Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

The_Conductor

Sam Hain wrote: »

That particular apartment must have been on the market for over two years. Not an impressive property by any stretch of the imagination.

The postage sized photographs on myhome.ie didn't inspire any confidence in the property whatsoever, to say nothing of the frightening set of steps outside.
They did well getting what they got for it............

CertifiedSimp

Anyone buying now, I believe the upside on prices is low. Pre Covid the prices had already levelled off.

Now, with all the uncertainty, Brexit etc. I can't see prices rising for at least 18 months - 2 years at best.

From what I can see, the prices advertised are not different to pre Covid. So I think you have to look at it from a distance...why would you pay the same price now as you would have in August last year when we have a pandemic and life has changed so much for so many.

CertifiedSimp

Anyone know what the story is when an ad gets put up and a couple days later the ad is gone again?

Hawthorn Tree

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Back in April/ May lads were predicting a price collapse in June/July, in July it was early Autumn. in August it was late this year early next year, now we are getting prediction of 1-2 years time.

Anyone making predictions based on weeks/months or even a quarter is utterly clueless. The market was essentially broken and there is always going to be significant lag times.

House prices started falling in 2008. They bottomed out in 2013.

I believe the Unemployment rate peaked in 2012, one year before the bottom of the housing market.

I think we will see massive redundancies when the government subsidy/welfare schemes peter out next year.

Bass Reeves

CertifiedSimp wrote: »

Anyone know what the story is when an ad gets put up and a couple days later the ad is gone again?

Usually the house is sold

edjkdkjdhjkd

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

You sound like Donie Cassidy (FF) of Clifden Golfgate fame. He was trying to shift loads of properties in Dublin and he used his position as Leader of the Seanad to convince young people to buy houses when he saw the writing on the wall.

April 2008



It is highly unlikely that now is a good time to buy houses. Highly unlikely. Odds are stacked against. The economic impacts of Covid19 will take years to play out. Years. Not weeks or months. Years.
For a start, over 500,000 people (could be 600,000) are getting wage subsidies or pandemic unemployment payments from the government. We will not even begin to know where we stand until those payments start to dry up next year. Thats just one example. Tourism is at 10% of capacity at best; when will that get back to 50% of 2019 levels even? Just another example. And then we have the dreaded 2nd wave which could hammer our GDP growth again. We also have a timebomb on our hospital waiting lists and undiagnosed illnesses. I could go on.

It's hilarious, it's completely obvious as well. I doubt even the poster themselves believes it tbh.



The writing is on the wall for this economy, zero chance of inflation, in fact deflation is highly likely.

edjkdkjdhjkd

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Back in April/ May lads were predicting a price collapse in June/July, in July it was early Autumn. in August it was late this year early next year, now we are getting prediction of 1-2 years time.

As I have said before I expect prices if they fall to be a max of 10% but the market looks steady at the moment.




And this is a huge factor, do people wait 12-18 months to see if this happens, how will this impact on there ability to get a mortgage, do they continue to rent for 6-12-18 months and then be told well house prices will drop 20% in the next 18 months and again rent for that period. Then you are 3-4 years down the road and 40-50K paid in rent over that time period

Incorrect, may predicted a drop but stated it would take awhile before the it hits the property market. We also didn't know this Covid payment (which is quite literally the only thing keeping this economy breathing) would be extended until 2021.



It's been said before, once this Covid payment ends, poverty rates will sky rocket and tens of thousands will also end up on the dole when they find there is no job to return to once restrictions are lifted and countless establishments will go out of business.



This economic collapse will be global and severely worse than 2008. But yeah the Irish market will hold strong and flourish :rolleyes:

TheSheriff

edjkdkjdhjkd wrote: »

Incorrect, may predicted a drop but stated it would take awhile before the it hits the property market. We also didn't know this Covid payment (which is quite literally the only thing keeping this economy breathing) would be extended until 2021.



It's been said before, once this Covid payment ends, poverty rates will sky rocket and tens of thousands will also end up on the dole when they find there is no job to return to once restrictions are lifted and countless establishments will go out of business.



This economic collapse will be global and severely worse than 2008. But yeah the Irish market will hold strong and flourish :rolleyes:

Literally I was on here in Feb, and people were saying by July I'd grab a 2 bed in Drogheda for 20k and a second beach front property in Wexford.

