Recession: Which falls first - rent or house prices?

SozBbz

Ray Palmer wrote: »

No, you asked if you were stupid and I answered there is the difference.

You have since explained that following the minimum advice and anybody going beyond that is stupid. Not sure why the minimum became best practice. If you interact with people at risk or live with them you certainly need to above and beyond the minimum.

The cop on and exercised judgment you think you have is limited because you think minimum is the highest standard. It isn't.

Nope, I asked if it made me an idiot and you said yes. I said the feeling is mutual, which i think is fair comment and further justified by your subsequent posts.

And no, they are not a minimum standard - they are the standard. There are no gold stars for total isolation. Actually there are a lot of downsides to not living a normal life - social isolation, mental health struggles, poverty etc. We do not need to all lock ourselves away.

Also, you've stated that you're not going to go to a bar or restaurant for the rest of the year. Thats almost 6 months away, there is no need to make sweeping proclamations about the situation months from now. We could be in another wave or we could have a vaccine and/or more effective treatment.

I am following the advice as the situation evolves, and not making rash statements.

ZeroThreat

cgcsb wrote: »

We're really not.



rent seems to have fallen somewhat, you can now rent a bedsit (albeit substandard) on DAFT for about €800 a month. The average full time net salary is about €2,900 a month, so the average person can now snap up a dingy bedsit for just under 30% of their income. It's better than pre corona, but still we have a poor standard of living due to high housing cost.

As for purchasing, I've not noticed significant movement in prices, kip apartments with newspaper walls in kip suburbs still cost 200k. The average worker can afford a €185,000 home as a single person or €370,000 as a couple.

Hmmm, if average take home pay in this country works out at above €720 a week, I really need to find a better job....

Ray Palmer

SozBbz wrote: »

Nope, I asked if it made me an idiot and you said yes. I said the feeling is mutual, which i think is fair comment and further justified by your subsequent posts.

And no, they are not a minimum standard - they are the standard. There are no gold stars for total isolation. Actually there are a lot of downsides to not living a normal life - social isolation, mental health struggles, poverty etc. We do not need to all lock ourselves away.

Also, you've stated that you're not going to go to a bar or restaurant for the rest of the year. Thats almost 6 months away, there is no need to make sweeping proclamations about the situation months from now. We could be in another wave or we could have a vaccine and/or more effective treatment.

I am following the advice as the situation evolves, and not making rash statements.

You called me stupid just for disagreeing with you while I stated a stupid act. You asked me if that made you stupid and I answered in the affirmative. You therefore called me stupid with no logic and call me stupid for maintaining my view.you are moving goal posts while I didn't. Don't ask a question if you aren't going to like the answer


No it is the minimum. They have stated it as such by telling some if the population to remain locked down as much as possible.

There will be no vaccine this year available to the public. It is literally impossible.

You are picking and choosing what to follow and have stated you will use your judgment. Your judgement is off and lacks critical thinking. The idea that you can social distance in these places is false just on toilets alone. You want to take the risk go ahead but don't claim something is possible where it is not.

SozBbz

Nope - you're wrong yet again. I didn't use the word stupid until you brought it up.

It was another poster who said what you'd suggested was pretty stupid. Its all there in black and white.

Anyway, theres no point in engaging with you further, you're a zealot and not open to reason. You're derailing this thread to push a perspective thats at odd with offical advice and I've no time for it.

hardybuck

I have a small portfolio of properties in Dublin. About 75% of them have new tenancies that started last year, and they're all high spec properties in the upper end of the market.

Only one of my tenants asked for a temporary reduction, and they were in a badly affected industry and a reliable tenant so they got it.

50% of my tenants have renewed at last years rent over the past couple of weeks. Of the other 50%, some will be going up by 4% and maybe one might get a minor reduction.

I think the third level colleges will play a large role in demand in many urban centres over the autumn. I see that UL are only going to have students on campus 1 week a month, that's going to result in a lot of young people staying with their parents and not requiring property. Ditto for international students I reckon.

SozBbz

hardybuck wrote: »

I think the third level colleges will play a large role in demand in many urban centres over the autumn. I see that UL are only going to have students on campus 1 week a month, that's going to result in a lot of young people staying with their parents and not requiring property. Ditto for international students I reckon.

