Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

jobeenfitz

Eod100 wrote: »

That's only 1 flight though. I just think the risk is there if it's from area with very high concentration of virus to low. It might be blown out of proportion but with current guidelines there's literally nothing stopping people travelling for non-essential reasons and not self-isolating. No piece of paper of phone calls (even if everyone is called) will change that so can understand people's concerns.

I know government said they couldn't do mandatory quarantine because they wouldn't have enough hotel rooms but if it's for high risk areas, it might discourage people meaning less would travel.

Im back from Spain 9 days and got no call.

is_that_so

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

Micheál Martin is now further patronising young people, proclaiming to the media that "no-one is invincible". If that's the case then stop allowing tourists from the US into Ireland, you space cadet! I despair...

That's actually a Holohan line, before he stepped away.

Eod100

iamwhoiam wrote: »

The absolute irony of MM telling people not to holiday abroad while allowing Americans holiday here . Jesus you couldn’t make it up

Yeah seems like a massive contradiction. People might say feck it, I'll go to a country with lower or similar risk instead so sure. Seems completely unsustainable tbh

YellowBucket

is_that_so wrote: »

That's actually a Holohan line, before he stepped away.

To be fair they’re parallel issues & both have potential consequences, but we are ignoring the elephant in the room because it has a tendency to kick back hard.

Had we just followed the Schengen line on it we would have had the cover of all of those countries moving in unison.

Now if we ban US inbound tourism it will be all over Fox, CNN etc specifically referring to Ireland.

Santy2015

ACitizenErased wrote: »

He’s trying to keep things sweet with the US. He won’t do **** all and I guarantee it.

And yet there’s the real possibility that phase 4 will be delayed!!! I’ve never been so pissed off

is_that_so

Eod100 wrote: »

I think there definitely could be a part of that. The other thing is how are decisions being made.

Is it through the mixed cabinet with FF Taosieach and FG Tanaiste?

At least Varadkar who I'm no fan of had clear mandate and seemed to be assertive. Get sense that Martin is especially affected by public perception so seems decision on 20th July could be motivated by reaction if pubs are delayed opening or if they're opened and there's a spike.

It's the bedding in period of a new government. It was easier in a way for the last one as it came right at the end of their watch with experienced people in place. That said, you can see a different mood to it already and not necessarily a good one.

ACitizenErased

NPHET can’t come out and say stop all travel in the public because it’s not their decision. I’ve a feeling they’ve recommended it to cabinet and cabinet have basically said no. It makes no sense for Glynn to be so concerned about travel without advising the government to stop it.

Eod100

ACitizenErased wrote: »

He’s trying to keep things sweet with the US. He won’t do **** all and I guarantee it.

Trump is likely gone in November, they will still use Shannon and US stops non US citizens or residents. Time for someone to take some leadership here.

Ae Fond Kiss

Eod100 wrote: »

Think it would be tomorrow. Think some are marching at home on virtually, no joke. Probably that bonfires are discouraged but guess there will inevitably be a few

11th night, the night of 11/12 July is a biggie for bonfires etc. i.e tonight

jobeenfitz

iamwhoiam wrote: »

The absolute irony of MM telling people not to holiday abroad while allowing Americans holiday here . Jesus you couldn’t make it up

FF are rotten, Charlie, Bertie and many more. Cute hoorism at its best. MM, Willie from limerick and a few more all very much part of that past.

FG not much better, selling first mobile licence to Denis.

SF just can't be trusted to run this country.

Labour a joke.

Doesn't matter who we vote for unless u want your TD to write to council, hse or indeed you want a bit of tar in your local pothole.

It just shows how bad yanks and brits governments are when our shower are possibly better of the three.

Sad world, how did we humans last this long?

owlbethere

ACitizenErased wrote: »

NPHET essentially declared masks null and void when they said they were more of a danger than a positive at the beginning. There was no going back in the public’s mind after that was said

NPHET was the Irish response to the virus crisis. American tourists weren't here to her our team tell us masks we're useless.

Eod100

is_that_so wrote: »

It's the bedding in period of a new government. It was easier in a way for the last one as it came right at the end of their watch with experienced people in place. That said, you can see a different mood to it already and not necessarily a good one.

Yeah and think Martin probably only used to being a minister when FF were in gov with smaller parties say and could call shots easier.

is_that_so

YellowBucket wrote: »

To be fair they’re parallel issues & both have potential consequences, but we are ignoring the elephant in the room because it has a tendency to kick back hard.

