What if no Vaccines work?

ShineOn7

growleaves wrote: »

Meanwhile back in reality the CDC now estimates the Infection Fatality Rate at 0.05%. Seasonal flu is 0.02% and that is the proportionate comparison, not medieval plagues which almost wiped out entire populations.

Flu comparisons still after 4 months of this?

Seriously?

Depending on the country's data you read, Covid is:

• 5-10 times more contagious than Flu
• 5-20 times more fatal than Flu

In some cases, when a country's CFR with it is 5%, it's as much as 50 times more fatal than Flu

Flu's mortality rate is 0.1% in Ireland. It's easy Maths to figure out

eddie73

I know someone who was in hospital also with an unrelated complaint and was in a private room. The rest of the floor of the hospital he was in was reserved for covid patients. All 13 of them.

Unless it were a very elaborate Trumann Show type conspiracy, we would have to accept that these people were indeed ill with covid.

ShineOn7

Strumms wrote: »

Has anybody focused on how outrightly fortunate we are that if this was going to happen, it happened NOW.

I’d hate to have been say 1991. No internet, per say, no email in wide use, no smart phones, no smart anything.... it’s actually scary to predict how badly wrong things probably would have gotten without these easy and accessible forms of communication.

I don't think it's all good we have this Tech by any means

We have a device in our pocket that bombards us with Fear Porn 24/7

growleaves

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Flu comparisons still after 4 months of this?

Seriously?

Depending on the country's data you read, Covid is:

• 5-10 times more contagious than Flu
• 5-20 times more fatal than Flu

In some cases, when a country's CFR with it is 5%, it's as much as 50 times more fatal than Flu

Flu's mortality rate is 0.1% in Ireland. It's easy Maths to figure out

The point I was making is that seasonal influenza is a more proportionate comparison than medieval plagues.

For instance in 14thc Florence the raw fatality rate for the Black Death is estimated to have been approx 75%. Lower for other cities obv but since you include upper estimates in your post, I may as well too.

Strumms

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I don't think it's all good we have this Tech by any means

We have a device in our pocket that bombards us with Fear Porn 24/7

Thin line between fear porn and reality porn.

SeaBreezes

Oops! wrote: »

May have been in your community but not in mine. How could they be sure where they picked it up? Not trying to be smart, genuine question!

I know two personally, one died (vulnerable) one in thirties fit parent, had a type of flu for a week, 2 months later still deep fatigue and metallic taste in mouth.

Also of two families locally community tramsmission.

SeaBreezes

Strumms wrote: »

Thin line between fear porn and reality porn.

Bad choice of words but i know what you meant

Cordell

Until now it was socially acceptable to be at work while sick, or to send the kids to school while sick, even if it was the flu, even if there was a chance that someone vulnerable will catch it and die. At least this is no more, so we have that.

patnor1011

So it seems that with Moderna vaccine one will have to be taking it 3-4 times a year to be effective.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2022483

Deeper Blue

patnor1011 wrote: »

So it seems that with Moderna vaccine one will have to be taking it 3-4 times a year to be effective.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2022483

And you're happy about this?

patnor1011

El Sueño wrote: »

And you're happy about this?

Happy?
Nope. It just shows what many people said before. There is a problem to create working vaccine for any coronavirus. It was tried and abandoned. Sure, they throw more money at it right now but it is questionable if that will have any effect.
People can't be bothered to take flu jab once a year and somehow I can't see any serious uptake of a vaccine which may be needed 4x a year at a cost of several hundred per dose.

Deeper Blue

Fair enough, I was just curious as to why you had a smiley face next to a negative article about vaccines.

hmmm

patnor1011 wrote: »

People can't be bothered to take flu jab once a year and somehow I can't see any serious uptake of a vaccine which may be needed 4x a year at a cost of several hundred per dose.