Hoffmans

The market is dictated by Vulture funds they have parked Billions here inflating rents and prices around the country, nothing will drop until they decidebto leave or the cowardly state decide to properly tax them🀔

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

FYI if interested. Article in today's Irish Times that the "number of homes available to buy in August falls to lowest level in 14 years".

What I found interesting was the line "This was the lowest August total recorded since 2006.".

Make what you will of that statement.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/number-of-homes-available-to-buy-in-august-falls-to-lowest-level-in-14-years-1.4335625

I have been making this point over and over that the supply side is going down just as quick as people access to funds and pointing out if both supply and demand go down price stays the same but I have been laughed out of it again and again for pointing out whats going on.

edjkdkjdhjkd

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

Anyone making predictions based on weeks/months or even a quarter is utterly clueless. The market was essentially broken and there is always going to be significant lag times.

House prices started falling in 2008. They bottomed out in 2013.

I believe the Unemployment rate peaked in 2012, one year before the bottom of the housing market.

I think we will see massive redundancies when the government subsidy/welfare schemes peter out next year.

^ Pretty much this


The original poster is making things up, very few claimed prices would crash within weeks/months, the majority stated it would take some time to see the true impact of the upcoming property crash.


Agreed, many in our extended social circle have lost their jobs and these would've been considered "Upper middle class/white collar" positions, many who are on the covid sub are not optimistic of having a job to return to either. This is all anecdotal of course but if quite literally, let's say 7/10 people you know around you are losing their jobs or have had their incomes severely impacted it doesn't take an economic genius to figure out what will happen to all aspects of the economy.

Hawthorn Tree

TheSheriff wrote: »

Literally I was on here in Feb, and people were saying by July I'd grab a 2 bed in Drogheda for 20k and a second beach front property in Wexford.

Ok but you realise those people are crazy, right? It never works that way, never. Can you send a link to the worst example just for laughs.

As I said, it will take years to play out. So many strange factors at play now too (A little known virus and possible vaccine timeline, 2nd waves, 2nd lockdowns, Government subsidies, Mortgage holidays, Aviation/Tourism industry issues, future Work-from-Home impacts, Bank balance sheets, PIIGS country debt, Emigration etc etc etc).

edjkdkjdhjkd

fliball123 wrote: »

I have been making this point over and over that the supply side is going down just as quick as people access to funds and pointing out if both supply and demand go down price stays the same but I have been laughed out of it again and again for pointing out whats going on.

Supply isn't dropping in all areas, people will still need to sell regardless of covid, due to deaths, the incoming mass redundancies/job losses, relocating (will be a big one), divorce/separation (which will also be a large % of sales, due to lockdown).



Not everyone selling their house will take it off the market due to market conditions, people still need to sell regardless. If you think people will take a property off the market after suffering a death of a loved one, divorce or job loss and plan to wait for market recovery just because the market isn't ideal and they could've got more in 2018 (at the height of a bubble), you are kidding yourself.

edjkdkjdhjkd

TheSheriff wrote: »

Literally I was on here in Feb, and people were saying by July I'd grab a 2 bed in Drogheda for 20k and a second beach front property in Wexford.

If that was true (which i doubt), those would be in the small minority and were either trolling or taking the p!ss. You will find the majority who predicted the upcoming crash stated it would take time as property usually lags general economic conditions.


Please link to posts for a laugh

wassie

edjkdkjdhjkd wrote: »

^ Pretty much this

The original poster is making things up, very few claimed prices would crash within weeks/months, the majority stated it would take some time to see the true impact of the upcoming property crash.

Agreed, many in our extended social circle have lost their jobs and these would've been considered "Upper middle class/white collar" positions, many who are on the covid sub are not optimistic of having a job to return to either.

This is all anecdotal of course but if quite literally, let's say 7/10 people you know around you are losing their jobs or have had their incomes severely impacted it doesn't take an economic genius to figure out what will happen to all aspects of the economy.

It is anecdotal. I see no evidence to suggest 70% of people are losing jobs or having incomes reduced.

Bass Reeves

edjkdkjdhjkd wrote: »

Incorrect, may predicted a drop but stated it would take awhile before the it hits the property market. We also didn't know this Covid payment (which is quite literally the only thing keeping this economy breathing) would be extended until 2021.



It's been said before, once this Covid payment ends, poverty rates will sky rocket and tens of thousands will also end up on the dole when they find there is no job to return to once restrictions are lifted and countless establishments will go out of business.