Had we just followed the Schengen line on it we would have had the cover of all of those countries moving in unison.

Now if we ban US inbound tourism it will be all over Fox, CNN etc specifically referring to Ireland.

We aren't in Schengen so that's moot. All the way through our approach was to push essential travel only. With airline traffic so low it didn't need to be anything else. It doesn't become an elephant unless it turns out to be an actual problem. Most countries have seen very limited rises from renewed travel. We also need to start trusting our testing systems. No matter how this latest blame game concludes we will still have emerging cases to test, isolate and contact trace.

Plumbthedepths

I don't get this praise for Leo and the abuse towards MM? ( Personally both are useless)
Leo abdicated all decision making to Nphet , why didn't he call a halt to inward US travel he was still Taoiseach up to a few weeks ago. He was aware of the sh*tstorm in the states.
Martin is a g*b****e his only goal was to become Taoiseach, now that he is he hasn't a clue how to do the job.

YellowBucket

owlbethere wrote: »

I completely agree with you. MM was all talk in opposition but he's clearly not fit to take over now. We worked so hard for months to suppress this virus and its absolutely shocking what our government is doing allowing people from badly affected areas in to holiday here putting people and the health and safety of our population at risk. They are recommending non essential travel and we have recommendations for 'staycations' from the media and other places - recommending for us to holiday alongside these American tourists risking more infections along with the people who work and staff tourist attractions and activities.

We have fcuked up our chances of a successful airbridgeswith other European countries who have the virus under control too. Why would other people who might care about their health and the health of their family come here if they think they are going to be holidaying around Americans who are badly hit.

I get it that tourism has been hit hard here in Ireland but why should we put the health and safety of our people at risk for one summer?

It may also reduce both domestic and EU tourism.

Forgetting for a moment about European tourists, we’ve a very wealthy domestic market that can’t go abroad easily and would take up the slack at home in a big way.

We spend significantly more money as tourists abroad than we earn from inbound tourism to Ireland. So the spending power is absolutely present.

However, if you’re going to be in some hotel with people who’ve possibly just flown in from high risk location sin the USA, definitely without testing and likely flouting self isolation requirements, it suddenly stops being an attractive prospect and you will probably just sit out the summer spending far less and avoiding tourist areas.

You’ll certainly see that if there’s an outbreak in a hotel or something like that over the next few weeks.

It’s an idiotic policy from all points of view and just seems to show a certain leprechaunish side of Ireland that can’t help being somewhat sycophantic towards the US.

It’s not party political, it’s deeply embedded culturally due to the mass emigration to the USA in the 19th and 20th century.

is_that_so

ACitizenErased wrote: »

NPHET can’t come out and say stop all travel in the public because it’s not their decision. I’ve a feeling they’ve recommended it to cabinet and cabinet have basically said no. It makes no sense for Glynn to be so concerned about travel without advising the government to stop it.

It will remain a No, especially as the EU is keen for countries to resume flight connections. Expressing concern about public health is what they do and have been doing. At one point the CMO did comment that governments get advice from all sorts of sources , but are the final decision makers.

ACitizenErased

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I don't get this praise for Leo and the abuse towards MM? ( Personally both are useless)
Leo abdicated all decision making to Nphet , why didn't he call a halt to inward US travel he was still Taoiseach up to a few weeks ago. He was aware of the sh*tstorm in the states.
Martin is a g*b****e his only goal was to become Taoiseach, now that he is he hasn't a clue how to do the job.

There is no comparison between the leadership qualities of Varadkar versus Martin. And I voted for neither of their parties.

ShineOn7

Eod100 wrote: »

Trump is likely gone in November.

The last odds I saw (awhile ago admittedly) he was 11/10 Favourite to win with the Bookies

He has a staggering amount of supporters and what alternative have Americans got? There's video evidence of Joe Biden openly touching kids on stage that regularly makes it to the front page of Reddit

This is America's choice in November:




It's Trump Vs Hilary all over again

Plumbthedepths

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There is no comparison between the leadership qualities of Varadkar versus Martin. And I voted for neither of their parties.

I'm not comparing them at all. I don't believe either are capable of leadership. Leo was driven by whatever he thought was the public mood. Uninspiring no matter what department he was in charge of.
Martin is a fool and always has been, but a fool with ambition.

iamwhoiam

YellowBucket wrote: »

It may also reduce both domestic and EU tourism.

