Recession: Which falls first - rent or house prices?

Wanderer78

Claw Hammer wrote: »

I don't follow your logic. I'm not recommending buying in recession. IM recommending buying in recovery, if you want to buy at all.

ta hell with that, if your in the position, go for it, you could pick up a bargain

Claw Hammer

Wanderer78 wrote: »

ta hell with that, if your in the position, go for it, you could pick up a bargain

It will only be a bargain if it comes good in the long term. Buying just because you can, may well lock you out of other better deals which may appear as the recession goes on.

Wanderer78

Claw Hammer wrote: »

It will only be a bargain if it comes good in the long term. Buying just because you can, may well lock you out of other better deals which may appear as the recession goes on.

true, but theres no perfect time to buy, accurate forecasting of future economic conditions isnt possible

Claw Hammer

Wanderer78 wrote: »

true, but theres no perfect time to buy, accurate forecasting of future economic conditions isnt possible

I am not talking about perfect, I'm talking about best time.

Wanderer78

Claw Hammer wrote: »

I am not talking about perfect, I'm talking about best time.

doesnt exist, nobody knows what this is, its very personal, it comes down to where the individual is in life, if its good, go for it, and hope it works out because theres effectively no best time

...Ghost...

SozBbz wrote: »

You actually sound hysterical and offensive.

If following the govt advice didn’t work, then why have our numbers come right down? You’re talking as if we were actually mislead - are you for real? It was a brand new virus, the evidence evolved over time and advice was modified. Yes the govt could go stronger on masks but overall they did a good job and I’m sure could do without fear mongers like you spreading hysteria.

I have cancelled holidays at my own cost, not seen my family for months, wear a mask, keep my distance, wash and sanitise my hands regularly, downloaded the app, yet I’m selfish because now that the govt and medical advisors have cleared us to go to restaurants under limited conditions, I do that? Get off your high horse.

Are you saying that you know better than Dr Tony Holohan? Because I know who I’d rather listen to.

:pac::pac::pac:

I can see you decided to be defensive before reading my post. It was your attitude I was talking about. That's the selfish part. Your statement was that there was no need to do more than what the guidelines unless you are in a high risk category. Yes, I think that is a selfish attitude to have. Sounds like you agree as it has clearly hit a nerve.

What is hysterical and offensive about pointing out a few facts? The Government never gave us a good reason as to why they recommended against wearing face masks, did they? We are dealing with a highly infectious disease which can be spread by respiratory droplets. Why did they give advice to the contrary if not to protect the supply lines?

If the Gov were doing the right thing, they wouldn't be rushing the reopening of the economy. They wouldn't be halving the social distancing guidelines just to get kids back to school. They wouldn't be allowing non essential travel to foreign countries without enforcing self isolation upon return.

I would love to see things return to normal, but at this point in time, we have seen exactly what happens to countries who have few restrictions and countries which have now relaxed restrictions. Ireland has already gone from an R value of 0.3 to "at or above 1" in two weeks. The highest estimate is 2.49.

And please don't be accusing me of spreading hysteria. That's just lame. I think this is the only thread I have spoken about the corona virus with the exception of asking about the testing criteria when the pandemic was new.

The OP topic has been side tracked enough. I'll let the bold part speak for itself. Stay Safe.

Claw Hammer

Wanderer78 wrote: »

doesnt exist, nobody knows what this is, its very personal, it comes down to where the individual is in life, if its good, go for it, and hope it works out because theres effectively no best time

I'm not talking about the best time for an individual. I'm talking about the best time in the property cycle to make such an investment.

Wanderer78

Claw Hammer wrote: »

I'm not talking about the best time for an individual. I'm talking about the best time in the property cycle to make such an investment.

there is no best time for such things, accurate predictions of future economic outcomes simply isnt possible, people make their best guess and hope for the best, investment is a risk because full knowledge isnt possible as theres asymmetries of information

The Belly

Wanderer78 wrote: »

there is no best time for such things, accurate predictions of future economic outcomes simply isnt possible, people make their best guess and hope for the best, investment is a risk because full knowledge isnt possible as theres asymmetries of information

Many people here and abroad predicted the last financial crisis and subsequent housing collapse.

They were of course ridiculed and ignored. So it is very possible to look at the data and predict what the economic landscape would look like.

The figures dont lie politicans the media and vested interested do.

Wanderer78

The Belly wrote: »

Many people here and abroad predicted the last financial crisis and subsequent housing collapse.

They were of course ridiculed and ignored. So it is very possible to look at the data and predict what the economic landscape would look like.

