What if no Vaccines work?

Del Griffith

PaybackPayroll wrote: »

Was it possible to be re-inflected with Spanish flu if you recovered the first time?

Maybe Coronavirus can keep re-infecting people. If that's the case well it wont ever run out of hosts.

Maybe it'll turn into a monster that fires bees out of its mouth and shoots lasers out of its eyes? What if what if what if

At least we have one thing we know that stops it in its tracks, a €9 meal

People talking about it changing the future or our social interactions are over-reacting. Vietnam is completely back to normal after close to 100% mask usage three months ago. It took around a week for it to swing back to what life felt like in 2019.

You don't just change society like that. Everyone will go back to normal. People won't be wearing masks in Ireland or social distancing after Covid is gone.

Pauliedragon

Gael23 wrote: »

This won’t happen again in the lifetime of anyone reading this post.

If I said to you a year ago the country would effectively be shut down because somebody in a place called Wuhan ate a bat you probably would have told me to see a shrink. I wouldn't be sure of anything these days.

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

This won’t happen again in the lifetime of anyone reading this post.

On the balance of probability it wont happen in our lifetime, but mutations of viruses into pathogens that can infect humans do not operate on a timetable. The next one could just as easily come next year or not for 100 years

hmmm

Deleted User wrote: »

On the balance of probability it wont happen in our lifetime, but mutations of viruses into pathogens that can infect humans do not operate on a timetable. The next one could just as easily come next year or not for 100 years

We've had 3 new coronaviruses emerge from animals into humans in the past 20 years (SARS, MERS, SARS2).

Unfortunately it probably will. However our toolbox next time around will be much stronger, and we will hopefully have several new vaccines we can retarget at whatever emerges.

snotboogie

Deleted User wrote: »

People talking about it changing the future or our social interactions are over-reacting. Vietnam is completely back to normal after close to 100% mask usage three months ago. It took around a week for it to swing back to what life felt like in 2019.

You don't just change society like that. Everyone will go back to normal. People won't be wearing masks in Ireland or social distancing after Covid is gone.

Vietnam are back to normal because they pursued a zero Covid policy. The one many on this forum are rallying against for Ireland.

The three outcomes are:

(i) Vaccine saves the day and the world slowly goes back to normal sometime in 2021 or 2022
(ii) "The new normal" which is long term social distancing and rolling regional lockdowns for 10+ years. Masks and washing hands do not in anyway compare to social distancing, long term social distancing would be the biggest change to human society in generations.
(iii) Go for the Covid Free Island where things will be back to normal in Q4.

The big danger with option 3 is that a vaccine will come out a few months after and the whole effort will have been worthless. One thing is for sure, we cannot just ignore the virus and go back to normal. Even the most fervent anti lockdown politicians in the US South have been humbled by Covid in the last month

MOH

snotboogie wrote: »

Couldn't agree less. I'd love to know how keeping 2 metres away from everyone not in your household is not onerous. Only 30 and 40 somethings who's life revolves around the kids and their direct family not remembering what their own lives were like 20 and 30 years before are spouting this crap.

When they were between 0 and 20?

I'd love to see what your definition of "onerous" is.

growleaves

One thing is for sure, we cannot just ignore the virus and go back to normal.

Lol do you honestly think 10 years of enforced social isolation and life in a semi-permanent prison state are more practical than living with covid?

It is psychotic dishonesty that is the real affliction.

Thousands of lies have been told since March, when people were talking about death rates of 4-7% and millions of corpses.

Covid has been fifty-fold less deadly than officially predicted, including in states that didn't lock down.

Cancelling human life and crawling into a hole is a choice - a wrong and evil choice.

ACitizenErased

I think we’re getting to the stage now in vaccine development where this scenario is becoming incredibly unlikely.

hmmm

growleaves wrote: »

Covid has been fifty-fold less deadly than officially predicted, including in states that didn't lock down.

Just a reminder that this of course is not true. Was it you that also claimed the CDC had a .05% IFR for Covid?

D.Q

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think we’re getting to the stage now in vaccine development where this scenario is becoming incredibly unlikely.

yeah the concern now seems to have shifted to scaling the production up, they seem confident enough it will work from what I've been reading about the oxford one.

growleaves

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think we’re getting to the stage now in vaccine development where this scenario is becoming incredibly unlikely.

You're probably right but in any case I think it's important people understand that a) the government are not gaolers and b) collective suicide is wrong

growleaves

In my above post, 0.05 s/b 0.5 and 0.02 s/b 0.2.

