Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Pelezico

schmittel wrote: »

There’s been a lot of chat about it recently, but in the context of house prices the future of our 12.5% rate and how it applies to MNCs is significant.

Worst case scenario some Eu directive outlaws it and they upsticks and leave 10s of thousands jobless. That won’t help house prices.

Certainly a relevant discussion in my opinion.

My hole...it has been within that context. Set up another thread about the subject. This is about house prices. I certainly dont need context.

Pelezico

schmittel wrote: »

I suspect none of it, as all parties concerned have bigger issues on their mind.

But it is certainly relevant on the day the EU appeal a court ruling saying our tax arrangements are in order.

And often in this thread long term considerations are discussed that might impact the value of a new build housing estate, like future planning permissions in the area or long term plans for public transport upgrAdes.

Or we often discuss the need to build 30k houses a year for the next decade with impunity.

Equally it seems to be an acceptable comment that prices will not fall in the short term because pharma and tech buyers are going gangbusters.

If I was a buyer in 2020 entering into a 30 year mortgage all these long term factors would be relevant to me.

But I sense you are saying it is irrelevant?

Why dont we discuss the presidential election or new supreme court judge? These are relevant in a very tangential way to the Irish property market.

Let it be a complete free for all.

hometruths

To bring it back to 2020, last month no less...

Banking and Payments federation say that last month’s mortgages represent highest share ever of FTBs.

The Banking and Payments Federation reports that 3,875 mortgages were taken out last month, 2,259 of them by people buying their first home.

Canary in a coal mine?

”I suppose demand is mostly on the first-time buyers because for second and subsequent buyers, there are other factors affecting them.”

i.e they’re not panic buying.

Pelezico

schmittel wrote: »

They’re tangential indeed.

But only an utter fool would suggest Ireland’s corporate tax rate and the jobs it supports was tangential to the Irish property market.

Though some might say the thread is a free for all for utter fools.

I don't want to read page after page about Apples effective rate of tax.

hometruths

Graham wrote: »

There should definitely be a thread to discuss the long-term implications of taxation on the Irish property market.

I'll see if I can split out some of the recent posts.....

Could you make it a Medium/Long term thread in general rather than just taxation?

So we can discuss macroeconomics, domestic and global trends affecting Irish property, generally and those arising from covid, demographic changes etc etc.

All of these factors seem to be a bit frowned upon here, but are actually pretty relevant to the property market.

Pelezico

schmittel wrote: »

Could you make it a Medium/Long term thread in general rather than just taxation?

So we can discuss macroeconomics, domestic and global trends affecting Irish property, generally and those arising from covid, demographic changes etc etc.

All of these factors seem to be a bit frowned upon here, but are actually pretty relevant to the property market.

Bet nobody contributes to this new thread after about a week.

hometruths

Pelezico wrote: »

Bet nobody contributes to this new thread after about a week.

Quite possibly. Which is why personally I think these things are more suited to this thread which is a general property market thread, albeit one labelled 2020, but it seems we cannot discuss them here.

Pelezico

schmittel wrote: »

Quite possibly. Which is why personally I think these things are more suited to this thread which is a general property market thread, albeit one labelled 2020, but it seems we cannot discuss them here.

Endless self indulgence about Apple with loads of commentators trying to be clever cats spoils the thread.
Give me neutral guy every time.

hometruths

Pelezico wrote: »

Endless self indulgence about Apple with loads of commentators trying to be clever cats spoils the thread.
Give me neutral guy every time.

I missed the self indulgence about Apple, but I'd agree Apple's tax affairs alone will not make a thread. Which is why I asked for it to be broadened.

I think we're in agreement here.

alias no.9

PropQueries wrote: »

Remember, one of the many acts by Michael Noonan to get the market moving last time was to basically ban bedsits. Basically he threw the bottom 1% of the population under the proverbial bus in "their" interest.

Banning bedsits without a plan for the tenants to access affordable alternative accommodation was a huge factor in our recent housing shortage but it was the FF/Green coalition who changed the regulations with a 4 year notice period.

jill_valentine

PropQueries wrote: »

Ok, with AirBnB effectively gone (reported at c.5,000 houses and apartments in Co. Dublin pre-covid) and the demand for student accommodation must also be well down.