The figures dont lie politicans the media and vested interested do.

i follow the work of a couple of those individuals, none of them accurately predicted its time, because its simply not possible, pettifor realized it was gonna happen in 03, she was surprised the boom limped on for longer.

our political institutions are stuck in dangerous thinking, largely neoclassical thinking, we re currently experiencing its failures, possible collapse, its probably a good idea we do something about it

Claw Hammer

Wanderer78 wrote: »

there is no best time for such things, accurate predictions of future economic outcomes simply isnt possible, people make their best guess and hope for the best, investment is a risk because full knowledge isnt possible as theres asymmetries of information

There is a property cycle which repeats and repeats and has done for several hundred years. There are points in the cycle which can be reasonably identified and action taken. There is no need to identify the point precisely it simply a matter of identifying the trend and thus where the cycle is going next.

Wanderer78

Claw Hammer wrote: »

There is a property cycle which repeats and repeats and has done for several hundred years. There are points in the cycle which can be reasonably identified and action taken. There is no need to identify the point precisely it simply a matter of identifying the trend and thus where the cycle is going next.

of course theres cycles, its an (un)fortunate way we have designed our economies, forecasts of downturns are truly dreadful, neoclassical models are known to be truly dreadful at doing this, completely missing particularly the last downturn, again, nobody can accurately predict these cycles, models are extremely inaccurate, its ultimately luck

Claw Hammer

Wanderer78 wrote: »

of course theres cycles, its an (un)fortunate way we have designed our economies, forecasts of downturns are truly dreadful, neoclassical models are known to be truly dreadful at doing this, completely missing particularly the last downturn, again, nobody can accurately predict these cycles, models are extremely inaccurate, its ultimately luck

I am not talking about predicting cycles, I'm simply document identifying what is happening at a particular time. It is generally fairly obvious there is a downturn. It can be identified without much bother when there is the beginnings of a pickup.

perfectkama

should this be moved to cv19?

Lux23

I feel like people who have just bought houses are talking down the recession and those that want to buy are talking it up. If people decide to wait, demand will dry up and then supply may increase for those that still want to buy? But I also feel like a lot people will take their property of the market to see what happens so it could go either way. I don't think we can expect any growth in the market though.

Wanderer78

Lux23 wrote: »

I feel like people who have just bought houses are talking down the recession and those that want to buy are talking it up. If people decide to wait, demand will dry up and then supply may increase for those that still want to buy? But I also feel like a lot people will take their property of the market to see what happens so it could go either way. I don't think we can expect any growth in the market though.

supply needs money, generally this comes from the private sector, but the private sector will have limited capacity, it will have to largely come from the public sector

Lux23

That is true, but if people don't get back to work than surely the demand will fall too?

Wanderer78

Lux23 wrote: »

That is true, but if people don't get back to work than surely the demand will fall too?

how will demand fall, people will still need houses and some sort of accommodation no matter what state the economy is, in fact demand will continue to rise, no matter what

Lux23

It fell during the last recession, didn't it?

Wanderer78

Lux23 wrote: »

It fell during the last recession, didn't it?

wouldnt say so, a few thousand ended up in 'temporary' accommodation, largely still there, and people continued to have kids, who have grown up, and still need to be accommodated

Wanting to buy a house (if that's how you define 'demand') does not always equate to ability to buy a house.

Or willingness to buy might be curtailed by the level of credit people can get.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

Wanting to buy a house (if that's how you define 'demand') does not always equate to ability to buy a house.

Or willingness to buy might be curtailed by the level of credit people can get.

availability of credit being one of the main causes of property price inflation

Lux23

Wanderer78 wrote: »

wouldnt say so, a few thousand ended up in 'temporary' accommodation, largely still there, and people continued to have kids, who have grown up, and still need to be accommodated

That didn't happen until rents started to go up in 2013, rents fell massively from 2007 to 2012 - I rented a two bed for €900 in 2012 and €950 in 2013 - it would be double that now.

Wanderer78

Lux23 wrote: »

That didn't happen until rents started to go up in 2013, rents fell massively from 2007 to 2012 - I rented a two bed for €900 in 2012 and €950 in 2013 - it would be double that now.

its been known for over 10 years now that we were running out of accommodation, particularly in the dublin region, commentators such as ronan and tom lyons were reporting this regularly while we were talking about ghost estates. price alone does not dictate demand

JimmyVik

Wanderer78 wrote: »

how will demand fall, people will still need houses and some sort of accommodation no matter what state the economy is, in fact demand will continue to rise, no matter what

Job losses would be the main killer of demand.

Lux23

JimmyVik wrote: »

Job losses would be the main killer of demand.

Exactly, although we are unlikely to see the numbers emigrating like we did the last time.

JimmyVik

Lux23 wrote: »

Exactly, although we are unlikely to see the numbers emigrating like we did the last time.

Stay or go, they wont be buying a house without a good job and income though.