Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Assetbacked

brisan wrote: »

Exactly
As I have said on countless occasions ,landlords of today are paying for the sins of their predecessors (and some bad apples today )
I know one landlord with six rented properties in one complex and 2 of the tenants have not paid rent of 1750 since 1st March
If they continue to not pay due to covid payments ,what can the landlord do
He could be 20k plus out of pocket if they just walk after 6 months
Even if they do not walk ,how will they pay the arrears and how long will it take them
Can they afford a rent increase if the LL decides to impose one when this is over

This notion of tenants paying arrears is a carrot and stick to get landlords to not kick up too much of a fuss but, as you say, the reason tenants won't be paying their rent during the ban is predominantly due to not being able to pay and there is no way they will be on the hook for arrears in these circumstances.

brisan

Assetbacked wrote: »

This notion of tenants paying arrears is a carrot and stick to get landlords to not kick up too much of a fuss but, as you say, the reason tenants won't be paying their rent during the ban is predominantly due to not being able to pay and there is no way they will be on the hook for arrears in these circumstances.

So who will pay the arrears ??
The State, the banks to whom the mortgage is owed to.or will the landlord have to suck it up.??
s you say I cannot see the tenants paying the arrears
I am not sure if you have to prove you are financially affected to stop paying rent or can you decide to just not pay.
Who decides
Another poorly thought out good intentioned plan

MrMusician18

JimmyVik wrote: »

All 200+ people in my company are working from home.
We were originally told to all be back in the office 3rd week in August. So most who could have, gave up their rentals or room shares and went home to either their own countries or counties.
Now we have been told everyone is to be back in the office on 1st September. I wonder if everyone will come back.
I think some will just quit and stay in their own countries. All the ones I know who are in the country in Ireland want back to Dublin asap.

I wouldnt feel the same myself, but most seem to.

To my knowledge, there was no purge of culchies from Dublin if they wanted to stay in the city during the pandemic. It's just that they, perhaps decided that they wanted to go home, save money or actually prefer the lifestyle in their rural areas?

Wanderer78

brisan wrote: »

So who will pay the arrears ??
The State, the banks to whom the mortgage is owed to.or will the landlord have to suck it up.??
s you say I cannot see the tenants paying the arrears
I am not sure if you have to prove you are financially affected to stop paying rent or can you decide to just not pay.
Who decides
Another poorly thought out good intentioned plan

financial institutions will ultimately gain, as they will gain full control of the asset if arrears occur, baring in mind, they created the credit in the first place that was used to purchase the asset.

JimmyVik

Cantstandsya wrote: »

I want a private jet, what way does that affect private jet prices?

Im jetless at the moment.

I'll take a government supplied one please.

JimmyVik

brisan wrote: »

Exactly
As I have said on countless occasions ,landlords of today are paying for the sins of their predecessors (and some bad apples today )
I know one landlord with six rented properties in one complex and 2 of the tenants have not paid rent of 1750 since 1st March
If they continue to not pay due to covid payments ,what can the landlord do
He could be 20k plus out of pocket if they just walk after 6 months
Even if they do not walk ,how will they pay the arrears and how long will it take them
Can they afford a rent increase if the LL decides to impose one when this is over

Wait for the legislation that says a landlord cannot ever evict because of rent arrears accumulated during Covid. Its coming.

Assetbacked

brisan wrote: »

So who will pay the arrears ??
The State, the banks to whom the mortgage is owed to.or will the landlord have to suck it up.??
s you say I cannot see the tenants paying the arrears
I am not sure if you have to prove you are financially affected to stop paying rent or can you decide to just not pay.
Who decides
Another poorly thought out good intentioned plan

Who pays? The landlord will have to suck it up is my guess, but I don't think when they drafted this law that there was any other intention.

JimmyVik

MrMusician18 wrote: »

To my knowledge, there was no purge of culchies from Dublin if they wanted to stay in the city during the pandemic. It's just that they, perhaps decided that they wanted to go home, save money or actually prefer the lifestyle in their rural areas?

The ones ive spoken to about it , their reasons were Save money, why pay rent, and wanted to look after parents during lockdown.

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

/ Posted at 5:46am.

You can keep your early morning workouts and kale smoothies, that sort of stuff doesn't contribute to over the top housing market predictions the way a feed of pints does!

You sir, deserve and award for this post. I shall keep this in mind next time i decide to contribute my expert opinion and analysis to this thread.

M256

Working from home in Ireland is not the same as working remotely from a different tax jurisdiction. If foreign workers, mainly in IT employed by MNCs, start leaving Ireland it will be a much bigger issue than just housing prices as it impacts the fundamental reasons while MNCs are in Ireland.

My point is that property prices in certain areas of Dublin will be less important than they used to be.

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

Who pays? The landlord will have to suck it up is my guess, but I don't think when they drafted this law that there was any other intention.

I would be concerned about landlords that rely on this income - rent could be some pensioners’ only income for example.

