Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

WoollyRedHat

timmy_mallet wrote: »

It was the approach govts around the world took from day one. Why is different now. The virus is here.

Are you really trying to present people staying in their homes at this point in time until the virus passes as a workable solution? It's all about prevalence of the condition.

smurfjed

Taken from CSO.IE for 2019

Cause of death

Diseases of the Heart and Arteries:

Diseases of the circulatory system accounted for 8,989 deaths or an annual rate of 1.8 per 1,000 population. Of these, 4,163 were due to ischaemic heart disease and 1,627 to cerebrovascular disease. See tables 11 and 12, and figure 4.

Malignant Cancers:

There were 9,589 deaths from malignant neoplasms. This is equivalent to an annual rate of 1.9 per 1,000 population. See tables 11 and 12, and figure 4.

Lung Diseases:

Deaths from chronic lower respiratory disease numbered 1,767, pneumonia accounted for 980 deaths and 1,060 deaths resulted from all other respiratory diseases. See tables 11 and 12.

Accidents, suicides and other:

There were 1,393 deaths due to accidents, suicides and other external causes. Accidents accounted for 65.3% (909) of these deaths while suicides accounted for 30.2% (421). Of these 1,393 deaths, 934 (67.0%) were male. See tables 12, 13, 14 and 16.

30.8 %maglignantneoplasms30.8 %maglignantneoplasms
28.9 %circulatorydiseases28.9 %circulatorydiseases
4.5 %externalcauses4.5 %externalcauses
12.2 %respiratorydiseases12.2 %respiratorydiseases
23.6 %remainder23.6 %remainder
Source: CSO Ireland
Figure 4 Principal causes of death 2019
Age at death

The leading cause of death in 2019 varied widely by age group. Among those aged from 15 to 34 years, external causes of death including accidents, suicide and other ranked first (258 deaths). Among individuals aged 35-74, cancers were the leading cause while for those aged 75 and older, it was diseases of the heart and arteries. See table 12 and figure 5.

There were 25,438 deaths of persons aged 65 and over registered in 2019. This represents an annual death rate of 36.5 per 1,000 population aged 65 and over and represents a rate decrease of 1.6 when compared with 2018. See tables 1a, 1b and figure.

With the expectation that over 200 people would have died in a normal 3 month period from pneumonia, how are they differentiating between a COVID death and a pneumonia death?

mloc123

Any uproar about these saps out today? Or is that reserved for pubs only..

https://twitter.com/iamsaoirse_/status/1281960472229695489?s=19

Santy2015

Seems to be gaining legs now. Not a fan of the independent...
https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/were-fearful-many-publicans-suspect-they-will-be-barred-from-opening-39358703.html

WoollyRedHat

iamwhoiam wrote: »

If he tested positive he should be in isolation not at a party with 30 others . Its quite simple

'We all partied'.

Jim_Hodge

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

'We all partied'.

As was the case when that obnoxious comment was originally used: Oh no we all didn't.

Neamhshuntasach

The level of cases we're seeing now are probably the same level that were here a week ago when we had single digit figures. The daily testing looks like it's doubled. So we're just finding more of it out there. It's not like we were finding all cases with 4000 daily tests. I'd guess we're finding a lot of asymptomatic people. Just look at the positivity rate. 12 cases out of 5000 tests is the same positivity rate as 24 cases out of 10000 tests. But when we see 24 cases in a day. Guess which figure is the one that is focused on more? It ain't the number of tests.

WoollyRedHat

If people want to voice their dissatisfaction about
public health management including the current travel situation that allows tourists from countries that have high level of prevalence of virus into our country, with no guarantee that they will quarantine, then I urge you to contact your local TDs . You can find who are your current representatives at the link below:

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/members/tds/?tab=constituency&term=%2Fie%2Foireachtas%2Fhouse%2Fdail%2F33&constituency=

fritzelly

Santy2015 wrote: »

Seems to be gaining legs now. Not a fan of the independent...
https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/were-fearful-many-publicans-suspect-they-will-be-barred-from-opening-39358703.html

Sounds like the government don't know what to do so kick the can down the road - useless bunch of muppets

WoollyRedHat

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

As was the case when that obnoxious comment was originally used: Oh no we all didn't.