True. Thankfully the paper you quoted said nothing about having to take a vaccine 3 or 4 times a year at a cost of several hundred per dose. :rolleyes:

We have no human vaccines for Coronavirus because none were needed. By the time the vaccines for SARS would have been ready, Asia had already brought it under control. The reason the Oxford vaccine is so far ahead is because they continued work on their Coronavirus platforms, and it has paid off for them. They also have a vaccine candidate for MERS, another Coronavirus.

Just because we haven't had to do it before, doesn't mean it's going to be difficult to do so. We'll know more in a couple of months.

saabsaab

If no vaccines work then it will make its way through the population eventually. Perhaps new effective treatments would become available to help many.

patnor1011

hmmm wrote: »

True. Thankfully the paper you quoted said nothing about having to take a vaccine 3 or 4 times a year at a cost of several hundred per dose. :rolleyes:

That paper does not mention price, but there are pretty wild speculations ranging from 10$ to 500$ per dose pretty much everywhere. Some of the flu vaccines cost 70-100 what makes you think covid vaccine will be cheaper?
It, however, mention the rapid decrease of antibodies which disappear in about 3 months hence multiple doses will be needed throughout the year. It also mention side effects which get worse with repeated or increased doses. :rolleyes:

Rest of your post started with not true statement.

We have no human vaccines for Coronavirus because none were needed.
False. They were needed due to several localized and deadly outbreaks. They were planed and few companies tried to make them. None of them were succesful.

And ended up with one:

Just because we haven't had to do it before, doesn't mean it's going to be difficult to do so. We'll know more in a couple of months.
People tried to do it as they felt it was needed. It was difficult then and it is difficult now.

hmmm

patnor1011 wrote: »

That paper does not mention price, but there are pretty wild speculations ranging from 10$ to 500$ per dose pretty much everywhere. Some of the flu vaccines cost 70-100 what makes you think covid vaccine will be cheaper?

Manufacturers are supplying some of the leading vaccines at cost.
https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2020/astrazeneca-to-supply-europe-with-up-to-400-million-doses-of-oxford-universitys-vaccine-at-no-profit.html

Treatments e.g. Regeneron's antibody cocktail will be more expensive, but they are expensive to make.

None of them were succesful.

They never completed testing because they weren't required. The Oxford vaccines have shown good results in animal trials for MERS and Covid, phase 1 results will be published on Monday and they are on Phase 3 of human trials with their Covid vaccine.

Oops!

patnor1011 wrote: »

Happy?
Nope. It just shows what many people said before. There is a problem to create working vaccine for any coronavirus. It was tried and abandoned. Sure, they throw more money at it right now but it is questionable if that will have any effect.
People can't be bothered to take flu jab once a year and somehow I can't see any serious uptake of a vaccine which may be needed 4x a year at a cost of several hundred per dose.

It's all about money... It comes down to that... That's the way the world works. If there's profit to be made. That's life.

LiquidZeb

Oops! wrote: »

It's all about money... It comes down to that... That's the way the world works. If there's profit to be made. That's life.

Astrazeneca are charging cost price for their vaccine. There's no big bucks in vaccine manufacturing despite what people think.

Danno

eddie73 wrote: »

I know people that contracted the virus. I am from a rural area and the person that contracted it got it from her son, who returned from Berlin. Another person got it working at a till in a shop. Yet another got it when in hospital for a procedure. This was all back in April. I have heard anecdotes about others who fell ill too that I didn't personally know but others knew.

To summarize, there were instances of covid in the community for sure.

Genuinely, that is the first and only time I have ever heard of a person contracting the virus in this manner (i.e. their environment). Is it 100% confirmed that this is the scenario of this transmission?

Overheal

Oops! wrote: »

A quick question... How many people here have had/known somebody with the virus? I know i'm in a rural area but their has'nt seem to have been a case of it here in a 30k radius.....

That's a hard ask.