Assetbacked

Hubertj wrote: »

I would be concerned about landlords that rely on this income - rent could be some pensioners’ only income for example.

I think the concern could be offset by the fact they own the asset which is presumably mortgage free if they're living off the income from the rent. They are probably not living rental month to rental month in any event.

brisan

Hubertj wrote: »

I would be concerned about landlords that rely on this income - rent could be some pensioners’ only income for example.

As many have done or intend to do they could sell the property once the eviction ban ends
Until then the OAP will have to get them by

hometruths

Assetbacked wrote: »

I think the concern could be offset by the fact they own the asset which is presumably mortgage free if they're living off the income from the rent. They are probably not living rental month to rental month in any event.

I guess by concern being offset you mean the net level of concern is zero?

i.e who gives a stuff that they are out of pocket 1000s of euro? Somebody has to pay for it - god forbid it should be the tenant, nor the taxpayer, so given that the landlord owns the asset they are the obvious easy target.

Worth remembering whenever you hear people trot out the benefits of property investment for retirement income.

LasersGoPewPew

There will be no drop in residential property prices in desirable areas in South Dublin in the 400-600k range. People who own these desireable properties will hold on until the economic crisis has passed. I have been searching for 8 months. Any properties I bid on in this range have all sold above list price which I have been tracking meticulously. There are buyers pulling out of deals but they're only chancing their arm for a discount

This thread is filled dreamers and fear mongers

brisan

schmittel wrote: »

I guess by concern being offset you mean the net level of concern is zero?

i.e who gives a stuff that they are out of pocket 1000s of euro? Somebody has to pay for it - god forbid it should be the tenant, nor the taxpayer, so given that the landlord owns the asset they are the obvious easy target.

Worth remembering whenever you hear people trot out the benefits of property investment for retirement income.

Not worth the hassle or the money anymore
When you retire you should expect and want a hassle and stress free life
However greed is a dangerous thing and the lure of free money from an appreciating asset is hard to resist

Cyrus

JimmyVik wrote: »

, and wanted to look after parents during lockdown.

more likely the other way around :P

Cyrus

Assetbacked wrote: »

Headline; "House prices rose slightly in May despite lockdown limiting sales".

Article; "Month on month there was a fall of 0.1pc in May."

It's purposely misleading as house prices did in fact fall in May, it is in comparison to May of last year that they are slightly higher.

so year over year they rose, slightly, month over month they fell (even more slightly)

they chose to look at the year over year figures, either way its marginal, but isnt pointing to the 15-20% drops the hungry horde here are suggesting (mostly because they are in the market :P)

hometruths

brisan wrote: »

Not worth the hassle or the money anymore
When you retire you should expect and want a hassle and stress free life
However greed is a dangerous thing and the lure of free money from an appreciating asset is hard to resist

that may all be true, but my point is it should not be the landlord picking up the tab.

It should be the tenant, or if the government decides that it is too big a burden for the tenant to bear, cost should be borne by the taxpayer.

ngunners

LasersGoPewPew wrote: »

There will be no drop in residential property prices in desirable areas in South Dublin in the 400-600k range. People who own these desireable properties will hold on until the economic crisis has passed. I have been searching for 8 months. Any properties I bid on in this range have all sold above list price which I have been tracking meticulously. There are buyers pulling out of deals but they're only chancing their arm for a discount

This thread is filled dreamers and fear mongers

There are desirable places to live (to most people at least) in Dublin/ Ireland apart from particular pockets of South Dublin.

Cyrus

ngunners wrote: »

There are desirable places to live (to most people at least) in Dublin/ Ireland apart from particular pockets of South Dublin.

i dont think he said otherwise did he?

brisan

LasersGoPewPew wrote: »

There will be no drop in residential property prices in desirable areas in South Dublin in the 400-600k range. People who own these desireable properties will hold on until the economic crisis has passed. I have been searching for 8 months. Any properties I bid on in this range have all sold above list price which I have been tracking meticulously. There are buyers pulling out of deals but they're only chancing their arm for a discount

This thread is filled dreamers and fear mongers

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/sharp-fall-in-home-sales-in-april-as-analysts-warn-of-worse-to-come-1.4281383

Assetbacked

schmittel wrote: »

I guess by concern being offset you mean the net level of concern is zero?

i.e who gives a stuff that they are out of pocket 1000s of euro? Somebody has to pay for it - god forbid it should be the tenant, nor the taxpayer, so given that the landlord owns the asset they are the obvious easy target.

Worth remembering whenever you hear people trot out the benefits of property investment for retirement income.

Yes, net concern at zero. Property investment is highly speculative. In any event, there is an asset which can be sold. I think the concern towards the investor can be offset as a result.

Deub

schmittel wrote: »

that may all be true, but my point is it should not be the landlord picking up the tab.

It should be the tenant, or if the government decides that it is too big a burden for the tenant to bear, cost should be borne by the taxpayer.

It should be tenants only. If the state uses taxpayer money, being landlord would become a risk free business.

hometruths

Assetbacked wrote: »

Yes, net concern at zero. Property investment is highly speculative. In any event, there is an asset which can be sold. I think the concern towards the investor can be offset as a result.