Exactly, meant to be ironic.

wadacrack

stephenjmcd wrote: »

You relaise yes that they haven't traced any clusters back to bars or restaurants. We've been fairly well informed where these clusters are and how they're originating.

Forget about R0 for a minute, that's going to be stupidly high if you drop a cluster of cases into the mix when working off a low data set.

This isn't a postivity bias, its actual fact that we're at the moment very much on top of clusters, I saw a quote earlier I think it was from De Gauscun and it said along the lines of we haven't got uncontrolled spread, we know where these cases are and where they originate from. That's a success in my eyes.

Compared to 2 and 3 months ago when we had no idea where they were coming from.

"Its only July", why do you think its going somewhere?? We're going to have to learn to live with this and suggesting a mass lockdown again isn't realistic what so ever. People have to take personal responsibility for their actions but others need to learn that this isn't going anywhere and with more movement brings more cases.

https://twitter.com/Aaron_Derfel/status/1282054133231624197

Utopia Parkway

Realistically it's hard not to see a rise in new cases over the next week or two. Every popular tourist area in the country today was absolutely jammers. Let's just hope it's a manageable increase.

Santy2015

fritzelly wrote: »

Sounds like the government don't know what to do so kick the can down the road - useless bunch of muppets

It’s getting on my tits now to be honest. House parties won’t stop they were happening anyway before Covid but at least will all pubs open, it’d be controlled, gives people the option and contact tracing easier. Maybe the pubs should make it a rule that the app be downloaded before entry? Obviously not all people have smartphones but not a bad way of helping them open. On the app I think all retail Workers should be made download it.

Goldengirl

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Dublin will be grand if locked down, it is the capital, everything on your doorstep, be fine.

Should be a passport control at all entrances to keep away the boggers lol :P

stephenjmcd

Boggles wrote: »

Is that true?

Fúcking hell he/she should be fired out of a cannon into the sea.

Reported in a few places now online, nothing official but the details seem to be accurate enough

stephenjmcd

Santy2015 wrote: »

Seems to be gaining legs now. Not a fan of the independent...
https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/were-fearful-many-publicans-suspect-they-will-be-barred-from-opening-39358703.html

LVA were told this morning it would depend on how this weekend went and so far no issues being reported. As predicted by many the first weekend would be busy and it would calm down after that

stephenjmcd

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

The level of cases we're seeing now are probably the same level that were here a week ago when we had single digit figures. The daily testing looks like it's doubled. So we're just finding more of it out there. It's not like we were finding all cases with 4000 daily tests. I'd guess we're finding a lot of asymptomatic people. Just look at the positivity rate. 12 cases out of 5000 tests is the same positivity rate as 24 cases out of 10000 tests. But when we see 24 cases in a day. Guess which figure is the one that is focused on more? It ain't the number of tests.

2 weeks ago we did just under 4k tests and were finding roughly 10 cases a day. Testing now is nearly at the 10k per day and roughly 20 cases per day. So 10 more cases for two thirds more testing. Positivity rate remains the same. Around 0.2 - 0.3%

fritzelly

Santy2015 wrote: »

It’s getting on my tits now to be honest. House parties won’t stop they were happening anyway before Covid but at least will all pubs open, it’d be controlled, gives people the option and contact tracing easier. Maybe the pubs should make it a rule that the app be downloaded before entry? Obviously not all people have smartphones but not a bad way of helping them open. On the app I think all retail Workers should be made download it.

Was thinking the other day you could easily have a system like clocking in to the bar using the COVID app - then if there was a case in a bar they could alert all people that were in the bar after them
Dunno how realistic that would be tho...but easy than taking the contact details of everyone

stephenjmcd

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Aaron_Derfel/status/1282054133231624197

And what has Montreal got to do with its only July do you think its going somewhere ??

On Thursday it was stated no clusters with bars and restaurants up to then

stephenjmcd

Dame Lane tonight
https://twitter.com/dublin_damo/status/1282025333433290755?s=19

ShineOn7

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Dame Lane tonight


"Not much here for the pearl clutchers to wet the bed over this weekend."

That's because the bars likely got a Gardai bollocking after last weekend

Polar101

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Dame Lane tonight

Not sure if those four people are socially distancing.

Anyway, looks like it was a one-off event, so no problem there.

fritzelly

Bars all locked up by the looks of it - what bars were open last weekend?