DCU have announced that they're going to offer campus accomodation on a short term basis (ie you can book in for 2 days per week).

An Ri rua

SozBbz wrote: »

I think you're conflating what you think with what other people think.

You're clearly wearing the rose-tinted glasses here.
Running any numbers at all as a business owner, it's impossible not to see turnover dropping, going forward. And then taking the hit on 4 months lost revenue.
The people going back to pubs, for instance, are the party animals, binge drinkers, young, barflies etc etc. Even if your common sense social drinker only makes up 10-15% of your turnover, buying rounds etc (or not), that's a devastating turnover hit.
This is simple maths. The knock-on effects of this will be horrendous. Pent-up demand, my backside.

awec

An Ri rua wrote: »

You're clearly wearing the rose-tinted glasses here.
Running any numbers at all as a business owner, it's impossible not to see turnover dropping, going forward. And then taking the hit on 4 months lost revenue.
The people going back to pubs, for instance, are the party animals, binge drinkers, young, barflies etc etc. Even if your common sense social drinker only makes up 10-15% of your turnover, buying rounds etc (or not), that's a devastating turnover hit.
This is simple maths. The knock-on effects of this will be horrendous. Pent-up demand, my backside.

Who said turnover won't drop?

Of course turnover is going to drop. of course there will be lost revenue. Of course the numbers in pubs will be lower. These are all super obvious things, there's no awards for stating the obvious.

A point was made that pubs and restaurants, when they open, will struggle for customers. They won't struggle for customers. They won't have the same crowds as they had pre-covid, but there is clearly going to be sufficient demand to keep things ticking over, albeit at reduced rates.

cgcsb

ZeroThreat wrote: »

Hmmm, if average take home pay in this country works out at above €720 a week, I really need to find a better job....

That would be €683.80 a week net.

Average full time gross per year is €47,596. Tax is levied at 20% on the first 35k, and 40% on everything after so (35k-20%)=28,000 and then(47596-35000)=12,596 to be taxed at 40% which leaves you at 7,557.6

7,557.6 + 28,000 = 35,557.6 net per anum divided by 12 is €2,963.13 per month, or if you get paid weekly, divide by 52: €683.80 net a week

cgcsb

An Ri rua wrote: »

The people going back to pubs, for instance, are the party animals, binge drinkers, young, barflies etc etc.

:rolleyes:

lighten up there Karen.

kravmaga

Deleted User wrote: »

We're heading for a deep recession.

What is known about how this affects property prices and rents? Both will fall, but which falls first and fastest?

Looks like property prices have dropped 1st and rents are up?

See link to interesting article in Irish Indo below


https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-prices-fell-by-over-3pc-in-june-but-tenants-paying-even-higher-rents-39349542.html

An Ri rua

SozBbz wrote: »

Exactly.

People are capable of exercising good judgement and cop on.

Personally I'll be very much taking things as I find them. If I'm not happy that good practices are being observed, then I won't go in.

While I agree that that's a rational approach, the problem with low-paid jobs is that they don't have sick pay. So just wait until late September onwards when colds and flus start circulating. They can't come in, they can't stay off. It will spread like wildfire. Like the winter flu, with bells on.
So enjoy the few summer pints while we are in recess.

Claw Hammer

Rent levels and property prices tend to track each other. Changes in rents tend to
begun apparent more quickly. Rent deals are negotiated and completed within days (in most cases). House prices are negotiated and concluded over several months. As a result, changes don't appear in the statistics for quite some time. Because of the rent cap, some rents may increase by 4% if there below market levels already, whereas newly negotiated rents may be less that would have been the case previously.

awec

An Ri rua wrote: »

While I agree that that's a rational approach, the problem with low-paid jobs is that they don't have sick pay. So just wait until late September onwards when colds and flus start circulating. They can't come in, they can't stay off. It will spread like wildfire. Like the winter flu, with bells on.
So enjoy the few summer pints while we are in recess.

There's more than a decent chance that the government will pay a level of sick pay for workers with confirmed cases of covid19 in order to ensure that they never feel compelled to go to work.

An Ri rua

cgcsb wrote: »

:rolleyes:

lighten up there Karen.

