disgrace tbh and politicians aren’t addressing it nor are the media asking the question, bar Sharon on last nights 9 o clock.

Igotadose

copeyhagen wrote: »

thats great, but whats your opinion on the govt letting in a constant flow of visitors to this Country? i see 5 airplanes from the US this morning, of about 200 airplanes landing today.

thats ok though is it? tell the Irish not to leave while letting everyone else in.

None of it has the force of law. It's a mass reliance on the 'kindness of strangers.' Well, guess what - lots of them aren't kind.

You can holiday all you want outside Ireland, if the country in question lets you in.

If we don't want people coming from overseas (with the exception of the UK) tell them no. And turn them around at airports. And if they get in somehow, back out you go.

Short of that, you're going to let the disease in.

is_that_so

copeyhagen wrote: »

thats great, but whats your opinion on the govt letting in a constant flow of visitors to this Country? i see 5 airplanes from the US this morning, of about 200 aurplanes landing today.

thats ok though is it? tell the Irish not to leave while eltting everyone else in.

There seems to be an assumption with airports that we will be back to March. Even in countries who have seen imported cases they have been small in number and we are far better able to deal with it now. Some of the suggestions are draconian and disproportionate to the actual risk.