The CDC estimate ifr between 0.2-1% with "best estimate" of 0.5%. That was revised downwards from a higher estimate in mid-April.

snotboogie

MOH wrote: »

When they were between 0 and 20?

I'd love to see what your definition of "onerous" is.

Come on, no need to be pedantic. I said people in their 30's and 40's, not people who are 30.

Children, teenagers and people in their 20's spend a lot of time meeting new people. It is an absolutely essential part of that stage of life for most people. The idea that remote learning for college, or phased access to classrooms for schoolchildren is not onerous is a joke.

In your non onerous world; teenage discos are gone, Irish College is gone, every student in every bar in the country has to keep 1-2 metres away from those not in a pre approved list of friends, there will be rolling shutdowns of all contact sports (as we are seeing with GAA now, I'm skeptical that any contact sport will be allowed in a "new normal" once things settle down), full attendances in Croke Park and Lansdowne Road are gone (18k is being touted as the max socially distanced capacity), making new friends at your first job in the office is gone.

Onerous is changing the entire social fabric of human society. Which is what the "new normal" is; no more full classrooms, no more full lecture halls, no more full bars, no more full stadiums, no more full offices, no more full conferences.

I hope people actually wake up to this. We are not going back to normal until there is a vaccine or a covid free Island.

growleaves wrote: »

Lol do you honestly think 10 years of enforced social isolation and life in a semi-permanent prison state are more practical than living with covid?

It is psychotic dishonesty that is the real affliction.

Thousands of lies have been told since March, when people were talking about death rates of 4-7% and millions of corpses.

Covid has been fifty-fold less deadly than officially predicted, including in states that didn't lock down.

Cancelling human life and crawling into a hole is a choice - a wrong and evil choice.

I never said that Nobody is proposing 10 years of enforced isolation. Its 10 years of living with the virus, which is basically keeping things as they are now for 10 years. I obviously think that this is the worst option.

growleaves wrote: »

In my above post, 0.05 s/b 0.5 and 0.02 s/b 0.2.

The CDC estimate ifr between 0.2-1% with "best estimate" of 0.5%. That was revised downwards from a higher estimate in mid-April.

Epidemiologists have speculated .5% since March. The seasonal flu is .1%, so Covid is about 5 times more deadly.

SeaBreezes

growleaves wrote: »

In my above post, 0.05 s/b 0.5 and 0.02 s/b 0.2.

The CDC estimate ifr between 0.2-1% with "best estimate" of 0.5%. That was revised downwards from a higher estimate in mid-April.

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1283394794375569408

is_that_so

SeaBreezes wrote: »

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1283394794375569408

I don't think the IFR tells us an awful lot in this case. The numbers that end up in hospital and how long they stay there is a far more useful metric.

Oops!

A quick question... How many people here have had/known somebody with the virus? I know i'm in a rural area but their has'nt seem to have been a case of it here in a 30k radius.....

yosemitesam1

growleaves wrote: »

In my above post, 0.05 s/b 0.5 and 0.02 s/b 0.2.

The CDC estimate ifr between 0.2-1% with "best estimate" of 0.5%. That was revised downwards from a higher estimate in mid-April.

In reality it will be lower still, when taking account of the significant proportion of people who won't generate specific blood antibodies

hmmm

Oops! wrote: »

A quick question... How many people here have had/known somebody with the virus? I know i'm in a rural area but their has'nt seem to have been a case of it here in a 30k radius.....

If you haven't seen it already, stats have been published by electoral area.
https://census.cso.ie/covid19/

Some rural enough areas with lots of cases - meatplants I'm guessing?

growleaves

Oops! wrote: »

A quick question... How many people here have had/known somebody with the virus? I know i'm in a rural area but their has'nt seem to have been a case of it here in a 30k radius.....

I don't know anyone, except a new acquaintance I was introduced to for all of five seconds. She is 86, picked it up in a Dublin hospital where she was being treated for two other serious conditions and recovered fully.

Oops!

No i didn't see that... And going by my area in Tipp it's fairly accurate anyway.

eddie73

Oops! wrote: »

A quick question... How many people here have had/known somebody with the virus? I know i'm in a rural area but their has'nt seem to have been a case of it here in a 30k radius.....

I know people that contracted the virus. I am from a rural area and the person that contracted it got it from her son, who returned from Berlin. Another person got it working at a till in a shop. Yet another got it when in hospital for a procedure. This was all back in April. I have heard anecdotes about others who fell ill too that I didn't personally know but others knew.