ShineOn7

ShineOn7 wrote: »

That's because the bars likely got a Gardai bollocking after last weekend

Many predicted that the first weekend would be crazy and then that it would all go quiet.

expectationlost

don't think this is quite that bad but https://twitter.com/KarrieKehoe/status/1282031644480864256

ShineOn7

fritzelly wrote: »

Bars all locked up by the looks of it - what bars were open last weekend?

Weren't some of them serving takeaway pints?

Berlin D2 on the same street was advertising a 24 hour re-opening party the week before with zero fcuks given. I'd imagine they were one of the culprits last Saturday night

expectationlost

Deleted User wrote: »

Many predicted that the first weekend would be crazy and then that it would all go quiet.

thers a difference between quiet and closed

caveat emptor

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

The level of cases we're seeing now are probably the same level that were here a week ago when we had single digit figures. The daily testing looks like it's doubled. So we're just finding more of it out there. It's not like we were finding all cases with 4000 daily tests. I'd guess we're finding a lot of asymptomatic people. Just look at the positivity rate. 12 cases out of 5000 tests is the same positivity rate as 24 cases out of 10000 tests. But when we see 24 cases in a day. Guess which figure is the one that is focused on more? It ain't the number of tests.

Ah the Donald defence. Nice logic.

imfml

expectationlost wrote: »

thers a difference between quiet and closed

Does it really matter if Soho is more than likely hopping and we are allowing the Brits in to tour the country?

stephenjmcd

fritzelly wrote: »

Bars all locked up by the looks of it - what bars were open last weekend?

Only those serving food, any of the ones doing takeaway which some in the picture were, didn't open this weekend.

There's also a heavy Garda presence in the area tonight making sure anywhere that is open is closed as per their licenced restaurant hours.

It was also as many said the first weekend as everywhere that's opened has had a busy first week before calming right down

igCorcaigh

Any thoughts on this reply?

50% of people not susceptible plus another 30% already exposed = approaching herd immunity in UK?

https://twitter.com/CatrionaColllns/status/1281733145851822080?s=19

Neamhshuntasach

caveat emptor wrote: »

Ah the Donald defence. Nice logic.

What are ye on about? Would ye feel better if we only tested 4000 and reported 10 cases? You really think there were only 4 cases in the entire ****ing country on the day we reported them?

gmisk

expectationlost wrote: »

don't think this is quite that bad but https://twitter.com/KarrieKehoe/status/1282031644480864256

That doesn't look bad tbh.
People in their own groups, door person doing their job at pyg

Eod100

fritzelly wrote: »

Bars all locked up by the looks of it - what bars were open last weekend?

Yeah Dame Tavern, Mercantile and Stag's Head all look closed there. Now I'm curious were any of them even in open last weekend!

stephenjmcd

expectationlost wrote: »

don't think this is quite that bad but https://twitter.com/KarrieKehoe/status/1282031644480864256

don't see any major issues there

fritzelly

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Any thoughts on this reply?

50% of people not susceptible plus another 30% already exposed = approaching herd immunity in UK?

https://twitter.com/CatrionaColllns/status/1281733145851822080?s=19

Sounds like that wacky Irish professor - whats her name?

Anyway a random tweet with nothing backing it up

stephenjmcd

Eod100 wrote: »

Yeah Dame Tavern, Mercantile and Stag's Head all look closed there. Now I'm curious were any of them even in open last weekend!

Mercantile and Dame Tavern were doing takeaway before this weekend. Stags head was closed and has been all along

Eod100

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Any thoughts on this reply?

50% of people not susceptible plus another 30% already exposed = approaching herd immunity in UK?

https://twitter.com/CatrionaColllns/status/1281733145851822080?s=19

Sounds like absolute b*llocks I'm afraid

Eod100

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Mercantile and Dame Tavern were doing takeaway before this weekend. Stags head was closed and has been all along

Guess the Gardai may have shut it down or did themselves with fear of that happening. Proper order too tbf

ACitizenErased

The t-cell theory is possible but I doubt it's 50%. Wouldn't say it's anywhere close to that.

Danzy

Eod100 wrote: »

Sounds like absolute b*llocks I'm afraid

Not as much as may be.