This economic collapse will be global and severely worse than 2008. But yeah the Irish market will hold strong and flourish :rolleyes:

As we have pointed out many times before in 2008 we had an over supply of houses this caused a house price collapse. There are no property bulls here thinking prices will climb rather there are some posters pointing out about a collapse that house supply dose not suggest will happen.

Yes retail and hospitality is struggling. However most resturants and food bars that are open are doing extremely well at present. Evidence is showing that the tourism season held up by Irish demand not a bumper year but there has been worse. COVID payment will slowly drip away, already the Government is putting in place regulation that employers must show there turnover has dropped 30% to continue to access funds. Every evidence is showing the economy recovering not a V shaped but a gradual slow steady recovery.

We have a large amount of tech and pharma multnationals. Most solution being looked at by companies are tech based so we can expect that in general the tech side of the economy will do ok.

The real interesting thing is the pharma side. Last week Regeneron in Limerick announced 400 new jobs. The relocation of work to free up space elsewhere to produce a vaccine. In any medical emergency pharma companies will be more profitable. I be more worried about 4-5 years time that the next 1-2 years

brisan

Bass Reeves wrote: »

As we have pointed out many times before in 2008 we had an over supply of houses this caused a house price collapse. There are no property bulls here thinking prices will climb rather there are some posters pointing out about a collapse that house supply dose not suggest will happen.

Yes retail and hospitality is struggling. However most resturants and food bars that are open are doing extremely well at present. Evidence is showing that the tourism season held up by Irish demand not a bumper year but there has been worse. COVID payment will slowly drip away, already the Government is putting in place regulation that employers must show there turnover has dropped 30% to continue to access funds. Every evidence is showing the economy recovering not a V shaped but a gradual slow steady recovery.

We have a large amount of tech and pharma multnationals. Most solution being looked at by companies are tech based so we can expect that in general the tech side of the economy will do ok.


The real interesting thing is the pharma side. Last week Regeneron in Limerick announced 400 new jobs. The relocation of work to free up space elsewhere to produce a vaccine. In any medical emergency pharma companies will be more profitable. I be more worried about 4-5 years time that the next 1-2 years

Any links to prove this.
I was in the Bank ON Dame street on Sat and the barman said due to social distancing and having to buy food takings are way down .
My local is in the same boat
Busy Fri Sat Sun ,dead during the week but even Busy times are no comparison to pre lockdown due to social distancing rules

Hawthorn Tree

Bass Reeves wrote: »

As we have pointed out many times before in 2008 we had an over supply of houses this caused a house price collapse. There are no property bulls here thinking prices will climb rather there are some posters pointing out about a collapse that house supply dose not suggest will happen.

Yes retail and hospitality is struggling. However most resturants and food bars that are open are doing extremely well at present. Evidence is showing that the tourism season held up by Irish demand not a bumper year but there has been worse. COVID payment will slowly drip away, already the Government is putting in place regulation that employers must show there turnover has dropped 30% to continue to access funds. Every evidence is showing the economy recovering not a V shaped but a gradual slow steady recovery.

We have a large amount of tech and pharma multnationals. Most solution being looked at by companies are tech based so we can expect that in general the tech side of the economy will do ok.

The real interesting thing is the pharma side. Last week Regeneron in Limerick announced 400 new jobs. The relocation of work to free up space elsewhere to produce a vaccine. In any medical emergency pharma companies will be more profitable. I be more worried about 4-5 years time that the next 1-2 years

You will see job losses in every sector next year including IT and Pharma/MedTech. Demand for many products and services have fallen significantly. The government schemes are masking the impact currently.

I live in Galway. Aptar announced closure a few days ago. 115 jobs.
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0828/1161945-job-losses/

It's only one example I know but when global GDP declines, then demand declines. We are susceptible to that.

Bass Reeves

brisan wrote: »

Any links to prove this.
I was in the Bank ON Dame street on Sat and the barman said due to social distancing and having to buy food takings are way down .
My local is in the same boat
Busy Fri Sat Sun ,dead during the week but even Busy times are no comparison to pre lockdown due to social distancing rules

I have heard the opposite most Resturants and pubs that specialize in food are doing ok and the state is picking up 70% of wages

fliball123

Pelezico wrote: »

The market is not hot. Mortgage approvals down. Mortgage lending down. Number of houses sold down.