Why haven't rents/prices of properties in Dublin and other major cities in Ireland dropped yet? But, it has been a short period of time.

Landlords won't dip below their established rents until they have absolutely no choice because it affects what they can charge in future, they're holding out in the face of that reality as long as possible.

A big factor, additionally, is that up until literally today students were still being told they would be required to attend part of their courses in person. It's likely deposits and rent have already changed hands for the first month at least in a lot of cases. 1-2 months time could be a cold shower for that particular sector, after a summer of no AirBnB's and starting a winter of no students.

Balluba

Pelezico wrote: »

Endless self indulgence about Apple with loads of commentators trying to be clever cats spoils the thread.
Give me neutral guy every time.

Yes bring back neutral guy

OwlsZat

Pelezico wrote: »

Rents are not falling because that will have implications for their ability to rise again.

So rents will remain static but watch vacancy rates soar.

That's all fine while the Government force mortgage holidays. Obviously, its completely against free market economics and erodes bank profits at a time the banks are struggling and cutting jobs. Theres also a problem where lots receiving the holidays were already previously in long term arrears.

Browney7

schmittel wrote: »

To bring it back to 2020, last month no less...

Banking and Payments federation say that last month’s mortgages represent highest share ever of FTBs.



Canary in a coal mine?



i.e they’re not panic buying.

I briefly heard this on the radio that FTBs made up a large portion of the August sales. My first thoughts were the "dumb" money so to speak is all that's left and the smart money is sitting on the sidelines.

Browney7

jill_valentine wrote: »

Landlords won't dip below their established rents until they have absolutely no choice because it affects what they can charge in future, they're holding out in the face of that reality as long as possible.

A big factor, additionally, is that up until literally today students were still being told they would be required to attend part of their courses in person. It's likely deposits and rent have already changed hands for the first month at least in a lot of cases. 1-2 months time could be a cold shower for that particular sector, after a summer of no AirBnB's and starting a winter of no students.

The rents are an interesting one, a newly launched development in D15 launched 1, 2 and 3 beds at prices of 1750, 2250 and 2450. By the end of the week the 2 beds advertised rate dropped to 2025. These are advertised rates of course so unknown what these will actually go for in the end

Pelezico

This downturn is beautiful. The last suckers are coming in.

Smouse156

jill_valentine wrote: »

Landlords won't dip below their established rents until they have absolutely no choice because it affects what they can charge in future, they're holding out in the face of that reality as long as possible.

A big factor, additionally, is that up until literally today students were still being told they would be required to attend part of their courses in person. It's likely deposits and rent have already changed hands for the first month at least in a lot of cases. 1-2 months time could be a cold shower for that particular sector, after a summer of no AirBnB's and starting a winter of no students.

Well those that don’t drop will get zero for a long time to come. Even a short while at zero is worse than dropping the rent long term. Unless they are looking to sell, it’s complete stupidity to have properties vacant since March. They have lost way more than they would have over the next 5 years if they are looking to generate cash.

It is kinda like the people in 2008 wouldn’t accept that property was going to fall, holding out for the 2007 price and they haven’t seen the 2007 price to date!

The Belly

One lockdown after another coming. Don't know whats going on with the 3rd level sector but between that and zero tourism prices won't hold firm for very long in the rental sector.

Pelezico

The Belly wrote: »

One lockdown after another coming. Don't know whats going on with the 3rd level sector but between that and zero tourism prices won't hold firm for very long in the rental sector.

It really is getting to be quite beautiful.

The Belly

Pelezico wrote: »

It really is getting to be quite beautiful.

Don't know about beautiful but it's not going to be pretty.

Marius34

Browney7 wrote: »

I briefly heard this on the radio that FTBs made up a large portion of the August sales. My first thoughts were the "dumb" money so to speak is all that's left and the smart money is sitting on the sidelines.

That should be Mortgage approvals, I don't think there is information on Mortgage drawdowns for August.

PommieBast

PropQueries wrote: »

But I do agree with you that it's not a discussion until that date: REMEMBER - 6p.m. on the 13th October will be very very interesting here and as sad as my life appears to be, I'm actually looking forward to seeing and debating the discussion on here...