Post reported. It's easy to spot someone with skin in the game. And an online coward who ridicules a current Irish citizen who's mentally ill. You're dirt.
Me, I've skin in the game too. 2k made on gold since May. Stick that where the sun don't shine, in your cobwebbed head.

cgcsb

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/studio-apartments-for-rent/dublin-7/65-aughrim-street-dublin-7-dublin-2029976/

This place is looking for 500 p/m down from 800p/m previously. Imagine the type of scummer who would ask someone to folk out 800 a month for that.

cgcsb

An Ri rua wrote: »

Post reported. It's easy to spot someone with skin in the game. And an online coward who ridicules a current Irish citizen who's mentally ill. You're dirt.
Me, I've skin in the game too. 2k made on gold since May. Stick that where the sun don't shine, in your cobwebbed head.

What are you actually talking about?

An Ri rua

cgcsb wrote: »

What are you actually talking about?

Correction. You're still all those things except I recalled a recent online bully victim as Karen, whereas she's not. Back to your soft landing calculator lad.

SozBbz

An Ri rua wrote: »

Correction. You're still all those things except I recalled a recent online bully victim as Karen, whereas she's not. Back to your soft landing calculator lad.

Geeeez this thread is out of control.

You're the one who just called someone dirt.

Gumbo

cgcsb wrote: »

At this point in Ireland you're as likely to die in a road traffic accident than you are to contract corona virus, you're the idiot I'd say.

Mod Note

Tone down the replies please.
Calling another poster an idiot because they have a different opinion to you is not welcome in this forum.

Consider this an on thread warning.

cgcsb

An Ri rua wrote: »

Correction. You're still all those things except I recalled a recent online bully victim as Karen, whereas she's not. Back to your soft landing calculator lad.

Mod Edit

Post borderline attacking based on mental health.

cgcsb

well I was replying to someone else who was calling everyone an idiot for going to pubs. Anything to say on the post were I was randomly called dirt?

Gumbo

Mod note.

Guys, back on topic or thread closure and warnings/bans.
@cgcsb. I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt has you posted at the same time as my warning to you.

Do not reply on thread please.

Gumbo

An Ri rua wrote: »

Post reported. It's easy to spot someone with skin in the game. And an online coward who ridicules a current Irish citizen who's mentally ill. You're dirt.
Me, I've skin in the game too. 2k made on gold since May. Stick that where the sun don't shine, in your cobwebbed head.

Mod Note.
Same warning to you.
Attack the content of the post and not the poster.


End it now.

SozBbz

An Ri rua wrote: »

You're clearly wearing the rose-tinted glasses here.
Running any numbers at all as a business owner, it's impossible not to see turnover dropping, going forward. And then taking the hit on 4 months lost revenue.
The people going back to pubs, for instance, are the party animals, binge drinkers, young, barflies etc etc. Even if your common sense social drinker only makes up 10-15% of your turnover, buying rounds etc (or not), that's a devastating turnover hit.
This is simple maths. The knock-on effects of this will be horrendous. Pent-up demand, my backside.

Where did i say turnover wouldnt be down? Of course turnover won't be the same, but there will still be some trade and many places especially restaurants are being quite inventive by offering takeaway/at home boxes etc.

All I said was that lots of people (myself included) will still go to pubs and restaurants where proper measures are in place.

I am not a party animal or a binge drinker, overly young or a barfly.

You're arguing with points that were never made.

...Ghost...

Ray Palmer wrote: »

As far as I am concerned yes you are.

Why such hostility?

SozBbz wrote: »

Unless you are in a high risk category, there is no need to go beyond government guidelines that are based on public health advice.

I think this is a very selfish approach and is the cause of many more infections that could have been prevented. We should all be acting like we are in a high risk category. Taking it easy and doing the bare minimum is what will get more people killed.

The Government are responsible for regulations and laws which attempt to balance public safety with the health of the economy. If we exercise appropriate cautionary measures rather than blindly following inadequate guidelines, we would all be much better off. We might keep in mind that public health advice is influenced by Government. The advice about face masks which they have flip-flopped on is a prime example where we were told at first that there was no benefit to wearing a mask.....why? Because they were concerned about supply.

SozBbz

...Ghost... wrote: »

Why such hostility?



I think this is a very selfish approach and is the cause of many more infections that could have been prevented. We should all be acting like we are in a high risk category. Taking it easy and doing the bare minimum is what will get more people killed.