Spanish Eyes

Will all go back to normal ****e after the warnings for this weekend. The LVA or whatever they are called will do the necessary to ensure opening up on the 20th.

And then it's biz as usual after that. Hey Ho.

Polar101

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Any thoughts on this reply?

50% of people not susceptible plus another 30% already exposed = approaching herd immunity in UK?

Well, my question would be: why would getting a cold/other viruses give immunity from this (novel) coronavirus? Wouldn't that be a bit like being immune to lung cancer if you've had breast cancer - which doesn't happen as far as I'm aware.

Spanish Eyes

The ad block there spelt Shyte.

gmisk

Eod100 wrote: »

Sounds like absolute b*llocks I'm afraid

Completely made up dangerous rubbish from a Twitter account with the title "keep Ireland free"...ffs

gmisk

Polar101 wrote: »

Well, my question would be: why would getting a cold/other viruses give immunity from this (novel) coronavirus? Wouldn't that be a bit like being immune to lung cancer if you've had breast cancer - which doesn't happen as far as I'm aware.

It wouldn't....it's utter b#llocks

What Username Guidelines

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Any thoughts on this reply?

50% of people not susceptible plus another 30% already exposed = approaching herd immunity in UK?

https://twitter.com/CatrionaColllns/status/1281733145851822080?s=19

I’ve been following the original tweeter (@fatemperor) for a bit as I’m trying to get as many perspectives as possible. I change my mind on how I feel about this whole thing every day tbh.

He is retweeting analysis and his own analysis that seems at least interesting, general gist is that we’re seeing excess deaths but it’s following Farrs law of epidemics and is almost over, lockdown or no lockdown.

Most countries have returned to normal levels of deaths by now, Croatia and Israel are seeing resurgence due to locking down early and reopening when large proportion were still susceptible.

He’s certainly one of the more open posters on that side of the argument, crying out for people to analyse what he’s done and point out where he is wrong, whereas most others I had to stop following as they seemed to have ulterior motives and were just plain abusive to those asking questions.

He’s done interesting analysis of deaths in the states and Sweden by date of death as opposed to date of report, showing a very similar curve to each other, whether the state had a hard lockdown/soft lockdown/etc.

Having said that, I’m not sure how much of this is cognitive bias and how proportional my attention is to how much I’d like it to be true.

Goldengirl

stephenjmcd wrote: »

2 weeks ago we did just under 4k tests and were finding roughly 10 cases a day. Testing now is nearly at the 10k per day and roughly 20 cases per day. So 10 more cases for two thirds more testing. Positivity rate remains the same. Around 0.2 - 0.3%

Have to say your statistics and measured approach has calmed me down. Thanks .
Still annoyed over the American tourists inbound, but not as stressed as I was earlier .
It is good to know that the positivity rate is just 0.3% , but it was 0.2% .
Just concerned if these cases translate into rising numbers in hospital in the next week .

gmisk

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

I’ve been following the original tweeter (@fatemperor) for a bit as I’m trying to get as many perspectives as possible. I change my mind on how I feel about this whole thing every day tbh.

He is retweeting analysis and his own analysis that seems at least interesting, general gist is that we’re seeing excess deaths but it’s following Farrs law of epidemics and is almost over, lockdown or no lockdown.

Most countries have returned to normal levels of deaths by now, Croatia and Israel are seeing resurgence due to locking down early and reopening when large proportion were still susceptible.

He’s certainly one of the more open posters on that side of the argument, crying out for people to analyse what he’s done and point out where he is wrong, whereas most others I had to stop following as they seemed to have ulterior motives and were just plain abusive to those asking questions.

He’s done interesting analysis of deaths in the states and Sweden by date of death as opposed to date of report, showing a very similar curve to each other, whether the state had a hard lockdown/soft lockdown/etc.

Having said that, I’m not sure how much of this is cognitive bias and how proportional my attention is to how much I’d like it to be true.

He is tweeting things with no actual basis on any facts though....going by that tweet.

OMG
- substantial herd immunity gained.

The story says nothing whatsoever to back up that statement.....

ShineOn7

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Any thoughts on this reply?

50% of people not susceptible plus another 30% already exposed = approaching herd immunity in UK?

https://twitter.com/CatrionaColllns/status/1281733145851822080?s=19

What in the name of God is that?

There's zero sources given by the Tweeter