Are they going to have anti-riot barriers like they put up in 2013 and 2014?

The Belly

PommieBast wrote: »

Are they going to have anti-riot barriers like they put up in 2013 and 2014?

If we are talking about the budget it will be kicking the can down the road a lot of nothing and talk of investments in different sectors. Property wise if they want to save a major fall expect some incentives to get cash out of savings and into property. CGT breaks etc.

Graham

Mod Note

Some posts split to

Medium & Long Term Property Market Chat

Dunston

PropQueries wrote: »

I'd believe that many of the smaller developers are holding out for the budget to see if there's anything in it to keep prices steady. If there's not, I would predict many will start following Glenveagh's lead and start dropping their advertised prices very significantly just to get their money back at least, never mind a profit.

Even if there is, it will be a stop-gap measure. If they did increase the help-to-buy to €85k as the developers are lobbying for, that measure would be removed within two years (due to budget constraints) and the prices would drop anyway. Will potential buyers realise this and hold out? Some obviously will want/ need to still buy but I would reckon professional investors would be very wary of such incentives.

Would be good for first time buyers if investors did show less interest though.

Developers are lobbying for €85k HTB? Any source for this?

Pelezico

Dunston wrote: »

Developers are lobbying for €85k HTB? Any source for this?

Wow...things must be even worse than I thought.

PropQueries

Dunston wrote: »

Developers are lobbying for €85k HTB? Any source for this?

In the Irish Independent three weeks ago: “ Builders propose €85k loan boost for first-time buyers”

Link to article here: https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/builders-propose-85k-loan-boost-for-first-time-buyers-39506685.html

Basically It appears they want the taxpayer to pay for the majority of the build cost for the house and they walk away with the profit.

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

In the Irish Independent three weeks ago: “ Builders propose €85k loan boost for first-time buyers”

Link to article here: https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/builders-propose-85k-loan-boost-for-first-time-buyers-39506685.html

Basically It appears they want the taxpayer to pay for the majority of the build cost for the house and they walk away with the profit.

Seems quite sensible to me.

Beigepaint

Pelezico wrote: »

Seems quite sensible to me.

If the rob is on... get your steal in or lose out!

Pelezico

Beigepaint wrote: »

If the rob is on... get your steal in or lose out!

Absolutely...this is not an outrage thread. Most posters are completely cynical.

rks

With my limited knowledge I think the prices are not coming down substantially till the rents comes down.

Whoever is paying €2000 for a 2 bed in rent will always want to buy if they can afford and get a mortgage.

Claw Hammer

cubatahavana wrote: »

Now, as a Spanish man myself, and having lived in apartments my whole life, we may have a different view of what constitutes a good garden. For me 80-90sqm and south-west or south-east is enough

What would you expect to be asked for that in Mount Merrion?

drogon.

Anyone see this ?

https://kclr96fm.com/queue-expected-outside-carlow-auctioneers-tonight-before-tomorrows-house-sale/

Pelezico

drogon. wrote: »

Anyone see this ?

https://kclr96fm.com/queue-expected-outside-carlow-auctioneers-tonight-before-tomorrows-house-sale/

Houses will be ....snapped up. I love the use of language.

PropQueries

Pelezico wrote: »

Houses will be ....snapped up. I love the use of language.

That means they should ALL be marked as sale agreed tomorrow. If not...

Bass Reeves

Pelezico wrote: »

Houses will be ....snapped up. I love the use of language.

Maybe not snapped up but if you are no 1-10 in the que you choice is to buy or not to buy. If you decide to play hard ball and there is another 20-30 in the que are you willing to risk losing out.

PropQueries wrote: »

That means they should ALL be marked as sale agreed tomorrow. If not...

Maybe maybe not. But say only 15 of the houses go sale agreed tomorrow, a buyer still has a choice to throw up the sale. However again like above would a buyer be willing to walk away know that maybe 15 have gone to contract.

