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How do we break the welfare cycle?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,515 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Yes and inflation will go through the roof and not worth the paper it’s printed on.

    Inflation has not increased since QE started in 2014.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,515 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    KiKi III wrote: »
    So we’re in agreement that the number of people who are long-term unemployed is very, very small.

    Can you point to any country worldwide that has a system with minimal/ no benefits and where society has improved as a result?


    2019 Q4 LFS

    Unemployed = 111,000

    LT unemployed = about 40% of unemployed

    These figures do not capture the huge amount of economic inactivity.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,515 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    atticu wrote: »
    The long term unemployed figures do not include the people who do not want to work.

    Correct.

    Our UNR was low in 2018/2019, but this doesn't capture our high rates of households with zero market income.

    Low UNR, but high welfare dependency - CA, DA, OPFP, JSA, etc.


  • Registered Users Posts: 987 ✭✭✭Pinoy adventure


    You really think people on the dole long term are paying house insurance/private medical insurance when they have HAP and medical cards?

    I would assume they are paying some sort of insurance each year.
    It could be holiday insurance or car/motorbike insurance.


  • Registered Users Posts: 987 ✭✭✭Pinoy adventure


    So if everyone on the dole should get 350, this would reflect a change of close to 75% or 4-5 billion per year. Where do you suggest we get this additional cash from on a year by year basis?

    Ireland took in €59 billion in taxes last year.
    €4-5 billions in welfare payments wouldn't be too bad.
    Those who receive this money each week would be spending this money locally which would create jobs and more taxes for the cycle of the money too continue.
    It's pretty simple economics really.
    Get more/spend more = more taxes for our government (who might give welfare people an increase in the next budget as they deserve it )


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,515 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Ireland took in €59 billion in taxes last year.
    €4-5 billions in welfare payments wouldn't be too bad.
    Those who receive this money each week would be spending this money locally which would create jobs and more taxes for the cycle of the money too continue.
    It's pretty simple economics really.
    Get more/spend more = more taxes for our government (who might give welfare people an increase in the next budget as they deserve it )


    You are assuming here that the public expenditure multiplier is >1.

    You are assuming that the gain from the extra spending exceeds the pain from the extra taxes used to finance the extra spending.

    It's not "simple economics".

    Have a read of this:

    https://www.esri.ie/publications/fiscal-multipliers-in-ireland-using-fir-gem-model

    https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/WP636.pdf


  • Registered Users Posts: 987 ✭✭✭Pinoy adventure


    Geuze wrote: »
    You are assuming here that the public expenditure multiplier is >1.

    You are assuming that the gain from the extra spending exceeds the pain from the extra taxes used to finance the extra spending.

    It's not "simple economics".

    Have a read of this:

    https://www.esri.ie/publications/fiscal-multipliers-in-ireland-using-fir-gem-model

    https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/WP636.pdf

    It is simple really.get more money -spend more money.
    Spending more money keeps people in jobs and who pay more tax with these said jobs.
    So it's win win really and pretty straight forward too even a child.
    If welfare was increased too let's say €350 a week too keep it a level playing field,those who receive that €350 would tend too spend more which in turn would add too the tax take each year.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 140 ✭✭gailforecast


    It is simple really.get more money -spend more money.
    Spending more money keeps people in jobs and who pay more tax with these said jobs.
    So it's win win really and pretty straight forward too even a child.
    If welfare was increased too let's say €350 a week too keep it a level playing field,those who receive that €350 would tend too spend more which in turn would add too the tax take each year.

    What are you on about? Giving people money from the state, doesn’t magically create more money for the state? We were at full employment before Covid. Why should those that live a life of sloth have a “level playing field”?

    Welfare exists so people don’t starve, not to guarantee a middle-class lifestyle for all.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,698 ✭✭✭kenmm


    Any chance this could get back on topic? Or just more arguments about exactly how those claiming benefits are all lazy fu(ks? I'm sure that argument could be continues on any of the existing threads..


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    How do we stop generational welfare recipients?

    Do CE schemes or other work programs work? Or is there another approach we can take which will be effective?

    The way to do it is to stop allowing asset price inflation at crazy levels. It shouldn't be expensive to house people but due to our obsession with protecting house prices it is such a big deal for the State to house someone. As a result, the welfare seems like an extra bonus with the free home when homes are so expensive.