Number of houses available down and prices not gone down at all and have been fairly flat. This has been pointed out to you over and over do I need to get the 2 links to the the CSO and PPR websites again. I cant believe your still spinning lies you are actually starting to sound desperate for a crash at this stage.

brisan

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I have heard the opposite most Resturants and pubs that specialize in food are doing ok and the state is picking up 70% of wages

So they are doing well because they are not paying full wages
What happens when subsidies stop and they have to pay full wages
Or does the taxpayer keep paying their wages till we find a vaccine

fliball123

beauf wrote: »

There banks are backlogged with applications. No one can get anything done.

Just anecdotally and I have no viable proof as its word to mouth but a colleague of mine in work went for a mortgage there in July. He had to get the usual paperwork and didn't get everything submitted till the 20th of August the lad in Ulster bank told him he had to get his August pay slip so he had to wait until today for his August payslip to get all his documentation together to be submitted to the underwriters..This is where the banks are at they are double and triple checking everything and he was told he would need another payslip for September before he could draw down the funds and it is this approach that is causing delays and backlog but I think the banks are right to be careful.

CertifiedSimp

Boards is acting up today.

edjkdkjdhjkd

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I have heard the opposite most Resturants and pubs that specialize in food are doing ok and the state is picking up 70% of wages

LOL, exactly. Because the state is paying the tab. Which goes back to what everybody with a rational brain cell is saying, once this Covid payment is stopped we will see the full impact of the economic crash and followed by the property crash.


Based on what I've seen after visiting 3 cities over the past two weeks, restaurants are not busy at all. I don't have evidence to show that they are doing poor financially though.

Deub

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I have heard the opposite most Resturants and pubs that specialize in food are doing ok and the state is picking up 70% of wages

Are doing ok or extremely well?

For an employer to get EWSS, they need to forecast a loss of 30% of their business. So they may be profitable but it would be surprising they are doing better than before.

PropQueries

Interesting opinion article in the Irish Times today titled “New State body required to build homes and tackle housing crisis”.

What grabbed my attention was the line “Spending on HAP increased 563 per cent over the four years. The average monthly rent subsidy in 2019 was €1,872”

Hands on heart. Can any of the upper management types here honestly say they could or would be willing to pay this rent along with having a family, bills, car payments, insurance, health costs etc. etc.

I don’t believe that this would be the “market rent” if the state wasn’t agreeing to pay it. This is not the fault of the HAP recipients.

Irish Times article link here: https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/new-state-body-required-to-build-homes-and-tackle-housing-crisis-1.4342234

At the same time: “Free GP care for older children on hold indefinitely”.

Irish Independent article link here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/free-gp-care-for-older-children-on-hold-indefinitely-39488829.html

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting opinion article in the Irish Times today titled “New State body required to build homes and tackle housing crisis”.

What grabbed my attention was the line “Spending on HAP increased 563 per cent over the four years. The average monthly rent subsidy in 2019 was €1,872”

Hands on heart. Can any of the upper management types here honestly say they could or would be willing to pay this rent along with having a family, bills, car payments, insurance, health costs etc. etc.

I don’t believe that this would be the “market rent” if the state wasn’t agreeing to pay it. This is not the fault of the HAP recipients.

Irish Times article link here: https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/new-state-body-required-to-build-homes-and-tackle-housing-crisis-1.4342234

At the same time: “Free GP care for older children on hold indefinitely”.

Irish Independent article link here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/free-gp-care-for-older-children-on-hold-indefinitely-39488829.html

Something wrong in those figures. Mid west single person allowance is 420 euro, family 7-800 euro. Hard to see an average of nearly 1900 with figures like that

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Something wrong in those figures. Mid west single person allowance is 420 euro, family 7-800 euro. Hard to see an average of nearly 1900 with figures like that

True. Maybe it's a misprint. But then again...the Children's Hospital...

A neighbour of mines son is receiving HAP support for a one bed studio in the city centre for €1,350. Maybe it's correct.

Bass Reeves

Deub wrote: »

Are doing ok or extremely well?

For an employer to get EWSS, they need to forecast a loss of 30% of their business. So they may be profitable but it would be surprising they are doing better than before.

That the new rules and AFAIK it a 30%drop in turnover not profit. Turn over being down might not be as hard on profitability if wages one of your main costs is reduced by 75%. As we rates rebates are helping

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

True. Maybe it's a misprint. But then again...the Children's Hospital...

A neighbour of mines son is receiving HAP support for a one bed studio in the city centre for €1,350. Maybe it's correct.

That is still below the average