Snapped up is relative to you need for a house or renting for another 3-5 years

MacronvFrugals

46 Eglinton Road, Dublin 4

⇩ 20.4% €1.25M ⇨ €995K - thats a fair hit all the same

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/eglinton-lodge-46-eglinton-road-dublin-4-dublin/4447824

Smouse156

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Maybe not snapped up but if you are no 1-10 in the que you choice is to buy or not to buy. If you decide to play hard ball and there is another 20-30 in the que are you willing to risk losing out.





Maybe maybe not. But say only 15 of the houses go sale agreed tomorrow, a buyer still has a choice to throw up the sale. However again like above would a buyer be willing to walk away know that maybe 15 have gone to contract.

Snapped up is relative to you need for a house or renting for another 3-5 years

There is not many new build estates in Carlow. They cost 237k - 330k. They all qualify for “Help The Brickie”. The most expensive house will only require €3k for the deposit, the cheaper ones will be fully covered by Help The Brickie (assuming they’ve paid enough tax). I think they’ll all be gone tomorrow or shortly after.

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

In the Irish Independent three weeks ago: “ Builders propose €85k loan boost for first-time buyers”

Link to article here: https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/builders-propose-85k-loan-boost-for-first-time-buyers-39506685.html

Basically It appears they want the taxpayer to pay for the majority of the build cost for the house and they walk away with the profit.

Imagine the mental gymnastics it took for the industry to devise a scheme to keep on propping up unsustainable house prices

KnowingWind

It seems pretty likely we are about to see a big downturn in prices.
I can see investor class jumping off property....but who knows.

The Belly

KnowingWind wrote: »

It seems pretty likely we are about to see a big downturn in prices.
I can see investor class jumping off property....but who knows.

It a tough one to call as interest rates are so low and markets are super risky. If things get particularly bad you will probably see cash move to deposits and the post office and a wait and see game.

Again this will depend on the banks status the Uslter bank stuff will do nothing for confidence.

Back in the day parents would buy a rental for kids to go to uni to save on the rent but that's not viable now either.

I still expect the gov to do some kind of property investment incentive come the budget.

smellyoldboot

Can't come soon enough. The insanity and quite frankly depraved greed of thinking upward only price changes fueled by never ending government subsidies is anyway normal or sustainable needs to die , hard, fast and forever.

Let whoever gets their fingers burnt, burn.

Cyrus

smellyoldboot wrote: »

Can't come soon enough. The insanity and quite frankly depraved greed of thinking upward only price changes fueled by never ending government subsidies is anyway normal or sustainable needs to die , hard, fast and forever.

Let whoever gets their fingers burnt, burn.

The only depraved greed I’ve seen in this thread is the recession cheerleaders to be honest, how anyone could a) be happy about this and b) assume they will be unaffected and able to buy the house they want is beyond me.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

The only depraved greed I’ve seen in this thread is the recession cheerleaders to be honest, how anyone could a) be happy about this and b) assume they will be unaffected and able to buy the house they want is beyond me.

a) they want to buy a cheaper house
b) they are cash rich or in secure employment

Seems fairly straightforward to me

Bubbaclaus

I put a booking deposit down on a house this week. Looking forward to being told how much of an idiot I am

The Belly

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

I put a booking deposit down on a house this week. Looking forward to being told how much of an idiot I am

Buy away and good luck:) It's your money and if its what you want go for it.

drogon.

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

I put a booking deposit down on a house this week. Looking forward to being told how much of an idiot I am

Honestly the way I look at it, if the bank is willing to lend to you now, take the opportunity and borrow it. Mortgage will most likely save you a good chunk of money rather than renting in the current market.

If **** hits the fan as some suggest here, people really need cash to buy as the bank won’t be very generous and even in that case you still need a house to live in

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

a) they want to buy a cheaper house
b) they are cash rich or in secure employment

Seems fairly straightforward to me

C) they are bitter and jealous of others
D) they are just miserable in general and use board to convey their miserable outlook onto others

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

C) they are bitter and jealous of others
D) they are just miserable in general and use board to convey their miserable outlook onto others

This sounds like it came from the Fianna Fail Ard Fheis in 2007

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

This sounds like it came from the Fianna Fail Ard Fheis in 2007

I’m not wrong though. Some seriously miserable people around.

What is an ard fheis?