For example my professor was quite ill in mid January/Late february and passed it on to me quickly, where it passed on to my fiance. We assume it was the flu but now not so sure. A colleague who didn't work remotely got sick with a fever etc. and all the symptoms but he denies getting it, and never got tested afaik (and the tests weren't available). And the truth is for all of us now a test/antibody test would tell us very little, if studies are indeed true like the spanish one that suggest antibodies clear out after a few weeks, then we would all test negative for antibodies now, even if thats what it was, and because of that it would also mean as it does for everyone else that a vaccine is never going to work and we could be reinfected again and again.

Azatadine

Overheal wrote: »

That's a hard ask.

For example my professor was quite ill in mid January/Late february and passed it on to me quickly, where it passed on to my fiance. We assume it was the flu but now not so sure. A colleague who didn't work remotely got sick with a fever etc. and all the symptoms but he denies getting it, and never got tested afaik (and the tests weren't available). And the truth is for all of us now a test/antibody test would tell us very little, if studies are indeed true like the spanish one that suggest antibodies clear out after a few weeks, then we would all test negative for antibodies now, even if thats what it was, and because of that it would also mean as it does for everyone else that a vaccine is never going to work and we could be reinfected again and again.

https://reason.com/2020/07/17/good-news-covid-19-vaccines-stimulate-the-production-of-both-antibodies-and-t-cells/

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-scientists-uncover-sars-cov-specific-cell-immunity.html

Montage of Feck

I'm so sick of this **** right now, depression is setting in. As a drastic solution how about having a month long Purge style event where hospitals are locked down and the virus is intentualy spread through the population, a short sharp hit is preferable over this interminable lockdown and soul destroying social isolation.

Stark

Know two people in my workplace who've had it (there are 8 of us in total). No-one in my circle of immediate friends and family thankfully. Quite a few "friends of friends" who've had it.

saabsaab

Montage of Feck wrote: »

I'm so sick of this **** right now, depression is setting in. As a drastic solution how about having a month long Purge style event where hospitals are locked down and the virus is intentualy spread through the population, a short sharp hit is preferable over this interminable lockdown and soul destroying social isolation.

Not sure if you're serious but if there is no effective vaccine and a long delay with an effective treatment then this would lead to many deaths and not a sharp hit with a recovery after.

Few friends of friends had it, and friends' family members. I had a flu before Christmas and another after it. Symptoms didn't really line up but I'd only had the flu a couple of times before this year, was stuck in bed for a couple of weeks total over the winter.

one world order

Once the global economy suffers, civil unrest breaks out and the Devil has used the media to generate as much fear, then the microchip vaccine will all of a sudden be mandated for the global population.

saabsaab

one world order wrote: »

Once the global economy suffers, civil unrest breaks out and the Devil has used the media to generate as much fear, then the microchip vaccine will all of a sudden be mandated for the global population.

Have you been drinking the hand satanizer?

one world order

saabsaab wrote: »

Have you been drinking the hand satanizer?

It’s the reality we are now facing unfortunately.

Charles Babbage

patnor1011 wrote: »

So it seems that with Moderna vaccine one will have to be taking it 3-4 times a year to be effective.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2022483

They cannot make a claim that it lasts a long time from a short trial, whereas they can reasonably claim that it does 3 or 4 months. It may last much longer.
In reality, the first vaccine may be expensive and short lived. But even within the period that the first vaccine lasts a longer lasting and cheaper vaccine may be developed. Rome wasn't built in a day.

one world order wrote: »

Once the global economy suffers, civil unrest breaks out and the Devil has used the media to generate as much fear, then the microchip vaccine will all of a sudden be mandated for the global population.

A microchip will not stop a virus, except perhaps a computer virus and even then it would be less trouble to write a program.

ShineOn7

one world order wrote: »

Once the global economy suffers, civil unrest breaks out and the Devil has used the media to generate as much fear, then the microchip vaccine will all of a sudden be mandated for the global population.