The Government are responsible for regulations and laws which attempt to balance public safety with the health of the economy. If we exercise appropriate cautionary measures rather than blindly following inadequate guidelines, we would all be much better off. We might keep in mind that public health advice is influenced by Government. The advice about face masks which they have flip-flopped on is a prime example where we were told at first that there was no benefit to wearing a mask.....why? Because they were concerned about supply.

With respect, how is following the guidelines not sufficient? They're designed to be followed, not as some baseline. I've followed them all the way along - and I do wear a mask because thats the advice- so tell me again how I'm selfish?

Why should restaurant owners and staff give up their livelihood? They've already done it for months. Its time to get life underway in as safe a way as possible. Expecting people to let their otherwise viable businesses go to the wall because people should go above and beyond government and public health advice and stay at home indefinitely - to me that's pretty selfish.

Also, how are we supposed to fund our society if no one gets out there and spends money again? We might get on top of Covid but be left with a whole myriad other problems.

Feels like there's a bit of 'just glad to be back' excitement in some pubs/cafés, but many of them were just getting by pre-COVID. Now they are facing a dip in turnover that will wipe out profit margins and lead to closures.

Maybe I'm being a bit pessimistic and focusing on negative anecdotes I've picked up. But I keep hearing them!

Spoke to a plumber yesterday who does some work in local pubs. One well-established place said they are giving it three weeks to see how it goes but their seating is down by more than 50% due to their layout. And the big money-making days where the place is packed - like big matches - have evaporated. They cannot pack the bar even if thirsty punters show up: there's not enough seats and nobody is allowed to stand.

Separately, met an accountant yesterday. He works with loads of small businesses, including several city centre restaurants and cafes. All are way down on sales because passing trade is depressed (fewer buying coffees on the way to work) and seating is limited because they are in old city buildings.

Point is: those cafes/restaurants/pubs can't sustain it. If several of them close, their plumbers, accountants, electricians, solicitors etc. will also feel it.

People will miss mortgage/rent payments; banks will grow wary of lending again. Hopefully it will be just for a year or two, but the decline could be sharp.

Danzy

House construction is falling off a cliff so that will shore demand.

Add in the ECB is going to have to stimulate to a massive degree to keep the Euro stable.

Leading economists were already concerned about it facing a normal recession.

SozBbz

Deleted User wrote: »

Feels like there's a bit of 'just glad to be back' excitement in some pubs/cafés, but many of them were just getting by pre-COVID. Now they are facing a dip in turnover that will wipe out profit margins and lead to closures.

Maybe I'm being a bit pessimistic and focusing on negative anecdotes I've picked up. But I keep hearing them!

Spoke to a plumber yesterday who does some work in local pubs. One well-established place said they are giving it three weeks to see how it goes but their seating is down by more than 50% due to their layout. And the big money-making days where the place is packed - like big matches - have evaporated. They cannot pack the bar even if thirsty punters show up: there's not enough seats and nobody is allowed to stand.

Separately, met an accountant yesterday. He works with loads of small businesses, including several city centre restaurants and cafes. All are way down on sales because passing trade is depressed (fewer buying coffees on the way to work) and seating is limited because they are in old city buildings.

Point is: those cafes/restaurants/pubs can't sustain it. If several of them close, their plumbers, accountants, electricians, solicitors etc. will also feel it.

People will miss mortgage/rent payments; banks will grow wary of lending again. Hopefully it will be just for a year or two, but the decline could be sharp.

Firstly on mortgage payments -they can be deferred, it won't trigger arrears or anything like that.

The landscape will definitely be different, but the hospitality trade has always been tough and there have always been businesses sailing close to the wind. There will be again in future no doubt - its just the nature of the business. Its adapt of die time, and many are adapting, but some will die.

I think we'll see changes - yes certain places in town that depended on the office trade will be in trouble, but subruban places are doing really well. My local village is full of upmarket eateries and they've all queues outside at lunch with people picking up take away and more recently they're all as busy as they're allowed to be.

I was in Grafton St last friday for the first time since the shops reopened. Plenty of people around spending money.

I also was talking to a plumber yesterday - he was here to fix my dishwasher -took me over a week to get someone, they all said they're out the door with work.

Came across this earlier.

https://www.allthefood.ie/single-post/2020/07/07/Five-New-Openings-In-Dublin