Forgetting for a moment about European tourists, we’ve a very wealthy domestic market that can’t go abroad easily and would take up the slack at home in a big way.

We spend significantly more money as tourists abroad than we earn from inbound tourism to Ireland. So the spending power is absolutely present.

However, if you’re going to be in some hotel with people who’ve possibly just flown in from high risk location sin the USA, definitely without testing and likely flouting self isolation requirements, it suddenly stops being an attractive prospect and you will probably just sit out the summer spending far less and avoiding tourist areas.

You’ll certainly see that if there’s an outbreak in a hotel or something like that over the next few weeks.

It’s an idiotic policy from all points of view and just seems to show a certain leprechaunish side of Ireland that can’t help being somewhat sycophantic towards the US.

It’s not party political, it’s deeply embedded culturally due to the mass emigration to the USA in the 19th and 20th century.

We had intended taking a few short break in Irish hotels this year . We have changed our minds now as we don’t fancy sharing lifts or pools with Americans who are allowed waltz in here and mingle with all and sundry . It will be day trips with a picnic now

Eod100

is_that_so wrote: »

It will remain a No, especially as the EU is keen for countries to resume flight connections. Expressing concern about public health is what they do and have been doing. At one point the CMO did comment that governments get advice from all sorts of sources , but are the final decision makers.

Thought being outside Schengen would have more flexibility. Schengen countries have common list already. Ireland were invited to take part but think with NI and CTA, UK had say and voted against so means we couldn't be included.

Know member states can decide public health policy but not sure if it stretches to travel.

MerlinSouthDub

From the dashboard, the number of positive test results has increased by 40 since yesterday. Just under 9000 tests yesterday so the positivity rate remains low

ACitizenErased

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

From the dashboard, the number of positive test results has increased by 40 since yesterday. Just under 9000 tests yesterday so the positivity rate remains low

41 to be exact. Bit of an increase again but there’s a couple of hospital admissions compared to yesterday.

Tests conducted last 24hrs: 8929
Positive tests last 24hrs: 41
Total tests last 7 days: 46255
Positivity rate last 7 days: 0.3%

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

41 to be exact. Bit of an increase again but there’s a couple of hospital admissions compared to yesterday.

Tests conducted last 24hrs: 8929
Positive tests last 24hrs: 41
Total tests last 7 days: 46255
Positivity rate last 7 days: 0.3%

0.3% postivity is still outstanding in my books. Targeted testing doing an excellent job.

The whole testing set up compared to at the start is night and day.

Would expect the hosptial numbers to fluctuate now even more so with low numbers in hospital. Always seems to be very little movement in terms of discharges at the weekend

MerlinSouthDub

stephenjmcd wrote: »

0.3% postivity is still outstanding in my books. Targeted testing doing an excellent job.

The whole testing set up compared to at the start is night and day.

Would expect the hosptial numbers to fluctuate now even more so with low numbers in hospital. Always seems to be very little movement in terms of discharges at the weekend

With the targeted testing, they are likely to be picking up a decent number of asymptomatic cases. It would be interesting if they told us how many of the daily cases were caught through the targeted testing versus test referral due to symptoms

Santy2015

The positivity rate is dropping everyday. As long as we keep testing between 8/10k a day we’ll find cases as well

KrustyUCC

Expecting poor numbers again today so

More ammo for Martin before phase 4

DebDynamite

is_that_so wrote: »

Saw somewhere that it was 16 people on the flight. That all sounds a bit like the "huge" numbers invading our ports back in March.

If you listen to the piece, you’ll hear that it was 16 people on one flight, however, other flights arriving in from the US that morning had 50/70 people on board

drunkmonkey

ACitizenErased wrote: »

41 to be exact. Bit of an increase again but there’s a couple of hospital admissions compared to yesterday.

We closed the schools at 43...we closed the country shortly after. Mandatory quarantine in specific locations is starting to look like the only show in town.
On the border question we can't stop them crossing the border but we sure as hell can stop them crossing border county southern borders, south Donegal border etc.

ACitizenErased

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Expecting poor numbers again today so

More ammo for Martin before phase 4

I’m expecting mid-30s

stephenjmcd

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

With the targeted testing, they are likely to be picking up a decent number of asymptomatic cases. It would be interesting if they told us how many of the daily cases were caught through the targeted testing versus test referral due to symptoms

Yeah it would be an excellent bit of information. The only pieces we've been given are 5 asymptomatic in 1 nursing home and another 1 in another nursing home. But they were given in the Dail as an example and the 1 case by the examiner.