    Rents to drop 60% from their current average rates would go a huge way to dealing with social problems and begrudgery towards welfare recipients.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 987 ✭✭✭Pinoy adventure


    What are you on about? Giving people money from the state, doesn’t magically create more money for the state? We were at full employment before Covid. Why should those that live a life of sloth have a “level playing field”?

    Welfare exists so people don’t starve, not to guarantee a middle-class lifestyle for all.

    Middle class lifestyle should be the level playing field.not the haves and the have nots 🙄
    It's so unfair the unemployed get 203 yet those who lost there jobs (the unemployed) due too covid get 350 🀔
    Where is the level playing field ?
    Even those who work part time got 350 a week at the start of the free for all,yet our great government couldn't give out enough free cash


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 140 ✭✭gailforecast


    Middle class lifestyle should be the level playing field.not the haves and the have nots 🙄
    It's so unfair the unemployed get 203 yet those who lost there jobs (the unemployed) due too covid get 350 🀔
    Where is the level playing field ?
    Even those who work part time got 350 a week at the start of the free for all,yet our great government couldn't give out enough free cash

    350 was for workers with commitments, not for Anto and Deco to live large.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,515 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    It is simple really.get more money -spend more money.
    Spending more money keeps people in jobs and who pay more tax with these said jobs.
    So it's win win really and pretty straight forward too even a child.
    If welfare was increased too let's say €350 a week too keep it a level playing field,those who receive that €350 would tend too spend more which in turn would add too the tax take each year.

    If you are correct, why don't we treble all welfare payments?

    Sure the economy would be booming then.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,515 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    kenmm wrote: »
    Any chance this could get back on topic? Or just more arguments about exactly how those claiming benefits are all lazy fu(ks? I'm sure that argument could be continues on any of the existing threads..

    OK, back on topic.

    How to "break the cycle".

    (1) a general point - maintain and improve social insurance

    (2) a general point - do not improve social assistance

    (3) break the cycle of LT unemployment by replacing LT JSA with paid work. Offer everybody on LT JSA paid work

    (4) do not accept a society where able-bodied working-age adults wallow on welfare for years. Reject TDs who encourage this

    (5) re-check everybody on DA

    (6) reform OPFP so that it supports parenting, but that it does not encourage lone-parenting


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,782 ✭✭✭I see sheep


    I see Covid19 has had no effect on social welfare recipients bashing threads.
    In the future just cockroaches and these threads will survive.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,757 ✭✭✭oceanman


    Geuze wrote: »
    OK, back on topic.

    How to "break the cycle".

    (1) a general point - maintain and improve social insurance

    (2) a general point - do not improve social assistance

    (3) break the cycle of LT unemployment by replacing LT JSA with paid work. Offer everybody on LT JSA paid work

    (4) do not accept a society where able-bodied working-age adults wallow on welfare for years. Reject TDs who encourage this

    (5) re-check everybody on DA

    (6) reform OPFP so that it supports parenting, but that it does not encourage lone-parenting
    good luck with finding any government to go along with that!..


  • Registered Users Posts: 29,559 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Geuze wrote:
    By, now the ECB has created huge amount of extra money, which it used to buy financial assets.


    I agree with all of that but the only problem is by the time this money finds its way through the financial sector, it comes out traumatised by its molestation and manipulation, it eventually arrives at our door in the form of debt. The real economy needs real money with real people spending it. Our beloved politicans will be out in force soon trying to convince us to spend our savings, in order to support the real economy, when a truck load of people will still be out of work, and everyone else wondering if they ll still have a job by Christmas, it's a train wreck of a system


  • Registered Users Posts: 987 ✭✭✭Pinoy adventure


    350 was for workers with commitments, not for Anto and Deco to live large.

    Anto & deco spend plenty of cash buying Canada goose jackets and the likes,this in turn cretes jobs in the local economy thus creating more taxes for the government.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,629 ✭✭✭jrosen


    Anto & deco spend plenty of cash buying Canada goose jackets and the likes,this in turn cretes jobs in the local economy thus creating more taxes for the government.