To summarize, there were instances of covid in the community for sure.

Oops!

eddie73 wrote: »

I know people that contracted the virus. I am from a rural area and the person that contracted it got it from her son, who returned from Berlin. Another person got it working at a till in a shop. Yet another got it when in hospital for a procedure. This was all back in April. I have heard anecdotes about others who fell ill too that I didn't personally know but others knew.

To summarize, there were instances of covid in the community for sure.

May have been in your community but not in mine. How could they be sure where they picked it up? Not trying to be smart, genuine question!

Strumms

Has anybody focused on how outrightly fortunate we are that if this was going to happen, it happened NOW.

I’d hate to have been say 1991. No internet, per say, no email in wide use, no smart phones, no smart anything.... it’s actually scary to predict how badly wrong things probably would have gotten without these easy and accessible forms of communication.

Oops!

Strumms wrote: »

Has anybody focused on how outrightly fortunate we are that if this was going to happen, it happened NOW.

I’d hate to have been say 1991. No internet, per say, no email in wide use, no smart phones, no smart anything.... it’s actually scary to predict how badly wrong things probably would have gotten without these easy and accessible forms of communication.

It works both ways.... It's the young generation growing up in the world now bombarded with s**te from the internet i feel sorry for... Thank **** there was none of it around when i was in my teens.

It's not scary... Unless you let it scare you.

Eircom_Sucks

#singlelivesmatter

What about singletons ?

eddie73

Oops! wrote: »

May have been in your community but not in mine. How could they be sure where they picked it up? Not trying to be smart, genuine question!

Well lets deal with one point at a time....

You asked did anyone know of anyone 'in their community' who got COVID 19.
Yes I knew of cases. I knew the people personally.

You make 2 new points.

I can't account for cases in your own area.

I can't be sure where they picked it up but this is what the woman's son was told as being 'extremely likely' by those that have a relevant opinion, in the hospital.
The person who worked in the shop....unfortunately died. It is highly likely that he picked it up from the community. I didn't read the coroner's report, nor would I have reason to doubt that Covid 19 was at least a very, very significant cause of his death.

The next point I will pre empt is 'how do the authorities know' which in turn goes straight into the hall of mirrors that is the world of conspiracy.

If this is the case, how do we know that someone died from cancer, a heart attack, renal failure, lung disease ad infinitum.

We have to sign off on what the authorities tell us as none of us spent 6 years studying medicine in UCD or UCG.

Otherwise, I can read something on facebook and say its true, using the argument of 'prove that it is not true' as validation of the point.

I am not saying you, op, are in this category, but I am sure there are many who are reading this that are in this camp.

Oops!

eddie73 wrote: »

Well lets deal with one point at a time....

You asked did anyone know of anyone 'in their community' who got COVID 19.
Yes I knew of cases. I knew the people personally.

You make 2 new points.

I can't account for cases in your own area.

I can't be sure where they picked it up but this is what the woman's son was told as being 'extremely likely' by those that have a relevant opinion, in the hospital.
The person who worked in the shop....unfortunately died. It is highly likely that he picked it up from the community. I didn't read the coroner's report, nor would I have reason to doubt that Covid 19 was at least a very, very significant cause of his death.

The next point I will pre empt is 'how do the authorities know' which in turn goes straight into the hall of mirrors that is the world of conspiracy.

If this is the case, how do we know that someone died from cancer, a heart attack, renal failure, lung disease ad infinitum.

We have to sign off on what the authorities tell us as none of us spent 6 years studying medicine in UCD or UCG.

Otherwise, I can read something on facebook and say its true, using the argument of 'prove that it is not true' as validation of the point.

I am not saying you, op, are in this category, but I am sure there are many who are reading this that are in this camp.

Nope, i'm not in that category but i get your point.

Mrs OBumble

Strumms wrote: »

Has anybody focused on how outrightly fortunate we are that if this was going to happen, it happened NOW.

I’d hate to have been say 1991. No internet, per say, no email in wide use, no smart phones, no smart anything.... it’s actually scary to predict how badly wrong things probably would have gotten without these easy and accessible forms of communication.

Yes. I took part in a government pandrmix planning exercise in the 1990s

We've been incredibly lucky with both the state of technology and the characteristics of the virus.

ShineOn7

Oops! wrote: »

There's some very dangerous precedents being set lately....

For example?