Would be great to get a breakdown of postives from referals and postives in targeted areas. Not sure if its possible but reporting the total of cases that are asymptomatic might also be useful

stephenjmcd

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Expecting poor numbers again today so

More ammo for Martin before phase 4

he'd want to target the areas where the cases are occurring. We seem to be picking up clusters, big amounts related to travel and house parties at the moment.

I'd rather be in a controlled environment such as a pub than a house party at the moment.

KrustyUCC

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I’m expecting mid-30s

That wouldn't be bad in fairness

Can't wait for RTE to be harping about upward trend

stephenjmcd

KrustyUCC wrote: »

That wouldn't be bad in fairness

Can't wait for RTE to be harping about upward trend

An upward trend as Dr Glynn has stated many times wouldn't have been unexpected. Likewise prof Nolan said they knew cases would rise, but the main thing was to pinpoint where they were coming from and to keep a the cases at manageable levels and to be fair they seem to be fairly well on top of that.

We're doing 6,000 more tests a day than 2 weeks ago with a positivity rate of 0.3%

hotmail.com

We're too sychophantic to American culture and money.

The flights from America should be banned outright with no prejudice.

Some of the opposition from banning flights from America are coming from the Trump critics which is weird. Too much love for the Americans is dangerous.

Mortelaro

stephenjmcd wrote: »

0.3% postivity is still outstanding in my books. Targeted testing doing an excellent job.

The whole testing set up compared to at the start is night and day.

Would expect the hosptial numbers to fluctuate now even more so with low numbers in hospital. Always seems to be very little movement in terms of discharges at the weekend

Nursing home staff procedure local to me is a complete clothes change on arrival
They are now tested for Covid-19 forthnightly

Ae Fond Kiss

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I don't get this praise for Leo and the abuse towards MM? ( Personally both are useless)
Leo abdicated all decision making to Nphet , why didn't he call a halt to inward US travel he was still Taoiseach up to a few weeks ago. He was aware of the sh*tstorm in the states.
Martin is a g*b****e his only goal was to become Taoiseach, now that he is he hasn't a clue how to do the job.

Agreed. You'd swear we had swapped Abraham Lincoln for Donald Trump.

I suppose quoting from 'Mean Girls' is a great quality to have during a pandemic.

stephenjmcd

Mortelaro wrote: »

Nursing home staff procedure local to me is a complete clothes change on arrival
They are now tested for Covid-19 forthnightly

Thats interesting regarding the complete clothes change, had heard of places with staff being tested weekly myself.

KrustyUCC

stephenjmcd wrote: »

An upward trend as Dr Glynn has stated many times wouldn't have been unexpected. Likewise prof Nolan said they knew cases would rise, but the main thing was to pinpoint where they were coming from and to keep a the cases at manageable levels and to be fair they seem to be fairly well on top of that.

We're doing 6,000 more tests a day than 2 weeks ago with a positivity rate of 0.3%

100%

Things are still going well overall

You wouldn't think so over the last few days

wadacrack

stephenjmcd wrote: »

0.3% postivity is still outstanding in my books. Targeted testing doing an excellent job.

The whole testing set up compared to at the start is night and day.

Would expect the hosptial numbers to fluctuate now even more so with low numbers in hospital. Always seems to be very little movement in terms of discharges at the weekend

41 cases in one day would be a huge red flag with bars only open 1 week or so. Schools recommencing in about 6 or so might be difficult if this grows much more. This virus grows exponentially once numbers and the Ro go up. Theirs a reason Hong Kong went into some sort of lockdown after 50 cases or so with a 7 million population. Test and tracing becomes very difficult after 20 cases or so . South Korea tested 46,000 because of one positive case a few weeks ago. It lead to 160 positive cases. Its not quite as simple as you make it and can quickly spiral out of control. Theirs a strange positivity bias on this at the moment. Some patterns are pretty concerning and its only July.

stephenjmcd

KrustyUCC wrote: »

100%

Things are still going well overall

You wouldn't think so over the last few days

Nope, I'm not sure why people thought the likes of 10 cases a day would continue when you were bringing more people back to work, opening shops and shopping centres.

But none of the big recent clusters seem to be linked to any of them, Dr Glynn mentioned it on Thursday that none were linked to bars or restaurants. It was a vast majority of parties and travel

hotmail.com

Why aren't masks worn in pubs and restaurants?