    If Anto and Dec were buying genuine products perhaps you'd have a point. Its more likely they are buying fake from some other dole recipient.


  • Registered Users Posts: 29,559 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    jrosen wrote: »
    If Anto and Dec were buying genuine products perhaps you'd have a point. Its more likely they are buying fake from some other dole recipient.

    some do, some dont, but they are creating money velocity no matter what,which is good for the economy


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,515 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    I agree with all of that but the only problem is by the time this money finds its way through the financial sector, it comes out traumatised by its molestation and manipulation, it eventually arrives at our door in the form of debt.


    What, exactly, do you mean by this?

    As far as I can see, QE does not cause any extra debt?

    QE involves the CB buying existing bonds.

    Where is the extra debt?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,698 ✭✭✭kenmm


    jrosen wrote: »
    If Anto and Dec were buying genuine products perhaps you'd have a point. Its more likely they are buying fake from some other dole recipient.

    But what will the guy selling the fakes do with the money?

    See- no answer for that! Done. ðŸ˜


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 474 ✭✭ChelseaRentBoy


    Product of your environment

    Support that environment or nothing will change.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭Gretas Gonna Get Ya!


    Force able bodied welfare recipients to perform community service until they get a job. Payment is conditional on engaging.

    If there is enough work out there to create one of those "community service" type roles, then why not create an actual job out of it and give it to an unemployed person?

    Part of the problem that I have seen with long term unemployed people, is not that all of them don't want to work... it's actually that many of them are seen as unemployable. They don't get called for interviews - bad work history, criminal record, lack of skills/education etc...

    Create jobs for unemployed people, and give them a job. Give them help and support to learn how to become useful productive and reliable people. Some of them might screw this opportunity up, but many won't... but just keep giving them opportunities to do the right thing, and their self-esteem and sense of self-worth will start to grow!

    (And yes, I do realise that there are layabouts who hate working - but even some of these characters are not beyond help with the correct supports)

    Sending a very unemployable person out and just telling them to go get a job, with minimal support/help... it's basically a bit pointless.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,629 ✭✭✭jrosen


    kenmm wrote: »
    But what will the guy selling the fakes do with the money?

    See- no answer for that! Done. ðŸ˜

    Done with what?

    These people pump money into the back economy. It doesn't benefit society.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,191 ✭✭✭RandomViewer


    jrosen wrote: »
    Done with what?

    These people pump money into the back economy. It doesn't benefit society.

    Black economy put a lot of food on tables and clothes on backs in the 1980's,


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,319 ✭✭✭pgj2015


    I think the army and navy have been finding it hard to recruit the last couple of years. maybe people could be forced to join the army or navy or if they don't like that, get a job or emigrate.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 794 ✭✭✭Biker79


    Just in from walking through the city centre - Henry St, Moore St, Dominic Street, Parnell Street. The amount of stains on the ground, rough sleepers, drug addicts, loud teenagers in Penney's tracksuits throwing rubbish on the ground is astonishing. On a beautiful Sunday morning.

    Say what you like about the ins and outs of welfare but either way, a significant percentage of Ireland's population are for the birds. It's down to the choices they make about who they are and how they behave.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭Gretas Gonna Get Ya!


    pgj2015 wrote: »
    I think the army and navy have been finding it hard to recruit the last couple of years. maybe people could be forced to join the army or navy or if they don't like that, get a job or emigrate.

    The army and navy don't want them either... so you'd have to force them to take them on! (which I guess could be done)

    The same people on these threads who bash dole scroungers... if they had their own business, would they be running down to the local dole office to recruit any of these people for their establishment?? Not a chance! ;)

    As a country, we either need to create jobs specifically for long term unemployed... or we need to force employers to take on a certain % of long term unemployed people. (similar to how we force developers to build a certain % of social housing in every new build estate)

    Like I said above, most long term unemployed people are unemployable and undesirable... and this is a factor that is very often overlooked by people!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,629 ✭✭✭jrosen


    There are also thousands of people who work but also claim benefits. Is this not where the largest % of money goes. How many families have opted to have a parent stay at home but then as a family are able to claim family income supplement. How many work below 19 hours in order to claim. How many work PT but claim reduced job seekers? The system has lots of loopholes that are exploited


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