Property investment is speculative because of various future risks such as long vacancy periods, property damage, capital losses etc.

In the case we are talking about the landlord has already provided the service in good faith - i.e these are historical arrears.

The sure they can afford it attitude sets quite a dangerous precedent. What other services could such logic apply to? It could feasibly apply to any commercial transaction.

I have no problem with government deciding that richer people should pay to support poorer people, but the way to do that is raise taxes and then pick up these sort of costs collectively.

To simply tell individuals, tough sh*t, suck it up, sure you can afford it, will create many more problems than it solves.

Be careful what you wish for to quote Bass Reeves et al.

brisan

Deub wrote: »

It should be tenants only. If the state uses taxpayer money, being landlord would become a risk free business.

If the tenants cant or wont pay the arrears someone has to suffer.

Assetbacked

Cyrus wrote: »

so year over year they rose, slightly, month over month they fell (even more slightly)

they chose to look at the year over year figures, either way its marginal, but isnt pointing to the 15-20% drops the hungry horde here are suggesting (mostly because they are in the market :P)

My point was just that the headline was misleading. But that data on house prices falling or stalling is pre-covid impact so the trend was for a slight correction/downward trend. I think 15-20% drops aren't actually big if in 2 years they gradually reduced by these amounts.

However, what is more concerning is that once there is a bit more normality to the economy (i.e. no government eviction bans and covid payments) the job losses will come. It is extremely worrying what has already occurred in respect of job losses and salary cuts. The pandemic is raging on and likely to be be mixed up in flu season hysteria in a few months so perhaps we could see re-introductions of restrictions on off into next year. If things went back to close to normal by September/October, we wouldn't see housing data on the impact of covid until the post-June 2021 (i.e. Q2 reports due to the lag between unfreezing the economy and house transactions getting up and running again to be reflected in data), but potentially the way we are crawling through the pandemic, it could be Q3 and Q4 next year when we start to see the initial impacts on the housing market!

hometruths

Deub wrote: »

It should be tenants only. If the state uses taxpayer money, being landlord would become a risk free business.

I don't mean that the state should underwrite all tenants arrears - only in the covid eviction ban scenario.

i.e tenants have stopped paying in part because of knowledge that they are safe from eviction thanks to government policy.

If government policy stops landlords ability to collect those arrears then it that case it should be taxpayer that pays the bill.

Assetbacked

schmittel wrote: »

Property investment is speculative because of various future risks such as long vacancy periods, property damage, capital losses etc.

In the case we are talking about the landlord has already provided the service in good faith - i.e these are historical arrears.

The sure they can afford it attitude sets quite a dangerous precedent. What other services could such logic apply to? It could feasibly apply to any commercial transaction.

I have no problem with government deciding that richer people should pay to support poorer people, but the way to do that is raise taxes and then pick up these sort of costs collectively.

To simply tell individuals, tough sh*t, suck it up, sure you can afford it, will create many more problems than it solves.

Be careful what you wish for to quote Bass Reeves et al.

It is the landlord or the tenant who has no savings and precarious employment who would be on the hook for the arrears otherwise. It is effectively one group over the other. That bit in bold above is the outcome on whoever has to suck it up - my point is that the government, when they introduced these laws, knew they would be shafting the landlords as there is no way the arrears will be paid by a good faith tenant who accrued arrears due to their precarious financial state caused by covid.

brisan

Assetbacked wrote: »

My point was just that the headline was misleading. But that data on house prices falling or stalling is pre-covid impact so the trend was for a slight correction/downward trend. I think 15-20% drops aren't actually big if in 2 years they gradually reduced by these amounts.

However, what is more concerning is that once there is a bit more normality to the economy (i.e. no government eviction bans and covid payments) the job losses will come. It is extremely worrying what has already occurred in respect of job losses and salary cuts. The pandemic is raging on and likely to be be mixed up in flu season hysteria in a few months so perhaps we could see re-introductions of restrictions on off into next year. If things went back to close to normal by September/October, we wouldn't see housing data on the impact of covid until the post-June 2021 (i.e. Q2 reports due to the lag between unfreezing the economy and house transactions getting up and running again to be reflected in data), but potentially the way we are crawling through the pandemic, it could be Q3 and Q4 next year when we start to see the initial impacts on the housing market!

If the covid payments stop in Sept -October and job looses happen straight away (which I believe they will ) we may see it earlier than that .
One small example
My local has 12 full time employees ( 8 barmen and 4 in the food section ) plus numerous part timers
All are on a covid payment of one type or another .
When these stop ,and business at less than 50% than a lot of layoffs are in the pipeline and the staff know this
The Airline industry ,the Aviation Leasing industry, the tourist sector ,the hotel and bar trade,the restaurant business and high street retail are all on their knees
Covid payments are stopping them from going under .
They stop and we will see major job losses .
We will follow the same path as Britain and the states