Sure they are confined spaces and people will mix going to the toilet etc.

Another mixed message?

Eod100

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We closed the schools at 43...we closed the country shortly after. Mandatory quarantine in specific locations is starting to look like the only show in town.
On the border question we can't stop them crossing the border but we sure as hell can stop them crossing border county southern borders, south Donegal border etc.

I think there's a lot of differences between now and then too though. Have a proper contact tracing system and testing system set up which all had to effectively be built from scratch. People are very familiar with symptoms, social distancing, hand hygiene etc.

Schools are closed now, lot of people are working from home these days so less people on public transport or in offices, workplaces etc.

Even in settings where people are metting like pubs and restaurants generally the compliance seems good.

I don't tink regional lockdowns would be sustainable for a country the size of Ireland.

JJayoo

It will be interesting to see the general Irish reaction to the clusterfcuk that will be America in the coming weeks.

stephenjmcd

wadacrack wrote: »

41 cases in one day would be a huge red flag with bars only open 1 week or so. Schools recommencing in about 6 or so might be difficult if this grows much more. This virus grows exponentially once numbers and the Ro go up. Theirs a reason Hong Kong went into some sort of lockdown after 50 cases or so with a 7 million population. Test and tracing becomes very difficult after 20 cases or so . South Korea tested 46,000 because of one positive case a few weeks ago. It lead to 160 positive cases. Its not quite as simple as you make it and can quickly spiral out of control. Theirs a strange positivity bias on this at the moment. Some patterns are pretty concerning and its only July.

You relaise yes that they haven't traced any clusters back to bars or restaurants. We've been fairly well informed where these clusters are and how they're originating.

Forget about R0 for a minute, that's going to be stupidly high if you drop a cluster of cases into the mix when working off a low data set.

This isn't a postivity bias, its actual fact that we're at the moment very much on top of clusters, I saw a quote earlier I think it was from De Gauscun and it said along the lines of we haven't got uncontrolled spread, we know where these cases are and where they originate from. That's a success in my eyes.

Compared to 2 and 3 months ago when we had no idea where they were coming from.

"Its only July", why do you think its going somewhere?? We're going to have to learn to live with this and suggesting a mass lockdown again isn't realistic what so ever. People have to take personal responsibility for their actions but others need to learn that this isn't going anywhere and with more movement brings more cases.

Eod100

hotmail.com wrote: »

Why aren't masks worn in pubs and restaurants?

Sure they are confined spaces and people will mix going to the toilet etc.

Another mixed message?

Guess it's pretty messy putting it on and off between eating and drinking and as there settings where that happens probably seen as less practical. Was in pub the other night and all staff had them which was good to see

Mortelaro

wadacrack wrote: »

41 cases in one day would be a huge red flag with bars only open 1 week or so. Schools recommencing in about 6 or so might be difficult if this grows much more. This virus grows exponentially once numbers and the Ro go up. Theirs a reason Hong Kong went into some sort of lockdown after 50 cases or so with a 7 million population. Test and tracing becomes very difficult after 20 cases or so . South Korea tested 46,000 because of one positive case a few weeks ago. It lead to 160 positive cases. Its not quite as simple as you make it and can quickly spiral out of control. Theirs a strange positivity bias on this at the moment. Some patterns are pretty concerning and its only July.

Bars are definitely an issue, plenty anecdotal evidence of zero or near zero social distancing which is local home grown manna from heaven for the virus
But we won't see those spikes for maybe a fortnight, that's assuming they present for testing

is_that_so

hotmail.com wrote: »

Why aren't masks worn in pubs and restaurants?

Sure they are confined spaces and people will mix going to the toilet etc.

Another mixed message?

You can set up rules so all of that is minimised but it's not really practical as the mask would be on and off so often.

hotmail.com

JJayoo wrote: »

It will be interesting to see the general Irish reaction to the clusterfcuk that will be America in the coming weeks.

People are already angry. It's undermining government messaging on other matters as well.

We don't care who their president is, we just want the flights banned, at least temporarily.

Media here just want to personalise it all about Trump. We don't care. We just want the flights stopped.

AdamD

hotmail.com wrote: »

Why aren't masks worn in pubs and restaurants?

Sure they are confined spaces and people will mix going to the toilet etc.

Another mixed message?

Because people go there to eat and drink??